Penny Flick, Penny Toss - Part 5

Continuing from Penny Flick, Penny Toss

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=4071
Part 4

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=3919
Part 3

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=3883
Part 2

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=3657
Part 1

Grey Wolf

I am thinking that in 1890, France and Austria use Prussian opposition to Nassau gaining Luxembourg

Like in the 1860s, there may first be a German Confederation against the Netherlands war

Then Prussia and Austria 'fall out'
- this time as opposed to OTL it is not Prussia machinating, it is France using differences to forward its own agenda and find an optimum time to break the growing threat from Prussia

Britain doesn't get involved, having problems with Russia in Alaska and knowing that if it becomes involved in Europe, Russia will take advantage to enter the war

A Prussian defeat, sees their ejection from the Rhineland territories which France and Austria parcel out to their allies, and set the remainder up as an independent state under a Habsburg Archduke

Grey Wolf

Looking at the division of the Palatinate in 1815, the parts that went to Prussia will be easily able to be redistributed, e.g. between Bavaria, Hesse-and-by-Rhine, Baden etc

Grey Wolf

What no Klondike War???

Actually what I have been looking forward to is a Great Game War where Russia attempts to invade India.

Following up on my theory of a North German cultural unity emerging absent strong Prussian political leadership. This North German Kultur would be ProGerman and AntiCatholic (back to the Kulturkampf). It is not exactly the 30 Years War mentality but rather a loose coalition of Conservative Protestants, Liberal Protestants, Atheist Modernists, Pantheist Freethinkers, and some germinal Neopagan movements rooted in occultism.

They are going to feel threatened by Habsburg expansion.

Tom

Tom_B said:

Actually what I have been looking forward to is a Great Game War where Russia attempts to invade India.

Following up on my theory of a North German cultural unity emerging absent strong Prussian political leadership. This North German Kultur would be ProGerman and AntiCatholic (back to the Kulturkampf). It is not exactly the 30 Years War mentality but rather a loose coalition of Conservative Protestants, Liberal Protestants, Atheist Modernists, Pantheist Freethinkers, and some germinal Neopagan movements rooted in occultism.

They are going to feel threatened by Habsburg expansion.

Tom

Click to expand...

Now, that's an interesting idea ! That in the wake of Prussian defeat and Austro-French expansion into the South, the North comes under a more popular unifying force

I think that key in this would be the position of the Rhineland state - I chose an Austrian Archduke as Belgium has an Orleans king. Its a good point that the Rheinish population probably won't appreciate this ! They will see themselves as having got rid of the not overly popular Prussians for the unpopular Austrians. But I think in this situation Louis Philippe II and Franz Josef WOULD make the mistake that this may well turn out to be

Resentment flowing out of Westphalia (shades of Angevinia in my memory) would coalesce with popular movements that focus against the Hannoverian monarchy, or against the ambitious but defeated Friedrich Wilhelm V in Berlin

The 1890s is going to be a time of disorder, rising popular movements and eventually 'something' within Northern Germany

I see the South banding together as about six states in a more formal alliance with France and Austria (well, these would be Bavaria, Baden, Wurttemburg, Nassau-Luxembourg, Hesse-Darmstadt and Hesse-Kassel with probably the free city of Frankfurt and the Grand Duchy of the Rhine or whatever its called !)

Grey Wolf

Tom_B said:

Actually what I have been looking forward to is a Great Game War where Russia attempts to invade India.

Following up on my theory of a North German cultural unity emerging absent strong Prussian political leadership. This North German Kultur would be ProGerman and AntiCatholic (back to the Kulturkampf). It is not exactly the 30 Years War mentality but rather a loose coalition of Conservative Protestants, Liberal Protestants, Atheist Modernists, Pantheist Freethinkers, and some germinal Neopagan movements rooted in occultism.

They are going to feel threatened by Habsburg expansion.

Tom

Click to expand...

Regarding India it is far less a British dominion than in OTL as the Indian Commonwealth is made up of the directly-ruled British parts, and the native states (some of which are also Taiping-style democracies...which is to say oligarchies that came out of the general populace, but will have cast off caste..so to speak). The Northern Sikh states will certainly be falling within Russia's orbit as Britain attempts to recover its position.

Tibet and more recently Afghanistan have become Russian satellites - Ladakh and Baltistan, the Maharajah of Lahore will be the area of rival influences

However, I CAN see Britain and Russia using the European distractions to have their own rivalry and conflicts.

There probably will be an 1890s war there, too

In addition, Spain will be experiencing problems which need some thinking about

And there is China to consider which is going to be a major focus

Not to mention the Eastern Mediterranean

Grey Wolf

I'm just starrting to read about this TL, and so far I'm very impressed! Good Stuff Grey Wolf. I had to hunt in the boards for the earlier discussions, but it has been worth the search. Thought I'd post a message of appreciation here


Sargon

A German Revolution or some such event, perhaps a series of Northern Unification Wars would draw in France and Austria who would end up with their primary objective being the survival of the South German states, probably in some sort of League (I don't think the word Confederation would be used). These few unstable years would probably be the ones which see Russo-British rivalry explode into war.

So, maybe by 1896 war in Alaska and war in India, with some involvement in China and the Persian Gulf, where Russia is dominant in Persia and Britain in the sultanate of Baghdad

Spain I think is going to lose Cuba completely in this period. I actually CAN envisage a Confederate expedition to take control of the island - maybe it is sold by Spain which withdraws from a losing battle, and the CSA move in to protect markets and plantations etc.

This could then drag in pro-independence Union forces, heighten tensions along the border etc.

If the outcome is an ignominious Confederate withdrawal and an independent Cuba playing the part of a Union foothold in the Caribbean (analogous to Castro's Communist one in the 1960s-1980s with its side-effects for neighbouring countries), then there would be another round of crises within the CSA, and this distraction would mean that neither the CSA nor the USA get involved directly in the Russo-British War

Grey Wolf

Oh, just found links to the others at the bottom of this thread! Silly me, would have saved searching!


Sargon

Sargon said:

Oh, just found links to the others at the bottom of this thread! Silly me, would have saved searching!


Sargon

Click to expand...

LOL, I just made that comment to my mate who's staying with me.

Thanks for commenting, and any advice or ideas for a future direction would be very much appreciated !

I prefer to have monarchies...but am having trouble with both Spain and the North German entity in that direction. Maybe Juan III simply abdicates and his son holds on to power despite a renewed civil war. But in Northern Germany, what kind of unifying force would end up with a monarchy and not a republic ? Maybe Friedrich Wilhelm V abdicates, or a relative usurps the throne and rules as a liberal emperor.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

A renewed Spanish civil war between republican forces and the Carlist monarchy would likely make the rest of the Spanish Empire vulnerable to outside interference. The Philippines may well come into great power rivalry, maybe with Japan as an American proxy rather than directly. Puerto Rico may well remain Spanish without a direct war in the Caribbean as it seems to have been pretty settled in OTL. That though leaves the Marianas, Carolines and Guam in the Pacific

Hawaii is also going to be interesting in this period. Basically, great power rivalry has preserved its independence but can it survive if both Britain and France are distracted elsewhere ? Or would Orleanist France NOT be TOO distracted by Europe that it loses sight of events in Honolulu ?

I suppose one could make a case for Britain finding Hawaii vital in its war with Russia anyway...

I wouild like to keep it independent longer than OTL

Grey Wolf

I am envisaging that Russia has successfully infiltrated/protectorised Baltistan and Ladakh, but when it begins to move on the vassals of the Maharajah of Lahore this escalates into an all-out war. These states in Kashmir and Jammu, and a bit firther South as well, have historically been vassal to Lahore, but also frequently fought over. They have had their own major ruler in Ranjit Singh, though he acted as the vassal of Lahore in all his conquests and achievements. The Russians will get involved in the internal politics, choosing one rival over another, firing civil wars etc and then invading in force once the Maharajah acts to compete against their influence. I envisage that Britain has its main base in Bombay (remember, in the Indian Revolutionary Wars they were forced out of Calcutta) and see the internal hinterland as vital to their remaining position. Units would initially be attached to the Maharajah's command, but later as the situation deteriorates and the Russians take Srinigar and march on Jammu, Britain will directly send reinforcements to fight under their own command.

Grey Wolf

1896

Although the war starts in India, Alaska is going to escalate immediately. The Russian Empire has a major position in Siberia and the Amur Maritime provinces, and that Imperial China has basically fallen back on Russian protection to prevent what remains of it from being torn apart, including by Russia. Together with its US allies in Japan and the Taiping states, and friendly French positioning, Russia has a huge advantage over Britain in the North Pacific. I would think in this timeline Russia has a maor fleet in place from Vladivostock, Petropavlosk, somewhere in Alaska (especially after the earlier war scare) and bases in Korea and China which are open to it. Britain has no position further North than Hong Kong, with its main area of presence in Singapore and the Malay Federated States. Except for Canada, of course, where a significant squadron is going to be based around Vancouver but one which cannot help but be out-numbered.

The naval war in the North Pacific probably sees Russian dominance, British cruisers raiding the waters and Russian transports, but the main British squadron locked in Vancouver similar to how the Russians were locked increasingly in Port Arthur in 1904-05.

Grey Wolf

Another major front is the Persian Gulf. Here, Britain has a position in the sultanate of Baghdad (Iraq minus the Mosul area, formally independent since the overthrow of the Osmanli in the 1820s but under the Mamelukes de facto independent for a couple of centuries before then). There is also British presence in Kuwait and the Trucial States.

The Russians with a dominant position in Persia have no doubt stationed several second class cruisers or gunboats there. British forces can probably take these out, but on the ground Britain has to be aware that their position in Baluchistan is under threat from a potential Russian advance through Persia, or that a weakening of the British position in Baghdad may well allow the Persians to attack the sultanate

Grey Wolf

The Baltic is quite an interesting area. With Northern Germany in turmoil, there are probably Austrian and French naval units in the sea, and one would imagine British ones as well. The outbreak of war with Russia will be viewed with concern in Stockholm, the Swedish position being anti-Russian but at the same time not wanting to rock the boat for their own current position.

As in OTL Crimean War, I think Britain is going to make a major effort to close off the Russians in the area where they can potentially be a threat to Britain itself. The main part of the British fleet would thus engage in close operations against Russian territory in the Baltic and White Sea. This may be a reverse of the situation in the North Pacific, where the British are the besiegers and the Russians are the ones who are mainly locked in their bases

Thus the main area of actual naval conflict is going to be in the Eastern Mediterranean. This is a change to OTL Crimean War in that Britain is not able to access the Black Sea, mainly because the Russian fleet has a major position in the Eastern Med

Grey Wolf

Russia has bases in Ottoman territory as well as in Egyptian and Greek territory. Britain presumably has to operate from out of Malta and Gibraltar, though the Two Sicilies will likely be friendly. The Septinsular Republic will be exposed once again, this time without the easy back-up for them from the Royal Navy. Greece is likely to take action when British attention is elsewhere. One can expect that Janina will challenge this.

Grey Wolf

Thus, there will probably be a Greco-Montenegrin attack upon Janina. A small war of its own in the Balkans. Montenegro, long in possession of Dubrovnik is probably also looking at Shkoder in Northern Janina (N Albania OTL). Greek meddling in the Ionian Islands draws direct Janinan intervention, and soon is a full-blown war, bringing in opportunistic Montenegro

With both Greece and Montenegro Russian allies, one can imagine that Russia will use the Ionian Sea as an area of operations. Expect a Russian battleship to visit Corfu etc

Austria is going to be viewing these events with some concern, as any gains for Russia threaten her own significant position in the Mediterranean. With the British position under threat, Austria can perhaps look to expand its influence over the Ottoman Empire, and its territories in Libya as well as its vassal in Tunis.

Grey Wolf

I'm envisaging several major naval battles in the Eastern Mediterranean. The route to India is complicated enormously if Britain has to send all of its ships via the Cape. Although Egypt is pro-Russian it is technically neutral so will allow passage through the canal - like in OTL British-dominated Egypt did in 1904-5 for elements of the Russian fleet off to fight their Japanese allies

Nineteenth century Britain does not have the almost unbroken string of successes etc that OTL the British Empire did. Especially there is no unwritten rule that the Royal Navy rules the seas.

Grey Wolf

I see the war lasting 1896-1898 and not going very well for Britain ! Potential allies will be reluctant to join her side without some sign that success is around the corner, whilst potential Russian allies will see local successes as enough reason to join in.

Although in 1896-1897 the ebb and flow of war in the Eastern Mediterranean sees British naval victories, and Russian ones too, by 1898 the tide is definitely turning against Britain where the war is becoming increasingly unpopular. The Russian siege of Malta is the final straw, and peace negotiations are opened

The Treaty of Rome (under Papal auspices, as a temporal power that neither Britain nor Russia recognise the spiritual domain of) has the following :-

1. Septinsular Republic annexed to Greece
2. Shkoder annexed to Montenegro from Janina
3. Areas of S Epirus annexed to Greece from Janina
4. Malta independent under Russian protection
5. Baltistan, Ladakh, Kashmir and Jammu become Russian 'protectorates'
(in the same way as in OTL Khiva and Bokhara were officially protectorates)
6. Lahore becomes a Russian client state
7. Alaskan boundary changes recognise Russian sovereignty over disputed areas (including some reversal of the Compromise of 1890)

In Britain, a Liberal government comes to power promising to focus on domestic reform

In 1899 Russia coerces its 'ally', the Chinese Empire, into ceding Manchuria to the Russian Empire

1899 also sees a Persian invasion of Baghdad, but this is beaten back with Ottoman support. Baghdad is forced to recognise the renewed overlordship of the Ottoman Empire (Girayli Empire ?)

Grey Wolf

The conclusion of the series of minor wars and revolutions across Northern Germany, see a 'German Empire' that includes Schleswig-Holstein, the Mecklenburgs, the Saxon Duchies, Saxony and Prussia.

British troops are stationed in Hannover (*which is now in dynastic union with Brunswick), whilst French troops are stationed in the Grand Duchy of the Rhine.

The German Empire has a liberal federal constitution, but is under the crown of the King of Prussia, August I the second son of Friedrich Wilhelm V who during the wars has seen his father abdicate (and subsequently die) and then forced his older brother to step aside.

Remaining independent from the new German Empire are :-

the Kingdom of Hannover (with Brunswick)
the Grand Duchy of Oldenburg
the Free City of Frankfurt
the Grand Duchy of the Rhine (ex-Prussian Rhineland-Wesphalia)
the Grand Duchy of Hesse-Darmstadt
the Kingdom of Wurrtemburg
the Kingdom of Bavaria
the Grand Duchy (Margraviate) of Baden
the Grand Duchy of Nassau-Luxembourg
the Landgraviate (Electorate) of Hesse-Kassel

Apart from Hannover and Oldenburg, these states are formed into a League of The South which operates in alliance with France and Austria, and has a central representation in Frankfurt

King Louis Philippe II dies in 1896 and is succeeded by his son (born 1869) King Louis Philippe III

Grey Wolf