Mittelmächte Siegreich

Mittelmächte Siegreich​

a WWI TL​

General Aleksei Alekseevich Brusilov wondered if he had finally finally reached his breaking point. In all his correspondences with his wife, he had always expressed his hope, his certainty, that God would protect Mother Russia and that his country would prevail against the invaders. In the many months since the war broke out, he had learned just how difficult that would be, not least of which was the shocking levels of nepotism and incompetence in the military leadership. (When he was promoted to command of the Southwest forces, he had initially thought it was due to his merit on the field; only later did he learn it was because he had socialized with an important officer shortly before.) But still he had faith, and with his new command, he expected to have freedom of action to adopt new tactics and strategies that he believed could win crush Austro-Hungary and win Russia and her allies the war.

And then he received the memo. The glorious Tsar, it seemed, was ordering his general to adopt the use of long range artillery against enemy forces; this would completely unravel his plans to surprise them by getting as close as possible before attacking. Brusilov tried to calm himself; he knew his tactical ideas were unprecedented, yes, but clearly so was the war itself. Moreover, his planned offensive had already been discussed with and approved by the Tsar; why was the monarch micromanging now? He could already guess, though his suspicions would not be confirmed until months later: General Chief of Staff Mikhail Alekseyev and General Alexei Evert. No doubt the more established commanders (who had opposed going on the offensive in the first place) had convinced Nicholas that only traditional artillery could hope in making a breakthrough; and his Imperial Majesty, not being remotely familiar with the art of war, deferred to his judgement.

Brusilov was calm now. His considerations of directly disobeying his Emperor's instructions were now pushed from his mind; if His Majesty wished him to drive back the Hapsburg army using long range artillery, that is what he would do. He would do his duty, the Tsar would do his, and God would protect Mother Russia and banish the invaders; he had faith.

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(taken from Fall of the Russian Empire by Orlando Figes)

The failure of the June offense sealed the Tsardom's fate. In ascending order of importance: first, the hopes of relieving the Austrian offensive near Asiago and the German offensive on Verdun were put off yet again (by the time the British managed to put sufficient pressure on Germany with the costly Battle of the Somme, it was already too late the fortresses above the city had fallen, dooming French forces to a costly campaign to relieve it). Second, hopes for bringing Romania into the war on the side of the Entente were dashed, and this time they would not rise again. Thirdly, it furhter demoralized Russian troops, where desertion and mutinies only became more common. This demoralization also spread to forces on the homefront, including the cossack troops in Petrograd, a detail which would prove crucial in a matter of months. And fourth, and most importantly, it seemed confirm whispers that now became a common knowledge conspiracy theory: that the “German” Tsarina and Rasputin were sabotaging the Russian war effort...

“The Romanov dynasty” one future historian wrote “was now sitting atop a pile of unstable artillery and drenched in fuel. It would take only the tiniest spark to set them ablaze and reduce the monarchy to ash.” That spark came on October 28, 1916...

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(taken from Willy: The Reign of Kaiser Wilhelm II by Edmund Morris)

Talk of replacing Falkenhayn came again around the time of the Crown Prince's funeral -- though none dared wonder too loudly, much less in public print, there was talk of whether the Kaiser shared his Chief of Staff's estimation of Verdun as a success. True, the average German civilian didn't know that, in fact, the operational objectives of the offensive in France were actually quite modest, meant to bleed France into submission; and, it could not be denied, France had been made to pay dearly for their fortress city, nearly twice as many as Germany did to make them pay it. But they had not lost a prince; and anyway, French political leadership had proven more resilient than German leaders had estimated, so no western armistace was forthcoming, at least for the moment.

What saved Falkenhayn were developments in the east, just before the great battles in the west began winding down...

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So here it is -- my first attempt at a TL in over a year. Like my attempts in the past, I go into this not sure how far I will get; if, if I manage to make it to 1920, I'd likely consider that a good cut off point for the thread, and maybe, maybe doing sequel threads down the road. But I wouldn't bet on even making it that far.

That said, I've been on this WWI kick now for awhile, so I thought I'd try to build something out of it. I do have general ideas of where I want this to go, though -- the discussions on the board have been really helpful in clarifying my thoughts, so much thanks to everyone who gave feedback.

OK then, let's see where this goes.
 
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I wonder how this will affect other militaries adopting infiltration tactics?

Strong start to the TL, excited to see how political developments go in Russia with the revolution starting earlier. I wonder if V.I. is going to be paying a visit ;)
 
I wonder how this will affect other militaries adopting infiltration tactics?

Strong start to the TL, excited to see how political developments go in Russia with the revolution starting earlier. I wonder if V.I. is going to be paying a visit ;)

On the first part, it kind of depends on how long they have doesn't it? On the second, I have a sense of the revolution's early phases and subsequent war policies, but I actually would appreciate suggestions once I cover that. On Lenin, I wouldn't count on him getting any preferential transportation. ;)
 
You really need to mention Gen. Alexeyev somewhere in the first section. Yeah the Tsar had assumed personal command of the army but he was leaving nearly all of the important decisions to Alexeyev his chief of staff. So the real POD is Alexeyev decided Brusilov's tactics are unsound though maybe the Tsar puts his royal seal on it.

Going forward you will need to address Conrad's Trentino offensive and Romania.
 
OK, time for Part 2:
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(taken from the memoirs of Maurice Paléologue, French ambassador to Russia; entry for October 31, 1916)

For several days now all the factories in Petrograd have been on strike. The workmen left the shops without giving any reason, and simply on an order issued by some mysterious committee. The violence is still ongoing, and I write this entry uncertain when and if order will be restored...

I was told that two French industrials, Sicaut and Beaupied, were asking to see me. They are representatives of the "Louis Renault " motor-car house and in charge of a large factory in the Viborg quarter.

I received them at once. They said to me

"Monsieur l'Ambassadeur, you know we've never had anything but praise for our workpeople, because they've never had anything but praise for us. So they've refused to join in the general strike. While work was in full swing this afternoon, a party of strikers from the Baranovsky works besieged our establishment, shouting: 'Down with the French! No more war!' Our engineers and foremen wanted to parley with them. They were received with stones and revolver shots. One French engineer and three French foremen were seriously wounded. The police had meanwhile arrived and soon realized that they could not cope with the situation. A squad of gendarmes then succeeded in forcing a way through the crowd, and went to fetch two infantry regiments which are in barracks quite near. The two regiments appeared a few minutes later, but instead of raising the siege of our factory they fired on the police."

"On the police!"

"Yes, Monsieur l'Ambassadeur; you can see the bullet marks on our walls. A number of gorodovoï and gendarmes were killed. A stand-up fight followed. At length we heard the gallop of the Cossacks -- but when they arrived at the situation, their commander took one look, and ordered a retreat.”

I was stunned speechless at this.

“We barely escaped with our lives, Monsieur.”

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(taken from Fall of the Russian Empire by Orlando Figes)

There were similar incidents across the city. Strikers would protest, civilians joining them; sometimes they became violent, and the police were sent in, other times the police were sent in, and they became violent; in any case, soldiers would be sent in to disperse support the police, only to join the crowds; and failsafes, like the cossacks, were too demoralized to do anything about it. Petrograd was being taken over by striking workers, mutinious regiments, and protesters of every class and profession. Some chanted for peace; others for wages; others for bread; and it wasn't unheard of for crowds with different messages to clash violently with each other. But soon one message could be clearly heard from all streets of the capital: Down with the Tsar!

The Tsar received a telegram from the Chairman of the Duma, Mikhail Rodzianko, at his base in Stavka, warning him of the dire situation:The situation is serious. The capital is in a state of anarchy. The Government is paralyzed. Transport service and the supply of food and fuel have become completely disrupted... There must be no delay. Any procrastination is tantamount to death.The Tsar's initial response was one of denial and irritation: "again, this fat Rodzianko has written me lots of nonsense, to which I shall not even deign to reply."...

Finally, after days of advisors pleading, Nicholas II, Emperor and Autocrat of All the Russias, abdicated in favor of his brother, Grand Duke Michael Alexandrovih. Michael would decline the title, stating that he would only accept the throne "if and when our great people, having elected by universal suffrage a Constituent Assembly to determine the form of government and lay down the fundamental law of the new Russian State, invest me with such power", to the cheers and praise of Duma members. Events would intercede to prevent this from coming about, effectively bringing the Romanov Dynasty and the Russian Monarchy to a final end.

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OOC: Ok, so most of the first entry, and basis for my timing here, is taken from this real life event. (Hat tip to Mikestone8 for the find :D) The quotes and much of the events of the second entry are, of course, taken from OTL's February Revolution.
 
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I wonder how this will affect other militaries adopting infiltration tactics?

Strong start to the TL, excited to see how political developments go in Russia with the revolution starting earlier. I wonder if V.I. is going to be paying a visit ;)

On the first part, it kind of depends on how long they have doesn't it? On the second, I have a sense of the revolution's early phases and subsequent war policies, but I actually would appreciate suggestions once I cover that. On Lenin, I wouldn't count on him getting any preferential transportation. ;)

You really need to mention Gen. Alexeyev somewhere in the first section. Yeah the Tsar had assumed personal command of the army but he was leaving nearly all of the important decisions to Alexeyev his chief of staff. So the real POD is Alexeyev decided Brusilov's tactics are unsound though maybe the Tsar puts his royal seal on it.

I'll make the change.

Going forward you will need to address Conrad's Trentino offensive and Romania.

Good catch on Trentino; will try to research and visit that before getting too far ahead.

You need to put a date on the second entry.

I have a date for the journal entry (October 31, 1916); my thoughts on the second are that the abdication comes in a matter of days after the chaos begins, so early November.
 
Loose end

My thoughts is that the turmoil could last a fortnight before the Tsar abdicates. The food shortages at this point should not be quite as bad as happened OTL

But if the abdication occurs in Nov then Rasputin is still alive as per OTL. You might want to give some thought to his fate.
 

abc123

Banned
So, if I get this correctly, because of failure of OTL Brusilov Offensive ( ITTL Brusilov's Blunder? ) there's revolution in Russia in October/November 1916?
 
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Going forward you will need to address Conrad's Trentino offensive and Romania.

OK, I've made a modest change to the first post, and I know that I'll have to get into somewhat more detail in my next one. Does anyone have thoughts on how this battle would go without relief from Brusilov? Depending on the significance of the Italian defeat, I can see it tying into future plans for the war.

But if the abdication occurs in Nov then Rasputin is still alive as per OTL. You might want to give some thought to his fate.

Already have ;)

So, if I get this correctly, because of failure of OTL Brusilov Offensive ( ITTL Brusilov's Blunder? ) there's revolution in Russia in October/November 1916?

Starts in October, ends in November, yes; October 28 to, let's say November 11 (or November 1 OS, meaning this will be known in Russian history as the "October Revolution" :D)
 
Russia in 1916 is a powder keg waiting to explode. I see three serious possibilities:

1) Rasputin the Martyr. He is despised by almost every Russian not tied to the Empress, but if his OTL questionable death can be tied to a British Webley revolver (especially a British agent) it may let Russia exit the war on the basis that their "Allies" are manipulating internal politics for their own ends

2) Austrian Army success. If the Brusilov offensive fails, Austria has a green light for the Battle of Asiago. In OTL the Austrians came very close to taking Vicenza in northern Italy and encircling an entire Italian army, with Cadorna not thinking the offensive possible. Its effectiveness in OTL was only stopped by the need to reposition troops to Gallicia, if the Austrians can breach the Italian lines and take Vicenza the only thing left between them and the Adriatic is Padua, the last rail link to Venice and the entire northeastern part of Italy. The Po River is close as well, this permits possible defeat of Italy in 1916/early 1917 on very favorable terms for the CPs

3) German breakthrough at Verdun. Falkenhayn digs his own grave as OTL by relying on French commanders to become so desperate for holding Verdun that they force a premature Allied offensive that he can take advantage of and counterattack. Brusilov's offensive forced troop redistributions in OTL that made this impossible to achieve, but if the timing is right and the Somme offensive does not do as well many possibilities arise. French mutiny is possible, a German successful counterattack is quite possible, and if Falkenhayn remains in place Germany might have a much better chance to win.

Two of these together, especially a strong number 3, might be enough to force the end of the war. Brusilov's offensive was key in keeping the West from being tested beyond its limits, the Germans at Verdun and Austrians at Asiago showed how far each side was willing to go and how close they were to breaking. An alternate peace treaty in early/mid 1917 is not likely to be quite as harsh but the Germans will force France into second-tier status while the Italians will keep Venice...for a price! Russia *might* remain a Tsarist monarchy but if so it becomes a German puppet minus Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia ("Baltic Union" and "Congress Poland") with the Ukraine likely becoming a German satellite. Austria Hungary will have won and might be able to dissolve peacefully or truly federate as a triple crown.
 
Without Brusilov, Asiago becomes more like Caporetto, a year later. Italy is knocked out of the war...

How long would you guess it takes for Italy to agree to an armistice after our PoD? Crucially, is it less or more than six months?


#2 for sure; I had different Rasputin plans than #1, and I see the Battles of Verdun and Somme going operationally well on the whole for Germany, but not as the knockout blow Falkenhayn was hoping for.
 
Looks very promising so far, just a question as regards the Russian internal political developments...

When Tsar Nicholas finally abdicates, would his brother really step down as regent? He was apparently well respected by everybody before the War (some courtiers expressed the wish in private that he was monarch in place of the incompetent "Nicky"). From what I have read, even during the War he and other more liberal members of the Family retained the good graces of their supporters. Without Lenin to fan the flames of class hatred, I believe the socialists and monarchists could have come to an arrangement that would have saved the Monarchy, albeit without much legislative power.
 
When Tsar Nicholas finally abdicates, would his brother really step down as regent? He was apparently well respected by everybody before the War (some courtiers expressed the wish in private that he was monarch in place of the incompetent "Nicky"). From what I have read, even during the War he and other more liberal members of the Family retained the good graces of their supporters. Without Lenin to fan the flames of class hatred, I believe the socialists and monarchists could have come to an arrangement that would have saved the Monarchy, albeit without much legislative power.

Now that you mention it, it seems I had misremembered the exact nature of Michael's "decline" of the throne; post is now edited to reflect OTL more.

That's going to depend on a lot of things. Do the Germand Austrian troops in Italy get diverted back to the Western and Eastern fronts? How many troops did England and France send to shore up the Italians?

Well they're not getting diverted to the Western Front, that I can say. As to the rest, I'm wide open to suggestions -- the effect our PoD would have on the Italian Front only seriously crossed my mind after I began the TL. :eek:
 
At the very least, France is going to need to send six divisions, and Britain five, same as OTL a year later, to stop an imminent collapse of Italy. Where do those troops come from? Some part on the Western Front is going to be missing nearly four corps.

OK, so without endangering the Western Front, the collapse or withdrawal of Italy is "imminent"; so we're talking an armistice in less than a month?
 
Or they take some from the colonial and Ottoman fronts. Not sure if it would be enough and what other butterflies it would hatch.

But yes the Italians will likely be a hole in the Entente manpower and supply pool.
 
But yes the Italians will likely be a hole in the Entente manpower and supply pool.

Would anyone object to having the Austro-Hungarians take Vicenza a few days after our PoD, and Italy ask for an separate armistice that very month (June 1916)? Or is that moving too quickly?

Another important question -- what kind of terms do the Austrians ask for? I may have to do a little more research...
 
OK looked into AH war aims vis a vis Italy -- according to David Kennedy, they "wanted little except minor frontier changes", so I imagine the terms for the latter will be very generous (given the circumstances).

Without Russia's Brusilov offensive to pull the Austrian's back, if Italy doesn't get at least 11 divisions or so extremely fast to shore up the line, there is nothing to stop the CP from reaching Vicenza. If that happens, the whole Isonzo front is cut off from supply and outflanked. The CP will bag nearly the whole Italian army, without have to fight thru them and overrun them.

OK, so Italy will probably start sending out peace feelers within days of this, and given the above terms, they quickly agree to a separate peace sometime mid-June 1916. Sound good?
 
If that should happen then Italy is gone. The Entente would Imo be incapable to bring enough troops to the new front fast enough to keep Italy in. And that assumes they find the troops and supplies neccecery.

But that in turn opens a big bleeding wound in the "Artery of the Empire". With Italy gone the Med is more open for the A-H Navy. And even in OTL the U-Boots were murderous there.

With what are they gonne plug that hole? Because Otranto is out and the bases much further away.

Not only that but what of the im- and export market for Germany? Could the Rest-Entente block them or restrict them somehow? And what would be the "neutral" reactions ie. USA?
 
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