Disaster at Sybota

[MrP]

Part of the prelude to the Archidamian War (part I of the Peloponnesian War) was the Battle of Sybota. Corcyra (Corfu), an erstwhile Corinthian colony with a substantial navy, was anxious about Corinth's intentions and allied with Athens. Athens, seeing the chance to have a base on the other side of the Peloponnese, eagerly agreed, and sent a few ships to the aid of the Corcyrans. Shortly afterward, they decided that this fleet was too small, and sent a further squadron of twenty ships. Thucydides' text is here.

The Corcyrans engaged the Corinthians upon the arrival of the first Athenian squadron, and destroyed their opponents' right flank, while losing their own right flank. Both forces reorganised, and the Corinthians, in a superior position, were on the verge of a second attack which could well have smashed the Corcyran fleet, when suddenly the second Athenian squadron was sighted. Fearing it to be the vanguard of a much more substantial fleet, the Corinthian force cautiously withdrew.

The PoD is that for whatever reason* the second Athenian squadron is delayed by a few hours. The battle resumes, and at the end of it the Corcyran fleet has been substantially rendered useless or captured by the Corinthians. Athens now finds herself in an alliance with an island without a defensive fleet, committed to splitting her navy in two to protect against the Corinthians. Does this render Potidaea less likely or more so?

* Dilatory action by the strategoi, difficulties in embarking men, unfavourable winds - any's fine.

Map nabbed from some classical site (Potidaea, Corinth, Athens and Corcyra are underlined):

[MrP]

Ah, it's been brought to my attention that I was unclear above.

So my thinking is that the loss of Corcyra will push Athens away from the Sicilian Expedition - and the loss of thousands of military personnel and a vast fleet at Syracuse.

Instead, Athens will - in the long term - concentrate on securing the Thracian littoral and the colonies on Asia Minor as well as the Aegean Islands. As OTL she'll land forces on the Peloponnese and perform limited amphibious strikes on coastal targets like Epidauros.

In short, there's the potential that Athens won't fall at all, and that the Peloponnesian League will eventually give up the fight against her.

Thoughts?