AH: Ming Continues Maritime Expansion
- Thread starter Grouchio
- Start date
Basically what Faeelin said : they were the equivalent of Apollo Program for XVth China, and as most prestige projects, were polished by time and idealization (the famed Zheng He's junks may have been far less gigantic than their alleged size in largely posterior Chinese accounts).
It was neither really about trade (Chinese traders already made China Sea their own Mare Nostrum, under state tutelage), or colonization (China does not need to make colonies, does not need throwing banana) but about Yongle willing to mark himself as legitim against Mandarins and inner opposition (remember he used an ennuch-based administration and took the throne by revolt)...and what best than pointing that all peoples on Earth acknowledge you as the rightful emperor?
It was neither really about trade (Chinese traders already made China Sea their own Mare Nostrum, under state tutelage), or colonization (China does not need to make colonies, does not need throwing banana) but about Yongle willing to mark himself as legitim against Mandarins and inner opposition (remember he used an ennuch-based administration and took the throne by revolt)...and what best than pointing that all peoples on Earth acknowledge you as the rightful emperor?
It's difficult because China's economic situation was very different from Europe's. China was largely self contained and there weren't many resources or goods that weren't domestically available or conveniently close, like Mongolia or Vietnam. Europe on the other hand was seriously lacking in precious metals and luxury goods. That's what lead the massive trade imbalance and the later Opium Wars. Most of Spain's new world silver actually went straight to China in exchange for things like tea and silk.
That was probably one of the biggest reasons for the end of the major naval voyages. As important as they could have been, there was no economic incentive to continue them. They were little more than a vanity project for the Emperor and state. Show the flag, scare the locals, and come back with some new maps and exotic treasures.
It's a bit like the US and the Apollo project. Ok we went to the moon but there's nothing worth going back for, Earth has everything we need. Same with China and their voyages. Sure Africa and India are nice but there's nothing there that China doesn't have more of and cheaper.
Honestly the best answer for what happens if the voyages continue is: China gets some great maps of the Indian and Pacific Oceans, probably discovers Australia, and little else changes. China has no naval rivals so the Chinese navy rarely venture away from the Chinese region and mostly exist to collect taxes from Korean and Japanese ships and fight pirates. China, still inward looking gets left behind technologically and eventually gets stomped by foreign powers just like OTL.
(Edit: I see the Apollo analogy has already been made.)
That was probably one of the biggest reasons for the end of the major naval voyages. As important as they could have been, there was no economic incentive to continue them. They were little more than a vanity project for the Emperor and state. Show the flag, scare the locals, and come back with some new maps and exotic treasures.
It's a bit like the US and the Apollo project. Ok we went to the moon but there's nothing worth going back for, Earth has everything we need. Same with China and their voyages. Sure Africa and India are nice but there's nothing there that China doesn't have more of and cheaper.
Honestly the best answer for what happens if the voyages continue is: China gets some great maps of the Indian and Pacific Oceans, probably discovers Australia, and little else changes. China has no naval rivals so the Chinese navy rarely venture away from the Chinese region and mostly exist to collect taxes from Korean and Japanese ships and fight pirates. China, still inward looking gets left behind technologically and eventually gets stomped by foreign powers just like OTL.
(Edit: I see the Apollo analogy has already been made.)
RousseauX
Donor
It depends on if this is a college level of high school level assignment you are doing.
If it's highschool level giving the best historical answer might not be as good as writing a juxtaposition story where it's 2015 and China is concerned about jobs being outsourced to low cost labor in America for your grade.
Faeelin
Banned
Although, if you look at silver as a commodity, then this isn't that problematic.
I think looking at the Ming treasure fleets and saying that they were uneconomical ignores that the Ming were also hostile at many occasions (but not always!) to overseas trade. A Ming state that welcomed revenue from foreign expeditions would be a more interesting POD.
Saphroneth
Banned
If you want to be really daring (from the point of view of historical plausibility, at least - it'll go down well with your teachers I imagine!) you could suggest some Chinese adventurers discovering and colonizing America.
Not all of it at once, of course - just (say) the Pacific Northwest at first.
Not all of it at once, of course - just (say) the Pacific Northwest at first.
Was there a wide interest on Chinese goods among its neighbors? If so, maybe Chinese merchants living overseas and selling their goods might be more common, and even have a large impact on history. I recall there were some states ruled by people of Chinese descent in Malaysia, I think? What if they decide to take a more thassalocratic approach, like Venice?
Taking the thrust of this largely from NAM Rodger-
Successful navies need, and breed, large and more or less permanent shoreside organisations to build, recruit, victual, provide for and generally administer. Continuity of personnel and administration is essential.
They put down deep roots into their country of origin, and exert profound effects on the political and industrial landscape. Exactly the sort of thing the Chinese really should have been good at, but to judge by results actually really weren't; without them all you get is epiphytes like, yes, Zheng He.
How different China would have to become in order to sustain a maritime presence, that is the question. In practise there are feedback loops that failed to achieve takeoff, interest did not breed commitment which did not breed success which could arouse interest, etc.
Successful navies need, and breed, large and more or less permanent shoreside organisations to build, recruit, victual, provide for and generally administer. Continuity of personnel and administration is essential.
They put down deep roots into their country of origin, and exert profound effects on the political and industrial landscape. Exactly the sort of thing the Chinese really should have been good at, but to judge by results actually really weren't; without them all you get is epiphytes like, yes, Zheng He.
How different China would have to become in order to sustain a maritime presence, that is the question. In practise there are feedback loops that failed to achieve takeoff, interest did not breed commitment which did not breed success which could arouse interest, etc.
Due to the threat of the Mongols my treasure fleets could not be sustained but with a little more vision it is not impossible for my successors to maintain a presence in the Indian Ocean (Arab traders noted Chinese trading junks in Aden in the 1100s).
Even a few Chinese ships off East Africa in the late 1400s could have scared the snot out of the Portuguese. That in fact would be a significant POD from the OTL. As it was, in the OTL when the Portuguese did show up off of East Africa, a few very old people who did remember my ships remarked to the newcomers that many years earlier white people had been there in much larger ships than their tiny caravels.
Altough the junks were indeed larger, we're talking of the double size of the caravels, that happen as well to be better armed (as Indians soon discovered) and slightly more manoeuvrable. I'm not sure their very size would have been enough to repeal Portuguese out of Eastern Africa or Western Indias (while preventing them to go in Eastern Indias and of course further east is another story all together)
I think there could be a psychological factor of the Portuguese reaction when De Gama and his three or four small ships and 170 or so men run into a similar number of ships twice their size or even a little larger.
At this time many Europeans thought the Cape of Good Hope was the gates of hell and they really were afraid of getting swallowed by monsters or whirlpools or whatever if they went out of sight of land or around the Cape. Many didn't even like going below the equator because they lost the North Star.
If they are coming up the coast of Africa and they find that somebody else is already there with bigger ships (and these guys may only be the advance force) they just might crap their pants and turn around.
Of course he could then come back with an even bigger fleet than the 20 ships he returned with on his second OTL voyage around the Cape.
I made the Apollo analogy in this thread because I wanted to chide America's short-sighted policy wrt space and imminent decline because of that policy
Would you have so much junks in the region, though? These fleets didn't come cheap and worked better in force : splitting them away for mere reason of prestige may make the whole thing cost even more than it did IOTL (and even for China, it cost a LOT)
Assuming these myths even had any influence historically, they stopped to do so at least in the mid-XVth century, with African explorations, and discovery of brand new coasts (unknown even to Arab traders, at the contrary of Eastern Africa).
Giving the mindset of Portuguese sailors and expeditions...They might me more wary, but frankly, they were there to give it a try : there's no way a that costly expedition would be given up only because of Chinese presence (assuming Chinese would even be interested going at war with some Portuguese ships. What would have they even to win there? For the lulz?)
While Zheng He's voyages were really of short-term consequence, they do indicate that China still possessed significant naval expertise inherited from the navally-oriented Song and Yuan Dynasties. Continued state-sponsored voyages will keep this naval knowledge alive to some degree, but only with a significant expansion in Ming maritime trade would this knowledge really be expanded.
It is possible to see trade as part of a 'prestige' project - the Yuan encouraged maritime trade as part of a strategy to make SE Asia economically dependent on China (and by extension the Khan/Emperor), as well as pave the way for further conquests.
There are several issues with Chinese trade:
1) Balance of payments. Contrary to the common view of Chinese trade with foreigners, the significant volume of Chinese trade during the Song and Yuan period actually caused a balance of payments issue in China, as its gentry classes imported huge quantities of pearls, spices and incense while paying for the goods in cash.
In such a light, the restrictions on trade imposed by the Ming and Qing in later periods was as much about keeping as much cash in the country (largely through creating artificial monopolies, such as limiting the number of trading ports) as it was about foreign influence.
2) Influence of merchants. To sustain Chinese maritime expansion one would also have to nurture a well of naval expertise (sailing, shipbuilding and so on), which can really only be done on a large scale with promotion of maritime trade: indeed, the Chinese merchant class was a critical components of Song and Yuan naval policy, who subsidized and promoted the merchant marine on the condition that they be usable for war.
However, having too strong a merchant class would weaken the state's hold over the country. The Song and Yuan both saw the emergence of a strong 'trade lobby' that regularly lobbied for tariff decreases and state retreat from the economy. In extreme cases you also had merchants becoming powerful local strongmen who could make or break dynasties - Pu Shougeng (an Arab)'s defection to the Yuan after Hangzhou fell basically handed the rest of the Song Dynasty to the Mongols. Even if you don't buy the Neo-Confucian distaste for merchants, this potential threat to state power is also something to consider when thinking about the Chinese restrictions on trade.
3) Priorities. The Song Dynasty was 'forced' into the sea, so to speak, by the closure of the overland caravan trade due to strong nomad confederations on its northern border - the situation became more acute once the navy became the key to the survival of the Southern Song. By the time of the Ming Dynasty China had regained control of its northern frontier and was once again turning towards a continental configuration, where defending the threat of Mongolia and Central Asia on land became the main priority of the state. As such, precious few resources could be spent on the navy, which went into a decline.
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If Zheng He's voyages were followed up on, we'd likely see a greater Chinese interest in the West, especially in India. Certainly the Ming Dynasty would take an interest in establishing important maritime outposts along the India-China trade route such as Palembang (Jiugang), Malacca, and Champa. I think overseas colonization is probably not likely since the Ming already have enough colonizing to do on their south- and north-west frontiers: most likely the Emperors would be satisfied with tribute and submissions of fealty from local leaders.
When the Europeans arrive I think we'd probably see a proxy war over trade-routes, with the Ming and Portugal/Spain intervening regularly to place their leaders on the various SE Asian thrones. Discovery of America... possible, but not likely, since the goods China was interested in were from India and SE Asia, not Europe, so the Chinese don't have much of a reason to go for an Eastern route to Europe.
It is possible to see trade as part of a 'prestige' project - the Yuan encouraged maritime trade as part of a strategy to make SE Asia economically dependent on China (and by extension the Khan/Emperor), as well as pave the way for further conquests.
There are several issues with Chinese trade:
1) Balance of payments. Contrary to the common view of Chinese trade with foreigners, the significant volume of Chinese trade during the Song and Yuan period actually caused a balance of payments issue in China, as its gentry classes imported huge quantities of pearls, spices and incense while paying for the goods in cash.
In such a light, the restrictions on trade imposed by the Ming and Qing in later periods was as much about keeping as much cash in the country (largely through creating artificial monopolies, such as limiting the number of trading ports) as it was about foreign influence.
2) Influence of merchants. To sustain Chinese maritime expansion one would also have to nurture a well of naval expertise (sailing, shipbuilding and so on), which can really only be done on a large scale with promotion of maritime trade: indeed, the Chinese merchant class was a critical components of Song and Yuan naval policy, who subsidized and promoted the merchant marine on the condition that they be usable for war.
However, having too strong a merchant class would weaken the state's hold over the country. The Song and Yuan both saw the emergence of a strong 'trade lobby' that regularly lobbied for tariff decreases and state retreat from the economy. In extreme cases you also had merchants becoming powerful local strongmen who could make or break dynasties - Pu Shougeng (an Arab)'s defection to the Yuan after Hangzhou fell basically handed the rest of the Song Dynasty to the Mongols. Even if you don't buy the Neo-Confucian distaste for merchants, this potential threat to state power is also something to consider when thinking about the Chinese restrictions on trade.
3) Priorities. The Song Dynasty was 'forced' into the sea, so to speak, by the closure of the overland caravan trade due to strong nomad confederations on its northern border - the situation became more acute once the navy became the key to the survival of the Southern Song. By the time of the Ming Dynasty China had regained control of its northern frontier and was once again turning towards a continental configuration, where defending the threat of Mongolia and Central Asia on land became the main priority of the state. As such, precious few resources could be spent on the navy, which went into a decline.
===
If Zheng He's voyages were followed up on, we'd likely see a greater Chinese interest in the West, especially in India. Certainly the Ming Dynasty would take an interest in establishing important maritime outposts along the India-China trade route such as Palembang (Jiugang), Malacca, and Champa. I think overseas colonization is probably not likely since the Ming already have enough colonizing to do on their south- and north-west frontiers: most likely the Emperors would be satisfied with tribute and submissions of fealty from local leaders.
When the Europeans arrive I think we'd probably see a proxy war over trade-routes, with the Ming and Portugal/Spain intervening regularly to place their leaders on the various SE Asian thrones. Discovery of America... possible, but not likely, since the goods China was interested in were from India and SE Asia, not Europe, so the Chinese don't have much of a reason to go for an Eastern route to Europe.
Probably not since four Portuguese ships might be smaller but they probably outgun the entire Chinese navy. De Gama and the 4th Portuguese India Armada of 20 ships sailed around the Indian Ocean largely with impunity. By the 1500s Europe's lead in weapon technology was pretty firm.