Trinity fails; what next?

Since this lasted less than two hours in the writers' area, I'm going to post this for the general audience to respond to. I hope it generates more than two responses...

Positing some alternaties, aka "What happen? Someone set us up the bomb!"

Okay, I don't want you to do my writing for me, per se, just asking for some AH'er help to process through things a bit faster. I'm in the middle of an academic paper and don't have as much freetime to plotting on my fiction work right now, so I'm tossing this out to get some perspectives. It's like using a faster, parallel-processing computer to work on a problem rather than trying to work it out with a solar calculator...

Anyway, the POD at hand:

World War II, our reality. War in Europe is already over. War with Japan is reaching its end...July, 1945.

The Trinity test fails. There *is* an explosion, but the result is a nuclear accident, not a capable weapon. The type A bomb ("Little Boy") is already in the Pacific theater, awaiting deployment, but after the failure in New Mexico, Truman is reticent to use it. The war department is divided; some advocate its use, others argue against. The scientific community is dead set against it.

What happens next, and over the next few months? The war will inevitably be won by the US and its allies, but by what means and what cost? Any and all suggestions (ie, use the bomb, don't use the bomb) will be welcomed.

Many thanks in advance!

Well, if the bomb is ready to be used, I think the war department will go along with the attack. Tentavively, yes, but it they had been betting so much money on that device. It was a million American soldiers or the bomb, and they would at least have risked the pilots just to see if the bomb would work.

Here you go to start [ http://home.att.net/~sallyann4/invasion1.html ]

Well whe will probally have the disaster on okinawa October the 8th so the invasion will be postponed till spring.

I expect that the Fat Boy will be tested, in Nakumo, if it works then the folowing bombs would be used to clear the Beaches for the Invasion in April.

Meanwhile the Japs will be retreating from China into Korea, determined to make the Russians pay for every inch.

If the bomb dont work you would end up with a lot of dead Americans,British and Australians (Dont know if the canadians would have been involved in op olympic)

That's a great resource, there, DuQuense! Nice find.

Read the postscript eventually. There was a second kamikaza that might very well have dashed the plans of the American Navy to invade Japan. Ugh. It could have been a horrible campaign. A million men dead? How about twice that much?

Very interesting scenario, indeed. Though I would like to remove atomic bombs completely by putting Lise Meitner in a German prison, which she came incredibly close to when she fled Germany. Her actions afterward confirmed that the field of nuclear physics could be used as a weapon, for the creation of the Manhatten Project.

But, I don't want to hijack a thread.

Certainly a world where the nukes had been utilized less efficiently would be very interesting, due to the alternate Japanese invasion. Can the Red Army beat the USA?

I once read that the Japanese had planned / threatened to kill all their POWs if the Allies should invade the main islands. Not sure about it... could that happen?

I think feelers for conditional surrender (with the Emporer staying) would be taken more seriusly

First off, Truman would push the scientific community on whether or not Little Boy was viable. He would undoubtedly get a yes...but we think it's a bad idea. At which point Truman orders the bombing of Hiroshima.
As far as the peace feelers go, I think the U.S. had worked itself up to the idea of "unconditional surrender" so much and the Japanese government was still playing softshoe games over the wording that the feelers would inevitable fail. At least until both sides saw how high the causaulties were and wondered if they could both save face.

I appreciate the link, DuQuense. It will be good background at the very least.

I am leaning against deployment of "Little Boy" in order to raise the tension level between factions in the War Dept/White House. It may get used, it may not...that's part of the suspense, of course.

If anyone can recommend other good online resources for studying the Klaus Fuchs/Rosenberg intrigues, I'd appreciate that as well. My intent is to make this more of a Cold War/spy novel that rides the coattails of WW2. The war will figure in, of course, but in this instance America gets badly burned and suddenly loses much of its national will to push the battle against Japan. The majority of the population just wants the war to end, immediately, bring the boys home and lick our wounds. Truman, though he agrees with the sentiment, also knows we can't just drop the war like a hot potato and must force Japan's surrender.

nothing would change. the japanese were more influenced by the entry of the soviets into the war, than by the dropping of the atom bombs. invasion wouldn't be necessary and the atomic bomb would never be used in anger in ww2. now without that stigma, when the bomb is ready, it may be used in other wars, like korea.

There are two aspects to this WI.

1) I cannot Imagine a situation where there is a nuclear accident and the bomb fails. There are four scenarios I can foresee:
a) Premature explosion. This will result in minimal loss of life if the project follows the same procedure they used in OTL and load the thing on site. If they don't you could potentially get your horrible accident from a premature detonation wipe out most of the Manhatten staff perhaps but they know the bomb works. Potentially the project is a write off BUT they know it works so they can repeat the work.
b) Fizzle. Incomplete criticallity initiated. They have to test another bomb but they know they have a potential weapon.
c) It fails to detonate. Maybe there is a physical explosion, maybe not. They check the design, check the build or build another bomb as appropriate and try again.
d) It fails to detonate and they have screwed up the fundamental physics. Pretty unlikely it has to be said but this could result in several months delay.

2) August Storm goes in on time, it has to in order to satisy Anglo-American demands and fullfill obligations. Instead of stopping the Soviet advance continues into northern China and an amphibious/air assault on Hokkido. At that point Japan may seek to surender to the Soviets or alternatively try to negotiate with the Western Allies to forstall Soviet occupation, take your pick.

wiking said:

nothing would change. the japanese were more influenced by the entry of the soviets into the war, than by the dropping of the atom bombs. invasion wouldn't be necessary and the atomic bomb would never be used in anger in ww2. now without that stigma, when the bomb is ready, it may be used in other wars, like korea.

Click to expand...

I doubt even then, by 1950 remember, the Soviets had the bomb.

WI, while we're contemplating the failure, the Japanese bomb works? (maybe, maybe not, assume it does for purposes of the story) they blow up San Diego and then Los Angeles in August. They say they have more.

They'll be willing to settle for the Phillipines, China and some of the Dutch oil fields. Pearl Harbor must be demilitarized and the US Navy forbidden access to the Pacific, except for Coastal Defense.

What would the US do?

The only trouble is, there wasn't a Japanese bomb. See Dower's essay in (IIRC) his collection, JAPAN IN PEACE AND WAR.

Tenebrous Proficient said:

That's a great resource, there, DuQuense! Nice find.

Read the postscript eventually. There was a second kamikaza that might very well have dashed the plans of the American Navy to invade Japan. Ugh. It could have been a horrible campaign. A million men dead? How about twice that much?

Very interesting scenario, indeed. Though I would like to remove atomic bombs completely by putting Lise Meitner in a German prison, which she came incredibly close to when she fled Germany. Her actions afterward confirmed that the field of nuclear physics could be used as a weapon, for the creation of the Manhatten Project.

But, I don't want to hijack a thread.

Certainly a world where the nukes had been utilized less efficiently would be very interesting, due to the alternate Japanese invasion. Can the Red Army beat the USA?

Click to expand...

If it wasn't Meitner, Hahn and Strassman would have figured out what was happening in a few months, possibly after Neils Bohr was arrested so he would be unable to escape with the news and use it to get Einstein make Roosevelt start Manhattan. Meitner steadfastly refused to help in the creation of the bomb and this may be one of the reasons the diplomatic/scientific community so effectively cut her out of credit for what was admittedly her idea first for almost 60 years+

Prunesquallor said:

The only trouble is, there wasn't a Japanese bomb. See Dower's essay in (IIRC) his collection, JAPAN IN PEACE AND WAR.

Click to expand...

Not proven. I said to work with me, Cmon. (sheesh, everybody with all these FACTS )

Hey, start your own thread, corporal, lest I send Wellington after you!

Tielhard is tap-dancing close to what happens, but I don't feel comfortable giving any more away. The failure of the Trinity test only sets the stage for what follows, so I don't want to give it more thought than is necessary.

I think I will run with Truman stepping up the firebombing campaign, while diplomatically reminding the Japanese that the Soviets are approaching rapidly. If his hand is forced, he will use "Little Boy," perhaps after the typhoon strike at Okinawa.

Da di da di da dah! Da di da di da dah! I'm signing and dancing in the rain tapadetapadetap!

They where no real quams about the "Little Boy" working. Which is why it was never tested. It was a Plutotium based bomb they werent sure about which is why Trinity happened so if the "Gadget" doesnt work they would more the likely Test the gun design to see if it does.And as on 8/6/45 as it did over Hiroshima when it worked when they tested it It would be used on Japan. Just that Nukes would develop slower then they did OLT.

Failed Atomic Bomb

A few thoughts on this - in an episode of "Sliders", the failure of the A-Bomb project was down to Einstein who apparently convinced the scientific ocmmunity that there wasn't enough uranium in the world to create nuclear fission and that therefore an atomic "bomb" was theoretically impossible.

Ok - back to the scenario. Firstly, Stalin would soon know and it would affect US-Soviet dealings over Japan. The Russians take Manchuria and the whole of Korea as well as Sakhalin and the Kurile Islands. In addition, Soviet forces would push into northern China and ally with Chinese Communist elements so perhaps Mao is in Beijing in the winter of 1945 rather than 1949.

As for Japan itself, I've had countless arguments about Soviet capabilities for a seaborne landing on Hokkaido. Some say the Russians didn't have the transport ships, others say they could use the Amur River flotilla with modifications. I think even a small Soviet force in Hokkaido would give the Russians a say in the political future of Japan.

On the other hand, the Japanese knew that while the surrender would be humiliating, the Emperor would remain albeit in a much-diminished role. I cannot conceive of the Russians wanting Hirohito in any shape or form. I suspect the Japanese would capitulate for that reason alone.

Final thought, the Americans actively considered using poison gas in Japan and defoliant to sabotage the rice crop. The cost in economic and human terms of such actions would have been monumental and the psychological impact would have been severe. Imagine if instead of pictures of the shattered and irradiated city of Hiroshima, we had pictures of an undamaged city and its population lying dead in the streets.

In the absence of nuclear weapons, the "horror" would be chemical or biological attack and a new balance of terror would come to exist between Washington and Mosciw based on a different form of Mutually Assured Destruction.