WI Poland never partitioned?
- Thread starter Tocomocho
- Start date
Glen
Moderator
I think a 'no partition' Europe would be interesting. I've idly speculated on it in the past.
If there were a unification of Germany, it would likely be dominated by Austria. Prussia is in a weaker position and Poland would oppose a Prussian Germany. However, Germany-Austria would then have a buffer state between them and Russia.
If there were a unification of Germany, it would likely be dominated by Austria. Prussia is in a weaker position and Poland would oppose a Prussian Germany. However, Germany-Austria would then have a buffer state between them and Russia.
Problems:
Poland's weak internal structure (aristocratic democracy in a age of increasing absolutism).
Poland's restive south (Cossack Ukraine).
The increasing strength of her neighbours (Prussia, Austria, Russia).
Fix those and Poland will survive.
Give Ukraine to the Russians?
Let Austria turn to Western Europe as opposed to Eastern and Central. Ensure Prussia doesn't become part of Brandenburg. Take out Frederick II while you're at it. Somehow ensure that Russia doesn't unite, so split it among Muscovy, Novgorod, Kiev, etc.
That's what happened OTL. It was a disaster for Poland.
Then you have to POD way back before the partition era.
You're right. But I'm not too sure whether an independent Cossack state would be any better. Co-Poland/Ottoman puppet state?
You're right, couldn't think of anything.
Here's one: have people listen to Prince Eugene of Savoy more.
That way, you would have:
- no Kingdom of Prussia (he thought the title "King in Prussia" for the Elector of Brandenburg would mark the future rise of the house Hohenzollern)
- grab back all of Lorraine and Franche-Comté during the war of Spanish succession (he wanted it, but the emperor at the time did desire more and was ultimately thwarted)
- Maria Theresia married to the Elector of Bavaria
You get an Austria which is finally able to dominate the Holy Roman Empire and reform it thoroughly. It would be busy with the Turks, the French, and internal dissidence. If anything, it will try to stop its west frontier from eroding while making peace with the Sultan or playing him off against Russia. It is very likely that the ties with Hungary will sooner or later be broken (it had always a certain degree of independance, except from 1849 to 1867) and Austria will be forced to make friends or have a replay of the 30 years war. Strenghtening Poland against an ever-encroaching Russia would be in its interest under these circumstances, imo.
Prussia is a nobody, hence in no position to partition Poland.
Russia is still a problem, though.
That way, you would have:
- no Kingdom of Prussia (he thought the title "King in Prussia" for the Elector of Brandenburg would mark the future rise of the house Hohenzollern)
- grab back all of Lorraine and Franche-Comté during the war of Spanish succession (he wanted it, but the emperor at the time did desire more and was ultimately thwarted)
- Maria Theresia married to the Elector of Bavaria
You get an Austria which is finally able to dominate the Holy Roman Empire and reform it thoroughly. It would be busy with the Turks, the French, and internal dissidence. If anything, it will try to stop its west frontier from eroding while making peace with the Sultan or playing him off against Russia. It is very likely that the ties with Hungary will sooner or later be broken (it had always a certain degree of independance, except from 1849 to 1867) and Austria will be forced to make friends or have a replay of the 30 years war. Strenghtening Poland against an ever-encroaching Russia would be in its interest under these circumstances, imo.
Prussia is a nobody, hence in no position to partition Poland.
Russia is still a problem, though.
Burton K Wheeler
Moderator
What would an independent Hungary imply for Poland? My guess is that Hungary would be looking south towards the Ottoman possesions instead of towards Galicia.
My thoughts as well. What I'd guess (and this is a pretty blind shot, as I am not familiar with Hungarian politics pre-1848), they'd try to regain Bosnia. This might even distract Russia long enough for Poland to centralize and regain its strength up to the point where the Austria/HRE sees it as an invaluable (catholic) buffer state.
Maybe start with Sobiesky..... Really brought Poland into European Politics, Esp. with Lithuania. Than there's Vienna. Not bad for a Pollock
lol
The Pope and other foreign dignitaries hailed Sobieski as the "Savior of Vienna and Western European civilization." In a letter to his wife he wrote, "All the common people kissed my hands, my feet, my clothes; others only touched me, saying: 'Ah, let us kiss so valiant a hand!'"
lolThe Pope and other foreign dignitaries hailed Sobieski as the "Savior of Vienna and Western European civilization." In a letter to his wife he wrote, "All the common people kissed my hands, my feet, my clothes; others only touched me, saying: 'Ah, let us kiss so valiant a hand!'"
Well, in this era Russia doesn't have any Slavic li'l buddies in the Balkans to support, so they probably don't care that much if the Hungarians expand south: indeed, given that OTL Catherine the Great proposed carving up the Balkans between Russia and AH, they probably will be supportive. In the 1700's, they're still fighting to clear the Turks from the northern shore of the Black sea, and probably appreciate the help.
Sans Prussia, Austria (and Hungary, if it separates [1]) will probably oppose Russian proposals to partition Poland (OTL, Maria Theresa initially opposed the plan, although she eventually went along with it - "she cried, but she still ate"), but probably will be too distracted with German affairs to prevent Russia from nipping off eastern (Orthodox and Uniate) bits of Poland. Perhaps we get a Poland with eastern borders similar to OTL 1919-1939, but including Lithuania.
Bruce
[1] Perhaps ruled by a cadet branch of the Habsburgs, similar to the 16th century division of the empire into it's Austrian and Castillian branches.
I meant "distract" as "give them inspiration to start yet another russio-turkish war which lasts until mutual exhaustion". They still want Constantinople, after all.
As for Hungary: maybe they don't want to accept the Pragmatic Sanction and thusly are ruled by a different Habsburg branch (which they might grudingly accept)?
As for Hungary: maybe they don't want to accept the Pragmatic Sanction and thusly are ruled by a different Habsburg branch (which they might grudingly accept)?
In my project https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=36940 Russia is taken out because there was no unification of Russia in the first place (Poland offered it’s support to Novgorod (this is the POD) and Ivan III died in battle before marrying Sophia), Prussia will be taken out because it will be reintegrated into the Commonwealth (polish politics paying more attention to the north and king not allowing the other branch of Hohenzoller to inherit) and Austria will stay (thought probably small buffer state of Hungary will stay as well)
Very difficult one. In my project there would be three main ways to achieve that:
-Successful reformation (this will hopefully lead to growing importance of cities and the middle class, as well a pursuing a more “capitalist” economy instead of feudal)
-Sneaky laws ensuring that there is no legislation paralyze if Sejm failed to reach a conclusion . (It’s too late to not let Nihil Novi http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nihil_novi happen, but what if it was later modified in a way that says: “If Sejm was concluded without making any decisions, than Senate may make any decisions as if they were made by Sejm.* If Senate had not make any decisions, than King may make any decisions as if they were made by Sejm.”**)
*This line is for magnates, without it noone is going to support this law during voting in Sejm.
**So, if we have a weak and divided Sejm and sneaky and strong enough to disrupt the work of the Senate and afterwards introduce same laws that would strengthen his position. The King will inevitably face a civil war, but he might win it if he has:
-An army loyal to the king (Probably raised with the help of increased taxes and revenue from cities. You would also need a reason to keep such an army. Cossacks-Hungarians-Russians-Ottomans alliance partitioning Ukraine seems a good one.)
There is also the fact that at the end of XV and beginning of XVI century (only decades after the POD) polish nobles are not yet “corrupted” and many of them care for the country and have a healthy look a the politics.
Difficult one as the main possessions of polish magnates lie in the south, so it is unlikely to just abond them. There is a lot of empty land there, just waiting for proper colonization (main reason Poland did not have oversea colonies).
Not without a fight I afraid – but in the end I think it would be better for them to have it. (and fight for it with ottomans and Hungarians.)
Explained above.
Out of curiosity: when can POD be in this scenario? Most people go quite far back...
I have a sort of scenario for after 1791. First things first: during 1791 or early 1792 Catherine II catches a cold, syfilis or sth, or just plainly fall from stairs - and dies. Now you have a reign of Pavel I, who most likely will be much more pro-Polish than his mother; I think that he would reign at least to 1801, because only that late he can be replaced by another Romanov. So Poland-Lithuania has at least 10 yrs to continue reforming, including getting stronger army (possibly between 65,000 and 100,000) and better fiscal situation (In 1791 tax on gentry and priests has been levied) and modernised legal system (There were works on codifying civil and criminal law already - possibly it would end with sth like Prussian Landrecht). And then play like that: during Pavel I anger on UK in coalition with France take land back from Prussia or Austria, then set Russia in war against Turkey and take back rest of land lost before while being in coalition with - surprise, surprise - France. And then switch sides and get into coalition with Russia against France. And during Congress of Vienna Poland-Lithuania is one of the mayor players...
I have a sort of scenario for after 1791. First things first: during 1791 or early 1792 Catherine II catches a cold, syfilis or sth, or just plainly fall from stairs - and dies. Now you have a reign of Pavel I, who most likely will be much more pro-Polish than his mother; I think that he would reign at least to 1801, because only that late he can be replaced by another Romanov. So Poland-Lithuania has at least 10 yrs to continue reforming, including getting stronger army (possibly between 65,000 and 100,000) and better fiscal situation (In 1791 tax on gentry and priests has been levied) and modernised legal system (There were works on codifying civil and criminal law already - possibly it would end with sth like Prussian Landrecht). And then play like that: during Pavel I anger on UK in coalition with France take land back from Prussia or Austria, then set Russia in war against Turkey and take back rest of land lost before while being in coalition with - surprise, surprise - France. And then switch sides and get into coalition with Russia against France.
And during Congress of Vienna Poland-Lithuania is one of the mayor players...I would say you want the 1400s to about the 1600s. Anything that takes strong Russia out of the equation, like preventing Ivan IV from coming to power (Also known as Ivan the Terrible first Tsar of Russia) whom was an expansionalist. The same can be said about dealing with Ivan the Great, the Fourth Ivan's Grandfather whom expanded the Moscows power, and territory fourfold.(Ivan the Great is also credited with destorying the power of the Novgorod Republic...so if we take out this bloodline and replace it with a series of less exapnsionalist ones we can get a divided Russian East which would give Poland more dominance of the area.
Even farther back and you could take care of the Tuetonic Knights, or the Catholicization of Poland in favour of a Orthodox dominated state. Either way your only dealing with a fraction of the problems that could arise. ITs geographical postion makes it easy to invade, and invade from...meaning either that you have an expanding Polish state or shrinking one, as it isn't in a good postion to remain in a status quo.
My own POD takes place with Maximillian II, HRE, gaining Poland over Stephan IV Bathory. However the amount of mess this includes makes me wish to dive into the intense amount of poltics and warfare needed to reform this era. Getting this outcome would be very difficult.
Even farther back and you could take care of the Tuetonic Knights, or the Catholicization of Poland in favour of a Orthodox dominated state. Either way your only dealing with a fraction of the problems that could arise. ITs geographical postion makes it easy to invade, and invade from...meaning either that you have an expanding Polish state or shrinking one, as it isn't in a good postion to remain in a status quo.
My own POD takes place with Maximillian II, HRE, gaining Poland over Stephan IV Bathory. However the amount of mess this includes makes me wish to dive into the intense amount of poltics and warfare needed to reform this era. Getting this outcome would be very difficult.
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I'd think a better resolution of the crisis in the 1630s and 1640s, which led to the Cossacks going to Russia, would be one solution. Turn it into a triple Commonwealth, with Ruthenia on equal footing with the Poles and Lithuanians.
Prussia is definitely the weak link in the partitions, though. Smack it down anywhere between 1500 and 1700 and that's one problem licked. They *were* a Polish vassal for how long?
Prussia is definitely the weak link in the partitions, though. Smack it down anywhere between 1500 and 1700 and that's one problem licked. They *were* a Polish vassal for how long?
eliminate the dual marriages of the last Hohenzollern Duke to the House of Brandenburg and replace it with...well anyone else ( except Russia or Austria of course) I suppose and Prussia will remain a Duchy/vassal of P-L. Of course if the senior of those two daughters had married into the Polish ruling house...? Brandenburg might object if they still get a marriage to the junior daughter...but they are not in a position to do anything unless they are allied with someone else. ( Why do I have the disturbing feeling that the Swedes might fill that role, mind you...just don't let that happen at the crucial moment.) Actually, now thinkking about it...the Br4andenburg Hohenzollerns have to be kept out of either of these marriages...or it opens the door for them to inherit or acquire in alliance with another power or powers....