The inevability of the Mongols

How likely was it that someone would unite the mongol tribes and go on a conquest like Genghis Khan?

Is a mongol invasion something all TL´s that don´t have a POD regarding the mongols have to deal with, or could Genghis Khan be butterflyed away? (He came close to dying several times as a child according to Wikipedia, and he could´ve failed in uniting the mongols as well).

Edit: Please state why if you can

In history, there were two-and-a-half men (AFAIK) who achieved this: Uniting several Central Asian / Mongolian people, and spread war and destruction over half of Eurasia: Attila and the Huns, Genghis and the Mongols, and (the half) Timur. If we don't count Timur, it seems something like a Mongol storm happens about once per millennium. (At least as long as the rest of the world isn't hopelessly stronger - I don't expect another Genghis for the future.)

Frankly I tend to think the events of the Mongols would be considered ASB were it to be in an AH.

Max Sinister said:

In history, there were two-and-a-half men (AFAIK) who achieved this: Uniting several Central Asian / Mongolian people, and spread war and destruction over half of Eurasia: Attila and the Huns, Genghis and the Mongols, and (the half) Timur. If we don't count Timur, it seems something like a Mongol storm happens about once per millennium. (At least as long as the rest of the world isn't hopelessly stronger - I don't expect another Genghis for the future.)

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hmm... an interesting idea, makes it sound something of a natural phenomenon.

But after the Huns, it´s bound to happen at some point that a huge army pops up and swipes through the lands somewhere between 500-1500?

Of course those tribes don´t have much of a chance if there are nations with guns and such, but assuming technology needs a little push from things like mongols such inventions would wait until they´ve gone through their game.

This is a very flawed historical analysis, bear with me. But can this be agreed upon to some extent.

The reason I´m asking is that I´m dying to be rid of the darn Mongols for my TL idea.

More things change, the more they stay the same.

Max Sinister said:

In history, there were two-and-a-half men (AFAIK) who achieved this: Uniting several Central Asian / Mongolian people, and spread war and destruction over half of Eurasia: Attila and the Huns, Genghis and the Mongols, and (the half) Timur. If we don't count Timur, it seems something like a Mongol storm happens about once per millennium. (At least as long as the rest of the world isn't hopelessly stronger - I don't expect another Genghis for the future.)

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I can see another Genghis appearing in the future if the West doesn't wean itself off of oil and find other sources of usable energy.

I can picture hordes of horsemen charging against improvised pillboxs (ie:tanks without gas )

What I would love to see is a Middle East united under the likes of another Saladin, but that seems unlikly, at present.

Not a natural phenomenon, more statistical: Leaders like Genghis aren't completely unique, but at least very rare. He doesn't only have to know how to lead a war (strategy, tactics, logistics - ok, given the Mongol lifestyle, this wasn't that necessary, the horses ate grass and the soldiers ate horse meat), he has to be very good with people (especially if he has to unite a lot of tribes who used to fight with each other for long time), he also should know about laws, organization and technology (Genghis reformed the laws and reorganized the tribal fighters into a real army)... one could say that he could choose advisors to do that, but if HE can't tell whether someone makes a good advisor, then what?

TechRat said:

I can see another Genghis appearing in the future if the West doesn't wean itself off of oil and find other sources of usable energy.

I can picture hordes of horsemen charging against improvised pillboxs (ie:tanks without gas )

What I would love to see is a Middle East united under the likes of another Saladin, but that seems unlikly, at present.

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I don't know if I'd love to see that... but then again it could be a good thing for the world.
I agree that we can't discount the possibility of a ghengis/atilla like occurance in the future. It would require something along the lines of what TechRat describes... or else a central asian leader who is really, really, good at guerilla tactics, sabotage, etc. This is implausible, even ASB-ish, but so was the Mongol Horde. It could happen.

But the Mongol riders didn't have to fight tanks, planes and modern rockets. Not to mention weapons of mass destruction.

Look at terrorist groups today... one could argue that our own fear of using WMDs makes them ineffectual, while terrorists are unafraid to use their more primitive versions of the same.
I'm not saying it could be done by guys on horseback (unless western civilization regresses a ridiculous amount), but as long as they are decently mobile, and unafraid of razing entire cities (ala the mongols) I think a modern terror campaign could actually be successful. Look at the trouble the strongest military in the world is having in the Middle East today... we simply do not have the heart to do what it takes to conquer and control an area... we are too comfortable at home and love peace too much, and using WMDs against the bad guys is taboo. If they are willing to bring it, and we aren't, it's conceivable that a central asian or middle eastern nation could actually do some conquering.

To me, the strange thing is that the hordes don't become unified more, not less. I think it's really more of a function of the Empires they stand ready to loot constantly. As long as these polities can field armies strong enough to fight off even several tribes of the barbarians there is no good reason, but once weakness is seen all of them will come together, much like sharks who sense a wounded whale.

Max Sinister said:

In history, there were two-and-a-half men (AFAIK) who achieved this: Uniting several Central Asian / Mongolian people, and spread war and destruction over half of Eurasia: Attila and the Huns, Genghis and the Mongols, and (the half) Timur. If we don't count Timur, it seems something like a Mongol storm happens about once per millennium. (At least as long as the rest of the world isn't hopelessly stronger - I don't expect another Genghis for the future.)

Click to expand...

Well, the Huns weren't terrorizing European anywhere near the time they were terrorizing China. So, Atilla doesn't count. The Mongols under Genghis Khan and company were able to attack pretty much the entire Eurasian landmass.

That said, I'd say that there's a fair chance that at least once during history, some central asian leader is able to expand in both directions. Oh, and to specify, I voted 7, on the presumption that we were talking about any central asian nomadic tribe. If we're talking just Mongols, then I'd say closer to 3 or 4, just because its a narrower time frame.

In my opinion Genghis Khan was very lucky. He found a divided China and had access to "modern" weapons (gunpowder, stirrups, composite bow, etc.) that earlier steppe leaders had not. Contrary to the general idea of many people, there were many Mongol leaders that unificated more or less the steppe tribes and invaded neighboring countries. For example, the Hsiung-nu khan Mao-tun (209-107 b.C.) unified most of today Mongolia after the defeat of the Hsien-pi, Tungus and Khitan, and forced the Han Dinasty to pay a tribute of cereals, silk and women slaves. Almost 2000 years later, the Mongol leader Galdan (death 1697) conquered all lands from Tibet to Manchuria. However, he was cornered by two giant and strong empires, the Russian and the Qing, and was defeated by the Emperor Kangxi after the Chinese signed a non-agression pact with the Russians at Nerchinsk (1689). With a divided China (and without Russia), it's very possible that Mao-Tun, Galdan or another steppe guy could became other Genghis Khan. So, the Mongol invasions of the 13th century weren't near impossible.

DominusNovus said:

Well, the Huns weren't terrorizing European anywhere near the time they were terrorizing China. So, Atilla doesn't count.

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Er? Attila and his sons made the Romans pay tribute and came as far as France (which the Mongols didn't).

Very low probability of the tribes being united and going rampaging (as said only really happened twice we know of) however with there being so many chances for it to happen...

Max Sinister said:

Er? Attila and his sons made the Romans pay tribute and came as far as France (which the Mongols didn't).

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But what did they do to China at the same time? That's his point.

Max Sinister said:

Er? Attila and his sons made the Romans pay tribute and came as far as France (which the Mongols didn't).

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But Mongols held vaster teritories than Attila. And Attila's "Huns" were local barbarians.

rewster said:

Look at terrorist groups today... one could argue that our own fear of using WMDs makes them ineffectual, while terrorists are unafraid to use their more primitive versions of the same.
I'm not saying it could be done by guys on horseback (unless western civilization regresses a ridiculous amount), but as long as they are decently mobile, and unafraid of razing entire cities (ala the mongols) I think a modern terror campaign could actually be successful. Look at the trouble the strongest military in the world is having in the Middle East today... we simply do not have the heart to do what it takes to conquer and control an area... we are too comfortable at home and love peace too much, and using WMDs against the bad guys is taboo. If they are willing to bring it, and we aren't, it's conceivable that a central asian or middle eastern nation could actually do some conquering.

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I don´t think that using atomic bombs would be very effective in fighting gurerrillas and terrorists...

In my opinion Genghis Khan was very lucky. He found a divided China and had access to "modern" weapons (gunpowder, stirrups, composite bow, etc.) that earlier steppe leaders had not. Contrary to the general idea of many people, there were many Mongol leaders that unificated more or less the steppe tribes and invaded neighboring countries. For example, the Hsiung-nu khan Mao-tun (209-107 b.C.) unified most of today Mongolia after the defeat of the Hsien-pi, Tungus and Khitan, and forced the Han Dinasty to pay a tribute of cereals, silk and women slaves. Almost 2000 years later, the Mongol leader Galdan (death 1697) conquered all lands from Tibet to Manchuria. However, he was cornered by two giant and strong empires, the Russian and the Qing, and was defeated by the Emperor Kangxi after the Chinese signed a non-agression pact with the Russians at Nerchinsk (1689). With a divided China (and without Russia), it's very possible that Mao-Tun, Galdan or another steppe guy could became other Genghis Khan. So, the Mongol invasions of the 13th century weren't near impossible.

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This is interesting Tocomocho, so you´re saying that against a united China Genghis Khan loses.

That sounds like a POD, to bad I´m working on another one right now

Also a Mao-Tun would be interesting. A mongol tribe conquering Russia and north China, (assuming China is divided by civil war) might scare middle Europe and even Britain, France and Spain shitless. It´d be an interesting scenario, although horsenomads wouldn´t last long I think once they would reach the range of European 17th century weapons.



I´d like to drop in a thought. So essentially we agree upon that the leader must be a really good one to unite the tribes. (It´s rather logical isn´t it...)

If a POD occurs befor Genghis Khan is born, one must question whether or not Genghis Khan would come to exist, and if we are fundamental butterflyists going by the chaos theory, the man whom the world knows as Genghis doesn´t come to exist.

In that case, one must question whether or not the Mongols do unite and attack China and Europe. It seems logical that they don´t, unless for a pure coincidence that ATL has a man being born with the same luck and capabilities as Genghis himself.

What do you think?

I'm kinda patiently waiting for China to take over Mongolia, have mongols infiltrate the Chinese government and ultimatly rule over Eurasia.

Fabilius said:

I don´t think that using atomic bombs would be very effective in fighting gurerrillas and terrorists...

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Hmm. Good point. But I was thinking more along the lines of a government-sponsered terror campaign... I think such a government might think twice, if they actually believed we would come down on them with nukes. But we wouldn't... at almost any cost... so they are pretty much free from that concern.

Max Sinister said:

In history, there were two-and-a-half men (AFAIK) who achieved this: Uniting several Central Asian / Mongolian people, and spread war and destruction over half of Eurasia: Attila and the Huns, Genghis and the Mongols, and (the half) Timur. If we don't count Timur, it seems something like a Mongol storm happens about once per millennium. (At least as long as the rest of the world isn't hopelessly stronger - I don't expect another Genghis for the future.)

Click to expand...

If you’re counting The Huns, What about the Turkish incursions into the Middle East during the 10- 11th centuries? (Seems more related to the Mongol Conquests then Attila’s Huns, really)