Penny Flick, Penny Toss - Part 2

Penny Flick Part 2

The 1860s sees the US Civil War when the administration of Hannibal Hamlin is unable to prevent the secession of the South after more than a decade of growing estrangement. The Mexican Empire officially remains neutral, though from Tejas and the Nuevo Mexico provinces volunteers for the South enter the conflict. The Iturbides keep a strong garrison on the borders of Baja California and US California, so as to prevent tensions from spilling over into actions that could threaten war. The naval powers, Britain and France, are less reticent. Britain, having fought two wars with the United States in the last three decades, takes the lead in supporting the Confederacy, and King Ferdinand of Orleans leads France in his ally's wake, keen not to let any significant opportunity for influence and new markets slip through inaction. Faced with this variety of foes, Hamlin's administration is unable to prevent the gradual wearing down of Union forces. The delayed secession of Kentucky, and the reconquest of Western Virginia leads to a Confederate momentum that is hard to deal with. General Robert E Lee, ironically one of the heroes of the California War of the mid 1840s and a man who had faced the British in combat before, now leads a march on Washington DC supported by a British naval expeditionary force. With the Royal Navy in the Potomac and the government in Washington cut off, Vice President John C. Fremont finds himself having to deal with demands to surrender from King George V's government and that of King Ferdinand. Confederate President Jefferson Davis is less keen on ending the war at a moment when military victory seems to be within sight, but is forced to follow the lead of his allies. Unable to contact Hamlin, Fremont invokes articles of the US Constitution that declares the president unable to perform his duties and assumes the top office. Within the month he has signed the Treaty of Fredericksburg, ending the Civil War and recognising the independence of the South.

Previous posts in this thread to be found at
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=3657

Grey Wolf

From the original Penny Flick, I have altered the results of the 1860 election - Hannibal Hamlin seems far more likely to result in a Southern secession, and this period was one where the old political parties were falling apart and being replaced by new ones so the emergence of a Republican to follow a Whig should be no great confusion, even if the 'natural' opposition in the Democrats are not in the winning place as one might expect.

As previously stated, the 1860s sees the stabilisation of the Austrian Empire after a period of crisis resulting from the successful Hungarian secession. With France distracted in the Americas, Austria is able to defeat the ambitions of Piedmont-Sardinia within the Italian peninsular.

Britain, although victorious in the Americas is withdrawn from events on the continent, having problems of its own within Ireland.

Russia, although defeated over Poland has regained some international prestige in their support for Hungarian independence.

Prussia has been biding its time - under the Regency, Friedrich Wilhelm IV has been retired to the background. Upon his death, his son Friedrich Wilhelm V ascends to the throne with ambitions of his own. However, he is of a conservative bent and rejects advice to take advantage of Austrian weakness and distraction. He prefers to work for a more careful timetable.

Grey Wolf

The crisis over Schleswig-Holstein never breaks into war here. The preferred option of the duchies becoming independent within the German Confederation is achieved with the diplomatic pressure of Prussia and Austria, being added to by more ephemeral pressures from Britain, Hannover and (Habsburg) Poland. Not daring to press the issue to war on these terms, Denmark negotiates a treaty which allows them to retain certain priveleges and ensures the true independence of the duchy within the German Confederation.

We now come to the later 1860s...

Grey Wolf

One might well expect something of a naval race, with Britain, France and the USA each vying to develop a modern and effective naval force. Without the Crimean War per se there have been different developmental paths, and the main impetus has come from the European involvement in the US Civil War. With Fremont defeated in 1864, and the Democrat, Joseph Lane becomes President. A hero of the Oregon War and one who emerged from the US Civil War with his reputation intact after returning West to wage its successful defence, he has a strong belief in the eventual destiny of the United States. His administration heals many of the rifts caused by defeat, and embarks upon a significant military build-up, determined that the Union never again find itself too weak to win a major war.

UNITED STATES
Presidents

1832 - 1836
Andrew Jackson
Democrat

1836 - 1840
Martin Van Buren
Democrat

1840 - 1852
Henry Clay
Whig

1852 - 1856
Lewis Cass
Democrat

1856 - 1860
Millard Fillmore
Whig

1860 - 1863
Hannibal Hamlin
Republican

1863 - 1864
John C Fremont
Republican

1864 - 1872
John Lane
Democrat

Grey Wolf

A major Cuban Revolution occurs in 1868. King Juan III's Spanish government sends large concentrations of troops to put down the rebellions, and ends up sucked into a major war which begins to sap support at home for his personal style of government. In 1871 after a major reverse, and amidst mounting death tolls, a rebellion breaks out in Spain itself.

President Lane's administration gets involved in Cuba, looking to nurture a new nation as an ally in a Caribbean dominated by the Confederacy, Mexico and the Maritime Powers. Juan III's overthrow in 1872 coincides with the US election, won by the Republican Henry Wilson on the charge that Lane's administration had become lazy and lackadaisical and was not promoting American interests in Cuba as energetically as he could.

Taking office in 1873, President Wilson takes advantage of the Republican victory in the civil war in Spain, and sends an expeditionary force to Cuba to unite with the rebels. The Confederacy protests but does nothing, whilst the Iturbides in Mexico have problems of their own in Yucatan. Seeking once again to divert attention from domestic problems, the government of King George V of Britain moves to support the colonial regime in Santiago.

In July 1873 a misunderstanding leads to an opening of fire between a British ironclad and two Union frigates off Santiago. The US Congress is not slow to support a declaration of war, the first move of which is to land reinforcements on Cuba whilst the seas are still open for them to do so.

King Ferdinand of France is in the final months of his fatal illness, and his government makes no overt move other than to issue a statement in support of Britain. The Republicans in Madrid are at a loss whether to negotiate with the Americans or to make a deal with the colonial regime which is still loyal to the deposed King Juan III.

Thus, for the rest of 1873 it is purely the United States versus the British in this Western hemisphere conflict

Grey Wolf

Although lambasting Lane's administration publically, Henry Wilson has much cause to be grateful to his predecessor in the first months of the war. The Royal Navy, already esconced in force in Santiago attempts to cut all communication with the United States, but the large Union navy constructed under Lane's oversight achieves a significant victory in a clash off Los Colorados, on the Western coast of Cuba. This reopening of the supply lines is used to good effect by the USA to build up stocks for their forces, and replenish amunition. They also land several batteries of field guns, and a handful of modern locomotives.

The defeat at Los Colorados causes consternation within London. King George V loses his Prime Minister as a coalition government comes to power. However, when faced with the reality of the war which has now seen US incursions into New Brunswick, Ontario and British Oregon, the new government finds it has no choice but to continue the war.

The death of King Ferdinand of France brings thirty-five year-old Louis Philippe II to the throne in Paris. However, the dire state of the British position and the uncertain situation within London are sufficient to prevent him from urging the assembly to support the British.

During 1874 British attempts to rescue the situation take on an increasingly desperate tone. Indian Army units are landed in British Oregon but are soon forced into the retreat over the Rockies and into British Columbia. Attempts to raise additional units to bolster these forces and replace losses leads to a general Indian Mutiny across the sub-continent which proves impossible to subdue in the immediate period.

An American drive on Ottawa is halted in the plains, but New Brunswick is invested by US forces, only forces holding out in the Notre Dame mountains continuing to hold territory for the British.

A naval expeditionary force to Cuba is intercepted by the Americans off Great Inagua in the Southern Bahamas. Although the battle is inconclusive with equal losses on both sides, these losses prevent the British from achieving their primary objective and they only able to reinforce the forces around Santiago rather than to go over to the offensive.

President Wilson dies in 1875, and is succeeded by his inexperienced but ambitious vice-president

Grey Wolf

John A Logan is 49 years of old, a great orator and has a large veteran following. He believes that the secession of the Confederacy was a disaster for the United States, and seeing the Confederacy's main ally, Britain, on the ropes he decides to widen the war and seek to erase a stain of dishnour upon the nation.

The CSA is in no fit state for war. After the end of the second 6-year presidency, the third has opened with a major clash between states righters and those who wish to build up a larger navy against the very real Union threat. The House is in impasse and there is very much a feeling that the 'Golden Era' of secession and the immediate post-independence period is now very much over.

Faced with demands from Logan's administration, the Confederacy is unable to come up with anything approaching a coherent reply, and when Union forces begin crossing into Western Virginia, being met by popular support amongst the denizens of those counties that had in the civil war attempted to secede from the Confederacy, a rapid collapse appears probable.

However, King Louis Philippe II is not about to sit by and see a major French market and aligned nation collapse. His government issues an ultimatum calling for the halt of the march of Union forces, and that they should not pass beyond the previous boundaries of Western Virginia. Knowing nothing of the new French king, and under-estimating the steel in his backbone, Logan ignores the French ultimatum, making no reply and sending his troops on a march for the Confederate capital, looking to end the war before it has really begun

Grey Wolf

The French declaration of war coincides with a general mobilisation by the Mexican Empire. In London, these events save the British government from collapse, but faced with the Indian Mutiny, a renewed outbreak of violence in India, and heavy commitments in Cuba itself, Britain is only able to send a token force to accompany the French expeditionary force. The French sail first for Guadeloupe, then to Mississippi, thus landing hundreds of miles away from the front. However, the experience of the British fleet off Cuba has made the French naval commanders cautious and they are not willing to risk a major encounter with the Union fleet, at least until after the army is landed

1876 sees the fall of Richmond, but with French forces stabilising the rest of the Confederate line, the CSA's government relocates to Birmingham, and the army continues in the fight. The small Confederate navy is built up, largely with French loans, and the Duc d'Aumale, Prince Henri of Orleans, the uncle of King Louis Philippe II arrives to take charge of the Confederate naval forces, having played a major role in the build-up of the French fleet under his late brother, King Ferdinand

Grey Wolf

Maybe I should give this another name ? If I said it had a large amount of US Civil War ATL's, Anglo-American conflict etc throughout the nineteenth century maybe more people would respond ?

Grey Wolf

Within Asia, the Russian Empire is taking advantage of British distraction, and now the Indian Mutiny, to consolidate its hold on Khiva, Bokhara and Khokand, and now to move into Kashgaria and even Tibet.

Despite American overtures, the Russian Empire displays no overt interest in entering the war against the British. They are benefitting from not being involved, on British distraction etc, and on having the freedom of movement resultant from that.

Chinese weakness is giving Russia the ability to continue its advance of influence, into Outer Mongolia, and into Tibet where Britain is now powerless to prevent them from gaining paramount influence over Lhasa

Grey Wolf

1876 is an election year, and in the USA it is being fought under the shadow of a war now turning sour. Royal Navy reinforcements, combined with the French fleet have regained control of the seas around Southern Cuba, whilst the main Union fleet has suffered losses against the Confederate coastal forces, and is beginning to feel over-stretched.

In Madrid, the Republican movement finds itself undermined by the turn of events in the Caribbean, and the royalist commanders who are in alliance with the British. In late May, a royalist revolt breaks out across Navarre-Basque Country, soon spreading into Catalonia. Don Carlos, the Principe de Asturias returns from exile in France to lead the rebellion in his father's name

Grey Wolf

Facing a strong challenge from Democratic senator for Indiana, Daniel W Voorhees, President Logan resolves to win the war before the campaigning season of 1876 is out.

Whilst Union forces drive deep into Confederate territory, another force strikes into central Canada towards Ottawa. The Union fleet launches a major attack on Anglo-French forces off Cuba, in tandem with a renewed US-Cuban push towards Santiago.

In Birmingham, the states rights forces agree to a compromise with the central authority under French auspices, and the CSA begins to get its act together. Newly-formed units come under a central command and the states begin to target manufacturing and supplies towards the war effort.

In Mexico City, the French ambassador meets with the Iturbides. Emperor Agustin II has only recently succeeded his father, Angel I, as ruler of the empire and is more open to the idea of getting involved in North American affairs. His government signs an agreement with the French - if the Union forces are driven onto the defensive, then Mexico will enter the war

With this agreement in place, King Louis Philippe II convinces the assembly leaders in Paris to vote for additional funds and manpower to aid the CSA. A second fleet sails for the Americas, heading once again in a round-about route to the Southern Confederate coast.

Grey Wolf

Very interesting so far. I always like TLs with Anglo-American conflicts.

The Fall/Autumn of 1876 sees a series of major battles across the Confederacy. The fall of Ottawa cannot compensate for the defeat of Union armies in the campaign of 1876 in the South. As the end of the campaigning season approaches, a combined Franco-Confederate force drives them out of Virginia and sweeps around to threaten Washington DC

The US presidential election is fought in these circumstances. The entry into the war of the Mexican Empire only adds to the pressures that Logan is under. As San Diego is put under heavy siege, the American public reject his administration and vote for Voorhees in a landslide election victory

1877 opens with the lame-duck Logan administration attempting to hold the Southern front and prevent the envelopment of Washington. With the Union itself under threat, he performs the last act of his presidency and evacuats the majority of the Cuban expeditionary force.

This has serious repurcussions in Spain. The news that the royalist commander and their British allies are now firmly on the offensive brings the Republican government to its knees. Don Carlos leads an assault upon Madrid, and with the fall of the capital, King Juan III returns to take up his throne

Grey Wolf

tetsu-katana said:

Very interesting so far. I always like TLs with Anglo-American conflicts.

Click to expand...

Thank you for your comments I am trying to be a bit different, though am really now exploring where this might go

What do you think of the disunited Confederacy ? One of the complaints about Turtledove is that his CSA is so strong 20 or so years after victory whereas there is a strong school of thought that thinks it would be much weaker as the states take power from the executive

Any other detailed comments would be welcome

Grey Wolf

President Voorhee's March 1877 inauguration is followed swiftly afterwards by a request for an armistice and the opening of peace negotiations. These drag on until June, but the Treaty of Washington brings to an end the conflict.

The USA gains Northern Oregon (OTL Washington state) and the Southern 1/3 of New Brunswick. However, they have to evacuate Ottawa and see Canada return to Britain

The Confederacy is again recognised as an independent state by the USA

The USA evacuates all remaining personnel from Cuba and recognises Spanish control there

The Southern/Eastern half of San Diego county is ceded to Mexico, but the city remains in American hands

Grey Wolf

Although no direct gains are made by France, the increase of influence in the CSA. and the success in war are able to bolster Louis Philippe II's government and justify its expenditure and involvement in war. Closer relations with the Mexican Empire also see great opportunities for French investment, the booming mineral and nascent oil opportunities promising great returns to French companies

Within Britain, the victory doesn't settle the parliamentary crisis. New elections, fought in the ongoing shadow of the Indian Mutiny and crisis in Ireland, return a parliament evenly divided between Tories, Liberals and Radicals. King George V prefers to choose a Tory-dominated coalition but riots and demonstrations across the country influence the Liberal leadership, and a Liberal-Radical coalition enters office

The recall of the Royal Navy and expeditionary force from Cuba lead to a renewed upswing in the Cuban rebellion. From victory in the civil war, King Juan III is now faced with dealing with a continuing and more desperate revolution in the Caribbean

Grey Wolf

Grey Wolf said:

Thank you for your comments I am trying to be a bit different, though am really now exploring where this might go

What do you think of the disunited Confederacy ? One of the complaints about Turtledove is that his CSA is so strong 20 or so years after victory whereas there is a strong school of thought that thinks it would be much weaker as the states take power from the executive

Any other detailed comments would be welcome

Grey Wolf

Click to expand...

The disunited Confederacy does seem different than most other "CSA Victorious" type TLs, which is odd considering that's probably how it would really happen anyway. Their excuse for the ACW was states' rights, so why would it change after the war?

Another thing I liked was the acknowledgment that the CSA wouldn't be ready for another war anytime soon after the ACW, (and in my opinion probably not until the late 19th century or early 20th, depending on how fast they industrialized.)

All in all it's a very interesting TL, and different that alot of other ones I've read. But you might want to change the name of the thread, as you suggested earlier. (Also, might I suggest a map at some point?)

tetsu-katana said:

The disunited Confederacy does seem different than most other "CSA Victorious" type TLs, which is odd considering that's probably how it would really happen anyway. Their excuse for the ACW was states' rights, so why would it change after the war?

Another thing I liked was the acknowledgment that the CSA wouldn't be ready for another war anytime soon after the ACW, (and in my opinion probably not until the late 19th century or early 20th, depending on how fast they industrialized.)

All in all it's a very interesting TL, and different that alot of other ones I've read. But you might want to change the name of the thread, as you suggested earlier. (Also, might I suggest a map at some point?)

Click to expand...

I suppose the question is, what happens within the CSA after its victory in the mid 1870s ? The centralist forces will have been bolstered by example - i.e. the country only stayed together because the states eventualy agreed to pool their resources and work together properly. And precedent will be important - if things fall away again as they did after the ACW then the nation could be in peril again

One also wonders what the influence of the French will be, it certainly won't be insignificant

The navy is one thing, organisation of the army, logisitics etc another, but there would be an effect on the population, on politics and on attitudes sort of by osmosis

Grey Wolf

The historical dialectic is a funny thing. People will be asking what about German Unification ? They will ask because OTL it occurred in this period. But they do not ask much about why no German unification 1815-1860s, merely why did it not happen in an alternate 1860s-1870s... Prussia under Friedrich Wilhelm V has ambitions but not of the same kind of Bismarck, and will play a take it or leave it waiting game. There is no love of war, as such, no desire to plunge Europe into crisis, just to take a chance if it comes up.

Emperor Franz Josef I has succeeded his father, Franz Karl, in 1872 and has an overwhelming policy aim of keeping the empire together. With the Hungarian lands lost and the Polish lands ceded to the allied Habsburg kingdom of Poland, the main problem for Austria is the Italian lands. Whilst Piedmont-Sardinia was decisively defeated in the 1860s, it is obvious that problems will raise their head again should Austria again be weakened. Franz Josef works hard to ensure that this never happens.

Austria, including Croatia-Slavonia-Dalmatia (but not Dubrovnik which is part of Montenegro) as well as Lombardy-Venetia embarks upon a major naval construction programme from the late 1870s

In Janina, the Muslim King also begins the construction of a major fleet. This is met with a similar response from the Oldenburg kingdom of Greece, thus sparking an ironclad naval race in the Western Mediterranean. To differing degrees, it is taken up by the Ottoman Empire, Egypt and Russia with its squadrons based in the Black Sea but serving in the Med

Grey Wolf