What if Italy [or country x] joined the Central Powers in WW1

What if Italy joined the Central Powers in late 1914 or early 1915? [maybe the pods can be from the late 19th century to a better Central Power performance in WW1's 1st months and concessions]
Here is a possible timeline: [Based in format on https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=304673]
December 1914: The Central Powers offer Italy concessions in expectation of an Italian entrance into WW1 on their side.
June 1915 [about]: Italy declares war on France and Britain before being followed by Russian, Japanese, Serbian, Montenegrin and Belgian responses. Gallipoli is evacuated and the troops reinforce the Middle East while Indians and reinforcements conquer East Africa.
10 August 1915: When the Central Powers invade Serbia, the Serbs and Montenegrins get themselves surrounded but fight for three months before surrendering. The French maintain their defence line in the Alps even with several Italian offensives and raids.
October 1915: The Germans continue their Russian offensive and take Riga. The offensive goes slightly longer than reality before stopping at Estonia. Back in Egypt, a joint Italian-Ottoman-Austrian offensive barely succeeds before being repulsed by reinforcements from newly conquered Italian and German African colonies.
February 1916: Germany launches its offensive on Verdun while the Entente launches an offensive in North Africa to defeat the Italians simultaneously. Austria-Hungary has to reinforce the Eastern Front and free up German troops for the Western and Mediterranean fronts, but luckily, the former empire could devote most of its strength to the east.
June 1916: Despite the expected defeat of Russia, the Brusilov Offensive causes some damage to the Austro-Hungarian Army before being stopped. The Entente cleans up North Africa before reinforcing Egypt and the west.
August 1916: After the loss of Verdun, the Entente counteroffensives to retake the city and the Somme become costly pyrrhic victories. The Ottomans retreat from Egypt, but conquer Azerbaijan, Iran and Mesopotamia. Negotiations for the entrance of Greece and Romania joining the Entente take place, but become futile after their offensives wind down over the winter.
spring 1917: Revolution occurs in Russia while the French-British offensive on the Western Front fails. However, plans are made for an invasion of Sicily in the aftermath of the offensive's failure.
August 1917: The Entente launches offensives against Belgium, Sicily and Egypt. The first fails, but the second succeeds and it seems that Italy might be knocked out of WW1. In Russia, the failure of its final offensive causes it to sign for peace later in the year, despite the Entente's successful invasion of Sicily, Sardinia and southern Italy.
spring 1918: Austro-Hungarian and Italian troops are pushed back until Rome is defended successfully although the German offensive in the west succeeds, causing WW1 to end in summer. If not, the Entente knocks Italy out of WW1 in 1918 and gets Greece on their side. [Possible with American intervention.]
1919: The Germans retreat from their western front defences for good while internal conditions combine to compel their surrender by the end of the year. The same applies to the other Central Powers.
 
Romania in Central Powers

September 1914: The Central Powers offer Romania concessions in expectation of a Romanian entrance into WW1 on their side. [Otherwise, a better Central Powers performance in the east or pro-German government should do.]
autumn 1914 [about]: Romania declares war on Russia and Serbia before being followed by British, French and Montenegrin responses. Bulgaria waits for an opportunity to strike at Romania, but Ottoman intervention, Russian defeats and Macedonian gains make the country think otherwise.
10 April 1915: When the Central Powers invade Serbia, the Serbs and Montenegrins get themselves surrounded, but fight for three months before surrendering. The Bulgarians launch their offensive just before Gallipoli diverts some attention to the new front, but it is too late for Serbia.
May 1915: Italy enters WW1 on the Entente side slightly later than reality. Gorlice-Tarnow is launched against Russia at around the same time.
October 1915: The Germans continue their Russian offensive and take Riga. The offensive goes slightly longer than reality before stopping at Estonia. Italian offensives against the Isonzo fail.
February 1916: Germany launches its offensive on Verdun while Russia launches an offensive in Estonia to defeat the Germans simultaneously, which fails. Austria-Hungary and Romania have to reinforce the Eastern Front and free up German troops for the Western Front, but luckily, the empires could devote most of their strengths to the east.
June 1916: Despite the expected defeat of Russia, the Brusilov Offensive causes some damage to the Austro-Hungarian and Romanian Armies before being stopped. An Austro-Hungarian offensive in Italy damages the Italian Army before being halted.
August 1916: After the loss of Verdun, the Entente counteroffensives to retake the city and the Somme become costly pyrrhic victories. The Ottomans retreat from Egypt. Negotiations for the entrance of Greece and Bulgaria to join the Entente take place, but become futile after their offensives wind down over the winter.
spring 1917: Revolution occurs in Russia while the French-British offensive on the Western Front fails. However, plans are made for a German invasion of Russia in the aftermath of the offensive's failure.
August 1917: The Entente launches offensives against Belgium, Palestine and the Ukraine. The first fails, but the second succeeds and it seems that Romania might be knocked out of WW1 before the German advance on Petrograd. In Russia, the failure of its final offensive causes it to sign for peace later in the year, after revolutionary turmoil comes. [Italy gets knocked out of the war.]
spring 1918: Romanian troops free up German and Austrian troops for the Western and Italian fronts. The German offensive in the west succeeds, causing WW1 to end in summer. If not, the Entente launches a weaker offensive WW1 in 1918 and gets Greece on their side later. [Possible with American intervention and Italian resistance.]
1919: The Germans retreat from their western front defences for good while internal conditions combine to compel their surrender by the end of the year. The same applies to the other Central Powers after breakthroughs on other fronts.
 
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What if Italy joined the Central Powers in late 1914 or early 1915? [maybe the pods can be from the late 19th century to a better Central Power performance in WW1's 1st months and concessions]
Here is a possible timeline: [Based in format on https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=304673]
December 1914: The Central Powers offer Italy concessions in expectation of an Italian entrance into WW1 on their side.
June 1915 [about]: Italy declares war on France and Britain before being followed by Russian, Japanese, Serbian, Montenegrin and Belgian responses. Gallipoli is evacuated and the troops reinforce the Middle East while Indians and reinforcements conquer East Africa.
10 August 1915: When the Central Powers invade Serbia, the Serbs and Montenegrins get themselves surrounded but fight for three months before surrendering. The French maintain their defence line in the Alps even with several Italian offensives and raids.
October 1915: The Germans continue their Russian offensive and take Riga. The offensive goes slightly longer than reality before stopping at Estonia. Back in Egypt, a joint Italian-Ottoman-Austrian offensive barely succeeds before being repulsed by reinforcements from newly conquered Italian and German African colonies.
February 1916: Germany launches its offensive on Verdun while the Entente launches an offensive in North Africa to defeat the Italians simultaneously. Austria-Hungary has to reinforce the Eastern Front and free up German troops for the Western and Mediterranean fronts, but luckily, the former empire could devote most of its strength to the east.
June 1916: Despite the expected defeat of Russia, the Brusilov Offensive causes some damage to the Austro-Hungarian Army before being stopped. The Entente cleans up North Africa before reinforcing Egypt and the west.
August 1916: After the loss of Verdun, the Entente counteroffensives to retake the city and the Somme become costly pyrrhic victories. The Ottomans retreat from Egypt, but conquer Azerbaijan, Iran and Mesopotamia. Negotiations for the entrance of Greece and Romania joining the Entente take place, but become futile after their offensives wind down over the winter.
spring 1917: Revolution occurs in Russia while the French-British offensive on the Western Front fails. However, plans are made for an invasion of Sicily in the aftermath of the offensive's failure.
August 1917: The Entente launches offensives against Belgium, Sicily and Egypt. The first fails, but the second succeeds and it seems that Italy might be knocked out of WW1. In Russia, the failure of its final offensive causes it to sign for peace later in the year, despite the Entente's successful invasion of Sicily, Sardinia and southern Italy.
spring 1918: Austro-Hungarian and Italian troops are pushed back until Rome is defended successfully although the German offensive in the west succeeds, causing WW1 to end in summer. If not, the Entente knocks Italy out of WW1 in 1918 and gets Greece on their side. [Possible with American intervention.]
1919: The Germans retreat from their western front defences for good while internal conditions combine to compel their surrender by the end of the year. The same applies to the other Central Powers.

Have you allowed for the 4 Austo-Hungarian and 6 Italian dreadnoughts dominating the central Mediterranean? The French only had 7.

Even after they were dealt with Central Powers submarines operating from Genoa, Naples and Taranto would be closer to the Mediterranean trade routes than the Adriatic based boats of OTL.

The Royal and French navies could scrape together enough ships to get merchant shipping across the central basin without suffering prohibitive losses. But it might have been at the expense of significantly weakening the Grand Fleet.
 
Greece in Central Powers

1915: The Central Powers offer Greece concessions in expectation of a Romanian entrance into WW1 on their side. [Otherwise, a better Central Powers performance in the east or pro-German government should do.]
late 1915-1916 [about]: Greece declares war on Britain, France, Italy and Serbia before being followed by Russian, Japanese, Portuguese and Montenegrin responses. Bulgaria waits for an opportunity to strike at Greece and attempts to do so belatedly, but Ottoman intervention, Entente defeats and territorial gains make the country think otherwise.
December 1915: When the Central Powers invade Serbia, the Serbs and Montenegrins get themselves surrounded, but fight for months before surrendering. The Bulgarians join the Central Powers while withdrawal from Gallipoli diverts some attention to the new front, but it is too late for Serbia.
February 1916: Germany launches its offensive on Verdun while Russia launches an offensive in Estonia to defeat the Germans simultaneously, which fails. Austria-Hungary has to reinforce the Eastern Front and free up German and Balkan troops for other fronts, but luckily, the empire could devote most of its strength to the east.
June 1916: Despite the expected defeat of Russia, the Brusilov Offensive causes some damage to the Austro-Hungarian Army before being stopped. A joint Greek-Austro-Hungarian offensive in Italy damages the Italian Army before being halted.
August 1916: After the loss of Verdun, the Entente counteroffensives to retake the city and the Somme become costly pyrrhic victories. The Ottomans retreat from Egypt. Negotiations for the entrance of Romania and Bulgaria to join the Entente take place, but become futile after their offensives wind down over the winter.
spring 1917: Revolution occurs in Russia while the French-British offensive on the Western Front fails. However, plans are made for a German invasion of Russia in the aftermath of the offensive's failure.
August 1917: The Entente launches offensives against Belgium, Palestine and the Ukraine. The first fails, but the second succeeds and it seems that Romania might be knocked out of WW1 before the German advance on Petrograd. In Russia, the failure of its final offensive causes it to sign for peace later in the year, after revolutionary turmoil comes. [Italy gets knocked out of the war.]
spring 1918: Greek troops free up German troops for the Western Front. The German offensive in the west fails, causing WW1 to be prolonged and the Entente launches a weaker offensive in 1918 besides getting Bulgaria [and Romania] on their side later. [Possible with American intervention and Italian resistance.]
1919: The Germans retreat from their western front defences for good while internal conditions combine to compel their surrender by the end of the year. The same applies to the other Central Powers after breakthroughs on other fronts.
 
What if Italy joined the Central Powers in late 1914 or early 1915? [maybe the pods can be from the late 19th century to a better Central Power performance in WW1's 1st months and concessions]

More probable early 1915 for supply reason and only in almost ASB event that Vienna agree to some compensation...but let's roll it.
While Italy big problem will be coal as it import it from the UK for the overall great part...it will create a lot of butterfly.
Serbia invasion will be much much more smoother as no A-H troops will be diverted for defend the Isonzo front, plus just not send ships to transport the remaining Serbian Army in Italy mean that a lot less troops will be avaible for reform the Serbian Army like OTL.
Greece and Romania will be much less eager to partecipate in the war in this situation (hell the second can decide to even join the CP).
A-H will receive a big shoot in the arm as ITTL there is no Italian Front to swallow men and resources that can be used in Russia and in the Balkans (we are talking about 400.000 deaths and 1.200.000 wounded plus all supply used in 4 years of fight).
The big change are in the Mediterrean, as now from an entente lake has become a contested place and this mean that the transport of colonial troops from NA to Europe will be more difficult.
The French will be forced to keep the troops stationed at the italian border and not trasfer them, as OTL, up north to reinforce their position (not much breakthrouhg here for both side, the terrain block any possibility of this kind).
The italian forces meanwhile will be transported in Germany, as official warplan, to support their ally and booster his numbers.
So while this will be a very rough trip for Italy, in the end the big losers are the nations of the Entente.
 
While Italy big problem will be coal as it import it from the UK for the overall great part...it will create a lot of butterfly.

Do you think that a shortage of coal would be as big a problem for the Regia Navale in World War I if they had joined the Central Powers as the shortage of oil was in World War II?

I think a shortage of raw materials could be a big problem in general for Italy. For example could they have expanded their army from 24 to 70 divisions as they did IOTL.

OTOH how would the attitude of the USA be changed by its large Italian population?
 
Italy actually began ramping up imports of coal from the US, and by 1916 they were providing nearly one-fifth of Italy's coal imports. More than likely the British would have attempted to impose a naval blockade on Italy, resulting in Germany becoming the major source of coal. Particularly as they also held the Belgian and many of the French coalfields.

By 1915, Germany controlled 69% of France's coalfields as well, coupled with control of the Belgian fields, Germany now had a far larger production of coal and coke than Britain, add to this the occupation of much of Russian Poland and their coal output increased even greater. Keep in mind that Austria-Hungary was reliant on imports of coal as well.

The coal from Germany would not have been an insurmountable problem though, by 1939 Germany was Italy's primary source of coal (mostly from the Ruhr) and by 1941 it provided almost all of Italy's coal imports. The railway line from Innsbruck through the Brenner Pass would have been especially vital to Italy if they had joined the Central Powers.
 
If you look at my posts [such as: https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/search.php?searchid=21748751&pp=25&page=7], you can see the consequences of Sweden joining the Central Powers. The title says Italy, but you can imagine what if any country joined the Central Powers in WW1 other than the actual members. And, I had already made the conclusion that threads about Portugal, Denmark, Norway and other smaller European or non-European countries produce minimal important effects on WW1 if they joined the Central Powers. [I'd covered one scenario for Sweden.] Next day or today, I'll post about a Central Powers Spain and do non-European countries if significant.
If possible, and to save space, I'll talk about potential countries joining the WW1 Entente if they really didn't or contributed in larger amounts [except for historically significant Germany and Austria-Hungary].
 
Where would the Entente be getting all the forces and resources to successfully invade Italy?

With the Italians on the Central Powers side Austria is going to be able to free up everyone from that front to fight against Russia.

France is going to need to divert forces from somewhere to the Italian/French border.

The UK is going to need to divert more naval power to the Mediterranean to counter the Italian navy.
 
Where would the Entente be getting all the forces and resources to successfully invade Italy?

With the Italians on the Central Powers side Austria is going to be able to free up everyone from that front to fight against Russia.

France is going to need to divert forces from somewhere to the Italian/French border.

The UK is going to need to divert more naval power to the Mediterranean to counter the Italian navy.

Without the Balkan, African and Ottoman campaigns, the Entente might scrap sufficient resources for a campaign against Italy. [Truth is, the Entente had many more resources to use compared to the Central Powers, especially from the colonies and non-Whites. Assistance from Japan, [neutral] Chinese, India, the troops sent to the Balkans and the Middle East and Africa would be useful in such a scenario.] They could even remain on the defensive in the west or use Japanese and colonial [especially non-whites and friendly foreign Europeans], although there would be political issues. Also, don't forget issues regarding Italian-Austro-Hungarian co-operation, French naval raids against the Italian coastline, North Africa [and the perception of losing it and preventing both mainland Italy and its Mediterranean islands from invasion are more important than anything else for Italy in this scenario] and the Ottoman coast [with British, Russian and Japanese help] would make Italy think again before being aggressive, especially when compounded with coal availability. There are many hypothetical threads about Italy joining the Central Powers if you [Google] search them.
 
Without the Balkan, African and Ottoman campaigns, the Entente might scrap sufficient resources for a campaign against Italy. [Truth is, the Entente had many more resources to use compared to the Central Powers, especially from the colonies and non-Whites. Assistance from Japan, [neutral] Chinese, India, the troops sent to the Balkans and the Middle East and Africa would be useful in such a scenario.] They could even remain on the defensive in the west or use Japanese and colonial [especially non-whites and friendly foreign Europeans], although there would be political issues. Also, don't forget issues regarding Italian-Austro-Hungarian co-operation, French naval raids against the Italian coastline, North Africa [and the perception of losing it and preventing both mainland Italy and its Mediterranean islands from invasion are more important than anything else for Italy in this scenario] and the Ottoman coast [with British, Russian and Japanese help] would make Italy think again before being aggressive, especially when compounded with coal availability. There are many hypothetical threads about Italy joining the Central Powers if you [Google] search them.

Yes the Entente Powers still have superior resources and that should tell in a long war, however...

Italy had 6 dreadnoughts completed or at an advanced stage of construction in August 1914 and the Austro-Hungarians had 4. If they aren't fighting war against each other then some of the resources released might go into completing the Francesco Caracciolo and Erstaz Monarch class increasing the strength of the Austro-Italian combined fleet from 10 to as many as 18 dreadnoughts. Plus the Goben/Yavuz Sultan Selim might be able to come out and join them.

Meanwhile the French had only 7 dreadnoughts completed or at an advanced stage of construction. Another 5 were less well advanced, but they had to be suspended because France had to concentrate its resources on the army.

The Italians aren't going to be able to hold their possessions in Africa for long, but it will be harder for the Entente powers to take the Dodecanese Islands, Sicily and Sardinia or mount an invasion of the Italian mainland while the Central Powers combined fleet remains in being. They might get their retaliation in first by invading Corsica.
 
Without the Balkan, African and Ottoman campaigns, the Entente might scrap sufficient resources for a campaign against Italy. [Truth is, the Entente had many more resources to use compared to the Central Powers, especially from the colonies and non-Whites.

Sure, the problem is that:

1) - this cut both way, A-H has now much more resources to devolve in the Russian front, not counting the fact that Greece and Romania with Italy entering the war can seriously thing to stay out of the fray freeing not only entente froces but also Austrian, Bulgarian and Ottoman troops and supply.
Gallipoli ending an year earlier also mean that the Porte had more forces to devolve at the Egyptian and Mesopotamian campaign making the British job much harder.

2) - France now must not only fight in two front (sure the italian border will not see a lot of offensive due to the terrain but troops will need to be kept there), but reinforcements from the colonies will have a more difficult way to arrive due to the fight in the mediterrean and the Germans in the north will receive italian reinforcements, so expect that the OTL CP offensive in France will be more succesfull.

3) - A landing in Italy will be probably a no-go, frankly Gallipoli burned a lot of enthusiast of this kind of offensive.

4) - Italian emigrants were a big part of the french workforces and the majority of the european colonist in Tunisia...this will create some problems.

5) - No Serbian remnants or Italian armed forces for the Entente, plus Greece and Romania will probably stay out...so less resource for them. On the other side UK don't need to finance Italy and the italians have coal problems.
Regarding this last point, well purchase from the Germans and the US can be step up (and this can create some diplomatic problems as the blockade of Italy, adding to the one for Germany, will hit US business) and rationing implementend (as OTL) but it will be hard.

Frankly, war will end in 1917 with Russia surrender and France facing the whole CP forces.
 
So it comes down to the question, can Italy offer more value to the CP than what they need from them? What they can offer is military potential in all fields, which is immediate and palpable, but what they require is resources, which could be a significant issue in the long term, provided the war goes on that long.
 
Spain in the Central Powers

1914: The Central Powers offer Spain concessions in expectation of a Spanish entrance into WW1 on their side [or do better on the Western Front to convince Spain].
early 1915 [about]: Spain declares war on France and Britain before being followed by Russian, Japanese, Serbian, Montenegrin and Belgian responses. Gallipoli is evacuated or cancelled and the troops reinforce the Western Front while others conquer Spanish and German African colonies besides an increased effort of campaigning in the Middle East.
10 August 1915: When the Central Powers invade Serbia, the Serbs and Montenegrins get themselves surrounded but fight for three months before surrendering. The French maintain their defence line in the Pyrenees even with several Spanish offensives and raids. Meanwhile, a naval offensive against Spain diverts Spanish attention from offensive duties, relieving Gibraltar, France, Africa, merchant trade and Portuguese attitudes.
October 1915: The Germans continue their Russian offensive and take Riga. The offensive goes slightly longer than reality before stopping at Estonia. Back in Egypt, an Ottoman-German offensive barely succeeds before being repulsed by reinforcements from newly conquered Spanish and German African colonies. [This scenario assumes Italian neutrality, Central Powers role has been covered and is quite similar with Spanish support while neutrality brings similar impacts to the actual or 'end in 1919' WW1 scenarios, especially with a successful invasion of Spain.
February 1916: Germany launches its offensive on Verdun while the Entente launches an offensive in captured Spain to defeat the Italians simultaneously. Austria-Hungary has to reinforce the Eastern Front and free up German troops for the Western and Mediterranean fronts, but luckily, the former empire could devote most of its strength to the east.
June 1916: Despite the expected defeat of Russia, the Brusilov Offensive causes some damage to the Austro-Hungarian Army before being stopped. The Entente fights in Portugal after joining the Entente and clearing the threat posed to Gibraltar, France and Africa before reinforcing Egypt and the west.
August 1916: After the loss of Verdun, the Entente counteroffensives to retake the city and the Somme become costly pyrrhic victories. The Ottomans retreat from Egypt, but conquer Iran and Mesopotamia. Negotiations for the entrance of Greece and Romania joining the Entente take place, but become futile after their offensives wind down over the winter, especially the former.
spring 1917: Revolution occurs in Russia while the French-British offensive on the Western Front fails. However, plans are made for a final invasion of Spain in the aftermath of the offensive's failure, using Portugal, North Africa, southern France and Entente bridgeheads on the Spanish coast.
August 1917: The Entente launches offensives against Belgium, Spain and Egypt. The first fails, but the second succeeds and Spain is knocked out of WW1 in the end. In Russia, the failure of its final offensive and revolution cause it to sign for peace later in the year, despite the Entente's successful invasion of Spain.
spring 1918: The Entente defeats Germany's last offensives to win WW1 in 1918 and gets Greece on their side. [Possible with American intervention.]
late 1918 or 1919: The Germans retreat from their western front defences for good while internal conditions combine to compel their surrender by the end of the year. The same applies to the other Central Powers fighting.
 
So basically whoever joins the Central Powers doesn't really matter and the Entente always wins at the end.
 
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