France Defeats Prussia/Germany

[rowmaster]

This is far from my Strong Point, in fact I know next to nothing of the Franco=Prussian/ Franco-German war of 1870-71. Excludeing the founding of the German Empire and the French Third Republic that is. Now Im wondering. What if the Prussians/Germans had been defeated by the French, Nappy the third stays incharge of France and Bismarks dream of a United Germany is blunted. So because of my Ignorence I have to ask

1) How do the French win this war?
and then
2) What are the effects of a French Victory?

[Max Sinister]

Some allies (A-H, Italy, Denmark) would help.

[rowmaster]

Originally Posted by Max Sinister

Some allies (A-H, Italy, Denmark) would help.

Both Jump in to get back at the Old Enemy?

[Max Sinister]

Yes, for example. Together they should be able to do that...

[rowmaster]

Originally Posted by Max Sinister

Yes, for example. Together they should be able to do that...

OK So A French, Austrian, and Daneish Alliance beats Prussia/Germany. What happens post war?

[Max Sinister]

At first, the spoils are divided, as usual. France gets the Rhineland and Luxembourg, Austria Silesia, Denmark Schleswig-Holstein, and of course the German Empire isn't founded. But Prussia's still strong, so it might seek revenge - with Britain and Russia as possible allies... WW1, only a question of time?

[rowmaster]

Originally Posted by Max Sinister

At first, the spoils are divided, as usual. France gets the Rhineland and Luxembourg, Austria Silesia, Denmark Schleswig-Holstein, and of course the German Empire isn't founded. But Prussia's still strong, so it might seek revenge - with Britain and Russia as possible allies... WW1, only a question of time?

Would Prussia lose the lands that were directly under there Control before the War? I could see the North German Confedereation being broken up. And your probably right WWI would be Inevitably. I wonder if it would be a World War though? Prussia probably wont be able to get colonies and the War would be a mostly European Conflict...

[MarkA]

If France had those allies Bismarck would choose another strategy to form the Empire and there would be no war. Or more likely Bismarck would lure them away from France.

[fhaessig]

Adopting the niel reform instead of rejecting it would go a long way to get France to win the war.
So would a cariage accident which would kill NIII, his wife and Bazaine ( or any of three, even ). Or even getting Napoleon III more sick than OTL and firing bazaine in a fit of anger.

Other possibilities
1) after gravelotte, Bazaine ( or someone else if bazaine is out of the picture, even for a day ) decide to attack instead of retreating. Scratch one whole german army.
2) MacMahon ( or again someone else ) is a bit more energetic this one time and goes more quickly to relieve Metz, before press reveal his project to the whole world ( and the prussian general staff ). Scratch two german armies.
3) Ducrot ( again or someone else ) attacks and shows some fortitude in the attack. The german army operating in Normandy is taken in the back.
4) Faidherbe continues arfter Bapaume and crush the army besieging Peronne ( OTL, he stopped at 16 km )
5) The armies in Metz don't capitulate ( Bazaine capitulated for political reasons, mainly )
6) Gametta names Rossel general. The french win Coulmiers/Orleans/artenay before the german troops freed by the capitulation of Metz came to the rescue
7) Gambetta accepts the offer of Keratry and the 80,000 men he had raised from brittany
8) France fight on and turns this in a war of attrition ( OTL, there were more german deads than french ones ). Union Sacree!


I'm working, on and off, on a TL which includes the lasts as a consequence the Pod; it goes to a return to the statu quo ante bellum ( nearly ) because the french make a couple mistakes also and have political reasons to stop the war ASAP. But it could have gone the other way.

[stevep]

Originally Posted by MarkA

If France had those allies Bismarck would choose another strategy to form the Empire and there would be no war. Or more likely Bismarck would lure them away from France.

True but what if they were allies of opportunity? Bismarck tried to make sure that Austria wasn't too hostile after its defeat in 1866 but if he had miscalculated, or possibly a sudden death changes who's in charge of Austria? Don't know enough about the period to know how likely it is. If Austria suddenly hits the Prussians in the rear, then Denmark also joins in.

The problems with those are that Bismarck had done a lot to win over German nationalists. This would mean that such action by Austria would anger the bulk of the German states and probably at least some in Austria itself. Especially since a French victory would probably means some German lands occupied by France. Ditto with the Danish intervention. Furthermore Italy would probably join in against Austria to prevent them winning and then seeking to regain the lands lost to Italy in the previous decade.

Steve

[arctic warrior]

Originally Posted by stevep

True but what if they were allies of opportunity? Bismarck tried to make sure that Austria wasn't too hostile after its defeat in 1866 but if he had miscalculated, or possibly a sudden death changes who's in charge of Austria? Don't know enough about the period to know how likely it is. If Austria suddenly hits the Prussians in the rear, then Denmark also joins in.

The problems with those are that Bismarck had done a lot to win over German nationalists. This would mean that such action by Austria would anger the bulk of the German states and probably at least some in Austria itself. Especially since a French victory would probably means some German lands occupied by France. Ditto with the Danish intervention. Furthermore Italy would probably join in against Austria to prevent them winning and then seeking to regain the lands lost to Italy in the previous decade.

Steve

Denmark wouldn't join in. It didn't in either 1866 or 1870-71. It remained on the defensive after 1864. 1869 the Nicobar Islands were ceded to Britain without compensation. Denmark didn't want to cross any Great Power of Europe.

[Max Sinister]

I read that Austria at least pondered joining the war, but they were careful and thus waited until France would defeat the Prussians at least once. Which didn't happen, so they didn't join.

[Antanas]

Russia will help France, considering united Germany as a danger for russian interests

[fhaessig]

Didn't Russia still smart from Crimea in 1871? And was Russia not yet a Prussian ally?

[Max Sinister]

Exactly. Of all the European states, Bismarck wanted good relationships especially with them. check what he said about "cauchemar des coalitions".

[Antanas]

Yes. Russians underestood their mistake only in 1879

[Iñaki]

If I remember well the french use the chassepot, a superb rifle, against the germans with very well outcomes, in fact in some moments it seems that the battle of Gravelotte-Sant Privatee had could been a french victory thanks to the chassepot rifle.

Another great weapon of the french was the mitralleuse, but in this case the french make a bad use of this weapon, instead in distributing this weapon between the infantry units, they grouped the mitralleuse in batteries as some kind of artillery, a very bad use of the mitralleuse that surely costs the french the victory (between other factors) in the war agaisnt the germans.

But what if the mitralleuse are distributed in the infantry units, this means that the possibilities of a french victory in Gravelotte-Saint Privatte are far lot than in OTL.

With the adequate use of the mitralleuse the french could win the war.

[Shawn Endresen]

Some good ideas here. Worth noting that the French don't have to win so much as not lose...Bismarck barely has the money for the war he got, he cannot sustain an army in the field for, say, two years. If the French can dig in anywhere outside of Paris and bleed him a little while, the German army mutinies and Prussia collapses quickly enough. As an added bonus, it requires neither prescience nor unusual stupidity from any other power.

Under the circumstances, Nappy III pretty much gets to pick the King of Spain now. The only other people whose opinions matter are the British. Who does he pick?

[arctic warrior]

Originally Posted by Shawn Endresen

Some good ideas here. Worth noting that the French don't have to win so much as not lose...Bismarck barely has the money for the war he got, he cannot sustain an army in the field for, say, two years. If the French can dig in anywhere outside of Paris and bleed him a little while, the German army mutinies and Prussia collapses quickly enough. As an added bonus, it requires neither prescience nor unusual stupidity from any other power.

Under the circumstances, Nappy III pretty much gets to pick the King of Spain now. The only other people whose opinions matter are the British. Who does he pick?

I don't think you'd have German army mutinies - that would be unheard of! But the various German princes and states would probably squabble over the war efford, creating political unrest in Germany and no German Empire this time. Prussia wouldn't collapse literally, but its unification policies would - for a time. The only thing not to do for Nappy is attack Germany afterwards - that would rally the Germans.

[Redbeard]

I believe it first of all was Bismarck's cordial relations with Russia that gave him a chance to go at his enemies one at a time. Without necessesarily having Russia actively oppose Prussia a slightly lessened support might very well have the Austrians and Danes join the French cause in 1870. I doubt if the Danes would join alone, that would simply be too hazardous, but along with Austria the scales would tip significantly, probably including some of the South German states abandoning Prussia, if joining her at all.

I guess the initiating PoD could be an Austrian statesman of Metternich's caliber by the 1860s and 70s. Not necessarily his views, which even for the 19th century were extremely conservative, but his Machiavelian skills.

Anything short of a decisive Prussian victory will probably be insufficient for declaring the 2nd Reich, and a lot of the states incoporated (or to be inc.) into Prussia will probably get/keep independence. We might still later see some kind of German Reunion, but in a much looser and less aggressive form.

BTW I don't think a Prussian defeat will mean Denmark taking all of S-H. The Danish claim clearly was limited to the Danish speaking areas - i.e. Slesvig - river Eider marking the border between Slesvig and Holsten.

Regards

Steffen Redbeard