So, Java has 140 million people with a density of about 1 100 people/km2. Sumatra meanwhile has about 90 people/km2, Borneo about 26, and New Guinea about 14. If those other islands had Java's population we'd be looking at almost 900 million New Guineans, somewhat over 800 million Borneans, and 500 million Sumatrans. I suspect that Java is probably an importer of food from the other islands, so equal densities would be unlikely (the density it after all twice that of Honshu in Japan and only really matched by Bangladesh as full countries of significant population go). However even half that density (in line with South Korea or Taiwan) would easily give a population over a billion and rivaling China or India across the Archipelago. Is such a thing possible with an old enough PoD, or are most of the islands involved just not suit to that level of density by way of soil or climate?
Carrying Capacity of Malay Archipelago
- Thread starter Beedok
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Java has always has the largest population for at least the last 2 millenia since its land is dominated by vulcanic arable soil. Sumatra has too much peat land and was historically rather thinner then present day. There's a reason why Srivijaya was a trade-ports-focused thallasocracy. Though you might want to point out the Cham case, where they had been sitting on what the Vietnamese will later view as future lebensraum for centuries without actually developing extensive agriculture when they should've been able to, or Malay Peninsula which until recently was sparsely populated. But there's no doubt they were seriously influenced by Srivijayan political model.
What I would regard as serious potential for additional agrarian central would be the area covered by South and Central Kalimantan provinces. Kalimantan is largely ancient jungles covering mountainous terrains when it's not peat land and swamp but there are some arable river valleys such as that as well as Kutai valley in East Kalimantan, if smaller. Had Dayak Besar actually developed into extensive agricultural society early enough, even on just Bugis level at the beginning it won't just cease to be Javanese natural lebensraum target, they'll might become to Java a menace a la Japan was to China.
Another potential is obviously Papua. But you gotta cheat with some mutations a la Jared's LoRaG to pull this off. And also you can't have Austronesian settlement to start it with since Austronesians came from the north, so the Highlands and Asmat lower plains are way beyond their reach.
There's no way other island can have Javanese population density. Central Kalimantan plains alone might come rather close, but it's just a fifth of the whole island. Papuan soil isn't very good for rice cultivation without modern technology, and as mentioned it's not like the best parts are within the reach of ancient Austronesians. I imagine Papua could've multiplied its population by 5 to 7 times at most. Approximately 50 to 70 millions. A lot stronger then OTL. But it doesn't come nearly anywhere near Javanese population density.
What I would regard as serious potential for additional agrarian central would be the area covered by South and Central Kalimantan provinces. Kalimantan is largely ancient jungles covering mountainous terrains when it's not peat land and swamp but there are some arable river valleys such as that as well as Kutai valley in East Kalimantan, if smaller. Had Dayak Besar actually developed into extensive agricultural society early enough, even on just Bugis level at the beginning it won't just cease to be Javanese natural lebensraum target, they'll might become to Java a menace a la Japan was to China.
Another potential is obviously Papua. But you gotta cheat with some mutations a la Jared's LoRaG to pull this off. And also you can't have Austronesian settlement to start it with since Austronesians came from the north, so the Highlands and Asmat lower plains are way beyond their reach.
There's no way other island can have Javanese population density. Central Kalimantan plains alone might come rather close, but it's just a fifth of the whole island. Papuan soil isn't very good for rice cultivation without modern technology, and as mentioned it's not like the best parts are within the reach of ancient Austronesians. I imagine Papua could've multiplied its population by 5 to 7 times at most. Approximately 50 to 70 millions. A lot stronger then OTL. But it doesn't come nearly anywhere near Javanese population density.
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Okay, thanks. I saw one place mention poorer soils away from Java and Bali, but that was all.
The particular scenario I was asking for has a very old PoD which has China and the Middle East both fail as cultural zones, so the Papuans will be settling a lot of things their way with some Jared-like agricultural boosts happening. The world as a whole has a stronger equatorial rather than temperate agricultural package, so that might sneak a few more folks in.
I was hoping for a bit bigger of a population than that, but I suppose a capacity for another 100-150 million in the area is the cap?
I tried with this PoD once before. It's going to boost population, but most effectively so through intermixing with Austronesians. Rice is just that strong as population booster.
Yeah that's about right. Actually, Indonesia is possibly heading that way as we speak.
Flocculencio
Donor
Ridwan pretty much somes it up. Java is exceptional because it has some of the most fertile land in the world.
I'd add that even on the Malay Peninsula, outside Kedah and some of the river valleys, you don't get that much easy arable land- it's mostly mountains and jungle once you move away from the rivers.
And possibly with accompanying disasters because of my nation's policy of Transmigration...It is causing too many deforestation
Faeelin
Banned
The interesting question, at least to me, is why it took until the 19th century for population to boom in the region. A lot of the changes were the result of more stable governments creating more stable agricultural regimes...
It's true. Java has always been the most populous island in the region but the current population boom was a product of cultuurstelsel. But it would've been even better had Java escaped colonial rule and managed to consolidate post-Majapahit. They could've, but the Dutch were kinda in the way.
Population seems to be based on political dominance. Java was the center of the empire pre colonial times. While the dutch used the island as capital.
Arable land only matters if you aim not to import food outside a specific region regardless if you are part of a larger empire like the dutch or the spanish. But yes, technically all of those islands can have more population than Java. The question would matter if those islands would be the center of political dominance.
Java had political dominance because it had population. Not the other way around.
Kalimantan as whole might be. Papua ? Perhaps in the distant future. Sumatra was a site of sophisticated trading empires yet it was kinda low in population outside of Minangkabau and Batakland, which were NOT the center of Sumatran historical trading empires. It does says something about Sumatra's population cap, I'd say. If it was arable to begin with Sumatrans would have started with agrarian empires.
Though we can always prevent Java from developing.
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Out of interest Ridwan Asher, what do you think was the latest point that the native Javanese polities could've thrown off Dutch control? I don't necessarily mean removing them fully from Java itself, but a successful reassertion of native sovereignty. From my limited knowledge of Javanese history I've always thought that Mangkubumi/Hamengkubuwono The First had an outside chance at defeating the Dutch attempts to control Mataram, but that after him any serious attempt would probably end up pretty much like the Java War. Do you think that he could've pulled off a more complete victory, or perhaps after the division of Mataram that he could've inherited Surakarta and rebuilt Mataram's power more fully? Perhaps a more competent successor of his could've taken advantage of the Netherlands weakness during the turn of the century and forced them out of (Javanese) Java?
I would say the latest opportunity was Diponegoro's war, on the condition that something will delay Dutch reinforcement from across the sea. Diponegoro's Kingdom won't really go separate ways from Netherlands and eventually Dutch economic penetration will return, but we'll still be talking about a very different Java and NEI.
But the best opportunity would be during Java War of 1741-43, or what we should call as "Javanese and Chinese War". But we'll need Pakubuwono II to have a different, more assertive personality. If only he was, he could've actually driven VoC from Java.
Hamengkubuwono/Mangkubumi certainly had his chance, but it's necessary to prevent the falling out between him and his leading general Raden Mas Said. I forgot what the dispute was about though.
But the best opportunity would be during Java War of 1741-43, or what we should call as "Javanese and Chinese War". But we'll need Pakubuwono II to have a different, more assertive personality. If only he was, he could've actually driven VoC from Java.
Hamengkubuwono/Mangkubumi certainly had his chance, but it's necessary to prevent the falling out between him and his leading general Raden Mas Said. I forgot what the dispute was about though.
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Interesting, I'd always thought Diponegoro didn't really have a serious chance. The history of Java's subjugation by the Dutch seems like one long list of missed opportunities for the Javanese. Bantenese/Sundanese too - I've always liked the idea of Banten remaining a major maritime state.
Surviving Banten means that the Dutch fail to permanently set foot on Java to begin with.
That's right when mercantilism is the only capability of that society. However, once you got a globe spanning empire wherein Java isn't the center, that can affect which is the center of population in south east Asia.
Javas population of 140m in resent day isn't assured unless oto happens which the Dutch center of the region is Java, Indonesia unifies and center is Java.
Flocculencio
Donor
That plus new resource extraction industries bringing large numbers of non-rice farming dependent populations to the region. The tin and rubber industries caused a boom in areas unsuitable for foodstuffs as well as in new urban areas that serviced these. It's notable that before independence the (traditional agriculture based) Malay population of the Malay Peninsula was actually outnumbered by the chinese and Indian population combined (both groups mainly employed in tin and rubber production and mercantile services)
You have to re-write the regional history for at least two millenia before European arrival. Perhaps it's possible to reverse Kalimantan/Borneo and Java. So we'll have Kalimantan which successfully develops into rice-based feudal society while Java remains a tribal sort of place. But I don't think Java's geography and geology makes it as resistance as Kalimantan towards outside colonization. And with all that fertile soils, everyone else will be up for grabs if Javanese themselves aren't "present".
They don't have to rewrite for 2 millennia. The op just wanted to know if it is possible to have the same population density as in other islands in the malay archipelago as Java.
Nations can artificially put population to those islands and change the environment.
Luzon for example was similar to borneo Upto the point the spanish started chopping trees, planting fields, putting colonists, encourage chinese business therefor chinese migrants, higher population growth. The spanish beating brunei in a different timeline could have made borneo as densely populated as luzon. If Java had resisted european conquest, and Sumatra made capital of the Dutch, populationwould have change a lot from otl.
Technology aNd management are also a factor to these. Under the romans in earlier centuries, anatolia had as large population as medieval france upto the point that the romans lost the ability to move food around(from egypt etc) and the constant changing of ownership of anatolia, hard to grow food. That population gap was never reached again until recent times. Although today that has normalize to roman times with turkey out populating france.
Flocculencio
Donor
You do realise that Java was the population centre of the East Indies way before the advent of the Europeans? It's simply fertile in a way that Borneo or Sumatra will never be.
Unless OP are willingly to have ASB or something create many Volcanoes or large rivers like Yangtze to fertiling its land