US "Hands off" cold war strategy

This may not be very likely, but what if the US adopted a different approach in its relation to so-called "third world" countries during the Cold War? Suppose that as the Cold War begins, US strategists believe that American intervention against communist or other left-leaning regimes will only increase hostility towards the US. They therefore decide to continue and expand the "good neighbor" policy of the 1930s. The main principles of US policy would be:

- The US would not support coups of any kind, and would generally remain neutral in regards to internal political disputes

- The US would only send troops to a country if they had a direct agreement with a country that was blatantly invaded (such as South Korea), or in certain extreme cases where US citizens were in danger and needed to be evacuated.

- In providing economic aid, the US would generally favor elected governments of any political stripe, even if they were communist or pro-communist, and spurn unelected governments of whatever political affiliation.

- The US would not give any aid, overt or covert, to colonial powers.

The justification for this strategy would be based on two fundamental beliefs:

1. Capitalism is an inherently superior economic system. In time, any country with a centrally planned command economy will become at best stagnant and at worst a total disaster.

2. People in other countries must learn for themselves that communism doesn't work. Staging armed interventions and propping up corrupt regimes only allows communist to wrap themselves in the mantle of resisting oppression. Let communists take power in any country, and sooner or later they will thoroughly discredit themselves, and in the long run this will be a more effective weapon against communism than any US intervention.

What might the cold war have been like if the US had followed such a strategy? Could it have made things better for the US, or would it have simply been a disaster that encouraged communist governments to spring up everywhere and leave the US isolated?
 
An interesting proposal for sure.

The US was viciously anti-communist after WWII because the Russians were who they were up against. The problem here is that the Soviets would give massive backing to Marxist governments and rebel groups. Result of that is of ocurse a heckuva lot of problems for capitalist governments unless the US continued to design Marshall Plans, after Europe move on to South America and then eventually Africa. That could have had a better world as a result, but I do wonder if that would work.
 
Would the plan being proposed in the first post of this thread include Latin America in that "hands off" policy?:confused:
 
Probably not.... The Americas where considered as the USA's field of protection (in all senses of the word) due to the Munroe Doctrine...
 
Would the plan being proposed in the first post of this thread include Latin America in that "hands off" policy?:confused:

Yes. The "good neighbor" policy was originally meant to be applied to Latin America - here it would be expanded to include virtually all of the "Third World" or "developing world" - ie, the less industrialized countries.
 
Yes. The "good neighbor" policy was originally meant to be applied to Latin America - here it would be expanded to include virtually all of the "Third World" or "developing world" - ie, the less industrialized countries.

I was think more of covert ops. Before the establishment of the CIA in 1947 (IIRC the year), the FBI operated field offices throughout Latin America.
 
I see two affects... first, the USSR will be able to expand it's influence once it realizes the US's policy; they'll be able to act a lot more openly. Second, this might actually backfire on them and stress their economy even more... nations like Cuba and N. Korea cost the USSR billions in support every year... having more nations in their orbit (all under the classic communist inefficiency) would only deepen this problem.
 
I see two affects... first, the USSR will be able to expand it's influence once it realizes the US's policy; they'll be able to act a lot more openly. Second, this might actually backfire on them and stress their economy even more... nations like Cuba and N. Korea cost the USSR billions in support every year... having more nations in their orbit (all under the classic communist inefficiency) would only deepen this problem.


The second point would be kind of the crux of the whole strategy - let the soviets expend their economic and military resources supporting poor regimes around the world. Let them be the ones that the rest of the world comes to revile as imperialists.
 
how would supporting third war countires make you imperialist? every imperialist country has domianated third war countires, you saying that if you support the same third world countries, You are imperialist? I like this timeline for it, for as I support communism, I am glad that they will be more communist countries.
 
how would supporting third war countires make you imperialist? every imperialist country has domianated third war countires, you saying that if you support the same third world countries, You are imperialist? I like this timeline for it, for as I support communism, I am glad that they will be more communist countries.

In our timeline, the US was seen as imperialist because it supported unpopular right-wing dictatorships in a number of different countries. This allowed the communists to play the popular role of national liberators, even though they were just as brutal and dictatorial (often more so) than the right wingers. In this timeline, communist dictatorships would come to power in many more countries, with Soviet support, but their dictatorship and economic inefficiency would make them less and less popular over time in most places. Since the Soviets supported them, the Soviets would be burdened with the economic and military cost of supporting increasingly unpopular governments, and with the moral burden of being perceived as imperialist because they supported dictatorships around the world.
 
The U.S. could certainly let the Soviets waste their time and resources in the Third World, but certain strategic positions cannot be given over to the Russians. Greece and Turkey for one have to be kept on board to keep the Russians out of the Med, so all those funny things the CIA did to rig elections and such would still be necessary. Letting the Russians get a foothold in the Americas would also be bad for American power projection and safety, Cuba has been a thorn in the U.S. side for decades, and it would have been much better to have crushed Castro early. The same goes for much of the Americas. Only in Korea and Vietnam and some places in Africa did the U.S. intervene but didn't really need to.
 
Well, of course, that'd definitely mean less heartache in places like Iran (after the 1954 coup against Mossadegh, followed by SAVAK) and Chile (after Allende overthrown 1973, followed by Pinochet and Op CONDOR thruout the South American cone, incl Argentina's 'Dirty War')
 
The U.S. could certainly let the Soviets waste their time and resources in the Third World, but certain strategic positions cannot be given over to the Russians. Greece and Turkey for one have to be kept on board to keep the Russians out of the Med, so all those funny things the CIA did to rig elections and such would still be necessary. Letting the Russians get a foothold in the Americas would also be bad for American power projection and safety, Cuba has been a thorn in the U.S. side for decades, and it would have been much better to have crushed Castro early. The same goes for much of the Americas. Only in Korea and Vietnam and some places in Africa did the U.S. intervene but didn't really need to.

Would it really hurt the US that much to have a few countries in the Western Hemisphere friendly with the Soviets? They would probably still trade a lot with the US, since the US has a lot more to offer than the Soviet Union. If the Soviets sent troops to back their client regimes without any serious US threat, it would just reveal more clearly that the Soviets were the real empire-builders.

A few key countries could get US support, especially if they were directly attacked or clearly threatened with attack by the Soviet Union or its allies.
 
Would it really hurt the US that much to have a few countries in the Western Hemisphere friendly with the Soviets? They would probably still trade a lot with the US, since the US has a lot more to offer than the Soviet Union. If the Soviets sent troops to back their client regimes without any serious US threat, it would just reveal more clearly that the Soviets were the real empire-builders.

A few key countries could get US support, especially if they were directly attacked or clearly threatened with attack by the Soviet Union or its allies.

Yes it would. Cuba very much could have been (and briefly was) a Soviet dagger pointed at the neck of the United States.
 
I'm sorry, but Castro didn't want those missiles.... I think the danger represented by Castro was exagerated. Untill the soviets brought the missiles, it was just a local dictature, albeit close and red. Just that.


Communist do not means at the service of Moscow.... Just look at China and Yugoslavia.
 
I'm sorry, but Castro didn't want those missiles.... I think the danger represented by Castro was exagerated. Untill the soviets brought the missiles, it was just a local dictature, albeit close and red. Just that.


Communist do not means at the service of Moscow.... Just look at China and Yugoslavia.

true, but Castro was pretty much at the beck and call of Moscow. The US was in the right to nix all trade with him during the cold war, but once it ended, we should have made overtures to Cuba... as I saw it, we should have offered to normalize trade with Cuba in return for them pulling all their trouble making troops out of Africa and other places around the world... IMO, nothing would bring down Castro faster than giving Cubans a taste of the good life of some capitalism....
 
I think a decent POD would revolve around Franklin Roosevelt picking a different Veep other than Wallace in 1940. Let's go with Harry Truman for now...perhaps an earlier POD is that Truman brings himself to Roosevelt's attention earlier by exposing waste and accumulated fraud in the government during the last days of the New Deal.

As Veep from 1941 to Roosevelt's death in 1945, Truman is kept informed of the geopolitical situation by Roosevelt (IOTL, Truman was out of the loop until Roosevelt died, and even after that, some things weren't clear). In 1945, Ho Chi Minh declares the independence of Vietnam from France, and requests American aid in insuring Vietnam's freedom.

Now, since Truman is fully aware of the funding and arms that went to the Vietemese guerillas to fight against the Japanese, and is fully aware that Ho is a nationalist before being a communist, Truman agrees to recognize the independence of Vietnam.

This causes quite a bit of anger from the French, but after being devastated through war and occupation, they're in no condition to do much else but protest.

Coupled with George F. Kennan's Long Telegram advocating "Containment" of Communism, Truman artiqulates the Truman Doctrine in 1949, just before the foundation of NATO. It states that the United States will seek to aid all democratic regimes in their fight to maintain independence. Truman also follows up on a Canadian suggestion that NATO act as an economic and cultural-exchange alliance as well as a military organization ( I forget where I found this...but I belive such a proposal did come from a member of the Canadian government during this time).

Vietnam, in the meantime, becomes a staunch American ally, an maintains a "Special Relationship" with the United States to the present day. The polar opposite is true for France, which is angered over the loss of Vietnam (and is quickly followed by the independence of Laos and Cambodia). But since their economy is still weak, the French still become one of the founding members of NATO in 1949.

1949 also sees the Soviet Union detonate its first atomic bomb, and mainland China fall to Mao Zedong's communists, with the nationalists fleeing to Taiwan.

Seeing how quickly a large chunk of Asia has gone communist, but mindful of the chance to create loyal allies like Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia, Truman decides to launch a redevelopment program for the exiled Republic of China, the nations of Indochina, the Philippines, South Korea, and Japan. All of these nations are invited into a new defensive economic, political, and (to a lesser extent) cultural pact with the USA. The Asia Pacific Military Organization (APMO) is ratified in early 1950 with the Treaty of Manila. Massive volumes of American reconstruction aid begin flowing east, as well as west. Both the NATO and AMPO nations begin to become closely tied to the United States economically, as trade barriers are slowly lowered between members. The North American Free Trade Treaty (NAFTT) between the United States and Canada in 1950 was the first of many such accords. The ANZUS free trade and military agreements between Australia, New Zealand, and the USA are signed in early 1951, just before the eruption of the Korean War. Both Australia and New Zealand join AMPO soon afterwards.

The creation of APMO alarms Joseph Stalin, who refuses to back North Korean dictator Kim Il Sung's manic plans to launch an invasion of South Korea. However, (showing the first major sign of the Beijing-Moscow Split), Mao Zedong agrees to support Kim in a proposed attack. But, mindful of the AMPO alliance, he urges caution.

Kim Il Sung, however, violates that suggestion by invading South Korea anyways...on June 1, 1951, North Korean troops surge southwards.

The new United Nations quickly passes a resolution condemning North Korea's actions, as Stalin bluntly denies the USSR's involvement. Mao is furious with Kim (mirroring Hitler's dismay of Mussolini's invasion of Greece back in 1941). However, like Hitler, Mao still agrees to come to Kim's rescue.

The Korean War continues until January 1953, with the Yalu River Accords. Under the terms of the Accords, the Yalu River will remain a De-militerized zone (DMZ). Mao's commitment to Kim was never too strong, and the fall of Pyongyang to Douglas MacArthur's forces (aided by a large AMPO task force). Truman was reelected in 1952 under the argument "Don't Change Horses in midstream." Dwight Eisenhower had refused to run in 1952 against Truman, making almost the same argument.

1953 sees the founding of the Warsaw Pact between the Soviet Union and its allies in Eastern Europe. However, Yugoslavia, under the utilitarian Marshall Tito, refuses to join. Stalin doesn't get the chance to press the issue though...he dies and is replaced by the rather belligerent Nikita Krutchev soon afterwards.

Thus, the 1950s dawn with the twin policies of Containment and Democratization on the rise in the West. And an always fearful Communist bloc, interested primarily in self-preservation (through the spread of their ideology).....in time, the term "bear trap" will get an entirely new meaning indeed.

Comments? Should I continue?
 
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You should continue. With how well ya did in the 'Zionist Uganda' TL, I'm already starting to get hooked here. :)
 
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