The Black Death and the Devestation of the World

[Darkest]

Someday I plan to begin a project in the AltHist Writer's Forum and show you guys what I am worth. I might just jump onto the Multiverse bandwagon, only with permanent gates and planar lanes, drawing from the ancient Alterverse idea (if any of you know what I am talking about).

One 'plane' / 'parallel universe' I intend to show off will be a primitive one, where the Africans and American Indians get to show off their mettle. How is this accomplished? The Black Death, of course.

So, let us say that the disease is suddenly 75% fatal. It also strikes Asia just as hard as Europe. That isn't too far-fetched, is it?

Any ideas before I go out to research the topic?

[Burton K Wheeler]

My Roman Republic timeline was originally developed with the same intent, putting the worlds' regions on a more equal footing. The Republic succeeds in uniting most of Europe, but this increased interconnectedness makes Europe even more vulnerable to the double whammy of Mongol Hordes and Black Death.
Africa is given a push by the expansion of independent Carthaginians and Graeco-Egyptians down its respective coasts, as the Republic puts off its annexation of these states but blocks them from expanding in the Mediterranean.
North America receives wheat, iron, livestock, and plague resistance slowly, through a Viking settlement in Vinland (the biggest AH stereotype of them all) and neo-Carthaginian and West African colonies in the Caribbean.
When Europe and China recover from the plagues and Mongols, the Americas and Africa will not be such easy targets for expansion.

[Darkest]

How much did Asia really suffer from the Black Death? I cannot find good information on the subject. Anyone?

[Martel]

Originally Posted by Darkest90

How much did Asia really suffer from the Black Death? I cannot find good information on the subject. Anyone?

Asia got hit pretty hard, although the Plague spread somewhat slower (mostly overland). Records are a little sketchier so casaulty figures are unclear. However at least one historian attributed the fall of the Yuan dynasty to the Plague (it's at least a big coincidence). Also the Ottomans began their rise to power in the wake of the Plague. So its social impact was pretty big.
Here are two sites:
http://uhavax.hartford.edu/bugl/histepi.htm#plague
http://www.american.edu/TED/bubonic.htm

[Umbral]

I thought it was 75% fatal in europe? Don't have the time to look it up but...

[Max Sinister]

Nah, that's way too much. 30 to 40 % is more likely (in some areas, up to 70 %, though). China suffered similarly - one third of 75 million people died.

[Darkest]

Research
In most places in Europe, the plague claimed 30% to 50% of the population. Some cities and areas were able to enforce quarantine successfully. More than likely, they never lasted. Many isolated areas in Eastern Europe were untouched by the plague.

In Asia, the plague claimed nearly 90% of the populace in the Hubei province, killing five million people. Outside of the province, however, there was no huge calamity. Later, in the 1350s, a much more widescale epidemic occurred in the Chinese/Mongolian Empire, which claimed more than 65% of the total population.

In the Middle East, the effects were much more mild. Though some cities like Damascus were hit hard, the majority of the Middle Eastern population escaped unscathed. The disease killed less than 30% of the population in many cases.

This is information I have gathered about casualty rates from a small number of sources. Hopefully it is useful. BTW, thank you for those sites, Martel.

[Darkest]

How do I go about writing a timeline for this? How did Kim Stanley Robinson do it?

Hrm...

Asia
The Black Death destroys the Hubei Province in 1334, killing nearly six million, and leaving the total population of that province at around 50,000 stragglers. Casualties are at 99%.

However, the second wave hits at around 1344, ten years later. This is especially contagious, and works to level the total Chinese population down to 10% by the time it finishes, in 1346.

Middle East
The Middle East remained more unscathed than usual, but still suffered more in OTL. By the time the plague had run its course in 1349, 65% of the population would have been claimed by the Black Death. Palestine and Syria are hit much harder than the others, and Damascus is nearly emptied of its native populace.

Europe
This is a much more complex scenario, and I can expand on this area much more than others, due to the greater amount of information on it. I am going to go with a 90% casualty rate, however, and more areas are going to be infected. I really want to toss civilization into the toilet.

The New World, the Pacific, India, and Africa
What happens here? This will take a longer time to play out. India might be hit hard as well, I need to do more research about that area.

[Keenir]

Originally Posted by Darkest90

One 'plane' / 'parallel universe' I intend to show off will be a primitive one, where the Africans and American Indians get to show off their mettle. How is this accomplished? The Black Death, of course.

So, let us say that the disease is suddenly 75% fatal. It also strikes Asia just as hard as Europe. That isn't too far-fetched, is it?

Any ideas before I go out to research the topic?

Then it'll also hit Africa hard. During the middle ages, there were trade routes from northwestern Africa down to Timbuctu.

Also, and you might use this for butterflies, people from all over the Islamic world go on hajj (jourey to Mecca) at least once in their life...whether they live in Indonesia or Central Asia or southern Africa.

best of luck in your works, goodsir.

[Darkest]

Well, the Black Death is mainly carried by fleas (you can catch it from coming into contact with another, of course, but it is the fleas that break quarantines and travel long distances).

Fleas are carried by mammals, usually rats. Rats aren't likely to thrive in the deserts of northern Africa or the tropical regions of middle Africa. Its the same with Indonesia.

In all my research, I have not seen any reference to places outside of Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. Plus, I kinda wanted to see these other continents have a better chance at 'doing stuff'.

[NapoleonXIV]

AFAIK the diseases of Europe never really got to lower Africa. The lower Africans were much more resistant to disease than the Amerinds and had diseases of their own, which kept Europeans out until the 19thc. That may be another reason why it was so mild in the Middle East in OTL, though I think that more sanitary cities may have helped here.

How about India, and Japan?

[Darkest]

I've been looking into India. From quite a few sources, it doesn't look like there is anything mentioned about the Black Death in those areas at that time, or even serious diseases. I want to make the Black Death more devastating, not increase its range, so I guess India is off the hook.

As for Japan... *begins another query*

[Martel]

Originally Posted by Darkest90

Well, the Black Death is mainly carried by fleas (you can catch it from coming into contact with another, of course, but it is the fleas that break quarantines and travel long distances).

Fleas are carried by mammals, usually rats. Rats aren't likely to thrive in the deserts of northern Africa or the tropical regions of middle Africa. Its the same with Indonesia.

In all my research, I have not seen any reference to places outside of Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. Plus, I kinda wanted to see these other continents have a better chance at 'doing stuff'.

Desert slows the plague's spread, but it isn't an insurmountable obstacle. The Silk Road crossed the Gobi and the Taklimakan Desert. The agents tended to be fleas in packing material, on pack animals, and on people. Once at a new location, the fleas join the rat population. As a result, you have less of a reservoir hitting a city all at once, and plenty of infected caravans die in the desert before reaching their destination. Hence the slower rate. By contrast the distance from Mongolia to Kaffa is about the same as from Kaffa to Greenland. The former took more than 20 years. The latter less than five.