When Dynasties Crumble
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For There Was No One Else
It was September 8, 2003, and the approval ratings of President George W. Bush had just hit the 50% mark. Democrats looked at the incumbent as beatable. There was a sense victory was upon them, if only there was a candidate who could defeat the conservative whose presidency rose to national prominence and success after the 9/11 terrorist attacks showed his leadership. To the Democratic Party, George Bush had stolen the 2000 Presidential Election and they were not about to concede another race. Not yet. Not so early. Not so easily. But who of the current contenders could really defeat the man who climbed to the top of smoldering rubbled and proclaimed that the terrorists who knocked down the Twin Towers would hear all Americans soon? Howard Dean? The Governor of Vermont who was adored by liberals but made centrists Democrats roll their eyes and shake their heads - he would not do. John Kerry? The stiff Senator from Massachusetts with a personal fortune that outweighed the three purple hearts he'd won in Vietnam - perhaps. Dick Gephardt? The lovable centrist Congressman - he was a bore to many, too safe.
And so the pleas began in earnest. At first it was slow - the wishful thinking of a commentator or two. And then more and more Democrats heaped on to say she was the one. If not now, when? By the end of August there was a growing movement to see her enter the race, and all the junior Senator from New York could say was she was far too interested in serving the people of her state - a state some had questioned she sincerely wanted to represent. But in truth, Hillary Rodham Clinton was very much considering a presidential campaign to challenge George W. Bush. She had planned on running in 2008, but feared now that Bush could lose reelection, that 2008 would be the year for a Democratic incumbent, and that 2012 would be too far away for her to mount a campaign as a fresh face. If she were going to run, it would need to be now. Her daughter Chelsea was not fully on board. But after a talk with President Clinton, Chelsea agreed to four (or was it to be eight?) more years in the White House to see her mother fulfill a long held goal. Politics, after all, was the family business.
On September 7th, President Bill Clinton sat down with Tim Russert on NBC's Meet the Press and talked openly about his thoughts of the Bush Administration. He shied from total criticism, but said he had reservations about the president's leadership. And when Russert asked who he was supporting for the 2004 Democratic Nomination, the former president said he'd need to wait so that he could see the rest of the field. At the end of the interview, President Clinton told millions of viewer that his wife, Senator Hillary Rodham, would have an announcement of her own the following day, and he encouraged everyone to listen. And so the next day, when a stage was set up with the Statue of Liberty positioned in the background, thousands of supporters crowded around to hear the words of New York's junior senator. They all knew what the announcement entailed.
Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton announcing her 2004 presidential campaign in New York; September 8, 2003.
The collective feeling of those assembled was one of angst. Signs with the candidate's first name printed across the front were waved fervently and the anticipation mounted as each minute passed. At 12:03 in the afternoon, Hillary Clinton walked onto the stage alone after an introduction from Senator Chuck Schumer of New York. The applause and cheering was deafening - drowning out the speakers which were blaring "New York, New York." The soon-to-be candidate smiled and waved to the adoring crowd surrounding her. "Thank you," she repeated over and over until the crowd hushed. After one last expression of thanks, she dove in to what would become an historic speech. "My fellow Americans," she began, "I am here before all of you today to begin a national conversation - one that I feel is long overdue." For the next several minutes, Hillary Rodham Clinton addressed the issues facing America as she saw them: a crumbling international reputation, a threatened middle class, and a broken health care system. She said that the only way to solve these issues was to talk about them before working together to solve them. President Bush, she argued, was simply unconcerned with what he deemed to be trivial matters. "That's wrong!" she exclaimed to the enjoyment of the audience.
She spoke at length about the need to reform America's health care system. "Only a new president can renew the promise of America -- the idea that if you work hard you can count on the health care, education, and retirement security that you need to raise your family," Hillary remarked before continuing, "These are the basic values of America that are under attack from this administration every day." The audience was enjoying every aspect of it. And then the New York Senator took a deep breath and uttered the next sentence, "And that's why I've decided that I am going to run for President of the United States!" The applause continued for more than two-and-a-half minutes. And when it finally died down, she leaned into the microphone and asked, "Are you with me?" The cheers rose, the signs waved, and a chant of "YES WE ARE!" rang out, spreading from the three year old girl atop her father's shoulders to the elderly senior citizen in the front row confined to a wheelchair. Hillary proceeded to thank the audience as they died down. She encouraged them to join her effort as she went from state to state, and then she told them she must be off to Iowa and New Hampshire. As she waved farewell, "Stars and Stripes Forever" bellowed from the loudspeaker as President Clinton and Chelsea walked on stage to join the newest presidential contender. The applause only grew.
Senator Clinton and her colleague Tom Harkin of Iowa campaigning together in Harkin's home state; November 18, 2003.
Hillary's campaign worked quickly to gather the momentum needed to take on the entrenched field of competitors. After her New York announcement, the candidate travelled to Iowa where she began meeting with local Democratic party officials and everyday voters. She toured farms, talked to teachers, and spoke at town hall events. She was uncomfortable with one-on-one interactions, it was really more of a knack for her husband, and President Clinton was on the trail, too. He was giving big speeches and stopping at diners, and in the car rides to and from events he was calling Democratic officials to ask for their support of his wife's campaign. The path to victory, the Clintons knew, included Iowa. It was Hillary's first test and she needed to do well, and the key to Iowa lied with Senator Tom Harkin - an opponent of Bill's in the 1992 Democratic Primaries. Early on in Iowa, Hillary adopted some of Harkin's messages from the 1992 campaign, alleging that President Bush was out of touch with middle and working class Americans. And President Clinton was a frequent name on Harkin's call sheet. The two had an amicable relationship while Clinton served in the White House, and the former president felt he could get Harkin on Hillary's side.
Unfortunately for Hillary, Senator Harkin was unsure of who he would support. He told the Senator he was greatly concerned about a variety of issues, and that he would have to weigh heavily his decision of who to endorse. After weeks of badgering, Senator Harkin agreed to meet with Hillary face-to-face. In the meeting, Hillary made clear her top priority as president would be to reform America's health care system. Not only did she want Senator Harkin to be a part of the plan's drafting, she wanted him to write the section on Medicaid. It was an offer Harkin was simply unable to refuse. On Halloween, Senator Harkin announced he was endorsing Hillary Rodham Clinton to be the 44th President of the United States. The state was shocked, Howard Dean, who had been expecting Harkin's endorsement, was stunned, and Hillary's numbers took a sharp turn for the better. She went from trailing Gephardt by six points and Dean by two to leading the pack. Harkin's endorsement coincided with a strategically-placed ad campaign that hit Iowa like a tsunami. Hillary Clinton was truly in the running.
Though some had worried she'd be unable to mount a campaign, the New York Senator became the race's front runner in November as the Democratic primary voters began to really pay attention. But with this new role at the front of the pack came a price: a target painted directly on her back. When the excitement of the Harkin endorsement and the Iowa surge began to die down, Senators Kerry and John Edwards of North Carolina joined Governor Dean in a mutual effort to bring down Hillary Clinton's campaign. There was no question that the Democrats were preparing to nominate her, but no one else in the field was willing to let her win without a fight.
With No Clear Victor
President Bush's reaction to Hillary Clinton's entrance was one of relief. His chief strategist, Karl Rove, assured the president that there was no way the nation would abandon his presidency for Mrs. Clinton. When Vice President Dick Cheney proffered his retirement, President Bush chose to ignore it - giving Cheney the chance to once again see his name at the bottom of the ticket. The Bush Campaign was complacent with the notion that Hillary would be the nominee and that they would sail to victory in November of 2004. They should not have been so sure of either notion. After Harkin's endorsement and her subsequent surge in the polls, Hillary Clinton became the center of a barrage of attacks against her and her campaign. She was the front runner and with that role came the unfortunate consequence of wearing a target on her back.
In the final debate before the Iowa Caucuses, Howard Dean accused Clinton of being politically ambitious, criticizing her New York race as nothing more than an attempt to pad her resume, and hitting her for breaking her pledge to serve a full six years in the Senate representing New York. Kerry seconded Dean's attack, accusing Clinton of failing to amass a record before trying to seek the White House. Hillary fired back, citing her experience as First Lady and saying she was willing to fight for a cause she believed in despite the fact it was politically unpopular. "My desire to see health care reform for every person in this nation was something that outweighed the negative political effects, and I fought an unpopular battle to pass reform," Hillary told voters. Dean fired back, pointing to the disaster that was HillaryCare. "And how'd that work out, Senator?" he deadpanned. Hillary took none too kindly to the remark, reminding voters it was proof she cared about doing what was right, not what was politically convenient. Dean said he could promise even more effective health care reform at "less of a cost." Kerry hit Hillary for a lack of foreign policy experience while invoking his own service in Vietnam. The New York Senator hit Kerry for his "wishy-washy" position on Iraq, saying the country had no idea where he stood on the issue. This line of attack put Hillary in an uncomfortable position where she was forced to confront the matter directly. When pressed, the Senator said she would not have voted for the war if she knew what she did now, and that she would do all she could to bring the troops home in as safe a manner as possible as soon as possible. It was a response that put her to the right of Dean but to the left of Kerry.
After the final Iowa debate, Hillary's numbers took a hit, and she became tied in the polls with Gephardt. Dean trailed them both but not by much. In the final days before the caucuses, the Clinton Campaign was in full force to ensure victory. Bill and Hillary criss-crossed Iowa's 99 counties with the hope of swaying as many undecided voters as possible, and Senator Harkin helped by supplying the campaign with the names of volunteers for past Senate campaigns. It was an all-out sprint to the caucuses, and there was little disagreement about how important they were to the future of Hillary's campaign. Her numbers in New Hampshire had recently fallen, putting her even farther behind Senator Kerry in the polls there. If she were to lose Iowa and New Hampshire, it would be devastating and could potentially end her entire campaign.
Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton declaring victory in the 2004 Iowa Democratic Caucuses; January 19, 2004.
The numbers went back-and-forth all evening, but in the end Hillary Clinton emerged the winner in the 2004 Iowa Democratic Caucuses. There were 3,098 votes cast. Hillary Clinton won 1,009 of them (32.6%), Dick Gephardt won 911 (29.4%), Howard Dean won 794 (25.6%), and John Kerry won 214 votes (6.9%). John Edwards finished fifth. For Hillary Clinton and her supporters, it was an emotional evening. For John Kerry, it was a disappointing blow that hurt his chances even in New Hampshire. As for Gephardt and Dean - well, they'd live to fight another day. On the night of January 19, 2004, however, all attention was given to Hillary Rodham Clinton as she became the first woman to win a presidential contest - and it was the first time that she referenced her gender in the course of the campaign. "Did you hear that, Iowa?!" she asked with Senator Harkin off to the side of the stage with Bill and Chelsea. "It was a the sound of a crack - a crack breaking its way into that highest hardest glass ceiling," she said to the fervent applause of the audience around her. She thanked Iowa for their support and their confidence, and promised to take the race to New Hampshire, where she was certain she could win. "We are going to win because Americans across this country are ready for a president who will renew the promise of our country!" With that, the race to New Hampshire was on.
In the Granite State, the race was always Senator Kerry's to lose. He was, in a sense, the favorite son. He was from neighboring Massachusetts and he was well-known to the New Hampshire media markets. The people of New Hampshire had met him many an occasion throughout the course of the campaign, and they liked Kerry. He was a little stiff, sure, but he had a solid record of experience and service. He appealed to them. But the Iowa numbers were a major flub for Kerry who was forced to prove he was truly an electable candidate. Kerry's opportunity came when the candidates gathered at Saint Anselm College in New Hampshire for their final debate. The field had thinned after Iowa. Carol Moseley Braun withdrew, endorsing Hillary Clinton. The remaining candidates descended on Manchester to impress the audience, and one of them was destined to stand out among the rest: the statesman-looking Massachusetts Senator. Kerry kept a calm demeanor and talked "like a president," according to one participant in a focus group after the debate. Dean latched on to Clinton, hitting her for her failed health care plan and accusing her of being a "bandwagon progressive." Gephardt attacked Dean, sure that doing so was his ticket to victory. Clinton was on defense the entire evening, holding off attacks from all sides. Second tier candidates, like Edwards and Senator Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, received little air time. The entire debate was a victory for Kerry who cooly answered each question and was overlooked by his competitors given his near demise in Iowa. The victory in the debate translated to a victory in the New Hampshire primary, which Kerry won with 34.2% of the vote. Hillary Clinton got second with 28.8%, followed by Howard Dean with 26.4%. The New Hampshire victory reignited the Kerry campaign and raised serious questions about Dean's ability to stay in the race.
Senator John Kerry raising his arms in victory after winning the 2004 New Hampshire Democratic Primary; January 27, 2004.
There was a frantic fight for votes after New Hampshire. With Kerry now decidedly back in the race, the attention turned to South Carolina - the next big contest. There, Senator John Edwards held a slim lead over Senator Clinton and Congressman Gephardt. However, Gephardt's campaign was failing quickly. Money was dried up and he finished behind retired General Wesley Clark in the New Hampshire primary - nearly in last place. Despite his strong performance in Iowa, Gephardt's campaign was in clear trouble. The lead up to South Carolina was an ad war. Clinton's campaign had the most money, and she hit the state hard with ads. Kerry, too, sent ads across the airwaves in South Carolina thanks to his own newfound cash due to his New Hampshire upset. A few days after New Hampshire, polls showed Clinton with a lead in South Carolina, followed in second by Edwards, and Kerry in third. Gephardt had fallen to fourth after his New Hampshire debacle. In hopes of earning a spot on a future ticket or in the cabinet, the Missouri Congressman withdrew from the race without endorsing another candidate. Analysts would later contribute his downfall to his intensely negative campaign in New Hampshire, leading to a loss of support that trickled into other states. Howard Dean was about to suffer from a similar problem.
The fight for South Carolina continued until the day voters went to the polls. Former President Clinton tried to reconnect with the African-American communities that had so loved him while he was president, and it was Hillary's best chance at winning the primary there. Still, Senator Edwards had the home court advantage, being from neighboring North Carolina, and it looked as though a combination of his populist message, youthful charisma, and shared background would lead to a victory in the Palmetto State. Indeed, Edwards won with 34.7% of the vote. Hillary followed with 30.1%. Kerry finished third with 24.6%. Al Sharpton won 6.2%, finishing fourth. The first three contests had all finished with three distinct winners, and with Dean's disappointing placements across the board, the Vermont Governor announced his exit from the campaign the night of the South Carolina primary, refusing to endorse any of his competitors. Bitter, Dean returned to Vermont. The rest of the candidates prepared for a round of primaries that would take them across the country as the race for the Democratic nomination intensified.
Going forward, Hillary would cling to her large financial advantage, allowing her to build up grassroots operations and advertising campaigns in the states she needed to win. Edwards and Kerry, though not short of money, did not have as much as the New York Senator, and so were forced to rely on face-to-face interactions with voters and the few remaining debates. Second tier candidates like Senator Lieberman and General Clark were hopeful that the more moderate states would be of assistance to them, but with no real victories in any of the first three states, voters feared they weren't electable. Of the current field, Hillary had broad appeal - she connected with women and blue collar workers, but Edwards could effectively cut into her appeal with working class voters. Kerry was favored among the middle class and upper classes (though Hillary reigned supreme with the Wall Street donors). It was a chaotic scramble to see who could win what demographic. In the end, however, polls and blocs would not decide the election. Instead, the Democratic nominee would be decided by the individual voters who participated in their caucuses and primaries, and the delegates who attended the 2004 Democratic National Convention.
There Can Be But One Nominee
For the three major contenders, February 3rd was a very important day. Arizona, Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, and South Carolina all had their contests. Edwards won the night by virtue of his victory in South Carolina, but Hillary came out on top in Arizona, New Mexico, and North Dakota, while Kerry took Delaware. Edwards won in Missouri, North Dakota, and Oklahoma, in addition to his win in South Carolina. The nomination was very much anyone's for the taking. The next largest fight was between Senators Clinton and Kerry, to be held just four days later in Michigan. Here, Clinton's blue collar support would be pivotal to victory while Kerry worked hard to combat the former First Lady's financial advantage. On February 7th, Clinton came out on top in a strong victory. Kerry finished second with Edwards in third. That same night, Kerry won the consolation prize by taking Washington. He won Maine the next day as well. Before Tennessee and Virginia could vote on February 10th, the field dwindled. Senator Joe Lieberman of Connecticut left without making an endorsement while retired General Wesley Clark also left, endorsing Hillary Clinton. The race was continuing to tighten.
In Virginia, Clinton relied on the support she had from Terry McAuliffe, a Democratic Party insider from Virginia. McAuliffe was almost guaranteed a position in the Clinton White House should Hillary make it there, and he was happy to support her. In Tennessee, the race was close among all three major candidates. Hillary fought hard to bring her message to rural voters, promising to deliver on promises made to blue collar workers and talking-up her health care reform proposal. An endorsement from Congressman Harold Ford further helped the Clinton campaign. John Edwards, however, was making a similarly strong pitch with his populist message. Meanwhile, Kerry continued arguing he was the most qualified person for the job. When voters went to the polls, Hillary won in Virginia while Edwards took Tennessee. Inside the Clinton campaign, there was a hope that the nomination could be settled on Super Tuesday, but the Edwards and Kerry campaigns were simply concerned with making sure they could stay in past March 2nd. Both believed that if they could go one-on-one with Hillary, whoever made it through would win.
In the lead-up to Super Tuesday, Hillary did well with wins in Nevada, Hawaii, Idaho, and Utah. Kerry, however, was reinvigorated with an upset win in Wisconsin. The candidates argued various issues, including health care reform and Iraq as well as smaller issues, such as who they would appoint to the Supreme Court. Everything seemed to be a factor as March 2nd neared. Kerry focused on winning Connecticut, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Ohio, Rhode Island, and Vermont. He felt he could win all six of those and that would guarantee his position to move forward. Edwards was determined to win in Georgia, Maryland, Minnesota, and Ohio. Hillary stuck to winning New York as well as Connecticut, Georgia, Maryland, and Ohio. All three candidates invested heavily in California, but Hillary held a monetary advantage. Kerry's strategy, rooted largely in winning New England, was a sound one, and the Senator was able to win Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. All four were much-needed wins that helped his candidacy. Hillary took her home state of New York while also taking Maryland and Ohio. Edwards was forced to settle with Georgia and Minnesota. The biggest prize of all, California, went for Clinton. Kerry finished second. Super Tuesday provided a momentous shift for Hillary and essentially knocked Edwards out of the race.
Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton celebrating with her daughter, Chelsea, after several significant victories on Super Tuesday; March 2, 2004.
"Thank you! Thank you!" Hillary told a roaring crowd on the evening on March 2nd. "I cannot thank you enough for all of your support," she continued. There was no silence in the room as the thousands of supporters roared with approval. "Tonight, we are hearing the voices of people across America," she said before continuing, "After three years of a President who listens only to the special interests, you're ready for a President who brings your voice, your values, and your dreams to your White House." The signs bearing her name flapped in the air. Her speech marked a turning point in her presidential campaign, as she encouraged voters to go online and help the campaign bring its efforts to the remaining states and she talked openly about solutions to the problems the nation faced. She promised an end to the mindless campaigning and promised to live up to her end of the conversation she began by entering the race. "I want to keep this race centered on the issues that matter to you, because at the end of the day our victories tonight a giant leap in restoring your voices to the White House," she said. She thanked her supporters, promised to take the fight to Florida and Texas, and exited to the stage as confetti fell and the audience roared again.
Senator Kerry was deeply concerned with how he was going to stay in the race. He trailed Clinton in Florida and Texas and the two were closer than he'd like in Pennsylvania. With wins in California, New York, and Ohio, the race was effectively Hillary's for the taking - especially if Kerry couldn't win Florida and Texas. He was on his way to a rally in Florida when his campaign manager, Jim Jordan, received a phone call. When he hung up, he wore a grim look on his face. Senator John Edwards was withdrawing and endorsing Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination. It was over. Hillary had locked up the money long before and with Edwards the momentum would only continue in her direction. Kerry's best bet was to leave the campaign with integrity and hope he got appointed Secretary of State under Clinton's administration. He withdrew before voters in Florida and Texas went to the polls.
With the Democratic nomination belonging to Hillary Clinton, George Bush felt certain he was guaranteed another four years in the White House. Karl Rove set out to implement his strategy of making Hillary the most divisive nominee since Dukakis in 1988. "We need to paint her as an out-of-touch liberal who the media is quick to categorize as a raging bitch," Rove told the rest of the Bush campaign's inner circle. The Bush Campaign also started running ads attack Hillary as a flip-flopper on the issue of Iraq. "I'm just confused," Cheney told Bill O'Reilly, "because first she was for the war, and now she seems to be against it. Which Hillary are voters going to have if she wins? That's what I want to know." The Vice President held no punches on whether or not Hillary was strong enough to be Commander-in-Chief - an issue he repeatedly invoked. "And another thing, Bill, I don't think she can do the job. I don't know if she's strong enough to make the wartime decisions needed of a president in this new age." Hillary immediately responded, appearing the following morning on the TODAY Show to categorize Cheney's remarks as sexist. "What he's really saying, Katie, is whether or not a woman can do the job - this election isn't about whether I'm male or female, this election is about who has the better vision for our country," she fired back. Cheney denied his remarks were sexist, but he did refrain from future attacks of that ilk.
Senator Hillary Clinton campaigning for president in Orlando, Florida as the presumptive Democratic nominee; June 2, 2004.
For Hillary Clinton, the attacks were expected - she was the most divisive figure in modern American politics, Karl Rove was not needed to further that perception. Instead, the Senator spent her time meeting with voters and worrying about her most pressing decision: finding a running mate. Hillary needed someone with experience - preferably executive - who could dissipate concerns over her ability to do the job. There were several names up for consideration. Governors on the list included Mike Easley of North Carolina, Ed Rendell of Pennsylvania, Gary Locke of Washington, and Bill Richardson of New Mexico. For Senators, Clinton's campaign vetted Joe Biden of Delaware, John Edwards of North Carolina, Bob Graham of Florida, and John Kerry of Massachusetts. Also considered were retired General Wesley Clark of Arkansas and Congressman Dick Gephardt of Missouri. After a serious vetting process, the short list contained three names: Edwards, Graham, and Clark.
Edwards was a populist figure who had a stronger-than-expected showing in the 2004 primaries. He was a figure that Hillary respected, and someone she saw as a benefit once in the White House. Concerns on the staff arose about whether Edwards would make Clinton vulnerable to attack. She was already perceived as inexperienced when compared to an incumbent president, and Edwards was only just completing his first term in the Senate. By going with Edwards, Clinton was cementing Bush's argument of inexperience. Bob Graham did not have the same problem. He served as Governor of Florida for eight years and was finishing his second term representing the state in the U.S. Senate. His immense experience had the added bonus of a politically-important general election state. He was, however, a stale performer on the trail, but former President Clinton reminded his wife that she carried enough charisma for the ticket. The final name on the list was Wesley Clark, the retired General who would add military bona fides to the Clinton campaign. Should he be picked, Clark would be a virtual unknown. His campaign for the nomination had fallen considerably short of expectations, and many Americans still had no idea who he was. Graham, too, suffered from that issue.
On an Independence Day rally in Jacksonville, Florida, Hillary Clinton announced that Bob Graham would be her running mate as the Democratic ticket prepared to take on George Bush in the November general election. In his speech, Graham emphasized his experience as well as his early opposition to the Iraq War and his pro-environment record. The choice helped to assuage concerns about where Hillary stood on the Iraq War, and the Democrats gathered even more excitement for their ticket, which they felt was unbeatable. In actuality, the 2004 election was looking as close as the 2000 election. President Bush led Senator Clinton by a single point at the commencement of July. With the conventions a month or so away, the Democrats were preparing for a big show that would gather support behind the Clinton/Graham ticket and propel them on the course to success for the remainder of the summer and the fall campaign. Republicans were sure that Bush's lead would grow after the Republicans reminded Americans of their strong national security platform at their convention, being held in New York City - a not-so-subtle reminder of how far the nation had come in the (nearly) three short years since 9/11. The race was on.
