AHC/WI: Large Commonwealth Civilian Nuclear Program

Delta Force

Banned
For the purposes of this, the PoD can be anytime following the discovery of fission in 1938. That can include the Commonwealth developing nuclear weapons independently of the United States under Tube Alloys, a no/late World War II situation, or anything similar. It's more of an exploration of a larger Commonwealth nuclear program, making the program somewhat similar in scope to those of the Soviet Union and United States.

The United Kingdom, Australia, Canada, and South Africa all pioneered or had interest in nuclear technology. For example, the United Kingdom pioneered commercial nuclear power at Calder Hall, although the Magnox reactors were primarily build to produce plutonium for the nuclear program. Calder Hall and efforts in the Soviet Union led the United States to grow concerned about losing the nuclear energy race, as it was thought they would prove powerful for soft power initiatives in the third world. Also, later in the late 1950s British and French gas cooled reactors were considered to be the most advanced in the world, with many states in Western Europe and elsewhere considering ordering them. This ended with the 1958 EURATOM Agreement, which led to most of Western Europe adopting American pressurized light water reactors, including France. The United Kingdom held out to work on gas cooled reactors, including the advanced gas cooled reactor design, but eventually adopted pressurized light water technology. Gas cooled reactors are interesting in that they have the potential for greater efficiency relative to other designs, due to the use of the Brayton cycle. They may also be less expensive and require less advanced industry to construct (or at least less specialized industry), as they use reinforced concrete pressure vessels instead of steel ones. Reinforced concrete is actually safer than steel in some respects, as it is less likely to suffer catastrophic failure than concrete.

Canada is interesting for having many of the facilities used in the Manhattan Project. The vast uranium mines and hydropower facilities of Canada also supplied uranium and heavy water for the British and United States nuclear programs throughout the Cold War. Canada also developed the CANDU heavy water reactor, notable for being the only Western nuclear reactor to have seen widespread export that isn't from an American company. Interestingly, CANDU is based on a design that was first experimented with by the United States Atomic Energy Commission, only to later be developed by Canada.

Australia at one point was concerned about its neighbors falling to communism, and attempted to acquire a turnkey nuclear weapons force from the United Kingdom in the 1950s. It also has vast quantities of uranium and other fissile materials. South Africa is similar, but of course actually built a small nuclear weapons arsenal.

Among former colonies, India and Pakistan could be major markets for a Commonwealth design. They could even be popular outside of the former colonies as a more neutral option compared to buying from the Soviet Union or the United States.

Clearly, there was a sizable market for nuclear power in the Commonwealth, although diverse needs. There could also have been a large market if the Commonwealth was perceived as a more neutral option relative to purchasing from the Soviet Union or the United States. Could the Commonwealth have come together to develop their own standard for nuclear power technology, perhaps even securing the lucrative Western European market?

Also, for an even larger program, one likely requiring a much stronger post-World War II Commonwealth, what might parallels to Project Plowshare, Nuclear Explosions for the National Economy, NS Savannah, NERVA, and NEPA have looked like, if they had been pursued?
 

Riain

Banned
I once read that the Snowy Mountains Scheme was to provide the amount of water needed to cool a nuclear reactor that Australia was going to buy off the shelf from Britain. But Britain pulled out in 1958, I think because Britain got back into the nuclear bed with the US and I think EURATOM might have been another nail in the coffin, certainly it occurred at the same time.

Britain used Australian scientific manpower in their own nuclear weapons project, I think Britain needed something like 70,000 people to create their own bomb but needed 15,000 of those from the Dominions.
 
I believe India and Pakistan were markets for the CANDU reactor. CANDUs were built in both countries. I think the Canadians stopped exporting though when the Indians used them to build nukes. A bunch if India's current reactors are derived from CANDUs. Maybe if India doesn't use them to make nukes, or Canada doesn't care (may involve a Western aligned India), Canada can continue to export and build CANDU reactors in India
 

Delta Force

Banned
I believe India and Pakistan were markets for the CANDU reactor. CANDUs were built in both countries. I think the Canadians stopped exporting though when the Indians used them to build nukes. A bunch if India's current reactors are derived from CANDUs. Maybe if India doesn't use them to make nukes, or Canada doesn't care (may involve a Western aligned India), Canada can continue to export and build CANDU reactors in India

If I am remembering my readings on this correctly, the fissile material for the Indian test did not come from the safeguarded CANDU reactor, but from a Canadian research reactor which was not under safeguards. The Canadians were so furious at what India had done that they weren't on speaking terms with India at nuclear conferences and even in other contexts for several decades.
 
For the purposes of this, the PoD can be anytime following the discovery of fission in 1938.
Granted I'm certainly no expert, just been reading up about the early history recently, but even with a 1938 start don't you still have to wait until early 1939 for Perrin to come up with the concept and calculations for critical mass, and Szilard and Fermi to discover the whole neutron multiplication during fission angle, leading to Szilard roping in Einstein to write their eponymous letter to Roosevelt? Which reminds me I need to finally get around to Richard Rhode's The Making of the Atomic Bomb one of these days.
 

Delta Force

Banned
Granted I'm certainly no expert, just been reading up about the early history recently, but even with a 1938 start don't you still have to wait until early 1939 for Perrin to come up with the concept and calculations for critical mass, and Szilard and Fermi to discover the whole neutron multiplication during fission angle, leading to Szilard roping in Einstein to write their eponymous letter to Roosevelt? Which reminds me I need to finally get around to Richard Rhode's The Making of the Atomic Bomb one of these days.

It's a fairly large range, allowing for the possibility of slower development under more peacetime conditions, or following a less intense World War II.
 

Delta Force

Banned
Would it have been possible for British and Canadian reactors to have been built for commercial operators in the United States? The Advanced Gas Cooled Reactor was promoted as being superior to American designs and capable of generating power for less than coal due to its online refueling capabilites, although the capability has been used since the 1990s due to problems with vibration and stuck fuel rods. The CANDU design uses natural uranium, which could have been an attractive option in the late 1970s and possibly the early 1980s, when there were concerns about a shortage of enrichment capacity.
 

Riain

Banned
Dunno, I'm willing to hazard a guess that the US has import restrictions or tariffs on nuclear technology that would make it difficult. Perhaps the best bet would be good sales to the Commonwealth and Europe that are not scuttled by cooperation with the US and EURATOM. Even the MAGNOX are gas cooled and so offer some potential advantages if given a chance on the world market.
 

Delta Force

Banned
Dunno, I'm willing to hazard a guess that the US has import restrictions or tariffs on nuclear technology that would make it difficult. Perhaps the best bet would be good sales to the Commonwealth and Europe that are not scuttled by cooperation with the US and EURATOM. Even the MAGNOX are gas cooled and so offer some potential advantages if given a chance on the world market.

Magnox was designed primarily to produce nuclear materials for military purposes, with electricity being a useful byproduct of the process. Economics, efficiency, and safety levels were rather lacking, especially since Magnox is generation one 1950s technology. Generation two reactors with 1960s and 1970s technology are much better all around, with the Advanced Gas Cooled Reactor being one, and also a development on Magnox.
 

Riain

Banned
Australia was in the market for a reactor in the mid/late 50s and magnox is about the only one Britain had to offer at that time. Perhaps an interim agr could be developed to meet the requirement using magnox as the basis.
 

Delta Force

Banned
Australia was in the market for a reactor in the mid/late 50s and magnox is about the only one Britain had to offer at that time. Perhaps an interim agr could be developed to meet the requirement using magnox as the basis.

I think a Magnox reactor was part of the proposal for an Australian nuclear weapons program. The two historical customers for Magnox were Italy and Japan, although the DPRK built some of its own using designs presented by the British at an Atoms for Peace conference.
 
If you're interested in the UK's nuclear industry then I'd definitely recommend seeing if you can get a copy of C. N. Hill's, new-ish, book on the topic An Atomic Empire: A Technical History of the Rise and Fall of the British Atomic Energy Programme. I've only just started it myself but it certainly seems very good so far and if it's anything like his history of the British rocketry programme A Vertical Empire it'll definitely be worth it. I'll probably come back to the thread in a little bit since I've been considering some possibilities for alternate British nuclear programmes.

Off the top of my head however an Anglo-Canadian programme based around Chalk River is a possibility. As Riain mentioned Australia was interested early on as was India with an eye towards Thorium in the future, if handled properly this could grow into a decent Commonwealth co-ordinated research and production programme.
 

Delta Force

Banned
I'm most familar with the United States nuclear program, although I have read somewhat about the Commonwealth efforts during and after World War II, especially for the British program. The United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority is interesting is being quite akin to the United States Atomic Energy Commission between the 1946 and 1954 Atomic Energy Act. In other words, not only did it have the research, advocacy, and military roles, but it also was only entity allowed to own and operate nuclear power facilities.
 
The United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority is interesting is being quite akin to the United States Atomic Energy Commission between the 1946 and 1954 Atomic Energy Act. In other words, not only did it have the research, advocacy, and military roles, but it also was only entity allowed to own and operate nuclear power facilities.
I'd have to double check but IIRC they didn't actually operate the power stations, that fell to the government owned Central Electricity Generating Board (CEGB) or its predecessor organisations. Which is what led to some serious disagreements between it and the Atomic Energy Authority (AEA) as whilst the CEGB was mandated to try and operate in a quasi-market based manner by obtaining power supplies at the best prices - be it from coal, gas, nuclear or other sources - the AEA had no such pressures but was just as interested in research and development of new systems or maintaining the national nuclear programme as anything else. I haven't gotten around to the Advanced Gas-cooled Reactor parts but apparently the differences of opinion over them were rather sizeable.
 
I would bet that if you go this route that the Commonwealth program would start with the development of weapons, but I would imagine that outside of the UK only Canada and Australia would have both the desire, resources and capabilities to develop a nuclear weapons capability. India after its independence might want such a capability, but I would bet that India, particular after the bloody partition, would probably not really be wanted to be part of a Commonwealth program, and after apartheid becomes reality and South Africa bails on the Commonwealth in 1961 they land in the same boat. The development of the CANDU by Canada in the 1950s would also be a possibility for such a program, as the CANDU is a very good design even today, and while the AGR is more thermally efficient (though the ability of a CANDU to use natural uranium improves its efficiency), the Canadian design is idiotproof, unable to melt down even in a worst case scenario unless its fuel load is highly used up and contaminated.

A Commonwealth nuclear program would require the UK being able to retain its place as a major patron and partner to the other members of the Commonwealth, which was not the case after WWII. Unless Britain is economically able to advance itself after WWII to such a degree that both Australia and Canada don't turn to America for support after the war, the point ends up being a moot point as the program will be quickly swamped or co-opted by Eisenhower's Atoms for Peace programs.
 

Delta Force

Banned
I'd have to double check but IIRC they didn't actually operate the power stations, that fell to the government owned Central Electricity Generating Board (CEGB) or its predecessor organisations. Which is what led to some serious disagreements between it and the Atomic Energy Authority (AEA) as whilst the CEGB was mandated to try and operate in a quasi-market based manner by obtaining power supplies at the best prices - be it from coal, gas, nuclear or other sources - the AEA had no such pressures but was just as interested in research and development of new systems or maintaining the national nuclear programme as anything else. I haven't gotten around to the Advanced Gas-cooled Reactor parts but apparently the differences of opinion over them were rather sizeable.

I've only just started reading about the UK AEA. I'm not sure about the extent of the powers if had, but it makes even the Atomic Energy Commission and its allies in the Joint Committee on Atomic Energy look weak by comparison. That's remarkable seeing as the AEC and JCAE are considered some of the most powerful government entities in American history. The UK AEA seems to have routinely used the Official Secrets Act rather extensively. In fact, the study I read was only possible because the documents were finally declassified, and they were related to the siting and safety of civilian power facilities. The UK AEG also seems to have had rocky relations with an agency in charge of public lands that simply asked why a facility was being built in a sensitive area, and even the electric authority which didn't really know how the need or locations for nuclear plants was determined.

I would bet that if you go this route that the Commonwealth program would start with the development of weapons, but I would imagine that outside of the UK only Canada and Australia would have both the desire, resources and capabilities to develop a nuclear weapons capability. India after its independence might want such a capability, but I would bet that India, particular after the bloody partition, would probably not really be wanted to be part of a Commonwealth program, and after apartheid becomes reality and South Africa bails on the Commonwealth in 1961 they land in the same boat. The development of the CANDU by Canada in the 1950s would also be a possibility for such a program, as the CANDU is a very good design even today, and while the AGR is more thermally efficient (though the ability of a CANDU to use natural uranium improves its efficiency), the Canadian design is idiotproof, unable to melt down even in a worst case scenario unless its fuel load is highly used up and contaminated.

A Commonwealth nuclear program would require the UK being able to retain its place as a major patron and partner to the other members of the Commonwealth, which was not the case after WWII. Unless Britain is economically able to advance itself after WWII to such a degree that both Australia and Canada don't turn to America for support after the war, the point ends up being a moot point as the program will be quickly swamped or co-opted by Eisenhower's Atoms for Peace programs.

The interesting thing is that as a group, Canada, Australia, South Africa, and India control most of the world's uranium and thorium. The Commonwealth and the Soviet Union were the only two powers with the technology and materials to do a comprehensive nuclear program. The United States doesn't have as extensive uranium deposits. The British could have done their own version of Atoms for Peace had there been a greater commitment to the technology. Gas cooled reactors are not only less expensive than light water designs, but also more efficient and potentially capable of using natural uranium.
 

Delta Force

Banned
Does anyone know of some good resources for the Commonwealth nuclear programs, in terms of programs, politics, etc.? There are quite a few United States Atomic Energy Commission documents available, but I haven't been able to find anything for Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom, etc. in terms of civilian nuclear technologies. I've only been able to find things relating to the British nuclear weapons program.
 

Delta Force

Banned
What if the United Kingdom had decided to standardize the Magnox design, rather than only having a standard core that five firms designed power plants around? Also, what if the decision had been made to continue to develop Magnox rather than developing the Advanced Gas Cooled Reactor? Essentially, this would be similar to the French reactor type standardization of the 1970s.

Standardizing by power output would result in roughly the following reactor classes by construction start date:

1950: 060 megawatts electric
1956: 0120 megawatts electric
1957: 0240 megawatts electric
1963: 0480 megawatts electric
1965: 1200 megawatts electric
They would all use similar technologies in order to achieve learning as things went on. For example, the 480 megawatt series reactors would likely cease using mild steel in order to reduce corrosion from the carbon dioxide coolant and allow higher operating temperatures. The 1200 megawatt series reactors would have much improved safety equipment, or at least be retrofitted with them later on, as well as the older series reactors. Alternatively the British could simply stick with using multiple 480 megawatt series reactors at the same site. They seem to have adopted multi-unit construction early on, and a 480 megawatt plant is close in output to the average coal fired power station.

Later, the British could replace the lower output reactor classes with Vulcain type small modular boiling water reactors, as they would be easier to transport to sites in areas and assemble. They could also develop more advanced gas cooled reactors to do the same thing, akin to the United States Army Nuclear Power Program ML-1 closed cycle gas cooled reactor.

The main issue I can see is fuel cladding type. The Magnox reactor used magnesium due to its low neutron absorption (it also required reprocessing due to water interactions with magnesium in the medium term). However, AGR had to use steel to allow operation at higher temperatures, which then required using low enriched uranium. Could an alternative cladding, such as zirconium alloy, have been usable for both high and low temperature operation with natural uranium?
 
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