Soviets conquer Poland, 1920

The Polish won the major part of the battles against the soviets during the first part of the Polish-Soviet War (1919-1921), but in the summer of 1920 the communists made a great counter-attack that not only retook the Soviet lands lost, but also all Poland east of the Vistula. By August, the war seemed to end as a total Soviet victory, but suddenly, in only a week (August 10-17), the Polish defeated three Communist offensives over Warsaw, Radzymin and Lwów (Lviv). This was called "The Miracle of the Vistula", and it was surely a miracle. Once the three offensives were defeated, the Polish retook the iniciative, defeated the Soviets at the Battle of the Niemen River and reached again Minsk. The exahusted Armies agreed to sign the Peace of Riga that secured the independence of Poland.

Obviusly, if the Soviets win at least in Warsaw-Radzymin, they could defeat and annex Poland to the Soviet Union. The consequences would be very interesting. What would be the fate of the free city of Danzig? Or the Western European reactions to a war between the new born Weimar Republic and the Soviet Union?
 
OK, you said they win at Warsaw. This could work if Tukhachevsky would've been supported by Yegorov, which would've doubled his troops. However, one battle won doesn't mean too much... even if Warsaw falls and the Polish government fights itself (it wasn't sure Pilsudski would win before the battle), the Germans certainly wouldn't like the Soviets at the front door. They'd support the Poles, and the Western Allies might interfere too. This is a battle the Soviets can barely win, unless there's a successful mass uprising of Communists in Germany (and maybe France, or Britain too).
 
The German Communists? Quite some... there were Communist uprisings in the Ruhr area, Saxony, Thuringia, and about every bigger German city. Unfortunately, there aren't many big cities east of the Elbe river.
 
I know the Reichswehr was already planing to march into Poland in case of a polish collaps.
I guess they would stop at the 1914 border.

If the SU does not move on, this might result in an (unstable) peace.

I can't the Brittain and France go to war with Germany over that.
 
Nazi victory in WWII.
With a common nazi-soviet border, in 1939 Hitler goes east -as he did- but UK and France would not declare war if the nazis are attacking Stalin. A german-soviet war might end around 1944 with a german victory. War with the west might or not happen. A "shattered world" like scenario.
 
Nazi victory in WWII.
With a common nazi-soviet border, in 1939 Hitler goes east -as he did- but UK and France would not declare war if the nazis are attacking Stalin. A german-soviet war might end around 1944 with a german victory. War with the west might or not happen. A "shattered world" like scenario.

You're getting ahead of yourself. I don't think Hitler would take power at all in such a scenario. Germany won't be so humiliated, since Britain and France would allow them to have a bigger army and keep the eastern lands (no Poland, not even a rump one). Danzig and the link to East Prussia won't be an issue here.
 
Maybe. But the fear of communism was something that helped Hitler to gain power, and in TTL it would be even bigger. The Danzing thing would not matter, it was just a good excuse for german expansionism in the east. Hitler's goal was the USSR, and Poland was on the way.
 
Maybe. But the fear of communism was something that helped Hitler to gain power, and in TTL it would be even bigger. The Danzing thing would not matter, it was just a good excuse for german expansionism in the east. Hitler's goal was the USSR, and Poland was on the way.

No, what helped Hitler gain power was the fact that Germany had been humiliated. If it was primarily fear of communism then the Freikorps should have taken over in 1918-1920. And I'm not talking about Danzig as his excuse, I'm talking about Danzig as one of his rallying points. Hitler used the combination of German humiliation at Versailles and economic crisis to take power. But if the Soviets conquer Poland then the Entente will need a stronger Germany.
 
But if the Soviets conquer Poland then the Entente will need a stronger Germany.

True.

OTL, Clemeceau proposed a plan to fight the Communists in Russia, but the other Allies refused. Of course, the Red Menace on the German frontier would be quite a difference! After all, 1919 was a revolution in Germany that set up socialist-like state led by the Marines, Workers and other soldiers. This ended due to the new constitution. But it wasn't that sure at all that the Communists won't establish a Soviet Germany. At that time, Communism was international. Lenin wanted the world revolution, they tried to get Germany. That would be a great strategic advantage - but it was also an ideologic necessarity: At that time, nobody thought about establishing Communism in one land - that would be economically backwards! Lenin thought about starting the Revolution in Russia and then spreading it West. So if they get a victory in Poland, they would try further.

Second, the Western Allies would be alarmed of any Communist expansion! Probably they would engage in a full scale war, after all, they supported the Whites OTL and even sent some minor troops to Russia and accepted Freikorps operating in the Baltics. I could even think of US-intervention against communism.

So I'd think that Russian victories in Poland would lead to a war of the free world - at least Finnland, Poland, Romania, Germany, France and Japan - against the Russians and finally a victory of this alliance. And subsequently to harsh anti-socialist reactions throughout the world.
After all: The Reds are as theatening for any conservative, liberal or other bourgeois in France as the Germans were. Probably even worse.
 
True.

OTL, Clemeceau proposed a plan to fight the Communists in Russia, but the other Allies refused. Of course, the Red Menace on the German frontier would be quite a difference! After all, 1919 was a revolution in Germany that set up socialist-like state led by the Marines, Workers and other soldiers. This ended due to the new constitution. But it wasn't that sure at all that the Communists won't establish a Soviet Germany. At that time, Communism was international. Lenin wanted the world revolution, they tried to get Germany. That would be a great strategic advantage - but it was also an ideologic necessarity: At that time, nobody thought about establishing Communism in one land - that would be economically backwards! Lenin thought about starting the Revolution in Russia and then spreading it West. So if they get a victory in Poland, they would try further.

Second, the Western Allies would be alarmed of any Communist expansion! Probably they would engage in a full scale war, after all, they supported the Whites OTL and even sent some minor troops to Russia and accepted Freikorps operating in the Baltics. I could even think of US-intervention against communism.

So I'd think that Russian victories in Poland would lead to a war of the free world - at least Finnland, Poland, Romania, Germany, France and Japan - against the Russians and finally a victory of this alliance. And subsequently to harsh anti-socialist reactions throughout the world.
After all: The Reds are as theatening for any conservative, liberal or other bourgeois in France as the Germans were. Probably even worse.

All very true. Popular support for any war against socialism was not too likely in any country in 1919-1920. Remember the "Red Summer" of 1919 across the globe. If France had indeed manage to really the capitalist nations against the Soviets at that time, it would probably have resulted in the Communist revolutions across Europe. The relative military weakness of Russia at the time, though, makes the situation somewhat more advantageous to the West than the scenario I proposed in "Cross of Fire, Hammer of Iron," where a rightist junta in France uses Germany as part of a defensive alliance against the Soviets in the 1930's.
 
The Soviet Union falls much, much sooner -- say, the 1940s. The Poles were the most reluctant of the Soviet Bloc Communists. Yes, other nations (E Germany, Czechoslovakia, Hungary) have admirable histories of courageous resistance movements, but in Poland the Restistance was the mainstream for the entire period of Communist rule. It was as much an extension of the rivalry between Poland-Lithuania and Muscovite Rus that extends back to 1493 as it was any natural revulsion to totalitarianism, but it succeeded in forcing the Soviets to drain a disproportionate share of their resources into keeping the belligerents under the yoke.
 
All very true. Popular support for any war against socialism was not too likely in any country in 1919-1920. Remember the "Red Summer" of 1919 across the globe. If France had indeed manage to really the capitalist nations against the Soviets at that time, it would probably have resulted in the Communist revolutions across Europe. The relative military weakness of Russia at the time, though, makes the situation somewhat more advantageous to the West than the scenario I proposed in "Cross of Fire, Hammer of Iron," where a rightist junta in France uses Germany as part of a defensive alliance against the Soviets in the 1930's.

hmm, very interesting idea: the West starts the anti-communist war and thus spreads the revolution in its own lands.

But when those western countries are faced with increasing communist uprisings - say a red republic in bavaria, the Ruhr, Wallonia, Manchester, Lille... I think that would even increase their will to crush those Reds once and for all. After all, even Socialist president Ebert in Germany let the Freikorps fight the communists. And the western allies accepted the existence of the Freikorps - in fact against the Versailles treaty - as long as they fought against Communists.
I'd say that the main reason, that there was no "crusade" against the reds was that they stayed in Russia - and for quite a time it seemed that they would loose the civil war. So no need for intervention.
But how would British parliament react when faced with communist rebellions throughout Europe and Germany falling to the Soviets?

German conservatices allying with French conservatives against the Reds, Hindenburg and Pétain planing the invasion of Russia...
Could be quite an interesting timeline.
 
hmm, very interesting idea: the West starts the anti-communist war and thus spreads the revolution in its own lands.

But when those western countries are faced with increasing communist uprisings - say a red republic in bavaria, the Ruhr, Wallonia, Manchester, Lille... I think that would even increase their will to crush those Reds once and for all. After all, even Socialist president Ebert in Germany let the Freikorps fight the communists. And the western allies accepted the existence of the Freikorps - in fact against the Versailles treaty - as long as they fought against Communists.
I'd say that the main reason, that there was no "crusade" against the reds was that they stayed in Russia - and for quite a time it seemed that they would loose the civil war. So no need for intervention.
But how would British parliament react when faced with communist rebellions throughout Europe and Germany falling to the Soviets?

German conservatices allying with French conservatives against the Reds, Hindenburg and Pétain planing the invasion of Russia...
Could be quite an interesting timeline.

Thank you. I'm in the process of researching it, because I plan to go into a lot of detail about which I don't have the knowledge right now. Any recommendations for books I should read or websites I should peruse are welcome. Here's the thread, if you care to comment.
 

Admiral Matt

Gone Fishin'
Hrm... I think it's more likely that the Reds will buy themselves a peace than that anyone's going to be interested in walking all the way to Moscow. Even if they only have a foothold in Germany for a brief period, that probably means they've also managed to like up with the Hungarians. They have thousands of miles to fight across (or sign away) to get peace.

Not that the ability was in any way lacking, but I doubt that there was the will for such a war anywhere in the West.
 
Hrm... I think it's more likely that the Reds will buy themselves a peace than that anyone's going to be interested in walking all the way to Moscow. Even if they only have a foothold in Germany for a brief period, that probably means they've also managed to like up with the Hungarians. They have thousands of miles to fight across (or sign away) to get peace.

Not that the ability was in any way lacking, but I doubt that there was the will for such a war anywhere in the West.

Well, if "bourgeoise establishment" is thretened to loose all its posessions due to red revolution, that would be quite an incentive! And the Russians marching to Berlin means exactly that. Remember, WWI has just ended. And it was hard to fight. Now they could face a hostile nation from the Rhine to the Pacific - industrious as Germany, raw materials and troops like the Russians.
Now add some uprisings in France and Britain and maybe the US itself, that would be more then enough to go to war up to Moscow! After all, this war would be by far easier then WWI, because most countries they come to would feel liberated and thus join the allied forces. going to Moscow in 1921 is not that hard as going to Berlin in 1918 or 1945...
 
I've actually been interested in this topic myself, so I've pondered what the loss of Poland may mean. Firstly, obviously, the 'Polish corridor' becomes a non-issue and Germany gets a continuous land border with the fledgling USSR. But the Soviets are at the very limits of their capabilities. Taking down the Poles may free up enough reserves to secure the Baltic states, but that's scraping the bottom of the barrel for 1920. Nevertheless, the leadership of the Soviet Union was ideologically certain that their revolution would die out unless it spread east. Whatever Trotsky's reservations about Poland, it was his idea of 'Permanent Revolution' that set out the nature of Russia's revolution as not a singular event in October 1917 but instead a long, continuous process that inevitably turns international. The ideological backing for further advances into the west is there, but practicality forestalls anything for that year.

Given that, there would be many in the Entente leadership eager to intervene and crush the Red Menace once and for all. The French leadership would be keen to send foreign troops in due to their own misgivings about allowing Germany to re-arm. But get below that and you'll be unlikely to find support amongst the population. Responses would range among three seperate viewpoints, I imagine.

1. "After all we've been through I'm not going to support another pointless war."
2. "If the bourgeoisie expects us to wave our flags in support of their crushing of the world's first proletariat-controlled state, they've another thing coming."
3. "So the Russians invade Germany and they both grind each other into mince. This is a problem how?"

So, that being said, I expect such a crusade against the Russians would gain the support of eight countries, tops. Britain, France and Italy would send troops out of consideration of maintaining international stability. Finland, Czechoslovakia, Romania and Japan would join in out of a hunger for territory. And Germany's participation is a given, even if the Entente only allow it a back-seat out of fear of a re-armed Germany.

An attack in the autumn of 1920 by the professional armies would probably do quite well, driving the Russians back in the initial stages, but then the autumn sludge descends and Trotsky uses the opportunity to withdraw his troops to defensive positions and establish interior lines of communication like he did in the Civil War. Seeing how the Great War played out, he'd know the advantage of defence over attack and treat the 'crusade' like the Great War should have been treated: like an enormous castle siege. It wouldn't halt the armies but it would slow them down, and that's all he needs.

With the armies camping down for the winter you have the prospect of the first casualty lists returning, the introduction of conscription, the notice of increased rationing and the curbing of liberties for reasons of security...it'll be too much for the war-wracked peoples of Europe. Lenin has popular support because his country is the one being invaded, while the Entente is the one crushing a worker's government. In the spring of 1921 you're going to get riots, general strikes and worker's councils springing up from Belfast to Ploesti. And then it's anyone's guess what would happen next.

EDIT: Actually, I've just had a thought. With Europe returning to a state of utter carnal chaos, what does this bode for the United States? They may get an influx of persecuted workers, persecuted rich people and anyone else who thinks it's a good idea to flee while the fighting's still in the factory districts. The US would never in a million years get involved in this conflict for all kinds of sensible reasons, so making an even more pointed contrast between the peace and prosperity of America and the barbarity and depravation of Europe. What effects would this have on the roaring twenties?
 
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Finland, Czechoslovakia, Romania and Japan would join in out of a hunger for territory.

Actually, they'd join to defend themselves against a menace. You have to understand that this war would be seen differently in those countries that lie next to Soviet Russia. You can't call war pointless when your country's survival is at stake. With the possible exception of Czechoslovakia, I don't see any of them being subverted by communism from within.

Another thing worth mentioning is that these countries don't have the same sort of war-weariness as those in Western Europe. Japan was barely implicated, Czechoslovakia has just formed, Finland only gained its independence recently, and Romania has had it relatively easy since 1918.
 
Even if they only have a foothold in Germany for a brief period, that probably means they've also managed to like up with the Hungarians.

The Hungarian Soviet Republic fell in the summer of 1919, about a year before the POD, when Romanian troops occupied Budapest, so they won't have anyone to link up to.
 
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