AH Challenge: Superpower France
- Thread starter Glen
- Start date
This is a tough one. The main problem is that France proper (not including colonial possessions) is simply not very big, populous, or resource-laden compared to OTL superpowers. The Soviet Union and America completely dwarf it in every measure of potential power. I think that even if everything goes as well as possible for France in the 20th century, it will still not quite be a true superpower. Would you be satisfied with a scenario ending up with France as pre-eminent among the second-tier powers?
If so, a rough outline of a TL is forming in my head. Some factor (new policies, new medicine, whatever) causes a population explosion in France starting in 1900. With the first generation of these baby boomers coming to age right when WW1 ends, the French have enough extra citizens so that they don't have the demographic "lost generation" crisis as in OTL. France gets Alsace-Lorraine, financial concessions, and some colonial possessions off of Germany. Since the population is growing so fast, France continues on its OTL plan of colonialism, advanced twenty years or so. France ends up with West Africa (including Algiers), Indochina, etc. providing plenty of places to shunt its excess population off into. Because of all the extra settlers, the colonized countries are Gallicized and industrialized much more heavily than OTL, resulting in closer ties to the mother country. An economic bloc/defense pact of Francophone nations arises. Combining France proper plus all its colonial possessions, the Federation of Francophone Nations is the most formidable of all the second-tier powers.
Wildly implausible, but the best I can do at 2 in the AM.
If so, a rough outline of a TL is forming in my head. Some factor (new policies, new medicine, whatever) causes a population explosion in France starting in 1900. With the first generation of these baby boomers coming to age right when WW1 ends, the French have enough extra citizens so that they don't have the demographic "lost generation" crisis as in OTL. France gets Alsace-Lorraine, financial concessions, and some colonial possessions off of Germany. Since the population is growing so fast, France continues on its OTL plan of colonialism, advanced twenty years or so. France ends up with West Africa (including Algiers), Indochina, etc. providing plenty of places to shunt its excess population off into. Because of all the extra settlers, the colonized countries are Gallicized and industrialized much more heavily than OTL, resulting in closer ties to the mother country. An economic bloc/defense pact of Francophone nations arises. Combining France proper plus all its colonial possessions, the Federation of Francophone Nations is the most formidable of all the second-tier powers.
Wildly implausible, but the best I can do at 2 in the AM.
Glen
Moderator
srv fan said:
No. But you can use French colonial possessions to bolster France's strength.
That's a good start.
Figure that will take at least two more generations, during which the French will have to keep their reproduction figures high. So, we're talking about the 1960s before there's enough French to make this count for much.
Not bad, actually.
You know, you could also knock down the other contenders a notch or two.
France would likely do better in a timeline without war in Western Europe, too.
Well if you simply MUST have them as a true-blue superpower, France is going to have the be a lot more active colonially. Perhaps some "Great Man" (who we can rationalize as only being born because of the population explosion) formulates a French version of Manifest Destiny?
Good point. If France is going to keep these overseas possessions, we have to think up a way to decrease the effects of nationalism for non-Europeans WHILE increasing French nationalism in order to spur on colonialism and Gallicization. Otherwise, all the African and Indochinese possessions are going to revolt away.
More good points. Either eliminate massive European ground wars, or make them advantageous for France. Perhaps in ww1, the Russians are stronger than OTL, forcing the Germans to concentrate on the Eastern Front? If the Germans and Russians tire each other out, it becomes very ripe pickings for the French. If they grab enough German territory, they can keep Alsace Lorraine and demand all of Germany's colonies.
I think a ground war is neccesary to knock Germany down a few rungs. If they dont get their resources sapped by a massive confrontation (preferably with Russia), I think they will be stronger on the Continent than France, if not world-wide.
Glen
Moderator
srv fan said:
Seems reasonable. But probably won't start to come into play until mid-century.
Full rights for those who learn French? Also more assimilation laws? Encourage cross colonization, having upwardly mobile colonials of non-French origin given a chance to progress, but they are shuffled throughout the Empire so that they don't serve as a cadre for independence movements.
Russia would have to be a LOT stronger than OTL for that to work to French advantage as you suggest here.
Maybe. BTW, if there were no WWI, there'd also be no Wilsonian Fourteen Points, so self-determinism wouldn't get such a boost.
So maybe a WWI that the US doesn't join, but goes worse for the Central Powers. Have the Germans stall in Belgium, never getting to French soil? Bigger collapse of the German state with a successful break-away state in Bavaria?
Bright day
Aren't there only three countries in the world OTL that are real powers? Can deploy their forces anywhere around the globe? USA, UK, and France? Economically France is on par with UK in economy and population, and some argue that w\o the US contributions it is stronger than UK in military matters too. So I propose a motion that France already OTL is a Great Power, though a rather monor one
.
So first, I think, we need to establish, what exactly you think Great Power should be.
Aren't there only three countries in the world OTL that are real powers? Can deploy their forces anywhere around the globe? USA, UK, and France? Economically France is on par with UK in economy and population, and some argue that w\o the US contributions it is stronger than UK in military matters too. So I propose a motion that France already OTL is a Great Power, though a rather monor one
.So first, I think, we need to establish, what exactly you think Great Power should be.
Glen
Moderator
Gladi said:Bright day
Aren't there only three countries in the world OTL that are real powers? Can deploy their forces anywhere around the globe? USA, UK, and France? Economically France is on par with UK in economy and population, and some argue that w\o the US contributions it is stronger than UK in military matters too. So I propose a motion that France already OTL is a Great Power, though a rather monor one
So first, I think, we need to establish, what exactly you think Great Power should be.
I did not post an AH Challenge for France to be a Great Power, but rather a Superpower.
A Superpower would have put them on par with the US and/or the Soviet Union during the Cold War, or the US afterwards.
Darkest
Banned
I've always liked the idea of a superpower France, but I could never find a way to do it. The most plausible is that France takes the place of Nazi Germany, becomes a military state that sweeps through Europe and some of Russia, and develops nuclear technology to hold onto their new empire.
If at the end of WWI - or whatever replaces it in TTL, you can have France annex Belgium, the Rhineland and the Rhur, you'll have made quite a bit of progress.
But what needs to be boosted beside the general population? If the government was willing to raise defence budget considerably it could match US, not defeat but match, and afterall France is a nuclear power. Sure they cannot invade US or Russia, but so neither can those. France has wealth, good army, nuclear weapons, client states, military bases abroad - what more does it need?
Frankly the only likely situation is a real reduction in US/Russian power. France doesn't have the population or the resources to make a real challenge. France might, were they so inclined, be able to afford to match the current resources of the US in the field today, but the US could if they needed too quickly expand beyond French capabilities.
Thande
Donor
I'm surprised that no-one's mentioned the Frenchification of Algeria and the rest of French North/West Africa...didn't Ward do this in one of the Mosaic Earths? If all that becomes part of 'Greater France', with an educated population that's almost interchangeable with that of metropolitan France...
Burton K Wheeler
Moderator
Algeria/Morocco? Possibly, though education levels and prosperity won't be as much as Metropolitan France.Thande said:
West Africa? Other than the ruling elites, doubtful.
Even Ward's Mosaic France couldn't equal the Soviet Union, much less the U.S.
Okay, stay with me here:
Have Russia be a little stronger and have Italy join the CPs. Russia can take some of the pressure of France while France takes Nice, Sardinia and Sicily from Italy, maybe along with something by the Adriatic. Farther north they can make a stab toward Berlin, annexing A-L, parts of the Rhineland and maybe some other pieces.
After the war they could pick up the German and Italian colonies, parts of Austria-Hungary and keep what they got during the war.
After the war they might have some problems with non-French, maybe they could move them around a bit and improve education. If they see a threat from Germany, they'll attack.
If the Spanish Civil War still rolls around, they may intervene, picking up certain colonies and maybe parts of Spain proper.
Provided the Japanese still militarize, they'll have to keep them away from Indochina and their Pacific possesions, probably with British and Dutch help. Sounds like good time to pick up Taiwan.
What do you think? Should I do a map?
Have Russia be a little stronger and have Italy join the CPs. Russia can take some of the pressure of France while France takes Nice, Sardinia and Sicily from Italy, maybe along with something by the Adriatic. Farther north they can make a stab toward Berlin, annexing A-L, parts of the Rhineland and maybe some other pieces.
After the war they could pick up the German and Italian colonies, parts of Austria-Hungary and keep what they got during the war.
After the war they might have some problems with non-French, maybe they could move them around a bit and improve education. If they see a threat from Germany, they'll attack.
If the Spanish Civil War still rolls around, they may intervene, picking up certain colonies and maybe parts of Spain proper.
Provided the Japanese still militarize, they'll have to keep them away from Indochina and their Pacific possesions, probably with British and Dutch help. Sounds like good time to pick up Taiwan.
What do you think? Should I do a map?
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Glen
Moderator
Gladi said:
I quite agree. It could contend with the USA, even if it wasn't 'really' equal.
I think that France to be counted a Superpower in the 20th century would have needed to have a bigger navy, the ability to nuke civilization to the stone age, and a large, active space program.
Do these things and they are in the same ball park as the OTL Superpowers.
Hmmm....a World War II where the Fall of France doesn't quite occur, and instead the Russians are pushed to the Urals? Then somehow France bags the rocket scientists before any of the allies?
Probably have to remove Hitler from power early on, replace him with someone more rabidly anti-communist rather than obsessed with reversing Versailles.
Maybe prior to that have the Dreyfus Affair lead to sweeping legislation against anti-semitism, and entice nuclear scientists fleeing persecution in fascist Europe flee to France?
Anaxagoras
Banned
Actually, what about a reverse WWI? Have France defeated by Germany and subjected to a harsh peace. In the aftermath, have a right-wing nationalist resurgence in France rather than Germany (which, truth be told, would be very likely). Have France become a militarized power, and have France win a later European-conflict, perhaps in alliance with the Soviet Union.
ITTL, France might basically take the place of Nazi Germany had it won. And as France has demonstrated a high degree of technological ability, it is easy to envision France as the nation which develops jet aircraft and perhaps even nuclear weapons.
Here's a good POD- the United States never enters WWI. Therefore, France is ground down in 1918 AND the Americans never break free from their isolationism AND the 14 Points never stimulates anti-colonial sentiment.
(I'd get to work on a time-line, but everyone is already angry at me for not getting more work done on Rule Britannia and God is a Frenchman.)
ITTL, France might basically take the place of Nazi Germany had it won. And as France has demonstrated a high degree of technological ability, it is easy to envision France as the nation which develops jet aircraft and perhaps even nuclear weapons.
Here's a good POD- the United States never enters WWI. Therefore, France is ground down in 1918 AND the Americans never break free from their isolationism AND the 14 Points never stimulates anti-colonial sentiment.
(I'd get to work on a time-line, but everyone is already angry at me for not getting more work done on Rule Britannia and God is a Frenchman.)