WI: Tony Blair assassinated in 2001?

[Floid]

In 2001, during the Kosovo Conflict, there was a serious attempt by the then remnants of the Yugoslavian army to assassinate the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom as he visited Macedonia; this was an order directly from Milosevic himself. Obviously, the order was never carried due out; in large part this was due to the then Head of the Yugoslavian Army, General Nebojsa Pavkovic, refusing to carry out the attacks as he was trying to distance himself from Milosevic and as he feared reprisals. If the plan was carried out though it was speculated that the aeroplane would've been brought down with an AA launcher.

The POD here is: What if the attacks were actually carried out? The occupants of the aeroplane besides the Prime Minister included his wife, Cherie Blair, the Chief of the Defence Staff, Sir Charles Guthrie and Alastair Campbell, Tony Blair's RP man. How would the world be different today if these attacks were successful? How would Britain be different today if these attacks were successful? What would be the British reaction? The American reaction? The NATO reaction? How would the British deal with an assassination of a Prime Minister at home? Who would fill the vacancy? What would become of Milosevic?

There's some information about it here.

[Thande]

Originally Posted by Floid

In 2001, during the Kosovo Conflict, there was a serious attempt by the then remnants of the Yugoslavian army to assassinate the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom as he visited Macedonia; this was an order directly from Milosevic himself. Obviously, the order was never carried due out; in large part this was due to the then Head of the Yugoslavian Army, General Nebojsa Pavkovic, refusing to carry out the attacks as he was trying to distance himself from Milosevic and as he feared reprisals. If the plan was carried out though it was speculated that the aeroplane would've been brought down with an AA launcher.

The POD here is: What if the attacks were actually carried out? The occupants of the aeroplane besides the Prime Minister included his wife, Cherie Blair, the Chief of the Defence Staff, Sir Charles Guthrie and Alastair Campbell, Tony Blair's RP man. How would the world be different today if these attacks were successful? How would Britain be different today if these attacks were successful? What would be the British reaction? The American reaction? The NATO reaction? How would the British deal with an assassination of a Prime Minister at home? Who would fill the vacancy? What would become of Milosevic?

There's some information about it here.

This is an interesting WI.

Blair is martyred. At this point Brown will probably win any leadership election as well as presumably being caretaker leader until it takes place (I assume it will be delayed for a while out of respect). Massive review of anti-terrorism measures, I suspect, which might result in 9/11 being halted. If 9/11 still does happen, I doubt we would see the same immediate and direct support from Britain as happened in OTL (Blair commandeering Concorde to get over to America) although there would be more muted sympathy and support to America of the order that came from the European countries OTL.

At this point I don't think many people will suggest that we should never have gone into Kosovo; the Serbs' image will be blackened in the British and perhaps altogether Western eyes for the foreseeable future.

[FletcherofSaltoun]

Tony Blair would have become the UKs John F Kennedy.

[Thande]

Originally Posted by FletcherofSaltoun

Tony Blair would have become the UKs John F Kennedy.

I could even see him developing something like a smaller Diana-type cult, which is a truly frightening thought

[Saladin]

Originally Posted by Thande

I could even see him developing something like a smaller Diana-type cult, which is a truly frightening thought

::SHUDDER:: dear lord thats a frightening idea. Sadly, I can easily see it too, after you mentioned it.

In fact, a likely development would be a rather hideous hybrid of JFK and Diana, so apart from anything else, no one will dare to challenge any Blairite policies for at least 25 years! That would be disasterous

[Thande]

Originally Posted by Saladin

::SHUDDER:: dear lord thats a frightening idea. Sadly, I can easily see it too, after you mentioned it.

In fact, a likely development would be a rather hideous hybrid of JFK and Diana, so apart from anything else, no one will dare to challenge any Blairite policies for at least 25 years! That would be disasterous

Not in name, no, but I could see Brown (assuming he does become PM, which seems likely in TTL) enacting policies that would have horrified Blair, but doing so in Blair's name and dedicating them to his memory

[Saladin]

Originally Posted by Thande

Not in name, no, but I could see Brown (assuming he does become PM, which seems likely in TTL) enacting policies that would have horrified Blair, but doing so in Blair's name and dedicating them to his memory

Perhaps ... but he would have to be careful which policies, and they would have to at least superficially resemble St Blair's policies

[FletcherofSaltoun]

Not in name, no, but I could see Brown (assuming he does become PM, which seems likely in TTL) enacting policies that would have horrified Blair, but doing so in Blair's name and dedicating them to his memory

So Gordon Brown becomes LBJ!

Iraq would be interesting..

In fact, a likely development would be a rather hideous hybrid of JFK and Diana, so apart from anything else, no one will dare to challenge any Blairite policies for at least 25 years! That would be disasterous

Dont think it would be that disasterous, but probably wouldnt happen

Blair, if you exclude Iraq hasn't been a bad PM

[Akiyama]

This scenario is giving me cognitive dissonance.

On the one hand, I am drooling over the idea of a timeline where Blair is assassinated before he stops implementing sensible policies and starts trying to kill Muslims and dismantle democracy instead. On the other hand, In this timeline, I would probably think Blair was a great person . . . ouch, my head hurts . . .

Good news for the Labour Party, I think. I feel Brown would be right-wing enough to hold the centre ground, electorally, while not being so right wing that Labour loses its traditional supporters.

It's a pity we can't visit nearby timelines and see what alternative politicians would actually be like in power. I'm sure it would be very educational.

[Floid]

Akiyama, drooling?

I think he'd be made a martyr too: At this point in history he was at his near height of power and popularity; Labour had just a second landslide victory in the general elections; the economy was growing faster than it ever was before and billions of pounds of investment were being pumped into education, health, housing and other social projects; and the Tories were still a complete shambles, reeling from a crushing election defeat and struggling to reorganise.

I think you might see a ‘cult’ developing around Tony Blair in this case, like you have with JFK and Lincoln, with the obligatory conspiracy theories—that would’ve been interesting to see. I assume the national and international outpouring of grief would be near total; perhaps he’d even be accorded a state funeral, which doesn’t happen that often. I think he might become the modern equivalent of Ernest Bevin in the Labour Party.

Is it a given that Gordon Brown would become the caretaker Prime Minister? I was under the impression that the title would automatically go to the Deputy Prime Minister, so we have ourselves a John Prescott Government for a couple of months. Is it also a given that Gordon Brown would win any Labour Party leadership challenge? Or is it taken as granted that he would’ve been first in line to succeed Tony Blair and assume the position of Prime Minister? I think it’s pretty certain that Labour would have won any prospective election.

I don’t think much would’ve been done in the way of anti-terrorism in Britain or America, as this assassination would’ve happened in Macedonia and carried out by Yugoslavian state forces rather than unaffiliated terrorist forces. I do however think that you might see American-style security and protection for the Prime Minister in the future, perhaps even something akin to the Secret Service; travelling in convoys and dedicated aeroplanes or helicopters such as Air Force 1 and Marine One.

Let’s assume for the moment that Gordon Brown is the successor to Tony Blair: What would his relationship be with the British people in the first few months of his premiership? How would he handle the office? I know he’s not as articulate as Tony Blair nor as astute an orator, so I’d expect he’d be less of a ‘showman’ and ‘performer’. I think he’d be a more domestic Prime Minister than an international statesman that Tony Blair was or tried to be. I also think there’d probably be less of a ‘spin culture’ in a Brown Government, especially without Alastair Campbell. Do you think Brown would win a second termf or himself and a third term for Labour? Also, how would the assassination of Blair affect David Cameron and his future policies? Would Cameron rise through the ranks at all?

What would Brown’s relationship be like with other European leaders? Specifically what would his relationship be like with Schroeder and Chirac? What about his relationship with George W. Bush? I guess he wouldn’t be as well known as Tony Blair is to the international public, especially to Americans.

On to September 11th et al: How would Gordon Brown react to it? Is it a given that Gordon Brown would follow the US into Afghanistan just as Tony Blair did? Would the commitment in Afghanistan be the same, lower or higher? What about anti-terrorism initiatives and laws? What and how would Brown implement these? How would he affect U.S. foreign policy?

On to the Iraq War: Why do some people suggest that Gordon Brown wouldn’t follow the U.S. into Iraq? He was one of the Cabinet members that voted for war with Iraq. Without Tony Blair, would this change? If so how would this affect other allies such as Australia, Spain, Italy and Poland? How would Brown react to the rift between Europe and America over Iraq? Would he try to be the middleman or peacemaker like Tony Blair was or tried to be?

So many questions asked—sorry.

[Thande]

Originally Posted by Floid

On to the Iraq War: Why do some people suggest that Gordon Brown wouldn’t follow the U.S. into Iraq? He was one of the Cabinet members that voted for war with Iraq. Without Tony Blair, would this change? If so how would this affect other allies such as Australia, Spain, Italy and Poland? How would Brown react to the rift between Europe and America over Iraq? Would he try to be the middleman or peacemaker like Tony Blair was or tried to be?

Because Blair was absolutely determined on Iraq from the beginning, and it was a natural result of him throwing everything in with America in 2001 immediately after 9/11. As I said, I think Brown's support and sympathy for America would be more muted, though no less sincere.

EDIT: Also people have unearthed records which appear to indicate that Blair was determined to tackle Saddam from as early as 1997 given the opportunity, which GWB gave him.

[HelloLegend]

Originally Posted by Thande

Because Blair was absolutely determined on Iraq from the beginning, and it was a natural result of him throwing everything in with America in 2001 immediately after 9/11. As I said, I think Brown's support and sympathy for America would be more muted, though no less sincere.

It would be only fair if British support for America was "more muted" since the American support for Britain was "more muted" during the Falkland War.

[Akiyama]

IIRC, Clare Short, in her book An Honourable Deception?, wrote that Gordon Brown was against attacking Iraq without a second resolution, but didn't consider it a resigning issue.

I think Brown, like most British people, is generally pro-American but doesn't have much respect for the Bush administration. If the UK did not commit troops the "coalition of the willing" would be smaller. My guess is that Poland would still commit troops, but Australia and Spain wouldn't.

Britain would still put troops into Afghanistan. Brown's relationship with Europe would be similar to Blair's regarding the EU but closer on foreign policy (towards the US, Iran etc.). His relationship with Bush would probably be polite but distant.

I don't see how Brown can avoid winning elections until the Tories get their act together and elect a decent leader. Cameron's election to the leadership was unlikely in OTL (who had heard of him before the leadership contest?) but is more likely in this ATL because comparisons with Blair will help rather than hinder him.

[Thande]

Originally Posted by Akiyama

Britain would still put troops into Afghanistan. Brown's relationship with Europe would be similar to Blair's regarding the EU but closer on foreign policy (towards the US, Iran etc.). His relationship with Bush would probably be polite but distant.

Agree but remember re. Europe Brown tended (and tends) to be much more Eurosceptic (in particular with regards to the euro, although I presume in TTL that will retreat to the same non-issue it has OTL).

[Justin Pickard]

Originally Posted by Floid

...so we have ourselves a John Prescott Government for a couple of months.

Oh, joy. Cue a number of embarassing PR gaffes.

[Saladin]

Originally Posted by Akiyama

If the UK did not commit troops the "coalition of the willing" would be smaller. My guess is that Poland would still commit troops, but Australia and Spain wouldn't.

I don't know about Spain, but with john howard in charge of Australia, its pretty much guaranteed that they would remain in the coalition

[Thande]

Originally Posted by Justin Pickard

Oh, joy. Cue a number of embarassing PR gaffes.

Prescott might even run to be PM permanently when a leadership election is called. After all, he did stand against Blair in 1994.

[MrP]

Originally Posted by Thande

Prescott might even run to be PM permanently when a leadership election is called. After all, he did stand against Blair in 1994.

*shudder*

[Akiyama]

If Prescott were PM, the press conferences at UK/US meetings would be amusing.

BTW, I voted for Prescott in the leadership election. I reckon I'd like him as PM; he's a straight talker, he's Old Labour, he's good on the environment and he thinks President Bush is "crap". That's good for me.

In OTL Blair should have sacked him after the local elections though.

[FletcherofSaltoun]

If Prescott were PM, the press conferences at UK/US meetings would be amusing.

Dumb and Dumber