Hungarian Victory at Mohacs

Part 1: The Crown of St. Stephen

August, 1526: Suleiman the Magnificent is killed at the Battle of Mohacs when Hungarian lancers break through his lines. The battle quickly turns into a route, and at the end of the day, more than 20,000 Ottoman soldiers are killed or taken prisoner by the Hungarians, who lose barely 4,000. Among the Ottoman prisoners are the Ottoman Grand Vizier, Frenk İbrahim Pasha, and other key members of the Ottoman court.

The Hungarians can scarcely believe their luck, and begin to campaign down the Balkan Peninsula, toward Belgrade. They reach Belgrade at the end of September and lay siege to the city for the winter.

March, 1527: The fall of Belgrade. The death of the Sultan and capture of much of his court have thrown the empire into chaos. The Mamluks, only recently bent to the Sultan’s will, begin to drift away from Ottoman domination.

Poland joins the war against the Ottomans, hoping to regain its influence in Romania. An army of several thousand is dispatched to bring the duchies of Wallachia and Moldova under control of the Polish crown.

The Hungarians press ever forward, having cut an unopposed swath of destruction down through Serbia and into Macedonia, they approach Sophia. Having heard of the Hungarians’ success against the Turks, Pope Paul III gives Louis II, the Hungarian King, the additional title of ‘Protector of Christendom’, and calls for Christians across Europe to come to the Hungarians’ aide. Few do, but the rest of Europe is alerted to the successes the Hungarians are making in the Balkans. In the face of this powerful and newly prestigious Hungary, the Habsburg Emperor begins to reconsider his ambitions to the south and east.

May, 1528: Much of the Ottoman Empire has collapsed into feuding warlords and generals. Ottoman suzerainty south of Syria is essentially meaningless, with Mamluk and Arab successor states reasserting their authority over most of Mesopotamia and the Levant. One such warlord, a Muslim Greek from Trebizond by the name of Rhadenos, has come to control much of Anatolia.

With the capture of Sophia, the Christian armies in the Balkans stop their advance and begin to consolidate their gains. The Ottoman Empire, being collapsed in civil war, has ceased pose a unified front against the Hungarians and Polish. The Polish and Hungarians begin making deals with local warlords to bring some sense of stability to the region.

December, 1529: A peace between the Hungarians and Rhadenos ends much of the fighting. Rhadenos’ armies have conquered what remains of the Ottoman Empire, but Mesopotamia and the Levant remain firmly out of reach. Egypt, currently ruled by a strong Mamluk ruler, is completely autonomous. Over the next few months, the few remaining loyalist forces in Rhadenos’ domains are hunted down and destroyed.

March, 1530: Frenk İbrahim Pasha, the former Ottoman Grand Vizier, is released from a Hungarian prison in Belgrade, now considered useless as a prisoner. He secures transportation to Istanbul, where he assumes a false identity as a wealthy Greek merchant and bides his time.

August, 1531: France, Spain, and Venice begin negotiations with local rulers in the Levant to import eastern goods. Silk road trade, long stifled by the monopolies held by the Mamluk and Ottoman Empires, begins to pick up again.

I find it rather implausible that the Hungarians would win at Mohacs in the first place. They were outnumbered pretty badly. And Suleiman I isn't called "the Magnificent" since he was a poor leader. Pasha wasn't too shabby either. During Suleiman's reign, the Ottomans were pretty much at their height of their power. Even had they lost at Mohacs, they were by no means destroyed. They would not be defeated in two years. Nope, not a chance. And the Mamluk's have only been destroyed for what, nine years? They haven't had the time to recover.

It is unlikely, I agree. But the Hungarians actually did break through the Sultan's lines in the begining of the battle, and the Sultan himself was even struck with an arrow! It bounced off of his armor in OTL, but what if it had, say, struck him in the neck?

The Ottoman Empire is indeed nearing the height of its power at this time, but, given its highly centralized nature, the capture of the sultan along with much of its administrative staff is likely to throw it into chaos. Local rulers, especially those recently conquered ones such as the Mamluks, would see this as an opportunity to regain some power.

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I meant to append something to the end of the originial post concerning comments, etc. I am curious to learn where you all could imagine this timeline heading -- I, of course, have have my own ideas, but I will keep those concealed until later on.

You still don't explain the capture of the Ottoman court, including the Vizier. You don't establish how the Hungarians overran so much of the Empire.

Even if Mohacs wasn't a total cakewalk for the Ottomans, it is much more likely for the Hungarians to get discouraged and flee, or for Suleiman to patch up a better army, than for Louis II to have such a successful war.

EDIT: BTW, I once made a TL like that. It's been inactive, but I might continue it. See here: https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=36303

Part II

A short update and a map. I spent a LOT of time on this map. I used Justin Pickard's Lantern Empires map as a base for it (I hope that was okay), but I made a lot of modification. The only changes from OTL 1533 should be in the areas of the Balkans, North Africa, and Near East. Oh, and Austria's inheritance of Savoy.

I'd love any comments you guys might have, and if there are any corrections to be made in regards to the rest of Europe not being accurate (I am specifically worried about the HRE), please tell me, because I am far from an expert on this time period.

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Part II:

September, 1532: Louis II crowned King of Serbia by the Pope. He is now King of Hungary, Croatia, Bohemia, and Serbia, and Duke of Bosnia.

March, 1533: Venetian merchants depose a minor ruler in the Levant and replace him with one more friendly to their interests. Over the next few decades, this becomes a fairly common practice for European powers in the region. Venice, Spain, France, and to a lesser extent, Genoa, all have stakes in the region’s spice and silk trade, which has expanded enormously.

Portuguese merchants, once the only suppliers of eastern goods in Europe, begin to feel the effects of the competition from the Levant. However, demand in Europe is such that profits are still, for the time being, tremendously high. Knowing that this cannot last, Portugal begins secret negotiations with the Mamluk rulers of Syria and Egypt.

December, 1533: Carlo III of Savoy, along with most of his family, dies in an unexpected fire. Ferdinand I of Austria, being his distant cousin, inherits the throne of Savoy. The Habsburgs begin to turn their eye toward the glittering prize of Italy.

By 1533 Navarre had been already incorporated to the Castillian crown.

Who is the HRE in this TL? If it is Charles V, then you would have Austria, the Netherlands/Burgundy and Spain in personal union.

Some observations

Wallachia and Moldova were not duchies. They were the Western equivalent of principalities. Their rulers' official title was "mare voievod si domn" ( great voievod and lord ) or shortly , "domn". You could just call the countries Wallachia and Moldova and their rulers princes , as the Westerners called them.

Also , I doubt there would have been a duchy of Constanta , because Constanta was just a village back then. I think the region would have been named Podunavia or Dobruja.
I think the annexation of Dobruja by Wallachia would have been more likely than the formation of this duchy ( the Wallcahians lost it in the 1420's ).
Also , I think Moldova would have regained its sea outlet in Southern Besserebia , between the Danube Delta and the Dneister ( lost it in 1484 ).

Yes, that i Medeival Hungary-wank. Its implausible that even with a lucky kill of the Sultan, Hungary would score so many victories.

Oh, and Hesse was Landgraviate, not a Duchy.

Susano said:

Yes, that i Medeival Hungary-wank. Its implausible that even with a lucky kill of the Sultan, Hungary would score so many victories.

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But the Ottomans realised that the war-wagon tactics of the Hungarians were useful and incorporated their own version to their tactics. Why would they do that if the hungarians were so badly outclassed?

Just make the ottomans to stick to their XV century tactics or the hungarians to increase their fire power even more. Add a dinastic crisis on the ottoman side and voila!

If the sultan dies - and in best case his heir - that would be a major defeat of the Ottoman Empire! Of course, that would need a better Hungarian army, maybe helping troops from other christian kings, a lot of luck...
So far, I think the POD is too implausible. Even if suleiman dies, that would not guarantee Ottoman defeat, yet the collapse of the empire.

But it could be done if some more facts are added. Just some ideas:

To further destabilize the Ottoman empire, let Suleiman die heirless - or with too many heirs. All would be wellcome as long as there is a long civil war starting pretty soon. The empire is still so young that pretty much every part could start a rebellion.

Maybe take an earlier POD and let the Johannites keep Rhodes, that would help in a western naval offensive by Venice and Genoa. Maybe there could be a new Crusade against Constantinople by sea, led by Venice.

The Habsburgs had a treaty for the heritage of Hungary since 1491. If they already had Hungary in 1526, the Ottomans would face a Habsburg army instead of a hungarian one, they'd fight the Roman Emperor. That could add some troops to the hungarian side. But it would add some major problems in Germany to your TL.
Or let Ludwig II die anyway and let the Habsburgs inherit a greater Hungary, thus adding imperial strength to the Hungarian cause.

Prevent the discovery of America. thus Spain would still be cioncentrated on the Muslims in Africa and the Ottomans. Thus you could get Spanish help in all actions you plan.


Anyway, keep up your work! I'm interested how history continues...

The Ottomans were vastly superior in military power and economic wealth to the Hungarians at this time. Arguably only the Ottoman's many other borders prevented a more successful advance to Vienna and beyond. Even when the Ottomans had begun to fall substantially behind Christendom, in the military and economic and technological spheres in the next century the change was not so dramatic that the Ottomans collapsed. Indeed, even when the second attempt on Vienna ended in disaster and an entire coalition formed to take advantage of Ottoman weakness(and wealth), the only substantial losses were Hungarian territory(as on this map but held for over a century, and areas bordering Russia and Poland. Even this was achieved only after serious fighting and two major Ottoman counterattacks.

I'm not saying the scenario is impossible but it will require more than a few PODs.

1) Even if the Ottomans are beaten and Suleiman killed, you would have to see the Ottomans collapse into a bloody civil war which lasted for several years. You would almost certainly also need a long-term distraction.

The best way for this would be a bloodbath which ends after nearly a decade with the wealth and military forces of the Ottoman Empire dissipated, ending with a boy sultan ascending the throne more due to survival than any great skill. Have this young sultan spend more time regaining his father's authority from grasping nobles and civil servants, so that Hungary has 15-20 years to recover from Mohacs. Additionally, have a Mameluke survivor seize power in Egypt and much of North Africa.

As Egypt was much wealthier than Hungary, and a province which seceded is much more troubling than a foreign land you never actually held...not to mention claims from Libya to the Atlantic Ocean depending on control of Egypt.

2) Strength in numbers. Poland is the obvious candidate for an alliance but is not the best choice in the long run. Perhaps a later king, frustrated with Poland's refusal to reform the government, sells Poland out to Russia for some of the territory?

3) Beware the Hapsburgs. Arguably a reduced Hungary would have survived except that the Hapsburgs tacitly allied with the Ottomans to split the kingdom, and 'beat the Hungarians when the Ottoman back was turned'. Further, a surviving Hungary may be able to assert the claim on Silesia, Bohemia and other areas. Thus a surviving Hungary dramatically reduces the size of Austria and the power/wealth of the Hapsburgs.

Developments from there should be obvious.

Spain and Burgundy were worth far more than the eastern lands.

What about a persian attack after the defeat in Mohacs? The defeat is not crushing but the heir has to face the threat coming from the east of a throne claimant supported by the saffavids...

Grimm Reaper said:

The Ottomans were vastly superior in military power and economic wealth to the Hungarians at this time. Arguably only the Ottoman's many other borders prevented a more successful advance to Vienna and beyond. Even when the Ottomans had begun to fall substantially behind Christendom, in the military and economic and technological spheres in the next century the change was not so dramatic that the Ottomans collapsed. Indeed, even when the second attempt on Vienna ended in disaster and an entire coalition formed to take advantage of Ottoman weakness(and wealth), the only substantial losses were Hungarian territory(as on this map but held for over a century, and areas bordering Russia and Poland. Even this was achieved only after serious fighting and two major Ottoman counterattacks.

I'm not saying the scenario is impossible but it will require more than a few PODs.

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True.

Grimm Reaper said:

1) Even if the Ottomans are beaten and Suleiman killed, you would have to see the Ottomans collapse into a bloody civil war which lasted for several years. You would almost certainly also need a long-term distraction.

Click to expand...

True.

Grimm Reaper said:

The best way for this would be a bloodbath which ends after nearly a decade with the wealth and military forces of the Ottoman Empire dissipated, ending with a boy sultan ascending the throne more due to survival than any great skill. Have this young sultan spend more time regaining his father's authority from grasping nobles and civil servants, so that Hungary has 15-20 years to recover from Mohacs. Additionally, have a Mameluke survivor seize power in Egypt and much of North Africa.

As Egypt was much wealthier than Hungary, and a province which seceded is much more troubling than a foreign land you never actually held...not to mention claims from Libya to the Atlantic Ocean depending on control of Egypt.

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True. I'd add even more seceding provinces, rebellions of shiites in Iraq, Christians in Europe, foreign intervention...
Then hungary is weakened, but still could use the possibility of a falling Ottoman empire.

Grimm Reaper said:

2) Strength in numbers. Poland is the obvious candidate for an alliance but is not the best choice in the long run. Perhaps a later king, frustrated with Poland's refusal to reform the government, sells Poland out to Russia for some of the territory?

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Poland could get Moldavia and Walachia.

Grimm Reaper said:

3) Beware the Hapsburgs. Arguably a reduced Hungary would have survived except that the Hapsburgs tacitly allied with the Ottomans to split the kingdom, and 'beat the Hungarians when the Ottoman back was turned'. Further, a surviving Hungary may be able to assert the claim on Silesia, Bohemia and other areas. Thus a surviving Hungary dramatically reduces the size of Austria and the power/wealth of the Hapsburgs.

Click to expand...

I'd make Hungary a Habsburg land prior to Mohacs. That could add strength to hungary in Mohacs and thereafter. And that could add the will to lead another crusade against the Ottomans, when they are weakened. A new crusade, when the sultan is dead and his heirs fight each other could be successfull. Then add some Venicean and Genoese attacks to regain their territories lost, a Persian attack and a Greek rebellion under some pseudo-byzantine usurper, wouldn't that be enough to destroy the Ottoman Empire?

Homer said:

I'd make Hungary a Habsburg land prior to Mohacs.

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Bright day
Are Jagellonians going to remain in Bohemia then?

This is interesting. But was Hungary still recovering from the double blow of the Mongols and the Plague a couple of centuries ago? If so, then a victory at Mohacs, if even plausible, would mean survival, not expansion. Suleiman had too many sons for the House of Osman to be wiped out in a generation. I really like Homer's idea of an all-out Safavid attack. Revolts and Latin expansion in the Aegean will chip away at Rumelia. But the Empire wasn't built overnight and won't die easy. The big winner in this scenario may be Russia.

Thoughts?

corourke said:

The only changes from OTL 1533 should be in the areas of the Balkans, North Africa, and Near East. Oh, and Austria's inheritance of Savoy.

I'd love any comments you guys might have, and if there are any corrections to be made in regards to the rest of Europe not being accurate (I am specifically worried about the HRE), please tell me, because I am far from an expert on this time period.

Click to expand...

There are quite a number of mistakes concerning borders of Poland and Lithuania:
1. In your map, the voievodship of Cracow is in Bohemia For your information: Cracow was the capital of Poland till 1596, and Cracow was in Poland till the Third Partition (1795)
2. Volyn should be in Lithuania
3. Also, lands around lower Dniepr should be in Lithuania too - you made Cossacs' lands independent. Also, if the Ottoman Empire is so weak, it is unavoidable that whole of Wild Fields will be back in Lithuanian hands - as they were before 1475?
4. Area around Brest-Litovsk should be Lithuanian too.

One more thing: I believe that Lusatia wasn't in Bohemian hands...

Anyway, here is redone map:

Tizoc said:

One more thing: I believe that Lusatia wasn't in Bohemian hands...

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Yes it was. It was part of Crown of Bohemia untill 1635 whne Habsurgs traded it to Saxony.

When the Ottomans are gone, and thjeir lands in the Levante scattered in minor territories, wouldn't some western power go for Jerusalem?

ITTL, the Indian ocean is pretty much in Portuguese hands, if some mediterranean power manages to get a hold on the coast of the red sea, they could go for India. So I think when the Ottomans are gone, France, Genoa, Venice and Spain would go for the Holy land or Sinai or even the whole of Egypt.

Thanks everyone for the corrections! I will work on revising the first two parts tomorrow or the next day. I think that I am going to go with a long civil war-type scenario in the Ottoman Empire.

ITTL, the Indian ocean is pretty much in Portuguese hands, if some mediterranean power manages to get a hold on the coast of the red sea, they could go for India. So I think when the Ottomans are gone, France, Genoa, Venice and Spain would go for the Holy land or Sinai or even the whole of Egypt.

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Absolutely. When country X has an inner line of country Y's color, that denotes heavy influence (either de jure vassal status or simply heavy-handed interest groups) in X's politics by Y or forces sympathetic to Y. I have indicated this in some polities in the Levant -- and it's going to increase as time goes on.