AH Vignette - It's Election Night, Jim

Sheffield, May 7th 2015

Prime Minister Nick Clegg was on all fours begging for mercy. The cartoonists would have had a field day but his young children didn't care. They were on holiday and Daddy was home early.

Miriam told them in Spanish to leave their father alone and go upstairs as the noise of the family at play was audible to the group of advisers sitting in the lounge on the other side of the house.

Nick got up and walked through the large house where he had spent hardly any time in the past five years and mentally composed himself as he walked toward the large lounge area where a group of familiar and not-so-familiar faces were in animted conversation.

Stopping at the large mirroe in the hall to ensure he didn't look too "Daddy", he mused as to where this life might take him next. The last five years had been manic ever since that conversation with David when the latter had deferred on the choice of Prime Minister.

He had spoken to David three days before - the campaign had been difficult for everyone, new parties and a new voting system throwing a boulder of chaos into the pond of uncertainty that had enveloped politics.

David had his problems - the TPA primarily as well as his backbenchers - and Nick had his - defending five years of Government. The debates had been shambolic - too many voices, more heat than light but he felt the interviews had gone well.

The economy was improving albeit slowly and unevenly and he had done as much as the Parliamentary numbers would allow to get the Liberal Democrat agenda enacted and, to be fair, David M had been a big help at times. After a rocky start, he had warmed to the Labour leader even through the schism and the creation of the Socialist Labour Party, or the Party of Mr & Mrs Balls as it was widely called with Ed Balls leading and Yvette Cooper as Deputy. Nick wondered how they would all survive the new political world.

He would miss the world stage - he had got to admire Barack and even Angela up to a point. Miriam and Michelle had bonded but in a way so little had been accomplished. The Islamic State was rampant, threatening Kirkuk, Aleppo and Baghdad all at once. There was no appetite for further foreign adventures but the price of freedom was indeed eternal vigilence.

As for Europe, he had tried to act as mediator between Greece and the Eurozone - Alexis Tsipras was a political idiot and would pay the price for his foolishness but Francois and Nick had failed to persuade Angela to be lenient - talking to her was, as Francois had jokingly said, like talking to your bank manager.

How would it go ? The polls were confused and confusing - the first preference numbers looked moderate but the second and third preferences were much more encouraging. His advisers had told him a deal with Labour and perhaps the Greens was possible - the SNP would do well in Scotland on first preferences but with very few second or third votes.

The other option was Conservative-TPA though the antipathy between David and Matthew Elliott (an odious individual, Nick mused) was palpable.

He looked across - his Chief of Staff was looking anxiously from the lounge.

As Nick walked in, the stentorian tones of David Dimbleby cut the air:

"Good Evening, It's 10pm and we have our exclusive exit poll from this unique British General Election - the first held under a Single Transferrable Vote System and the sensational news it that it appears.."
 
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Hello, stranger!

A fun little update on how things carried on in the wonderful For Want Of A Debate-verse. The only thing that struck me as a bit unrealistic, even in such a radically changing system, was Ed M joining a Labour split away from his brother's leadership. I'm not sure the same factors that made him challenge David (which were basically 'I don't think we'll win under you, I think I would be better') are necessarily the same in such a move, which strikes me as more ideologically rooted. It's more likely that Ed would try to act as a builder of bridges between Socialist Labour and Labour itself, while remaining in the latter. And Ralph Miliband has, sadly, been dead since 1994.

But overall a well-thought through picture. I do remember rumblings of the TPA becoming a political party a few years ago, it's plausible they'd do so here. I guess the Tory brand was badly damaged by Cameron's decision to 'hand power to the liberals' (IIRC the Tories got more seats, but the Lib Dems more votes?) and so their troubles have been butterflied. TPA as a more domestic-focused UKIP makes sense, though I do wonder what Farage and co are up to ITTL.

'Sensational news'! What is it, I wonder? I daresay any outcome of our first ever STV election (another thing I can struggle to see happening, actually, even ITTL - but I guess the magnitude of the Lib Dems leading a government can just about justify it) would be sensational. I'll indulge my own wish fulfilment ;)

Great to hear from you again, Stodge.
 
Thanks..

Hello to you, too, Meadow.

As you know, FWoAD ended in early 2012 and a lot has happened since then though we had the STV Referendum at that time which David M's Labour Party supported.

Cameron has had his problems - the TPA is a low-tax anti-EU pro-business party set up by Matthew Elliott and Liam Fox (remember him) in mid-2012 calling for much bigger spending cuts (except on armed forces naturally).

UKIP are much less important as TPA has stolen most of their clothes but they are on the ballot.

On the Labour side and I appreciate the need to tread carefully, the schism was slower in coming, David M tried to move the party back to a Blairite position and supported some of the Coalition policies which led to an internal upheaval which wasn't well handled by David M.

Fair point re Ed M and I suspect you're correct but Balls and the Brownite loyalists decide under STV they will win a tranche of MPs and can argue for their policies.

The election result - part of me doesn't really want to go any further with it to be honest. I've some ideas but it wasn't really the point to restart the whole thing - just a quick dip into the timeline.
 
Looking forward very much to see where this goes.

I agree with those who question whether Ed Miliband would have defected against his brother (and, for that matter, against the party he'd lived in most of his life). If he and Ed Balls had done so - and presumably taken the bulk of the centre and left of the OTL Labour Party, that does leave a big question about funding as presumably the Eds would have taken the unions and Co-Op with them too. After the cash-for-peerages scandal, and with Labour in opposition, what sort of person is going to donate to a Blairite New Labour post-2010?
 
Edited...

Following the wise interventions of Meadow and David Herdson, I've made an edit to the header.

David Miliband became Labour leader after the 2010 GE - I think it's fair to say he has struggled. In some respects, he has moved toward the LD part of the Coalition with a view to supplanting the Conservatives as a prospective Coalition partner post-2015.

However, a large part of the Labour Party wanted nothing to do with Nick Clegg or the LDs and sees the SNP and Greens as more likely partners but Ed Balls is discovering the SLP's reach is limited outside Labour heartlands but it is depriving the SNP of some votes in Scotland and is outpolling Labour in that country and is a close fourth in Wales.

Remember, under STV, 5% of the vote is going to get you 20 seats which may be influential in a new Government.
 
A View from part of Labour...

David Miliband had returned to London while his brother and Justine had stayed at the northern regional count, Ed Balls had been spotted at the same count and that was one individual David wanted to avoid at all costs.

They had barely spoken since the events of May 2010 when David had walked out of the collapsing Brown Government - Balls had been incandescent that time and the passage of time hadn't helped. Indeed, the personal animosity had led to outright schism in mid-2013 as Balls, tired of what he saw as David's retreat to Blairism, had led a small group of MPs out of the party and. backed by that idiot McCluskey, had formed Socialist Labour. He had even given a frontbench role to Jeremy Corbyn of all people.

David had been quietly happy with the campaign though Cameron and Clegg had tried to catch him out on economic policy and his relationships with the SNP. That hadn't been easy and Tony's endorsement was a double-edge sword at best. He hoped they could cleave off enough Conservative and Lib Dem preferences to be leader of the largest party but STV was a capricious beast and nobody quite knew how the preferences would go.

He was gratified Clegg hadn't endorsed Lib Dem second preferences for the Conservatives but that hadn't meant an endorsement for him and he had been unable, thanks to the Coalition, to encourage Labour second and third preferences to the Lib Dems which he saw as the route to a stable progressive Coalition albeit without Clegg who would obviously have to go.

He had got Caroline and Natalie to pledge Green second preferences but that wouldn't amount to much and while the Ulster people seemed genuinely enthusiastic the thought of relying on them gave him the shakes.

The pollsters had told him Balls would do well enough to pick up seats in London and parts of the North but the Midlands and the South were looking encouraging.

As with the Prime Minister, he had just entered his living room when the stentorian tones of David Dimbleby echoed through the warm May evening.
 
Another David..

David Cameron had also decided to eschew the bright lights of London and Party HQ for election night. He well remembered the pain and anguish of that night five years before and the recriminations...

Well, George could run that - he was really running the Party though in David's view, he was welcome to it if he could see off Boris.

He had told only one person other than Sam this would be his last election - he had spent the better part of a decade leading the Conservative Party which, to one of his trusted non-political friends, he had described as herding cats and by 2020 it would be fifteen years.

No, if he made it to No.10 he would serve three or four years and do a Blair or a Wilson - go at my own time, on my own terms, not as had happened to Margaret.

Being the No.1 Conservative candidate for the region had ensured his election though he would miss the informality and intimacy of Witney. He wouldn't miss being DPM or Nick's poodle as one or two had termed him. He quite liked Nick and his family as people but the honeymoon days of May 2010 were long past replaced by distance and tension. Yet he was proud of the Coalition and its achievements especially in restoring the public finances and undoing the disasters of Blair and especially Brown.

The election campaign had gone far more smoothly for him and the Party than 2010 - they had wanted Jim Messina to work for them but Barack had offered him to Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems and they had happily suckled at the teet of his wisdom.

Nick and I had agreed no mutual endorsement as soon as the STV Referendum had been passed - being in Government was one thing but the two parties were rivals and neither leader could sell the second preference deal to their fractious members.

David was worried about TPA and UKIP who were working together - Matthew Elliott and Liam Fox had done untold damage to the Conservative cause when they had set up the TPA in early 2013 - Elliott was a naive ideologue who claimed to have Margaret's endorsement but Fox, well, he had never forgiven David for accepting STV in May 2010 and had theatrically walked a la Heseltine but he had nowhere near the charisma or the hair.

Carswell was, David recognised, a formidable operator and intellect but had become fixated on getting Britain out of the EU. Nick had made noises about re-negotiation and David could dangle that in front of Douglas when the horse trading began but in his heart of hearts he suspected the older Miliband would be in Downing Street but all would not be lost.

Only two other people knew of the back-channel contact between the two Davids and as he settled to listen to David Dimbleby's pronouncements David Cameron knew the cats might yet have another surprise awaiting them and he hoped what he had told David M would be a help.
 
Of Photos and Finishes...

As a man who loved his horse racing, Alex Salmond enjoyed the thrill of the contest and the glamour of victory. In happier times, he had talked the turf with Robin Cook, in the days when Labour and the SNP were fellow travellers against the hated Tories.

Salmond had never warmed to Tony Blair but he had found a kindred spirit in Cook and had come to respect and even admire Donald Dewar, a different kind from Scot from Salmond but no one could deny he loved his country.

But they were all gone now - Smith, Dewar, Cook, even Charlie Kennedy had his problems, God knew, but they were memories for other times.

Tonight was his or theirs more accurately as he had listened to Nicola's impassioned speech having not long heard the dulcet tones of Sean calling from Hamilton - not of course THE Hamilton, the other one, in the Caribbean.

Now, Salmond realised, the horsetrading would begin. Perhaps, if the old system had survived, the SNP would have more seats but there could be no argument about Scotland being ruled by a majority England and if Nick Clegg had achieved anything at all for Scotland, it was that.

The price was the question or rather, not asking the question at once which had taken some selling but if the polls were right and the SNP went back to Westminster with 30 MPs or more, they could hold the line.

Salmond thought little of Nick Clegg but he had done well by Scotland - far more powers for Holyrood and for him as First Minister - but he was history. Cameron, for all his rhetoric, was an English Toff but Miliband - there was a horse of a different colour. A man "with whom I could do business" as the hated harridan once said about Gorbachev.

The trade off had been simple - keep the Labour Socialists down in Glasgow and elsewhere and once the votes were in, we'll talk about the question or rather when and how it would be asked. It was too much to expect Prime Minister Miliband to support a vote for independence but that didn't mean he had to be gung-ho for no as the likes of Cameron would be.

The only problem was the SNP had a big fight in Glasgow - the Slabbers who had gone with Balls and Livingstone and Corbyn and the others were the hard men, the street fighters - the SNP were in for a fight and boy, had there been one. Beyond the central belt, however, they were cleaning up, putting the Tories and Liberals to the sword but Socialist Labour, no, they wouldn't go down without a fight.

Dimbleby's announcement of the exit poll had passed him by but the cheers from the party downstairs told Alex Salmond all he needed to know...
 
Projections and Distortions...

"Prime Minister, I fear the worst", one of the young advisers leaned across to where Nick Clegg was trying to enjoy one of Miriam's delicious croquettas de pollo.

"In what way, Mike ?" the Prime Minister, concealing his annoyance at the interruption.

"I've crunched the exit poll numbers, matched them with Jim's weightings, factored in the preferences...."

"Allowed for a westerly wind" chimed in one of the other helpers unhelpfully.

"And..we come up short by about thirty. With the Greens we may just get over the line, with the Nats not quite unless we can count on any of the Irish or not count on them as may be"

Nick Clegg looked irritated - this was what he expected but not what he wanted to know. Taking a deep breath, he asked Mike quietly "what about the other two options ?"

Mike straightened and stiffened. He had prepared for the question ever since the call from Jim.

"Option 1 is definitely out but Option 2 looks viable" he said in as non-committal a way as possible.

"Keep me fully updated and tell Jim I want him on the phone in 15 minutes" - for the first time since 2010 Nick Clegg felt events slipping away from him. He saw Miriam in the corner of the room, he shook his head.

She turned away - Nick couldn't see the broad smile on her face.
 
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