Go Back   Alternate History Discussion Board > Discussion > Alternate History Discussion: After 1900

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old December 2nd, 2006, 07:52 PM
Berra Berra is offline
Friendly Pitchfork Operator
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 1000 or more
China wins the Sino–Vietnamese War

What if China wins the Sino–Vietnamese War. How would Soviet react. Will they be bogged down in a guerilla war.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Vietnamese_War
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ynnead View Post
Did they hijack those too?
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old December 2nd, 2006, 09:34 PM
NFR NFR is offline
Kanadskiy Namestnik
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Kanadskaya Oblast
Posts: 778
Quote:
Originally Posted by Berra View Post
What if China wins the Sino–Vietnamese War. How would Soviet react. Will they be bogged down in a guerilla war.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Vietnamese_War
Define 'win'. They already think they won, and that they achieved the strategic objective of showing us up. They may be half-lying, since withdrawal from Cambodia was probably desired, too, and wasn't achieved, but they certainly achieved part of the objective.

But at no point was there ever any intention of annexing any territory, so guerilla warfare is hardly relevant. As to how we might react to them, say, successfully forcing a withdrawal of Vietnamese forces from Cambodia by inflicting severe and crippling loses on the VPA... probably nothing. We are not about to start a war with China over Vietnam, that was amply clear in the real world. The Americans were involved, too. They had an aircraft carriers 'on exercise' in the Gulf of Tonkin throughout much of that period.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old December 3rd, 2006, 03:02 PM
Berra Berra is offline
Friendly Pitchfork Operator
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 1000 or more
They takes Hanoi for the sake of argument.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ynnead View Post
Did they hijack those too?
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old December 3rd, 2006, 03:16 PM
ninebucks ninebucks is offline
Banned
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Blighty
Posts: 1000 or more
Quote:
Originally Posted by Berra View Post
They takes Hanoi for the sake of argument.
The Chinese had no reason or desire to occupy Vietnam, if any invasion did reach Hanoi it would simply be China flexing their muscles and sending the signal that Vietnam needs to keep in line.

On the way out China would probably oppurtunistically grad a few dozen square kilometres of land along the border, not for any strategic purposes, just to show that they can.

I doubt this would be something the rest of the world would make an issue about. The USA was thoroughly fed up of Vietnam, and it would have taken something a lot worse for American troops to return.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old December 3rd, 2006, 04:06 PM
Berra Berra is offline
Friendly Pitchfork Operator
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 1000 or more
The rest of the world don't equal the US in this case. The main player is Soviet since the US 'must' stay out.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ynnead View Post
Did they hijack those too?
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old December 3rd, 2006, 06:15 PM
NFR NFR is offline
Kanadskiy Namestnik
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Kanadskaya Oblast
Posts: 778
Quote:
Originally Posted by Berra View Post
The rest of the world don't equal the US in this case. The main player is Soviet since the US 'must' stay out.
This is the cold war. We can't go in and expect the USA to 'stay out'. That is one of the considerations why we didn't go in. That and the fact that invading China would be an utter nightmare. Besides, the USA is already in, didn't you see what I typed?

Your definition of victory is odd, to say the least. Very few modern wars have objectives such as 'taking and holding city X'. This isn't a game of chess. They have strategic objectives limited by geopolitical and military realities. Why would China desire to occupy Hanoi as a strategic objective? Do they intend to destroy Vietnam's functioning government? A symbolic victory over Vietnam? Force a withdrawal from Cambodia by negotiating from a position of strength? Demonstrate your willingness to attack? Force Vietnam to reconsider their alliance with us? Each of these would entail a different requirement to 'taking of Hanoi'.

I don't think you have really thought this through.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old December 4th, 2006, 03:33 AM
Paul Spring Paul Spring is offline
should avoid chat, but doesn't
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Massachusetts
Posts: 1000 or more
Quote:
Originally Posted by NFR View Post
This is the cold war. We can't go in and expect the USA to 'stay out'. That is one of the considerations why we didn't go in. That and the fact that invading China would be an utter nightmare. Besides, the USA is already in, didn't you see what I typed?
In 1979 US public opinion would almost certainly not have allowed the US to get involved in any serious fighting in Vietnam for any reason. Memories of the war were still pretty recent and pretty raw.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old December 5th, 2006, 02:10 PM
Berra Berra is offline
Friendly Pitchfork Operator
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 1000 or more
The US was long out by -79. Taking a city or more importantly the enemy capital is not a bad war goal.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ynnead View Post
Did they hijack those too?
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old December 5th, 2006, 03:03 PM
Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy is offline
Banned
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Patarlagele/Bucharest, Romania
Posts: 1000 or more
Send a message via Yahoo to Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy
Quote:
Originally Posted by ninebucks View Post
The USA was thoroughly fed up of Vietnam, and it would have taken something a lot worse for American troops to return.
China was a American quasi-ally, so their victory would be in Washington's interest, not against it.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old December 5th, 2006, 04:10 PM
Subodai's Lighting Subodai's Lighting is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 6
If the Chinese captured Hanoi, I am not sure of what they would do with it afterwards? Perhaps, it would begin to irritate Beijing as to constantly hearing the complaints of the Vientnamese to the south all the time.

So the Chinese win, but the aftermath may not be worth such a victory.
Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old December 5th, 2006, 08:34 PM
At-Bari At-Bari is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 264
USA for sure wouldn't share any tears for the communist government in Vietnam and Soviet had all the troubles with Afghanistan already. So if China won they could do whatever they wanted, without any outsider interfere. The vietnamese of course could try to fight back even if the regular army is defeated...
__________________
Montgomery Burns: Yes, I'd like to send this letter to the Prussian consulate in Siam by aeromail. Am I too late for the 4:30 autogyro?
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old December 6th, 2006, 12:09 AM
PaleHorseRiding PaleHorseRiding is offline
Banned
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 491
It might just be interesting enough if they took over all of Vietnam when they were oppresing and killing ethnic chinese. they could annex it Nice oil resources in the spratlys this would change subsequent world history alot
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old December 6th, 2006, 04:21 AM
Wendell Wendell is offline
Wendell
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Lost in what might have been
Posts: 1000 or more
What do the Russians do, now that it seems that the Chinese will be exerting themselves ITTL?
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old December 6th, 2006, 02:31 PM
Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy is offline
Banned
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Patarlagele/Bucharest, Romania
Posts: 1000 or more
Send a message via Yahoo to Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaleHorseRiding View Post
It might just be interesting enough if they took over all of Vietnam when they were oppresing and killing ethnic chinese. they could annex it Nice oil resources in the spratlys this would change subsequent world history alot
The resulting guerrilla warfare and bad image would not be worth it. Far easier to just install a puppet government and have them drop the claim to the Spratlys. Any resources Vietnam has and China wants can be obtained in a forced treaty.
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old December 6th, 2006, 07:45 PM
Tielhard Tielhard is offline
Banned
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 1000 or more
I agree with the posters asking "what do you mean by win?" and I think taking Hanoi is a pretty questionable war aim. I suggest what the Chinese wanted to achieve was 1) To keep Vietnam "in its place" and 2) To get them out of Cambodia. It may have succeeded in the former but failed in the latter. If the Chinese did "win" I would suggest it means getting the Vietnamese out of Cambodia in which case even more people are going to die of Pol Pot and Co..

Militarily the war was a disaster for the Chinese by the time they began to withdraw thier front line units were begining to disintegrate as the troops had not been fed or watered for several days and had almost no ammunition. The Chinese logistics were completely inadiquate for the task before them.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT. The time now is 12:01 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.