AH Challenge: Czechoslovakia wins

Is there any reasonably plausible scenario where Czechoslovakia fights alone and wins in 1938? Most of the reading I've done on the subject starts off by saying that Czechoslovakia had a reasonably strong military and some advantage in terrain, but then goes on to point out that any chance of success against Germany w/o France was, of course, nonexistent.

There's a chapter in More What If about the War of 1938 that gives some background on Czech fighting capabilities.

The Czechs did have a modern well equipped army thanks to their status as on of the Austro-Hungarian successor states, (the Bren gun started it's life in Czechslovakia) and they also had some formidible defences set up in front of the German border, with a second line around Prague. However in 1939, after the Anslauss, the Czech part of the country was surrounded by Germany on three sides, also while the Czechs themselves may have been capable soldiers they only made up 50% of the army the rest being Slovaks, Ruthenians and Germans, who may or may not have proved less than willing participants in a war. Another unknown is the quality of the Czechslovakian officer corps particularly in the face of people like Guderian and Manstien. And last but not least there were a lot more Germans than Czechslovakians.

The most likely scenario I can think of is that the German general staff sends a lot of its troops west as a precaution against France and Czechoslavakia's population as a whole stays loyal. You would just have to have a quiet majority of Sudetenland Germans who are loyal to the country. How likely this is I do not know.

After CS was occupid there was exercise in tkaing Sudet fortifications with airborne units. It went badlly. To impress higher ups they choose easy sector, removed some defences and launched demonstration to show how good paras were.

The question is can CS hold for some time. If Germans get bogged down, how long can they afford to push on? Soem forces would have to be sent west, then there is question of SU.

The fortifications were quite strong, but I read that they hadn't any (or not that many / not that strong ones) in the South, at the border to Austria. That made their situation more difficult after the Anschluss. Maybe if Poland would've helped them... at least the Wehrmacht would've got a bloody nose, I think.

If somehow Poland were made aware that they were next I think it could have made a big difference. Czechoslovkia had sophisticated military industry. Poland had population.

Also a saner Soviet leadership might have concluded that sending aid without strings to fight the Nazis was in their interests

Far from helping the Czechs, in OTL the Poles participated in the carve-up, taking the area around Teschen the day after the Germans took over in Sudetenland.

Good day
You know it is good to hear about one's country, but why always this?? It makes people cry.
Anyway. There was defense line aganist Austria (and Poland too) but was less priority than German line. But it was all unfinished. Officers were experienced from WWI, Hungarian War and Polish War. Army was based on French model (good proven model). I think that many Slovaks would fight, later in war they rebelled in Slovak National Uprising. Whole third of Ruthenians was for Czechoslovakia. Dzhugashivili did offer help, but how would they get there (Czechoslovakia did not border SU).
Howg I finished my talking.

Peter Cowan said:

Far from helping the Czechs, in OTL the Poles participated in the carve-up, taking the area around Teschen the day after the Germans took over in Sudetenland.

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It was worst kind of mistake: stupid and mean (on the other hand, Poland consider Teschen Silesia [land around Teschen] to be Polish land, stolen in 1918 by Czech).
Also, both countries dislike each other... but, well, there is something called "politics" and "diplomacy", to understand and find common goals and to break common mistrusts. If Poland and Czech negotiated a military pact, Germany would be in serious troubles: they had to attack Czech with full force, exposing its eastern border. Still, it would be possible for Poland to make some attacks on Eastern Prussia or main German teritory.

Derek: yes, we were aware. But for some unknown reasons, we weren't smart enough to made some pacts witch Czech. My tutor says, that such cases are due to lack of "alternate thinking"

Otis Tarda said:

It was worst kind of mistake: stupid and mean (on the other hand, Poland consider Teschen Silesia to be Polish land, stolen in 1918 by Czech).
Also, both countries dislike each other... but, well, there is something called "politics" and "diplomacy", to understand and find common goals and to break common mistrusts. If Poland and Czech negotiated a military pact, Germany would be in serious troubles: they had to attack Czech with full force, exposing its eastern border. Still, it would be possible for Poland to make some attacks on Eastern Prussia or main German teritory.

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And Czechs thought all Silesia is rightfully theirs, as well as Lusatia and we almost also got a Franz Josef's Land. And we have thought war over Teschen Duchy, and...

Poland's behavior was simply stupid from 1918 to the carve up in 1939. If an opportunity arose to provoke a neighbor, they grabbed it. During the negotiations at Versailles, Polonophiles like Charles Hughes were in increasing agony as Polish responses to increasingly angry questions bore a chilling sameness, always using the same excuses. Only French decisions prevented Poland from being much smaller than it was, and the price was that to border Poland was to be hostile. No exception.

20 years later Poland's decision to AID the carve up of Czechoslovakia defied common sense. They managed to remove the one nearby nation strong enough to aid them that was not openly planning an attack and effectively vindicated the inevitable German demands on Poland.

Gladi said:

You know it is good to hear about one's country, but why always this?? It makes people cry.

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The nations that made up the Western Allies (including the USA) should have a guilt complex when it comes to nations like Czechoslovakia and Poland. Our collective willingness to defend these fledgling nations was at best lackluster (Phoney war) or downright treacherous (Czech).

JimmyJimJam said:

The nations that made up the Western Allies (including the USA) should have a guilt complex when it comes to nations like Czechoslovakia and Poland. Our collective willingness to defend these fledgling nations was at best lackluster (Phoney war) or downright treacherous (Czech).

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The US made no promises about Poland or Czech it can't be considered trecherous in that regard. Stupidly not seeing what was going in Europe, yes but not trecherous.

I would say we should feel especially guilty over 1944 Poland rather than the Phony War.

Until Münich Czechoslovakia had an alliance with Romania and Yugoslavia, called the Little Entente. The alliance was turned against Germany and Hungary, who had ideas about gaining lost territories.

Alone and with Germany also including Austria the CS's can only hope for miracles. I understand why they acted like they did, let down by the entire world (I'll cry with you Gladi - the Danish government asked London in 1939 if help could be expected in case of German aggression, and the answer was no).

With Austria neutral, the CS's would have a fair chance, even if alone, to be "too expensive" for the Germans. If supported by the Romanians and Yugoslavians it begins to look funny, and if the Poles had been more wise in their diplomacy and sided too, I actually think Germany in 1938 better think of something else. The four powers could combined field more than 100 Divisions, or about the same as Germany in 1938. In airforces they combinded had close to 2000 planes vs. 2500 German, and the quality difference wasn't as big as later (no Bf 109E yet).

Regards

Steffen Redbeard

Bulgaroktonos said:

I would say we should feel especially guilty over 1944 Poland rather than the Phony War.

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I'm just thinking that the US helped to create Czechoslovakia after WWI, so we some obligation to help her out.

NapoleonXIV said:

Is there any reasonably plausible scenario where Czechoslovakia fights alone and wins in 1938? Most of the reading I've done on the subject starts off by saying that Czechoslovakia had a reasonably strong military and some advantage in terrain, but then goes on to point out that any chance of success against Germany w/o France was, of course, nonexistent.

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It is safe to say that this is a critical requirement.

HTG (making a blatant plug)