Italy stays neutral

  • Thread starter Deleted member 1487
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Deleted member 1487

What if the Italians had remained neutral in the first world war? Lets say that AH buys them off with the sale of south tyrol (italian speaking parts only) and promises of considering further land transfers after the war. I know this is bordering on ASB, but bear with me. How does this effect the war? When italy got invovled it was another front that the Austrians had to fight on, which sapped strength from more important theaters. Without this drain, can the austrians put up a better showing against the Russians? Maybe no Bursilov offensive that basically mortally wounds AH? Maybe then no Romania? Overall this helps the central powers, but the Allies don't have to prop up this weak ally and can use the extra troops and equipment on the west front. So, is it a wash? Any thoughts?
 
The Austrian army wasn't the strongest, but it'd make at least a small difference... do they knock out Greece? Do they advance further into Russia, so the revolution happens in 1916 already? Is Falkenhayn more successful (he gave up and made place for Hindenburg and Ludendorff after Romania declared war), so Germany doesn't choose to defeat Russia first?
 

Deleted member 1487

I don't know what AH's next move would be as they are not my area of expertise. I don't think that the greeks actively were fighting against the central powers as they were coerced into siding with the allies, because they were occupied by them. With the serbs crushed and the bulgarians in the war, I don't think romania will turn against the central powers. With no distractions and russia fighting three powers I think austria will have time to rest and retrain their armies and later field a more effective fighting force. Without the beating sustained later in the war on the russian front, the forces of AH won't be so brittle and should be able to stand up to the fighting better.
 
By July 1915 the amount of AH forces the Italians were tying down was not trivial. I believe Arthur Banks shows something like 234 battalions and 155 batteries. So the initial delta is that the AH have more resouces for the 1915 Eastern Front offensive. They should be able to advance as far as Tarnopol.

Other deltas:

The Balkan campaign could be different. Maybe Bulgaria enters 2 weeks earlier. Also the AH should be able to contribute more. Conrad wanted to include a thrust to Usnitse to cut off Serbian line of retreat but Mackensen felt he did not have enough to do that and get the rail line to Istanbul open ASAP but with more KuK forces it might get tried and the Balkans would resolve earlier with fewer Serbs evacuated through Corfu.

Another delta would be that Italy would remain a leak in the blockade.

Come 1916 there would be no Trentino offensive. This should mean a less successful Brusilov offensive. Falkebhayn may not have to send any significant forces east. This may let him take Verdun in which case he may keep his job longer. The loss of Verdun will not destroy French morale but it may cause Clemenceau to become premier earlier.

Rumania will decline to enter the Entente.
 
By July 1915 the amount of AH forces the Italians were tying down was not trivial. I believe Arthur Banks shows something like 234 battalions and 155 batteries. So the initial delta is that the AH have more resouces for the 1915 Eastern Front offensive. They should be able to advance as far as Tarnopol.

Other deltas:

The Balkan campaign could be different. Maybe Bulgaria enters 2 weeks earlier. Also the AH should be able to contribute more. Conrad wanted to include a thrust to Usnitse to cut off Serbian line of retreat but Mackensen felt he did not have enough to do that and get the rail line to Istanbul open ASAP but with more KuK forces it might get tried and the Balkans would resolve earlier with fewer Serbs evacuated through Corfu.

Another delta would be that Italy would remain a leak in the blockade.

Come 1916 there would be no Trentino offensive. This should mean a less successful Brusilov offensive. Falkebhayn may not have to send any significant forces east. This may let him take Verdun in which case he may keep his job longer. The loss of Verdun will not destroy French morale but it may cause Clemenceau to become premier earlier.

Rumania will decline to enter the Entente.

Tom

Those are accurate but just to make clear they won't all be detrimental to the allies. Keeping Rumania out of the war would mean Russia has a shorter line to defend. Also while they might by them the central powers won't be able to simply loot Rumanian resources.

Similarly after the 1917 defeat Italy may have been a net burden for the allies as the British and French had to concentrate forces to help them, out. Italy helped tied down a lot of Austrian troops from mid 1915 onwards but, given logistical problems they might not have been massive useful once Serbia was knocked out of the war.

Without the Italians the allies would have more concern about the Austrian fleet but I don't think it would have made a massive difference, given how little use was made of it before Italy entered the conflict.

Steve
 

Redbeard

Banned
Tom

Those are accurate but just to make clear they won't all be detrimental to the allies. Keeping Rumania out of the war would mean Russia has a shorter line to defend. Also while they might by them the central powers won't be able to simply loot Rumanian resources.

Similarly after the 1917 defeat Italy may have been a net burden for the allies as the British and French had to concentrate forces to help them, out. Italy helped tied down a lot of Austrian troops from mid 1915 onwards but, given logistical problems they might not have been massive useful once Serbia was knocked out of the war.

Without the Italians the allies would have more concern about the Austrian fleet but I don't think it would have made a massive difference, given how little use was made of it before Italy entered the conflict.

Steve

But wouldn't it make a difference if the Austro-Hungarians, after Russia has quitted (as in OTL) can send the major part of their Army (80+ Divisions) to the west front instead of Italy?

I know that army had its problems, but some of the units were extremely good, of at least stormtrooper quality, and the rest hardly significantly worse than the depleted 2nd rank German Divisions holding most of the westfront in late WWI.

The spring offensive of 1918 turning into a Caporetto might turn the war.

Regards

Steffen Redbeard
 
Tom

Those are accurate but just to make clear they won't all be detrimental to the allies. Keeping Rumania out of the war would mean Russia has a shorter line to defend. Also while they might by them the central powers won't be able to simply loot Rumanian resources.

Similarly after the 1917 defeat Italy may have been a net burden for the allies as the British and French had to concentrate forces to help them, out. Italy helped tied down a lot of Austrian troops from mid 1915 onwards but, given logistical problems they might not have been massive useful once Serbia was knocked out of the war.

Without the Italians the allies would have more concern about the Austrian fleet but I don't think it would have made a massive difference, given how little use was made of it before Italy entered the conflict.

Steve

In the long run not being able to plunder Rumanian resouces will hurt though
trade with neutral Italy may offset it. In the short run not having to invade Rumania would mean more divisions available to counter the latter phase of the Somme. It may also increase CP strength in Palestine.
 
But wouldn't it make a difference if the Austro-Hungarians, after Russia has quitted (as in OTL) can send the major part of their Army (80+ Divisions) to the west front instead of Italy?

I know that army had its problems, but some of the units were extremely good, of at least stormtrooper quality, and the rest hardly significantly worse than the depleted 2nd rank German Divisions holding most of the westfront in late WWI.

The spring offensive of 1918 turning into a Caporetto might turn the war.

Regards

Steffen Redbeard

Even in OTL with AH starting to fall apart it was able to send several divisions to the west in early 1918. They were mostly deployed in the Vosges. Mountain warfare was one aspect of warfare where the AH were probably superior to the Germans. The best AH mountain units were deployed against Italy but if they were deployed in the Vosges in spring 1918 one could have a Caporetto in the Vosges possibly with the goal of taking Belfort.
 
If we all agree Italy, and Romania are out of the war then I think AH may do much better. For yes Russia has less land to defend but the same goes to AH. Next more troops freed up, either means more forces shifted to the eastern front, or less resources spent.

I think if AH fought Russia on the defensive, while striking at Serbia and holding Greece at bay with Bulgaria then they could have quite a stockpile of supplies ready to go_Of course once America gets into it the war is over, but during that brief time when German only had to face France and England, AH sending troops to the western front could help out. They could hold the rear while the Germans (who I think I can say are superior without offending anyone) can move out trying the offensive moves they wanted. As earlier stated the resource AH has avalible fighting only two fronts may get shipped to help its ally, plus add in Italian, and Romanian trading.
 
Also, I would think that if Russia started clearly falling apart Romania might join the Central Powers in order to get Bessarabia and be on the winning side.
 
Also what is Italy stays out of WW2.
Italy was not ready for war in 1940 so POD is that Italy stays out of WW2.

Any comments ???
 
If we all agree Italy, and Romania are out of the war then I think AH may do much better. For yes Russia has less land to defend but the same goes to AH. Next more troops freed up, either means more forces shifted to the eastern front, or less resources spent.

I think if AH fought Russia on the defensive, while striking at Serbia and holding Greece at bay with Bulgaria then they could have quite a stockpile of supplies ready to go_Of course once America gets into it the war is over, but during that brief time when German only had to face France and England, AH sending troops to the western front could help out. They could hold the rear while the Germans (who I think I can say are superior without offending anyone) can move out trying the offensive moves they wanted. As earlier stated the resource AH has avalible fighting only two fronts may get shipped to help its ally, plus add in Italian, and Romanian trading.

Germany might not resort to unrestricted submarine warfare in this case. Russia might collapse earlier and Germany could exploit Russia's resources earlier.

Romania might enter the war on the CP side. It would have receieved Besserebia from Russia and Bukovina from Austria-Hungary if it had sided with the CP.
 

Deleted member 1487

I'm not very good with stories. I just like reading them.:) Every now and then i get a few ideas, but I could give it a try.
 
I'm not very good with stories. I just like reading them.:) Every now and then i get a few ideas, but I could give it a try.

If you take a shot a few thinks to consider:

1] Does Giolitti replace Salandra as Prime Minister? Giolitti was somewhat friendly with the Austrians and they would likely trust his promises of neutrality (even though Giolittismo was synonymous with corruption) while they would be deeply suspicious of Salandra. Also Giolitti would encourage trade with the CP and resist RN attempts to impose a quota on Italian imports.

2] Mussolini was a paid schill of the Entente.

3] Pope Benedict's peace proposals may get taken a little more seriously

4] Will Falkenhayn take Verdun?
 

Deleted member 1487

When I get home from work I will produce something. Let me know what you think and tell me what would be plausable. If i leave out something important let me know.
 
When I get home from work I will produce something. Let me know what you think and tell me what would be plausable. If i leave out something important let me know.

If you want to bounce something off me in a PM first feel free.
 

Deleted member 1487

Alright, here is my attempt. This is my first ever AH timeline. Please let me know if there is anything I could do better. All input is gratefully accepted. This is an extremely rough draft, so if anything is ASB or doesn't make sense, please PM me.



1915:
even though italy had stayed neutral in the lastest european war, both sides began actively courting her before the first shot had been fired. She had so far stayed out by betraying the spirit of a defense treaty signed with the central powers, but by sticking to the letter of the treaty she was able to maintain her respectablity. The allies were offering italy exactly what she wanted: the south tyrol, dalmatia, trentino and other lands that would make italy a significant power and unite all italian speaking people into one country. The central power, who were in posession of most of the land that italy coveted, offered allied colonies in africa, and gold to tip the balance in their favor. However, italy wanted austro-hungarian land, which was not forthcoming. Everytime that the politicians citied ceceding the italians parts of austria, they were immediately rebuffed and told that was not possible. However as the war lasted past christmas, the austrians were in a shaky position. The eastern armies were smashed, the serbs remained unconquered and looked as if they were ready to take the offensive, and the italians were making noises about joining the conflict. It seemed as though everyday brought more disasters. Even though the turks had joined the conflict, the austrians were still on the brink of collapse. It seemed as though one more problem would bring the whole country to its knees. The emperor was having trouble sleeping because of the latest reports that the italians were preparing to invade. He ultimately decided that night that he would approach the treacherous people to the south and see if he could reason with them. Luckily for the emperor, the italians recognized that their army was in no position to fight a modern war. They had large numbers of men ready to fight against the hated austrians, but the equipment was in very short supply. So, when the austrians approached the italians about a sale of land, they were all ears. The cost of modernizing the army and seizing the land they wanted was enough that listening to the sales proposal was worthwhile. The emperor nearly wept to have to sell off part of his empire to these greedy bastards, but if losing a small part, which was filled with disloyal italians, saved the empire from collapse and partition, then the indignity must be borne. When the italians heard the deal, they kept quiet at first and needed time to mull it over. However, inside they were thrilled. They were gaining the south tyrol at little financial cost and were given promises about a plescibite in the other italian speaking provences after the war. The price was really neutrality. They decided to take it after a short discussion. As part of the treaty they were required to sign a nonagression pact with AH for the period of 1 year. This was all that the italians would agree to, as they might decide to join in if the central powers looked vulnerable later. This time gave the italians a period to modernize and expand their military for this later date. For now neutrality was the word of the day.


Before the ink had dried, the AH troops stationed on the border with italy were traveling to the serbian front. With the AH's newfound strength the serbs were immediately pushed back on the defensive, and soon bulgaria decided she should grab what had been denied to her in the last balkan war. The western allies soon violated the neutrality of greece at salonika to support their rapidly crumbling ally. However, they were only in time to pick up the few survivors that had stumbled there way to safety after their army had been finally pinned down and crushed by the central powers. Austria had finally shown that she was capable of a victory without germany. However, she paid for this victory. But the southern flank was secure. As the Central powers generals joked later, Salonika became the biggest allied prison camp in the world. Nearly 150,000 british and french troops would eventually be stationed in this useless base, and wouldn't have the chance to influence other theaters.

Soon, AH had a chance to retrain their battered armies. With a surplus of troops for once, they were able to rest and reequip their troops on the german model which seemed to be working well. Although, the loss of junior officers and nco's had been devestating, this period of reorganisation improved the quality of AH's armies to above the prewar levels. Even with the bleeding sore of the eastern front to worry about, the emperor could rest easy now that his empire was safe. Eventually, the Austrians were able to take a larger share of the russian front and ultimately the offensive with their german ally. Soon, it was the russians on the defensive, and they came to respect the austrian skill and strength. This did not mean that the russians were anywhere near beaten, but the extra casualties from a formerly incompetent enemy was causing some in russia to question the continuing of the war. Serbia was lost, and the soon poland was gone. Next year the baltic provences would be threatened and the ukraine was simmering with nationalistic fervor as the AH troops started to occupy its western provinces. The western allies were proving to be too weak to force a decision in france, as offensive after offensive ground to a bloody halt. The italians were even selling war materials to their former enemy, seemingly turned friend. When the tzar dismissed his brother near the end of 1915, the russian generals began to have sleepless nights themselves...
 
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