WI: 1-thousand ton additional natural satellite of Earth from 1913?

trurle · Nov 27, 2015

What if the Great Meteor Procession do not happen in 1913?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1913_Great_Meteor_Procession

Imagine for some small perturbation, the Great Meteor Procession come to relatively stable (most likely highly elliptical, but with apogee well below Moon) Earth orbit in 1913 instead of entering atmosphere?

Earth may end up with ~1 thousand ton captured asteroid for the next hundred years.

How it will affect the development of space-flight? Popular culture? Cold war?

Delta Force · Nov 27, 2015

It's estimated to have passed at an altitude of 53 kilometers. That's well within the atmosphere and will lead to reentry after a few orbits.

trurle · Nov 27, 2015

Delta Force said:
It's estimated to have passed at an altitude of 53 kilometers. That's well within the atmosphere and will lead to reentry after a few orbits.

So i say "perturbation happened". This is POD. The would-be meteor settled on 300x280000 km orbit with inclination 65 degrees (just for example) in 1913. It may happen due some moon fly-by earlier.

Delta Force · Nov 27, 2015

trurle said:
So i say "perturbation happened". This is POD. The would-be meteor settled on 300x280000 km orbit with inclination 65 degrees (just for example) in 1913. It may happen due some moon fly-by earlier.

Using the International Space Station as a reference, the meteor would likely reenter the atmosphere sometime in the early 1920s.

trurle · Nov 27, 2015

Delta Force said:
Using the International Space Station as a reference, the meteor would likely reenter the atmosphere sometime in the early 1920s.

Think throughly.

Space station have approximately 200 tons weight and 1000m2 drag area. Even with "night glider" attitude control mode.
And to re-enter it need just ~250 m/s delta-v.
1000-ton asteroid have drag area may be ~100m2 - and need ~3 km/s delta-v at perigee to re-enter from highly elliptical orbit.
Actually, at highly-elliptical orbit the lowering/raising of perigee will be dominated by gravity perturbations from Sun and Moon, not by atmospheric drag. Change speed at apogee by 1m/s, and it will either re-enter or come on completely different orbit.

Dathi THorfinnsson · Dec 2, 2015

trurle said:
So i say "perturbation happened". This is POD. The would-be meteor settled on 300x280000 km orbit with inclination 65 degrees (just for example) in 1913. It may happen due some moon fly-by earlier.

Err... ???
What slows it down enough to enter orbit? Surely the atmosphere. That means, by definition, that the perigee is in the atmosphere, no?

What 'perturbation' is going to raise the perigee well above the atmosphere?

juanml82 · Dec 2, 2015

Could they be captured (assuming a POD of a different fleck of dust hitting it some millions of years ago) because of the gravitational influence of other bodies instead of an aerocapture?

In that case, they may have ended up in a rather stable orbit, or at least one that doesn't decay for a few thousand years.

And while ASB is often the realm of magic rather than more serious discussion, since this is an astronomical POD, shouldn't it be there?

trurle · Dec 3, 2015

I see the respondents are stuck with the plausibility/technicality of the POD, while more interesting may be the POD consequences.

Michel Van · Dec 3, 2015

i don't know the 1913 Great Meteor Procession
so i can't make any suggestion to that

a 1-thousand ton asteroid in 300x280000 km orbit would fall on earth around 1920s
in 300 km up, there still Atmosphere and it brake everything with big surface like ISS or a 1-thousand ton asteroid.
next to that at 280000 km and moon is near it will pull with it gravity toward Moon
making the asteroid Orbit more and more unstable that it crash on earth or the Moon

oh I forgot the Roche limit that, wen Earth gravity start ripp up celestial body into pieces at hight of 3114 km above Earth
(ISS is build more Stable as a asteroid)

you need higher stable orbit that 1/3.26 of Distance of Earth to Moon so 110000 km

There are eight of Objects that near Earth and Moon that could enter with in such orbit
They drift in so called Horseshoe orbit around Earth and Moon

Mikestone8 · Dec 3, 2015

juanml82 said:
Could they be captured (assuming a POD of a different fleck of dust hitting it some millions of years ago) because of the gravitational influence of other bodies instead of an aerocapture?

If it passed near the Moon in a direction opposite to the Moon's orbital motion, it could be slowed by Lunar gravity to less than escape velocity and thus remain in orbit around the Earth - though the orbit is likely to be highly elliptical and might well be retrograde.

Michel Van · Dec 3, 2015

Mikestone8 said:
If it passed near the Moon in a direction opposite to the Moon's orbital motion, it could be slowed by Lunar gravity to less than escape velocity and thus remain in orbit around the Earth - though the orbit is likely to be highly elliptical and might well be retrograde.

not necessary highly elliptical.
If the object passt true the Lagrangian point 2 behind Moon during near passing it.
it can enter a oscillate orbit between Earth and Moon, over time this orbit stabilize between moon and Earth.

Archibald · Dec 3, 2015

Never heard about that event. Might gave NASA another destination to go in the 60's.
And then imagine all those asteroids were crammed with rare metals - it could boostrap mankind extension to cislunar space.

trurle · Dec 3, 2015

Michel Van said:
i don't know the 1913 Great Meteor Procession
so i can't make any suggestion to that

a 1-thousand ton asteroid in 300x280000 km orbit would fall on earth around 1920s
in 300 km up, there still Atmosphere and it brake everything with big surface like ISS or a 1-thousand ton asteroid.
next to that at 280000 km and moon is near it will pull with it gravity toward Moon
making the asteroid Orbit more and more unstable that it crash on earth or the Moon

oh I forgot the Roche limit that, wen Earth gravity start ripp up celestial body into pieces at hight of 3114 km above Earth
(ISS is build more Stable as a asteroid)

you need higher stable orbit that 1/3.26 of Distance of Earth to Moon so 110000 km

There are eight of Objects that near Earth and Moon that could enter with in such orbit
They drift in so called Horseshoe orbit around Earth and Moon

Yes, the orbit i selected (300x280000km at 65 degrees) is marginally stable. It stabilized somewhat against Moon influence by high inclination, and against atmospheric drag - by high ellipticity (spending 99% time out of atmosphere). As about Roche limit, it applicable only to large bodies or bodies without internal cohesion at all. Tidal pressure for 10m body on LEO will be like 0.1Pa. For example, Phobos is already past his Roche limit, but still in one piece. As about orbit with 110000km apogee, it will be definitely more stable, but also more difficult to enter with the realistic sequence of events.
Treat currently unstable orbit as opportunity

trurle · Dec 3, 2015

Archibald said:
Never heard about that event. Might gave NASA another destination to go in the 60's.
And then imagine all those asteroids were crammed with rare metals - it could boostrap mankind extension to cislunar space.

Ok, NASA sent a probe and found the asteroid is C-type (most common one - so no miracles).

juanml82 · Dec 3, 2015

trurle said:
Ok, NASA sent a probe and found the asteroid is C-type (most common one - so no miracles).

Spoilsports!

trurle · Dec 3, 2015

juanml82 said:
Spoilsports!

Try to dig it. Asteroid classification have started in 1975 IOTL, so by first probe (around 1963) C-class was undefined. Therefore, asteroid on Earth orbit has become the type specimen of C-class. Simply meaning touch with it leave a dark (carbon?) marks on spacecraft skin. If something leave a white streak on spacecraft, it will be S-class. And if a streak is coloured or spacecraft ripped apart..of course, U-class.

Carl Schwamberger · Dec 3, 2015

There would be a sub genre of science fiction stories, paranormal books, movies, & TV shows about this object. Religious leaders will attach great meanings to its presence & cults will emerge paying great attention to the object.

Conspiricy theorists will claim NASA probes never actually investigated the object. The probes were all fake.

As the 20th Century fades entrepenures will attempt to send tourists to it.

In the 1960s the Soviet Union & the US will race to place a probe on it first.

trurle · Dec 3, 2015

Carl Schwamberger said:
There would be a sub genre of science fiction stories, paranormal books, movies, & TV shows about this object. Religious leaders will attach great meanings to its presence & cults will emerge paying great attention to the object.

Conspiricy theorists will claim NASA probes never actually investigated the object. The probes were all fake.

As the 20th Century fades entrepenures will attempt to send tourists to it.

In the 1960s the Soviet Union & the US will race to place a probe on it first.

So i expand topic a little:
I think Soviet probe reached it first. Sort of. If was never announced (because of cults and conspiracies you mentioned), but NASA probe back in 1963 found a metric M8 nut wedged on asteroid surface. (Referring to Soyuz 11 disaster IOTL which killed 3 men due to may be improperly installed nut)