Soviet Union invades Eastern Europe May 24,1940

[Brilliantlight]

Originally Posted by Valamyr

Now I'd like to see some facts to back that up.

I was under the impression the Abwerh was amongst the finest of it's time. That "joke" single-handedly forged the evidence that brought the Purges upon the USSR, destroying utterly what capacity the Red Army had, and ensuring that in the advent of this POD, my scenario would have had the most chances to prevail.

As for its head working for the MI6, I think i heard something of that sort once. Is it factual? It would explain a few things.

Stalin knew they were fake but used them as an excuse to purge the military. He was purging left and right in those days, so what was the suprise?

[Brilliantlight]

Originally Posted by fhaessig

France surrender in july, when SU just attacked Germany?

ASB territory.

Reynaud Government stays in power an continues to fight from Bordeaux, or Corsica if he has to. In this TL, the french KNOW the german will have to retire most of their army, so they can get their own back.

Agreed, I think it would boost French morale through the roof while the Germans panic. The Germans would not consider a Soviet invasion as a joke and scramble. The Germans have few troops and little logistical support in the east at this time.

[Brilliantlight]

Originally Posted by stodge

It's an interesting if, in my view, implausible scenario but it deserves serious consideration. There was of course a German occupying force in the western half of Poland as well as German forces in east Prussia and the Memel.

Now, when did the Russians occupy the Baltic States in OTL - it was sometime in 1940, I believe ?

Further south, you have German-occupied Czechoslovakia and pro-German Governments in Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria (and Yugoslavia as well). The other action of 1940 was the Italian attempt to occupy Greece from Albania, which we know was a dismal failure. Thjere is also some activity in North Africa, again involving the Italians, later in the year.

Far too few troops and the puppet states would likely send their troops to defend THEIR OWN borders from the USSR. There were not many German troops in the east as the bulk is in the west fighting the Western Allies.

[Bill Haywood]

Russian involvement would have critically unbalanced the balkan and eastern european states most of whom would have sided with the germans at this point had the soviet union invaded germany, even if their assistance would have been half hearted.
Stalin would have had to pretend he was coming to polands aid in order to have the Nazis regarded as the more dangerous threat, but even then it appears unlikely that this would be the case.

More importantly Stalin was still worried about the millions of japanese troops approaching his border, even after khalkin gol. It wasn't until well into 1941 that he learnt from his spies in japan that japan was going to attack the USA, in 1940 japanese-american relations were considerably less tense than japanse relations with the USSR.

Stalin was ever the cold brutal pragmatist, he expected other people to act predictably and pragmatically. The US and Japan he thought would keep their agreement on how they could carve up the pacific between them recognising each other special interests in their new colonies, while japan was too weak to fight the USSR on its own. He hadn't considered a quick victory for the germans and thought the war would last a long time, giving the USSR untill 1942 at least to build up its forces for war against germany and possibly Japan also.

I think you'd have to change things a lot earlier in order to achieve anything like this timeline, you'd have to get rid of the army purges for a start in order to simply make it logistically feasable. Stalin the pragamtist would be very unlikely to try it.

[Brilliantlight]

Originally Posted by Bill Haywood

Russian involvement would have critically unbalanced the balkan and eastern european states most of whom would have sided with the germans at this point had the soviet union invaded germany, even if their assistance would have been half hearted.
Stalin would have had to pretend he was coming to polands aid in order to have the Nazis regarded as the more dangerous threat, but even then it appears unlikely that this would be the case.

More importantly Stalin was still worried about the millions of japanese troops approaching his border, even after khalkin gol. It wasn't until well into 1941 that he learnt from his spies in japan that japan was going to attack the USA, in 1940 japanese-american relations were considerably less tense than japanse relations with the USSR.

Stalin was ever the cold brutal pragmatist, he expected other people to act predictably and pragmatically. The US and Japan he thought would keep their agreement on how they could carve up the pacific between them recognising each other special interests in their new colonies, while japan was too weak to fight the USSR on its own. He hadn't considered a quick victory for the germans and thought the war would last a long time, giving the USSR untill 1942 at least to build up its forces for war against germany and possibly Japan also.

I think you'd have to change things a lot earlier in order to achieve anything like this timeline, you'd have to get rid of the army purges for a start in order to simply make it logistically feasable. Stalin the pragamtist would be very unlikely to try it.

OK, the French put radios in their tanks. This does not stop the Germans but French capability increases enough that the Germans take 30% more casualties including a 50% increase in the loss of tanks and are held up an extra day. As far as Eastern Europe I think they would side with Germany, on paper. Most of their troops would be sent to their eastern border to try and prevent Russia from invading them. The Germans might get a few poorly trained units to try and help Germany from totally collapsing.

[Bill Haywood]

Originally Posted by Brilliantlight

OK, the French put radios in their tanks. This does not stop the Germans but French capability increases enough that the Germans take 30% more casualties including a 50% increase in the loss of tanks and are held up an extra day. As far as Eastern Europe I think they would side with Germany, on paper. Most of their troops would be sent to their eastern border to try and prevent Russia from invading them. The Germans might get a few poorly trained units to try and help Germany from totally collapsing.

Hmm 50 divsions? I think that takes months of planning, he would have needed to have this planned. Also why would he suspect a quick end to the war? Stalin probably thought the war in the west would last at least a year. Later evidence seems to show how unprepared he was for the pace of modern warfare.
I'm not convinced he would attack until at least 6-9 months into operations no matter how long he'd planned it for.

I don't think the USSR has the offensive capcity in 1940, all its elite tank divisions are deployed on the eastern front, its frontline forces are below strength in some cases, and mostly lacking in officers.
So the army purge is going to have to go, plus we need some of the earlier proponents of armoured warfare to survive, who stalin killed off in the early 30's.
Stalin instead of launching army purges launchezs a fanatical drive towards creation of an expanded assault force, recruiting from specific reasons and expanding military intelligence and NKVD forces.
The problem here is this is both a break of character and of general socio-economic progress aswell as a break in ideology, so i don't think its likely that it would happen.
I think realistically for this all to happen you need someone less defensive and less pragmatic than stalin and a different party cadre and socio-economic structure present in the USSR, like trotsky for example. Trotsky would have militarised society to the level needed to mount such a vast offensive in 1940, with the massive level of internal security and rear area operations troop deployment needed, although he would have killed even more people in the process.

And i still haven't worked out what the japanese are going to do, would they take a gamble do you think?

[Straha]

we could se "Uncle Adolf" isntead of "Uncle joe" in this TL

[JimmyJimJam]

Originally Posted by Bill Haywood

I don't think the USSR has the offensive capcity in 1940, all its elite tank divisions are deployed on the eastern front, its frontline forces are below strength in some cases, and mostly lacking in officers.
So the army purge is going to have to go, plus we need some of the earlier proponents of armoured warfare to survive, who stalin killed off in the early 30's.

Funny how quickly the soviets developed offensive capability in 41-42 even though they were so unprepared in '40. I see them getting their army in fighting shape much sooner, if say, some of their offensives turned into bloody debacles, or the Axis tried a two front invasion.

[Brilliantlight]

Originally Posted by JimmyJimJam

Funny how quickly the soviets developed offensive capability in 41-42 even though they were so unprepared in '40. I see them getting their army in fighting shape much sooner, if say, some of their offensives turned into bloody debacles, or the Axis tried a two front invasion.

I also think they have an easier time of it then admitted here. They aren't going against much. The troops simply are not in place in eastern europe yet. The shock of invasion would probably paralyze the Germans at least a couple of days. Also no one can simply move large numbers of troops overnight. Also the Germans simply don't have the logistics in place yet. Few ammo and fuel dumps and air strips. The Luftwafe would be bombed in their airfields not the other way around in this scenario. The Germans could and would build these over time but it would take time.

[Brilliantlight]

Originally Posted by Straha

we could se "Uncle Adolf" isntead of "Uncle joe" in this TL

Yep, and let's face it Joe Stalin was in the same catagory as Adolf Hilter as both probably killed around the same number of innocent people. I don't see how it would matter to me if someone in my family was killed for being a "Kulak" instead of being killed for being a Jew. They would be just as dead.

[wkwillis]

Germany just lost the war. The Russian army and the British navy control 90% of his oil supplies. Once Ploesti is under Russian control, that's it. See Goralski's 'Oil and War'.
Of course, the German General Staff could just shoot all the Nazi legislators, summon the Reichstag back and inform them that they needed a treaty with France, Britain, etc, now. Then there is a big war between Socialist Europe and Communist Europe.
The Socialists win because the Russian army was surrendering to the Germans by the battalion during the first part of Barbarossa. They would be surrendering to the Socialists in divisional groups.

[Brilliantlight]

Originally Posted by wkwillis

Germany just lost the war. The Russian army and the British navy control 90% of his oil supplies. Once Ploesti is under Russian control, that's it. See Goralski's 'Oil and War'.
Of course, the German General Staff could just shoot all the Nazi legislators, summon the Reichstag back and inform them that they needed a treaty with France, Britain, etc, now. Then there is a big war between Socialist Europe and Communist Europe.
The Socialists win because the Russian army was surrendering to the Germans by the battalion during the first part of Barbarossa. They would be surrendering to the Socialists in divisional groups.

How far are the oil fields from Russia (serious question)? If there is time for the Germans to get some of their troops in position to guard the oil fields, they could hold out a while. I agree that in a fairly short time the Germans are doomed whatever the situation about the oil. They simply don't have enough troops to fight both fronts at once nor the time to turn around hordes of troops to fight the Russians.

[wkwillis]

The Germans get there first because they can just get in trucks, etc, and drive there. The Hungarians and Rumanians are not going to stop them because they were terrified of the Russians. The German army in Germany is busy fending off the Russian army in Poland, so they have to use Western Front troops to do it. That assumes that the French will let them disengage, which assumes that there is a treaty between Germany and France, at least.
Ploesti is across two rivers from Russia, and several hundred miles. The Russians will get there in a week unless essentially the entire German army is holding the line against them.
Of course, if Germany makes a treaty with Britain the Germans can import plenty of oil to run the country and don't need Romanian oil. So Russia has to consider that.

[Valamyr]

I think the Axis would be able to defend or at least quickly recapture the Romanian oil fields. A treaty with the west strikes me as a bit unlikely though. The western powers might be happy to be getting off the hook, but theyre likely to press their advantages and try to ally with the Soviets. (As they were planning in 1940).

Of course, if they fear for their own security, it changes things. But as long as they believe Stalin will stop at the Oder, they would probably consider him the lesser evil. Especially with Germans rapidly advancing on Paris at the time.

I expect the Germans would have advance warning of the attack. I'd give them 1 week to prepare.

If I happened to be in Adolf's shoes at the time, I'd try to quickly finish off France while pulling the units that logistics will allow to transport eastwards quickly. The defense plan would probably be to hold the oil fields in Romania, and a line along the Danube in Hungary. Central poland is irrelevant, the northern corps would focus in defending the german regions along the baltic. I'd try to use the luftwaffe and the kriegsmarine agressively, to destroy soviet supply lines.

The red army that way might have trouble progressing in the balkans, but their second priority, the conquest of Poland, would appear to progress rather well. Keep in mind theyd be using outdated tactics though. Once the Germans rally and fight back, itll most likely be a major panzer pincer attack that could cut the soviet army in two and trap most of it in central poland.

The soviets were pathetic in 41, so i can hardly imagine 1940. I bet theyd sue for peace before winter. You guys seem to think they werent that bad, but frankly, i disagree. It took them two years of defeats and allied help to get in fighting shape. Just being on the offensive wouldnt suddenly turn them into a massive blitzkrieg behemoth.

So by the end of 1940, I see no Afrika Corps and the British seriously threatining remaining italian positions in North afrika. No battle of britain, so more british fighters remaining. German air force also in a better situation. In the east, after making two million prisonners, and destroying the better part of 15000 soviet tanks and planes, Germany accepts a truce which gives them the baltic states, all of poland, Romania to the Dniper, and a slice of Ukraine, along with reparations in the form of huge oil and strategic materials shipments.

Having broken the Soviet's belligerancy for awhile, and gained enough lands to see less interest in launching his own surprise attack, Hitler sees this window of opportunity as ideal to finish off the British. A 4 division strong Africa corps is to be sent to North afrika to save an increasingly desperate situation, while diplomatic pressure is used to force Vichy and Greece (Mussolini cant be stupid enough to attack it with the Reds at the gates) to cooperate militarily. Plans for attacks on Malta and Gibraltar are to be put in motion as the submarine campaign is stepped up. Most of the land troops stay in eastern europe for defense. Can Germany force a white peace in the west in 1941?

Britain will have close to no hope to see the Red army coming to its rescue, and US intervention will still look like the pipe dream it was until Dec. 7. 41. Once Rommel's panzers take back Tripoli and they feel their hold on the Mediteranean weakening, with no hope of a final resolution in sight, things wont be too interesting for the Brits. History has proven they can carry through hard times and prevail, though. But If Suez falls, so will Churchill.

Otherwise, the US will come to their rescue sooner or later, and then Hitler should eventually somehow think that fighting the soviets again will win him the war, and he'll be on his way down pretty much as in OTL.

[Brilliantlight]

Originally Posted by Valamyr

I think the Axis would be able to defend or at least quickly recapture the Romanian oil fields. A treaty with the west strikes me as a bit unlikely though. The western powers might be happy to be getting off the hook, but theyre likely to press their advantages and try to ally with the Soviets. (As they were planning in 1940).

Of course, if they fear for their own security, it changes things. But as long as they believe Stalin will stop at the Oder, they would probably consider him the lesser evil. Especially with Germans rapidly advancing on Paris at the time.

I expect the Germans would have advance warning of the attack. I'd give them 1 week to prepare.

If I happened to be in Adolf's shoes at the time, I'd try to quickly finish off France while pulling the units that logistics will allow to transport eastwards quickly. The defense plan would probably be to hold the oil fields in Romania, and a line along the Danube in Hungary. Central poland is irrelevant, the northern corps would focus in defending the german regions along the baltic. I'd try to use the luftwaffe and the kriegsmarine agressively, to destroy soviet supply lines.

The red army that way might have trouble progressing in the balkans, but their second priority, the conquest of Poland, would appear to progress rather well. Keep in mind theyd be using outdated tactics though. Once the Germans rally and fight back, itll most likely be a major panzer pincer attack that could cut the soviet army in two and trap most of it in central poland.

The soviets were pathetic in 41, so i can hardly imagine 1940. I bet theyd sue for peace before winter. You guys seem to think they werent that bad, but frankly, i disagree. It took them two years of defeats and allied help to get in fighting shape. Just being on the offensive wouldnt suddenly turn them into a massive blitzkrieg behemoth.

We never said they would be a huge blitzkreig behemoth but that if it came as a total or near total suprise the Russians run rampant because there is nothing to stop them. The vast majority of the Germany army is in France and you simply can't turn around huge armies on a dime. As long as the German army is in France Russia runs rampant in the East. Hitler would be advised to make peace with France at almost any cost. Minimum terms for the Allies would be to withdraw all his troops from the west. I doubt he would get off that easy and even that would take weeks.

[Paulo the Limey]

Originally Posted by Valamyr

I think the Axis would be able to defend or at least quickly recapture the Romanian oil fields. A treaty with the west strikes me as a bit unlikely though. The western powers might be happy to be getting off the hook, but theyre likely to press their advantages and try to ally with the Soviets. (As they were planning in 1940).

Of course, if they fear for their own security, it changes things. But as long as they believe Stalin will stop at the Oder, they would probably consider him the lesser evil. Especially with Germans rapidly advancing on Paris at the time.

I expect the Germans would have advance warning of the attack. I'd give them 1 week to prepare.

If I happened to be in Adolf's shoes at the time, I'd try to quickly finish off France while pulling the units that logistics will allow to transport eastwards quickly. The defense plan would probably be to hold the oil fields in Romania, and a line along the Danube in Hungary. Central poland is irrelevant, the northern corps would focus in defending the german regions along the baltic. I'd try to use the luftwaffe and the kriegsmarine agressively, to destroy soviet supply lines.

The red army that way might have trouble progressing in the balkans, but their second priority, the conquest of Poland, would appear to progress rather well. Keep in mind theyd be using outdated tactics though. Once the Germans rally and fight back, itll most likely be a major panzer pincer attack that could cut the soviet army in two and trap most of it in central poland.

The soviets were pathetic in 41, so i can hardly imagine 1940. I bet theyd sue for peace before winter. You guys seem to think they werent that bad, but frankly, i disagree. It took them two years of defeats and allied help to get in fighting shape. Just being on the offensive wouldnt suddenly turn them into a massive blitzkrieg behemoth.

So by the end of 1940, I see no Afrika Corps and the British seriously threatining remaining italian positions in North afrika. No battle of britain, so more british fighters remaining. German air force also in a better situation. In the east, after making two million prisonners, and destroying the better part of 15000 soviet tanks and planes, Germany accepts a truce which gives them the baltic states, all of poland, Romania to the Dniper, and a slice of Ukraine, along with reparations in the form of huge oil and strategic materials shipments.

Having broken the Soviet's belligerancy for awhile, and gained enough lands to see less interest in launching his own surprise attack, Hitler sees this window of opportunity as ideal to finish off the British. A 4 division strong Africa corps is to be sent to North afrika to save an increasingly desperate situation, while diplomatic pressure is used to force Vichy and Greece (Mussolini cant be stupid enough to attack it with the Reds at the gates) to cooperate militarily. Plans for attacks on Malta and Gibraltar are to be put in motion as the submarine campaign is stepped up. Most of the land troops stay in eastern europe for defense. Can Germany force a white peace in the west in 1941?

Britain will have close to no hope to see the Red army coming to its rescue, and US intervention will still look like the pipe dream it was until Dec. 7. 41. Once Rommel's panzers take back Tripoli and they feel their hold on the Mediteranean weakening, with no hope of a final resolution in sight, things wont be too interesting for the Brits. History has proven they can carry through hard times and prevail, though. But If Suez falls, so will Churchill.

Otherwise, the US will come to their rescue sooner or later, and then Hitler should eventually somehow think that fighting the soviets again will win him the war, and he'll be on his way down pretty much as in OTL.

If this scenario butterflies away the Italian campaign in Greece, then that almost certainly leads to a British victory in North Africa- the troops needed to achieve this were squandered in the attempt to support Greece.

[JimmyJimJam]

Whatever happens, the Wehrmacht will be nervously glancing over its shoulders to the east much as they were doing in '44, and this could turn into a hasty retreat if the Soviets attained even a moderate victory. Fighting in France would no doubt become a nightmare for the Germans as Anglo-French resolve would undoubtedly be hardened. The Eastern front would probably go this way: some Soviet gains as the German line crumbles, serious bloodletting as German divisions arrive, and an eventual train wreck for both sides. I'm not sure if the Western Allies would attempt to "go mobile" on Germany in this kind of situation, what do you guys think?

[Brilliantlight]

Originally Posted by JimmyJimJam

Whatever happens, the Wehrmacht will be nervously glancing over its shoulders to the east much as they were doing in '44, and this could turn into a hasty retreat if the Soviets attained even a moderate victory. Fighting in France would no doubt become a nightmare for the Germans as Anglo-French resolve would undoubtedly be hardened. The Eastern front would probably go this way: some Soviet gains as the German line crumbles, serious bloodletting as German divisions arrive, and an eventual train wreck for both sides. I'm not sure if the Western Allies would attempt to "go mobile" on Germany in this kind of situation, what do you guys think?

Agreed, this idea that the Germans wouldn't react like most human beings with shock and fear when a huge army is coming their way is absurd. Even as highly disciplined as the Germans were they are still human and will likely panic. Far from finishing the French off as quickly as possible I picture the Wehrmacht high command in an uproar for several days with a flurry of conflicting orders very likely. The Wehrmacht General staff would want to make peace with France ASAP so they can move their troops east. German troops in the west would be nervous about getting a tap on the shoulder and sent east. The front line would have some very shaken units, probably not a huge number but some and if the Allies spot them and take advantage of it morale might become such that they leave France as quickly as they entered. I don't see that as very likely but I would see the French front lines becoming stable as likely, at least for a while. Hitler is in a bad situation. Unlike OTL where he was looked upon as a God-like figure by many Germans , he would be looked at as the idiot who forced a two front war on Germany by being conned by a sly Russian. The German government has a REAL chance at falling in this scenario.

[Brilliantlight]

The way I see this happening
9/39 The invasion of Poland doesn't go as well for the Germans as in OTL due to more rainfall in Western Poland in the middle of the blitz. The Germans still win but it takes two weeks longer and takes 30% more casualties. Part of the reason the Poles hold out longer against the Germans is that they pull more troops out of the eastern border to send against the Germans so it is easier for the Russians. They reach the common border 3 days earlier and with 40% less casualties then OTL.

11/39 Stalin decides to plan invading Germany if he can. He orders troops to move west to "train" and move some of logistics there as well. At this time he is unsure of if he is going to go or not. He is awaiting future events.
12/39 France gets reports back from Poland that point out the advantages of radios in tanks. The French military starts a crash program making sure all tanks have raidos.

5/40 The Germans invade on schedule and Stalin grabs his chance.

[Bulgaroktonos]

If the British escape at Dunkirk, they are still going to be of no use. France is doomed. Britain will have no heavy equipment. It will be sending a world war I army against the Germans. Germany will be able to hold on to the iniative in France just long enough to knock them out of the war. Long before the surrender, France was just piecemeal opposition waiting to be taken apart piece by piece. By this time, Germany has the ability to shift their forces East to deal with Russia and still be able to hold the their position in France. Remember, at this time, most Poles still consider the Soviets an enemy. It would be interesting to see the dynamics at work between the AK and the Soviet forces in this situation, for the AK was no small thing....

By August, I think France has surrendered, Britain has rearmed big time, the Soviet attack has been blunted, if not turned. I would say that Russia will lose a lot of ground to the Germans, but that Britain, left alone for the last several months, may be able to launch an invasion of North Africa on its own by 1942, as most German divisions will be fighting in Russia, and won't have time for a side show in North Africa. There is no large scale bombing of urban centers yet, as that fateful cloud induced bombing of London never occurs, and the German war machine manages to crush Russian forces. Whether or not the British can win is another matter entirely....