WI: Humanitarian Soviet Union

With the POD anytime between 1910 and 1930, how would a different Soviet Union be in 2000?
In the alternate timeline, the Soviet Union would not enter in a cold war and instead of wasting resources with military things, it would use the resources to improve the welfare of the population. It would also avoid internal conflicts by tolerating religion and avoiding dictatorial policies.

The timeline needs another adjustment, because with weak military power, Hitler would be able to invade and bring down the Soviet Union. Later, the USA would free the Soviet Union and implant a modern capitalist system.


A suggestion: if Stalin had never been the leader of the Soviet Union? And if Hitler had never been the leader of Germany?
 
You would need a pre-1900 POD to make a difference. The Per Capita income of the USSR would mean that even if they were actually egalitarian and not wasting all their resources on weapons, people would still have a low standard of living.

Otherwise, you would have to totally butterfly away socialism, which stunted economic growth in Russia (and before everyone tries to chop my head off, there is a reason why market economies have much higher standards of livings...look how the average South Korean lives compared to the average Russian, even though South Korea in 1953 was essentially almost totally pre-industrial.
 
Otherwise, you would have to totally butterfly away socialism, which stunted economic growth in Russia (and before everyone tries to chop my head off, there is a reason why market economies have much higher standards of livings...look how the average South Korean lives compared to the average Russian, even though South Korea in 1953 was essentially almost totally pre-industrial).

And in the mean time both the Soviet Union and North Korea had higher standards of living the the South Koreans until the 1970s. The prevailing data seems to indicate that command economies are effective means of rapid industrialization, but then quickly stagnate once said industrialization is largely completed. It is entirely true that without the Soviet command economy, the former Imperial Russia probably would have industrialized anyways but it would take longer. On the other hand, said industrialization would be more efficient and economical over the long-haul.

To wit:

The Great Big Book of Horrible Things: The Black Chapter of Communism said:
Contrasting with the abysmal Communist failures in agriculture was its general success in heavy industry. During the era of big manufacturing economies, when the modern world revolved around gigantic projects like dams, power plants, coal mines, and steel mills, the Communists easily mobilized enough labor and resources to catch up with the rich countries of the West. This meant that the urbanites lucky enough to survive the purges and famines found their standards of living and life expectancies steadily improving.

However, once the necessities of life were provided, centrally planned economies proved too inflexible to predict and fulfill the fickle demands for consumer goods. Wasteful surpluses, shoddiness, and shortages resulted. Constant scarcities meant that only the well-connected could acquire goods and services. This bred resentment and cynicism in a system that was supposed to be based on idealism and solidarity.
 
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AsGryffynn

Banned
You would need a pre-1900 POD to make a difference. The Per Capita income of the USSR would mean that even if they were actually egalitarian and not wasting all their resources on weapons, people would still have a low standard of living.

Otherwise, you would have to totally butterfly away socialism, which stunted economic growth in Russia (and before everyone tries to chop my head off, there is a reason why market economies have much higher standards of livings...look how the average South Korean lives compared to the average Russian, even though South Korea in 1953 was essentially almost totally pre-industrial.

Doubling your economy in 5 years takes far more than what SK did. Also, the USSR was doing well until Brezhnev arrived.

And in the mean time both the Soviet Union and North Korea had higher standards of living the the South Koreans until the 1970s. The prevailing data seems to indicate that command economies are effective means of rapid industrialization, but then quickly stagnate once said industrialization is largely completed. It is entirely true that without the Soviet command economy, the former Imperial Russia probably would have industrialized anyways but it would take longer. On the other hand, said industrialization would be more efficient and economical over the long-haul.

This. I myself concluded that a centrally planned economy is good for industrialization because it allows full employment and full 24 hour service. This means the economy literally never slows down and grows at full speed up until industrialization is complete. As economies shift from development to consumption, CPE's lose momentum due the economy changing from an economy of investment to one of consumption, and as we know, economic planners are NOT in your house collecting information on your favorite brand of scarves or how many Pop Tarts you inhale overnight.
 
I don't see what we are proving here. Unless the USSR abandons Communism in the 1960s they will be far too poor to really offer their own people a decent standard of living by modern standards.
 
I don't see what we are proving here.

Mainly your comment that "socialism stunted economic growth in Russia" is something of a half-truth.

Unless the USSR abandons Communism in the 1960s they will be far too poor to really offer their own people a decent standard of living by modern standards.

True enough. They might have been able to squeeze slightly more of it had they kept going with the Khrushchev reforms, but ultimately they still would have started stagnating just a few years later. China-esque reforms would be necessary from that point forward.
 

AsGryffynn

Banned
I don't see what we are proving here. Unless the USSR abandons Communism in the 1960s they will be far too poor to really offer their own people a decent standard of living by modern standards.

If Khrushchev stays around a little bit longer, perhaps you may get some growth till the mid nineties.

Mainly your comment that "socialism stunted economic growth in Russia" is something of a half-truth.



True enough. They might have been able to squeeze slightly more of it had they kept going with the Khrushchev reforms, but ultimately they still would have started stagnating just a few years later. China-esque reforms would be necessary from that point forward.

Abandon the Virgin Lands campaign, concentrate on a plan that shifts away from extensive to intensive development and finally, start migration to market socialism SLOWLY! The economy overheats with "shock therapy" and can collapse almost completely lest it's already ruined. Had Yeltsin gone slower, Russia would've accelerated right away, rather than crashing further before Putin slowed the reforms down. Menem and Pinochet learned that the hard way.
 
Mainly your comment that "socialism stunted economic growth in Russia" is something of a half-truth.



True enough. They might have been able to squeeze slightly more of it had they kept going with the Khrushchev reforms, but ultimately they still would have started stagnating just a few years later. China-esque reforms would be necessary from that point forward.

If that occurs, Russia can be one of the wealthiest countries in the world today.
 
True enough. They might have been able to squeeze slightly more of it had they kept going with the Khrushchev reforms, but ultimately they still would have started stagnating just a few years later. China-esque reforms would be necessary from that point forward.

Would even that have helped?

China benefits from a massive population of unskilled laborers. The Soviet Union's population, even at its height, was much smaller, and the fact of the matter is that if there's any Cold War going on, they'll be devoting a proportionally larger fraction of their output to the Red Army than the PLA gets from China.
 
Would even that have helped?

China benefits from a massive population of unskilled laborers. The Soviet Union's population, even at its height, was much smaller, and the fact of the matter is that if there's any Cold War going on, they'll be devoting a proportionally larger fraction of their output to the Red Army than the PLA gets from China.

The Soviet population was also relatively skilled and still very large (larger than the United States', which of course dominated manufacturing into the 1980s), while the standards of living meant that they were cheaper than Western workers. Regardless of the political factors that would have inhibited China-esque reforms, they very well could have competed as a lower-cost alternative to Western manufacturers, with the benefit of being more on-par with Western workforces.
 
The problem is that Soviet industrial workers were closer to factory-floor serfs than anything else, heavily reliant on blat (Russian industrial workers still are, too), producing garbage by and large and essentially there was no labor market.

I don't think you can just square that circle, honestly. By the time the Chinese got kicked out of the countryside and put into factories, industry conformed to the market.
 
And in the mean time both the Soviet Union and North Korea had higher standards of living the the South Koreans until the 1970s. The prevailing data seems to indicate that command economies are effective means of rapid industrialization, but then quickly stagnate once said industrialization is largely completed. It is entirely true that without the Soviet command economy, the former Imperial Russia probably would have industrialized anyways but it would take longer. On the other hand, said industrialization would be more efficient and economical over the long-haul.

To wit:

Command economies, rather, are very good at copying what has already been done to a low standard without regard to cost. If you try to do that without the immense resources available to the Soviets, it would fail and badly.

They are not a 'good way to industrialize' unless the dramatic expansion of heavy manufacturing output is literally your only goal, with no regard to human life or over all benefit, and you have access to a gigantic reserve of some valuable resource (or resources).

This is bullshit. Do not follow this path. You are departing from the vast, overwhelming majority of analysis from across the political spectrum and no, you are not 'smarter' than all those foolish economists who refuse to see the holy glory and light of command socialism. You can find people who are in favor of dramatic government involvement in the economy, of a generous welfare state, and an important role for encompassing regulation who will still call you a damned fool for championing the ability of Soviet-style command economics to get results on anything without immense human and natural cost.

EDIT: It astounds me that, today, we can still have fellow travelers apologizing for the Soviet Union. It is people like this who give socialism a bad name and set the movement in the West back years or decades in terms of public acceptance.
 
The Stalinist FYP economy was basically the result of the abortion of the early attempt at capitalist transition (the NEP), mainly to preserve the power of bureaucrats that wouldn't be able to compete.

Using an FYP actually worked great in South Korea, but in completely different circumstances (and where there was the ability to conform production to market). In the USSR it created a Frankenstein version of industrialism.
 
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Perhaps the Soviets can just follow the South Korean model of going up the learning curve and keeping your market closed to imports until you are ready for the outside world?
 
Honestly calling it a command or planned economy gives too much credence to how planned it actually was, it was more like super-patrimonialism.
 
Perhaps the Soviets can just follow the South Korean model of going up the learning curve and keeping your market closed to imports until you are ready for the outside world?

You would need the NEP to survive, and I'm not sure how you're gonna get the bureaucrats to play ball (and it had other enemies too).
 

AsGryffynn

Banned
Would even that have helped?

China benefits from a massive population of unskilled laborers. The Soviet Union's population, even at its height, was much smaller, and the fact of the matter is that if there's any Cold War going on, they'll be devoting a proportionally larger fraction of their output to the Red Army than the PLA gets from China.

Without a big army to go around supporting red countries there would be no Cold War.

The Soviet population was also relatively skilled and still very large (larger than the United States', which of course dominated manufacturing into the 1980s), while the standards of living meant that they were cheaper than Western workers. Regardless of the political factors that would have inhibited China-esque reforms, they very well could have competed as a lower-cost alternative to Western manufacturers, with the benefit of being more on-par with Western workforces.

That is the main advantage... That and that, believe it or not, Eastern bloc products were known for being sturdy and durable.

The problem is that Soviet industrial workers were closer to factory-floor serfs than anything else, heavily reliant on blat (Russian industrial workers still are, too), producing garbage by and large and essentially there was no labor market.

I don't think you can just square that circle, honestly. By the time the Chinese got kicked out of the countryside and put into factories, industry conformed to the market.

This is supposing that production patterns too, are altered.

Command economies, rather, are very good at copying what has already been done to a low standard without regard to cost. If you try to do that without the immense resources available to the Soviets, it would fail and badly.

They are not a 'good way to industrialize' unless the dramatic expansion of heavy manufacturing output is literally your only goal, with no regard to human life or over all benefit, and you have access to a gigantic reserve of some valuable resource (or resources).

This is bullshit. Do not follow this path. You are departing from the vast, overwhelming majority of analysis from across the political spectrum and no, you are not 'smarter' than all those foolish economists who refuse to see the holy glory and light of command socialism. You can find people who are in favor of dramatic government involvement in the economy, of a generous welfare state, and an important role for encompassing regulation who will still call you a damned fool for championing the ability of Soviet-style command economics to get results on anything without immense human and natural cost.

EDIT: It astounds me that, today, we can still have fellow travelers apologizing for the Soviet Union. It is people like this who give socialism a bad name and set the movement in the West back years or decades in terms of public acceptance.

Belarus still has a command economy and it's been faring nicely. The only difference is that they now allow some form of private control in the consumer market, where planning stuff is too much of a hassle and can't be done easily.

Perhaps the Soviets can just follow the South Korean model of going up the learning curve and keeping your market closed to imports until you are ready for the outside world?

That'd backfire. South Korea had nothing to lose. The USSR would need to keep up their model until their economy wasn't just ready, but effectively on overdrive so that when you opened up, you'd already have a working economy in place, rather than have to race against others.

Honestly calling it a command or planned economy gives too much credence to how planned it actually was, it was more like super-patrimonialism.

It went from planned economy, to half assed planned economy to, "we're too lazy, so just pay people for sitting in assembly lines doing nothing or sleeping in the office's rest area".

Given AK 47's and Soviet Tank designs, I don't think the command economy was bad, but it was meant to industrialize the country, not run it!
 
economic planners are NOT in your house collecting information on your favorite brand of scarves or how many Pop Tarts you inhale overnight.
Would that help?

Encourage citizens to report that stuff so economic planners have data to plan off of.
 

RousseauX

Donor
Perhaps the Soviets can just follow the South Korean model of going up the learning curve and keeping your market closed to imports until you are ready for the outside world?

That's what they did, there was no serious foreign competition to Soviet state owned firms inside the USSR itself.

Its just that the people in charge of those firms refuse to allow competition even when it does become necessary and the only way to resolve that is by overthrowing the Communist party.
 
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RousseauX

Donor
Given AK 47's and Soviet Tank designs, I don't think the command economy was bad, but it was meant to industrialize the country, not run it!

The Soviet command economy produced great weapons because it poured like 20-30% of it's GDP into defense whereas the US made weapons which were superior in many areas with only ~5% of GDP spent on defense. It's still inefficient it's just that they kept throwing money at it until something good came out.
 
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