WI Blucher killed before the Battle of Waterloo?

At Ligny, Napoleon defeated the Prussians, who withdrew but, under the leadership of Blucher, rallied and were able to join with Wellington in defeating Napoleon.

There was a moment, however, when Blucher was nearly killed; his horse was shot out from under him and collapsed on top of him, and Prussian and French forces passed him by. He was finally assisted by Prussian troops, and rubbed himself with gin before returning to the fight to save the day.

What if he couldn't?

Say, the horse falls on the old man (who was in his 80s) and, as anyone would expect, Blucher dies. Without his experience and his passion for defeating Napoleon (both of which contributed to his nickname, "Vorwartz" Blucher), the Prussians would almost certainly be absent when Napoleon engaged the British (even if they don't flee the field entirely, they would require, say, at least another day to get themselves ready, since Blucher simply had thrust them forward).

Napoleon thus annihilates the British, and his nemesis, the Duke of Wellington, is killed by an artillery shell. When the Prussians again approach, it is to face a tired, but victorious, and still very strong, French army, and they retreat when the French begin to again inflict heavy losses.

What now? The Russian and Austrian armies are approaching, but the only two people to have stymied Napoleon (Wellington and Blucher) are both dead, and Britain has finally felt the teeth of Napoleon. And, uncharacteristically, let's say Napoleon again sues for peace, without demanding some grand embarassment from Britain and Prussia, saying that he simply wants to heal his nation.

Blücher was not the actual leader of the Prussian Army, but more a symbol which could rally the solidiers and inflict the right patriotic spirit. The real leader was his very competent chief of staff Gneisenau, and before that Scharnhorst (fell in spring campaign 1813) had been the main person behind the rebuilding of the Prussian Army after the 1806-7 disaster. Blücher dying before the 1813 campaigns would probably be troublesome (but not more) for creating the right spirit and determination in the Prussian Army, but at this time I don't think it has any consequences - Gneisenau will lead the Prussians as competent as always.

I don't think Napoleon will have chances before pigs fly and hell freezes over to reach an agreement with the allies. They have some 400.000 well trained and equipped men approaching his less than 100.000, and they have been mercilessly fighting him for so long and in much more difficult situations that it would be really strange if they quit now.

Earlier Napoleon could count on superior tactics and operational capacity, but by 1815 that superiority was long gone. The French appeared pale and the Allies had tremendously improved. At Waterloo Napoleon had little more than 70.000 men, and after some bloody battles and forced marches he risks being outnumbered by even his once minor ally Bavaria, who in the summer of 1815 had 50.000 well trained and equipped men crossing the borders to France together with some 150.000 Austrians. Simultaneously Russians and small state Germans in similar numbers were also closing. So Wellington and Blücher were really the smallest barrirers, the big ones were yet to be met!

Napoleon was defeated in October 1813, everything after that was just dragging out the pain.

Regards

Steffen Redbeard

You are wrong if the Prussians were totaly crushed at Ligny and Blucher Killed then any remaining Prussian troops would withdraw to Germany. This would leave Wellington up the creek without a paddle. The Distruction of the Anglo -Dutch amry would probably cause a great deal of trouble. The Beligian units would defect to the French and it is possible that some of the smaller German states would do the same. In fact Britain was war weary and most of its army had been demoblized.

This has to be the most frightening case of thread resurrection I have ever encountered.

Two thousand and four! Good Lord, that's one from the depths. But terrifying? Ah, I see the name of the thread starter. I understand, 'Astings, the leetle grey cells, you see!

Barring that though, Napoleon wouldn't have crushed the Allied Army because Wellington would have withdrawn it from the Continent to avoid disaster. The Army could have returned at a later date to attack the French forces and aid the other Allies.

It is highly unlikely that the Dutch, Belgian and smaller german state troops would have left with Wellington. Indeed since these forces made up the Bulk of the Anglo-Dutch Army it might have resulted in a major defection of Forces to Napoleon.

Considering that the bulk at the forces who fought at Waterloo did so with great tenacity. I find the idea of them defecting at the drop of a hat to be dubious at best.

To be honest the Belgian were not that happy about this war. If Wellington was defeated or bugged out they would have defected!!!

I'm taking it that you have a source for that claim. Many troops were unhappy with their lot but that doesn't mean they'd defect. If the Belgian were so unhappy, why didn't they defect before the battle?

Even if Napoleon should win at Waterloo ITTL, it's very improbable that he can turn the tides.

Best of hope would be to inflict so great a lose on the Allies that they would be willing to make a deal with Napoleon.

Unlikely, after the Battle of Nations, everone had had enough of Napoleon as evidenced by the 1814 campaign. Despite some great victories against them, the Allies were determined to finish off Napoleon once and for all. The truth would have stayed the same in 1815.

As long as we are killing off the heads of both the Prussian and Anglo-Dutch armies in consecutive battles - how often did someting like that happen in OTL - why don't we also plan for the heads of the other Allied armies to be killed in their first contact with the French. That should give old Nappy an advantage.

That in itself was considered something of a taboo. At Waterloo, Wellington was informed that the artillery had their sites on Napoleon and asked for permission to fire. Wellington instantly refused, citing that the commanders of opposing Armies shouldn't fire on each other.

I wonder .... with the Prussian Army crushed and gone , would Prussia's military capability be mauled for a generation or so ? Also , how much worse would the Prussians have fared in any analouge to the congress of Vienna ? Or will such a convention be butterflied away instead?

How will European History in the long run change if Prussia was utterly obiliterated at the Battle of Waterloo ,and the hundred days dragged out into two hundered or so ?

DAv said:

That in itself was considered something of a taboo. At Waterloo, Wellington was informed that the artillery had their sites on Napoleon and asked for permission to fire. Wellington instantly refused, citing that the commanders of opposing Armies shouldn't fire on each other.

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Deliberate targeting of enemy commanders did not happen (much) during this era but death on the battlefield was quite common. Generals were expected to lead their men and provide an heroic example. Napoleon himself received some minor wounds/bruises during battles and occasionally exposed himself to enemy fire to motivate his men.

ranoncles said:

Deliberate targeting of enemy commanders did not happen (much) during this era but death on the battlefield was quite common. Generals were expected to lead their men and provide an heroic example. Napoleon himself received some minor wounds/bruises during battles and occasionally exposed himself to enemy fire to motivate his men.

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Which wasn't often really, as it would have been an idiotic thing to do in Napoleon's case. While people like Blucher and Wellington were only generals of a state and therefore, expendable, Napoleon was the Emperor of France and should never have exposed himself to such danger though I could understand why he wanted to rally his men at times.

It should be remembered that at the Congress of Vienna most of the allied powers were at one anothers throats. While they did respond to Napoleon's return to power the distruction of the Anglo-Dutch and Prussian Armies in the lowlands might very well have given them to pause. It is possible that if Napoleon was able to inflict 1 or 2 more major defeats on the allies he could get them to agree to a settlement that might leave him and his son,to follow him in power. This might appeal to the Austrian Emperor , whose grandson would then become the next Emperor of the French, as this would lead to a strong French-Austrian alliance enableing Austria to compete for controlof Germany. I believe that this would be the real politik position.

chris N said:

It should be remembered that at the Congress of Vienna most of the allied powers were at one anothers throats. While they did respond to Napoleon's return to power the distruction of the Anglo-Dutch and Prussian Armies in the lowlands might very well have given them to pause. It is possible that if Napoleon was able to inflict 1 or 2 more major defeats on the allies he could get them to agree to a settlement that might leave him and his son,to follow him in power. This might appeal to the Austrian Emperor , whose grandson would then become the next Emperor of the French, as this would lead to a strong French-Austrian alliance enableing Austria to compete for controlof Germany.

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I think you might be over-optimistic about Boney's chances for survival. And I insist that you stop putting smileys in the subject line.