Maverick (a McCain TL)

February 10, 2000
George Bush was gaining momentum after his defeat in New Hampshire. South Carolina was a conservative state, and he was targeting the conservative base. He attacked McCain on veterans' affairs and appealed to the religious right.

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McCain was desperate to regain momentum. He even released an ad entitled, "Desperate", which compared Bush to Bill Clinton and accused him of lying about paying for Social Security and the Deficit. Bush's advisers were pleased about McCain taking the negative route. Bush recorded his own ad, "Integrity", saying McCain's remarks were "over the line." Historians are in doubt as to if the ad could have helped ensure a Bush victory. Unfortunately for Bush, what happened that night would prevent the ad from airing and result in Bush's ultimate downfall.

After shooting the ad, Bush media adviser Mark McKinnon and a cameraman/driver set out to transport the finished footage to be edited for airing as soon as possible. McKinnon was tired and understandably nervous. He at first directed the driver to head in the wrong direction, which they did, at high speeds. After they found out they were headed the wrong way, they turned around, and accellerated. Not long after, the rental car carrying McKinnon and the cameraman collided with an off-duty police officer at over 100 miles per hour.

After the accident, the officer managed to call for paramedics and police. McKinnon and the cameraman were badly injured and were airlifted to the nearest medical facility. The SC Highway Patrol soon arrived on the scene to investigate the accident. It didn't take long for the investigators to determine the rental car in which McKinnon and the cameraman were in was travelling at excessive speeds. The damaged rental car was taken to the impound lot, with the tape of the ad still inside.

The Bush campaign was notified of the accident not long after McKinnon and the cameraman were in the hospital. The news began to hit the media not long after. By next morning, the headlines read "Bush staffer, cameraman injured in accident". Unfortunately, the information released by the Highway Patrol would soon emerge...


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All credit for this post goes to Orville Third
 
February 2000
Despite the Bush campaigns herculean efforts as damage control in the days following the McKinnon accident, they did not have time to contain the damage at the state level. McCain's victory in South Carolina was fairly slim but decisive, getting his campaign the bulk of the 37 state delegates; following this defeat, Karl Rove and company decided to shelve plans to "humiliate" their opponent in his home state, instead looking to maximize their impact in Michigan. This, however, only freed up resources for the McCain campaign to put there as well, meaning that the next two primaries were victories for the insurgent.

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Bush expected to do well in Puerto Rico, but he knew that if he was to avoid having the wind taken out of his sails before he even got to Super Tuesday, he'd have to win the biggest prize of February 29, Virginia with its 56 delegates given together (as opposed to Washington and North Dakota, which awarded their delegates proportionally). To that end, his campaign was able to win the Jefferson state, with the slimmest of majorities, though still five points ahead of the runner up (and with Keyes managing 5%). He also won a fair majority in North Dakota, while McCain took a modest majority in Washington.

Going into Super Tuesday, McCain still led Bush in the delegate count, but only by a handful. That was about to change...
 
Partial Transcript from a McCain speech, delivered at Virginia Beach the evening of February 29*

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... Most important, I believe in our party, because underlying all our party's conservative principles is our respect for the nation's greatness and our appreciation for the ennobling political and social values from which our greatness is derived.

Thus, I have always felt quite comfortable describing myself as a proud conservative, a proud Reagan conservative, and as a member of Congress I have compiled a record of a proud conservative. I have fought many battles for small government and low taxes, for personal freedom and responsibility for a strong defense of our national interests and values. I have fought against wasteful spending, whether its patrons were Democrats or Republican. Moreover, I have proudly defended the sanctity of life and the values that make families strong and our country great. I fought these battles in good times and bad for our party, and I will fight them for as long as I have the strength to fight.

Throughout my presidential campaign I remained true to our conservative principles. It's conservative to pay down the national debt, to save Social Security... and Medicare. It's conservative to insist on local control of our children's education.

It's conservative to expose the pork barrel spending practices of both political parties.

It is conservative to seek to improve the lives of our servicemen and women and the means with which we ask them to defend us, and it is conservative... to demand that America keep its promises to our veterans.

I run for president, my friends, because I believe deeply in the greatness of America's destiny. We are the world's lantern of freedom and opportunity, the bright beacon of hope that our fathers fought to bequeath us and our children were born to inherit. But I know, but I know that unless we restore the people's sovereignty over government and their pride in public service, unless we reform our public institutions to meet the demands of a new day and unless we renew our sense of national purpose, we will squander our destiny.

Toward that end, I have called for the reform of campaign finance practices that have sacrificed our principles to the demands of big money special interests. I have spoken against... forces that have turned politics into a battle of bucks instead of a battle of ideas, and for that, my friends, and for that, my friends, I have been accused of disloyalty to my party.

I am also proud to help build a bigger Republican Party, a party that can claim a governing majority for a generation or more by attracting new people to our cause, with an appeal to the patriotism that unites us and the promise of a government that we can be proud of again. And for that... I have been accused of consorting with the wrong sort of people.

Well, well, my friends I've always -- I've always acted in what I believe to be the best interest of my country, and I always believed that what is good for America is good for the Republican Party.

I don't believe it's loyal to suggest that the Republican Party cannot stand on its own feet and fight for public opinion without six- and seven-figure contributions from people with interest before government but not necessarily ideas to sustain our country's greatness. I don't believe it's loyal to suggest that the Republican establishment is more important to save than a Republican majority. I believe it is the height of foolishness, the height of foolishness to build a wall around our party in fear that we are so narrowly defined that new faces and fresh ideas in accord with our basic principles will jeopardize our values.

America... is more than the sum of its divided parts, and so our party should be. America is more powerful than its established power centers, and so our party should be. America is greater than the accumulation of wealth, and so our party should be. This is my message to my party and my country. It is an honest, Republican message that threatens none of our party's principles or the social values of any constituency in our party. On the contrary, it is an inclusive but principled message that trusts in the people to guide our nation in this new century.

I am a conservative, my friends, a proud conservative who has faith in the people I serve, but those who purport to be defenders of our party but in who -- who in reality have lost confidence in the Republican message are attacking me. They are people who have turned good causes into businesses.

Let me be clear, let me be clear. Evangelical leaders are changing America for the better. Chuck Colson, head of Prison Fellowship, is saving men from life -- from a lifetime behind bars by bringing them the good news of redemption. James Dobson, who does not support me, has devoted his life to rebuilding America's families. Others are leading the fight against pornography, cultural decline and for life. I stand with them. I am a pro-life, pro-family fiscal conservative, an advocate of a strong defense, and yet Pat Robertson, Jerry Falwell and a few Washington leaders of the pro-life movement call me an unacceptable presidential candidate. They distort my pro- life positions and smear the reputations of my supporters.

Why? Because I don't pander to them, because I don't ascribe to their failed philosophy that money is our message. I believe in the cause of conservative reform. I believe that because we are right we will prevail in the battle of ideas, unspoiled by the taint of a corrupt campaign finance scheme that works against the very conservative reform of government that is the object of our labors. The Republican Party will prevail... because of our principles, because that's what it's about, my friends: principles, not special- interest money or empire or ego.

The union bosses. who have subordinated the interest of working families to their own ambitions, to their desire to preserve their own political power at all costs, are mirror images of Pat Robertson. Just as we embrace working people, we embrace the fine members of the religious conservative community, but that does not mean that we will pander to their self-appointed leaders.

Some prefer to build walls and exclude newcomers from our support. Apparently, appeals to patriotism can only be held by card- carrying Republican, and only certain Republicans at that, not the kind of Republicans who might dissent from the soft-money ethics of a tired party establishment. Apparently Republican reformers, independent reformers or Democrat reform -- Democratic reformers, any group that might, like the Reagan Democrats of 20 years ago, be attracted to our cause of conservative reform and national greatness are too great a threat to the Washington status quo. That surprises me, that surprises me since the essence of evangelism is to seek converts. My campaign is bringing new people into the Republican Party everyday.

I don't apologize for this. No, I wear it as a badge of honor. I will not padlock the Republican Party and surrender the future of our nation to Speaker Gerhardt and President Al Gore.

My friends, we're building a new Republican majority, a majority to serve the values that have long defined our party and made our country great. Social conservatives should flock to our banner. Why should you fear a candidate who believes we should honor our obligations to the old and the young? Why should you fear a candidate who believes we should first cut taxes for those who need it most? Why should you fear a candidate who wants to reform the practices of politics in government so they fairly reflect your aspirations for your family and country? Why should you fear a candidate who would sign without hesitation a partial birth adoption -- abortion band, or who would work tirelessly with anyone to improve adoption and foster care choices for those who might be considering the taking of unborn life? Why should you fear a candidate... who shares your values? My friends, I am a Reagan Republican who will defeat Al Gore.

Unfortunately, Governor Bush is a Pat Robertson Republican who will lose to Al Gore.

I recognize and celebrate that our country is founded upon Judeo- Christian values, and I have pledged my life to defend America and all her values, the values that have made us the noblest experiment in history. But public -- but political intolerance by any political party is neither a Judeo-Christian nor an American value. The political... tactics of division and slander are not our values, they are... corrupting influences on religion and politics, and those who practice them in the name of religion or in the name of the Republican Party or in the name of America shame our faith, our party and our country.

Neither party should be defined by pandering to the outer reaches of American politics and the agents of intolerance, whether they be Louis Farrakhan or Al Sharpton on the left, or Pat Robertson or Jerry Falwell on the right.

Many years ago, a scared American prisoner of war in Vietnam was tied in torture robes by his tormenters and left alone in an empty room to suffer through the night. Later in the evening, a guard he had never spoken to entered the room and silently loosened the ropes to relieve his suffering. Just before morning, that same guard came back and re-tightened the ropes before his less humanitarian comrades returned.

He never said a word to the grateful prisoner, but some months later on a Christmas morning as the prisoner stood alone in the prison courtyard, the same Good Samaritan walked up to him and stood next to him for a few moments. Then with his sandal, the guard drew a cross in the dirt. Both prisoner and guard stood wordlessly there for a minute or two venerating the cross until the guard rubbed it out and walked away.

This is my faith, the faith that unites and never divides, the faith that bridges unbridgeable gaps in humanity. That is my religious faith and it is the faith I want my party to serve, and the faith I hold in my country. It is the faith that we are all equal and endowed by our creator with unalienable rights to life liberty and the pursuit of happiness. It is the faith I would die to defend. Don't let... anyone fool you about me, my friends, or about this crusade that we have begun. If you want to repair the people's confidence in the government that represents us, join us. If you want to restore the people's pride in America, join us. If you want to believe in a national purpose that is greater than our individual interests, join us.

We are the party of Ronald Reagan, not Pat Robertson. We are the party... of Theodore Roosevelt, not the party of special interests. We are... the party of Abraham Lincoln, not... Bob Jones.

Join us, join us, join us and welcome anyone of good faith to our ranks. We should be, we must be, we will be a party as big as the country we serve.

Thank you and God bless, and thank you for being here today.

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Results of Super Tuesday
The results from the East Coast were a complete blowout for McCain; Conneticut, Maine, Maryland Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island, and Vermont were all eventually declared for him, though some were too close to call for several hours; Bush's early victory in Georgia was lost among the clamor of these results. The Bush campaign was nervous, but managed to regain their cool as results from the midwest came in, with Ohio, Missouri, and even Minnesota being called for the fortunate son. By the time polls on the west coast were closing, McCain had been holding a slight lead over his rival, but the results from California and Washington turned it into a blowout -- the Golden State threw all of their 162 delegates behind the Maverick, while the caucuses in the state to the north decided to stand behind the primaries held by their state days earlier.

Coming out of Super Tuesday, John McCain led George Bush in the delegate count by the hundreds.

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*this speech is word for word an OTL speech from February 28; context is slightly different, but I really wanted TTL McCain to still say these things; the "gooks" gaffe, however, has been butterflied away entirely (at least for Feb 2000)
 
March and April 2000
The weeks following Super Tuesday proved to be some of the most trying times for the McCain Campaign. Bush started to close his gap in a matter of days, winning the Wyoming Caucuses and Colorado Primary, which was only partially mitigated by the senator's narrow win in Utah. Then came March 14th, where George Bush saw huge gains by winning both his home state of Texas and his brother's state of Florida, compounded with southern victories in Louisiana, Mississippi, and even the military state of Oklahoma, while McCain managed only Tennessee. McCain managed to keep his lead from slipping by winning a hard fought victory in Illinois, but his position going into April was still precarious with polls predicting the Bush was likely to win Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin was expected to be a close election by almost all counts.

Then came the bombshell -- in the last days of March, a local Fox affiliated news station in Portland, Maine, reported that in 1976, Governor Bush had been arrested for drunk driving. The national media, starting with Fox News (the cable channel) picked it up shortly thereafter, and by the time the accused man's campaign had time to coordinate a response, they had already lost both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

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Worse for them still, the next primaries weren't for another month, and the national news media filled the time by looking into the scandal as far as it would go, revisiting rumors of cocaine use in his youth and asking "What else is he hiding?" Bush spent weeks refusing to address these concerns, and saw his polls numbers slip more and more as a result. Then the campaigns moved into the month of May...
 
May 2000
The results of May 2nd were a wakeup call to the Bush Campaign; not only had McCain won Indiana and DC, as expected, but North Carolina, with its vibrant evangelical population, had narrowly gone for McCain as well. Rove had hoped to use McCain's speech from Virginia Beach to rally Christian Values Voters against the candidate who had criticized Pat Robertson so thoroughly; Bush, in particular, had hoped that state would silence the critics who had been incessantly criticizing him all through April, the most sympathetic of who still called for him to come clean to the American people about his youth. He had been reticent to talk about these parts of his life, citing in private concerns that children and teens would use his example to abuse substances as well. Following his defeat in North Carolina, however, Bush decided to listen to advisers telling him that these CVV's would not rally to him until they decided that he could be trusted as a person, and that this would not happen until he talked to them frankly about his poor decisions earlier in life. The television interview was put together in a matter of days.

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Bush came clean about his past use of cocaine, his drunk driving incident, and other "stupid decisions" he made as a college student, followed by year of alcohol abuse which put his health in jeopardy; he didn't shy from describing himself as a "lost soul" and heavily emphasized the narrative of his redemption through Christian faith. And when asked (essentially) if his life of wealth and privilege played a role in the availability of second chances in his life, he answered affirmatively and plainly.

This honestly payed dividends in the short term; days after the interview, Bush won West Virginia by a health margin and lost Nebraska by a respectable one, then picked up more delegates in Oregon a week after that. The Bush Campaign had its last good day on May 23rd, when it won the states of Arkansas, Kentucky, and Kansas, losing only Idaho. As a result, in the lead-up to the final primaries in June, it was still possible for either candidate to win a majority of the elected delegates going into the convention; and it would not be until after the elections of June 6 that the GOP would have its nominee.
 
It won't be Lieberman and it won't be Bill Bradley. John Kerry, Dick Gephardt, John Edwards, Evan Bayh, and Jeanne Shaheen were the other final 5 VP candidates.
 
June and July, 2000
The final primaries turned out to be a collective blowout for the Republican frontrunner, with only Alabama's 44 delegates going to the Bush campaign. Despite losing the primary elections as a whole, George Bush spent several days holding off from officially withdrawing from the race; his campaign had several high level meetings which weighed their options, since there were still plenty of unelected delegates that they could appeal to. Some told Bush there was "plenty of room" for a candidate with deep establishment connections like himself to appeal to convention votes that were technically still in play. There were also backdoor appeals to the opposing campaign looking for some kind of deal where Bush could win concessions from the Arizona senator in exchange for his endorsement; however McCain held firm, confident the months of elections had given him a clear mandate to be the Republican nominee for President. Bush ultimately decided to accept his defeat; on June 10 he appeared with John McCain and endorsed him for President.

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With both Presidential nominees now decided, news coverage of the Presidential election died down for a period of several weeks as other national and world events took to the air. When Elian Gonzalez was returned to Cuba, per the court's decision, in late June, McCain was asked again about his stance on the case; he reaffirmed what he had said months earlier, saying while he disagreed with the court's decision it spoke to "America's strength" that the rule of law was being followed, and alluded to hopes of normalizing relations with Cuba as the country had with Vietnam.

The last weeks of July saw the election creep back to the forefront of American media coverage, as the Republican National Convention approached and speculation buzzed as to who McCain would chose to be his running mate. On July 25th, he announced his decision...

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This is before 9/11 and the anti Muslim turn of much of the GOP, so Muslims were still heavily republican, why would McCain say Judeo-Christian? He isn't a theocrat so it doesn't make much sense and would be counted as a major gaffe.
 
It won't be Lieberman and it won't be Bill Bradley. John Kerry, Dick Gephardt, John Edwards, Evan Bayh, and Jeanne Shaheen were the other final 5 VP candidates.
Since I'm thinking Gore might try to appeal to disaffected CVV's, I'm leaning toward Gephart or Edwards, maybe even Bob Grahm; then again...
This is before 9/11 and the anti Muslim turn of much of the GOP, so Muslims were still heavily republican, why would McCain say Judeo-Christian? He isn't a theocrat so it doesn't make much sense and would be counted as a major gaffe.
Not sure how to respond, other than to note that it wasn't considered a gaffe OTL, at least not that part of the speech. Then again, OTL he withdrew from the race shortly after this speech so maybe the media never found time to revisit it.
 
August and September 2000
The Republican Convention in Philadelphia got underway on July 31, with a fairly uneventful opening day. The next day saw speeches from Bob and Elizabeth Dole, both George Bushes (father and son), and Cindy McCain, with the keynote speech being delivered by General Colin Powell. The day after ended with Governor John Engler accepting his party's nomination for Vice President; and the final day of the event saw the climax. John McCain's speech accepting the Republican nomination for President made a point of pivoting away from the anti-Clinton rhetoric that came to the forefront in speech after speech in the convention center, to focus on his hopes for America's future; while proudly describing himself as a Conservative, but also as a pragmatist. He took pains to state that Conservatism "does not mean anger or divisiveness", and promised to work to unite Americans in keeping the country strong, safe, and prosperous.

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A few days after the Republican Convention ended, Gore announced his choice for running mate, Dick Gephardt. The convention in Los Angeles was fairly uneventful; Harold Ford delivered the keynote address, Gephardt got good marks, and Gore's acceptance speech made a point that "I stand here tonight as my own man", widely reported as the Vice President looking to distance himself from Bill Clinton; this analysis was further evidenced by the nominee passionately kissing his wife on stage.

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And just like that, the General Election had begun. The remainder of August and early September saw each campaign largely reiterating their messages outlined in their respective conventions. Following Los Angeles, the Gore Campaign saw themselves tied with McCain in the polls for several weeks before seeing the Arizona Senator's lead slowly reassert itself in September. Then the national campaigns saw their media coverage slip in the latter weeks of September as America's attention turned to Australia and the Olympic Games. Gore was still behind McCain by a few points in most polls as October approached, but the Vice President had every hope that the debates would see his fortunes turn.
 
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