The Khuzestan gambit

[PMN1]

is played in 2005


http://www.globalsecurity.org/milita...oplan-1002.htm

OPLAN 1002-04 - The Khuzestan Gambit?


Forward presence of US forces in Iraq cements US credibility, strengthens deterrence, and facilitates transition from peace to war. Although ground forces provide the bulk of the long-term forward presence in Iraq, access to ports and airfields is essential to project other forces into the area. The continued presence of US forces in Iraq sends a strong visible message of the US commitment to defend this region. Presence is enhanced through on-going military-to-military interaction, cooperative defense measures, and prepositioning of equipment and supplies critical to US responsiveness and warfighting flexibility.

The term gambit comes from the Italian word gambetto, which was used for a tricky manoeuvre in wrestling. A chess gambit is a exotic way to enjoy a chess game -- there is a touch of recklessness necessarily to become a gambiteer. The term gambit applies to the opening of the game, involving an early sacrifice to achieve later superior attacking chances. The sacrifice is usually speculative, but hard to refuse.

During the Cold War there was speculation that the Soviet Union's war planning included the Hamburg Gambit, in which the Group of Soviet Forces in Germany would seize the port city of Hamburg, and then use this hostage in war-termination negotiations.

OPLAN 1002-04 has probably been revised to reflect the American occupation of Iraq, and the power projection opportunities this provides against Iran. The Zagros Mountains form a natural pallisade defending Iran from incursions from Iraq. The Iranian province of Khuzestan is the one large piece of flat Iranian terrain to the west of the Zagros Mountains. American heavy forces could swiftly occupy Khuzestan, and in doing so seize control of most of Iran's oil resources, and non-trivial portions of the country's water supply and electrical generating capacity.

Khuzestan [Khouzestan] is the most important pivot of Iran's economy. The existence of such huge resources as oil, gas and water in Khuzestan have changed the economic appearance of Iran. Oil first erupted from a well in the Massjed e Soleyman area, located in the southern Khuzestan province.

The two principal mountain ranges, the Zagros and the Elburz, diverge from a point of intersection in the Caucasus mountains; the former crosses Iran in a south-easterly direction toward the Persian Gulf.

Abadan is a large (pop. 308,000) oil-refinery boomtown, located at the junction of the Karun and Arvandrud rivers. It was largely destroyed during the Iran-Iraq War. Before the war, Abadan had a fairly good museum, but little else worth seeing; now it has even less. It is located 420 mi/675 km south-southwest of Tehran. Like Abadan, Ahvaz is a commercial city (pop. 580,000) that was heavily bombed during the Iran-Iraq War. The city's main attraction is its proximity to several historic sites: Choga Zambil (Elamite ruins and well-preserved ziggerat), Haft Tappe (ruins) and Shush 70 mi/115 km north of Abadan. Once Iran's largest port, Khorramshahr was almost destroyed during the Iran-Iraq War and is being rebuilt. The port, which lies near the Iraqi border on the Karun waterway, dates from ancient times (Alexander the Great founded a city nearby).

Khuzestan was home to one of the oldest human civilizations dating back at least 6000 years to Shoosh (Susa). In ancient tiems, such people as the Uxians (who gave their name to Khuzestan in southern Iran) were part of the Caucasic race of people. In the 17th century, in spite of their general poverty and rejection from public life, there were still a good number of Zoroastrians left throughout Persia, from Ahwaz in Khuzestan, to Kandehar in the east. Hautboy is occasionally used in Ashura ceremony in some provinces such as Khuzestan and Khorassan.

Generally, the Iranians whose mother tongue is Persian is estimated at more half of the total population of the country. Close to a quarter of the population speaks languages and dialects connected with the Persan one and which form part of the Iranian languages (guilaki, lori, mazandarani, Kurdish, baloutche). Another quarter of the Turkish languages (Azeri, turkmene, qashqhaï). There is also a minority Arabic-speaking person (less than 2 % of the population) living mainly in the province of Khuzestan and the coastal areas of the Persian Gulf.

The vast majority of Iran's crude oil reserves are located in giant onshore fields in the southwestern Khuzestan region near the Iraqi border and the Persian Gulf. Iran has 32 producing oil fields, of which 25 are onshore and 7 offshore. Major onshore fields include the following: Ahwaz-Asmari (700,000 bbl/d); Bangestan (around 245,000 bbl/d current production, with plans to increase to 550,000 bbl/d), Marun (520,000 bbl/d), Gachsaran (560,000 bbl/d), Agha Jari (200,000 bbl/d), Karanj-Parsi (200,000 bbl/d); Rag-e-Safid (180,000 bbl/d); Bibi Hakimeh (130,000 bbl/d), and Pazanan (70,000 bbl/d). Major offshore fields include: Dorood (130,000 bbl/d); Salman (130,000 bbl/d); Abuzar (125,000 bbl/d); Sirri A&E (95,000 bbl/d); and Soroush/Nowruz (60,000 bbl/d).

According to the Oil and Gas Journal (1/1/04), Iran holds 125.8 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, roughly 10% of the world's total, up from 90 billion barrels in 2003. In October 1999, Iran announced that it had made its biggest oil discovery in 30 years, a giant onshore field called Azadegan located in the southwestern province of Khuzestan, a few miles east of the border with Iraq. Reportedly, the Azadegan field contains proven crude oil reserves of 26 billion barrels. In July 2004, Iran's oil minister stated that the country's proven oil reserves had increased again, to 132 billion barrels, following new discoveries in the Kushk and Hosseineih fields in Khuzestan province.

Iran's energy generation capacity has risen to about 26,000 megawatts. The share of Khuzestan in total amount of energy produced in the country was 3,800 mega watts. The figure is expected to increase following operationing of three dams in Khuzestan province. Water resources are unevenly spread; 30 percent of surface water resources are concentrated in one province (Khuzestan), while many other populated provinces fully exploit their scarce available resources.

[MerryPrankster]

This sounds like one of those things that sounds good in theory but will go completely haywire if actually done.

Of course, the idea that US forces in Iraq or the Gulf could actually DO this will provide incentives for Iran to not misbehave re: Iraq.

[Leo Caesius]

The last time an army from Iraq attempted to occupy Khuzestan, it turned out to be an 8-year long debacle.

[carlton_bach]

Originally Posted by Leo Caesius

The last time an army from Iraq attempted to occupy Khuzestan, it turned out to be an 8-year long debacle.

Not a chance of a repeat performance. That would cover two presidential elections - someone's got to pull out.

[tinfoil]

Originally Posted by Leo Caesius

The last time an army from Iraq attempted to occupy Khuzestan, it turned out to be an 8-year long debacle.

There's a BIT of difference in combat capabilities between 1980 Iraq and 2006 USA-led coalition, not the least of which is overwhelming sea and air superiority.

[Grimm Reaper]

The idea is still not very good.

Nothing more assinine than invading a nation, grabbing vital resources and slice of territory, then leaving roughly 90% of the territory and perhaps more of the population and industry in the hands of the now-hostile government to get tired of fighting and decide to let you stay.

[Leo Caesius]

Originally Posted by tinfoil

There's a BIT of difference in combat capabilities between 1980 Iraq and 2006 USA-led coalition, not the least of which is overwhelming sea and air superiority.

We have about 130,000 troops who are doing all they can to keep law and order in Iraq. Apparently that's all we can spare at the moment. Can we afford to take these troops from their current duties and commit them to an invasion of Iran?

"Overwhelming sea and air superiority" may aid in an invasion, but is worthless in an occupation, particularly when you're surrounded by enemy territory. Note that Iran has 15,665,725 citizens fit for military service - that's more than half the total population of Iraq.

[CalBear]

A war with Iran presents a series of challenges to the attacker.

1. Iran is BIG, roughly the size of the "lower 48" U.S. states (1,648,000 sq. km.)

2. Iran has actual terrain features. Unlike Iraq, which is mostly flat desert, Iran had a great deal of mountainous terrain.

3. Iran has demonstrated willingness to absorb incredible casualities. In the Iran-Iraq war the Iranian forces used human wave attacks that would have impressed the Imperial Japanese Army.

4. Logistics work against an attacker. Long supply lines = lots of chances for "Insurgent" activity.

5. Defeating Iran would not be a three week process. It would take time, even if you could manage to create a civil war in-country.


Iran can be defeated if an opponent can face the mathematics. I don't think that any Western government is willing to face the math, especially the United States. I point out the public reaction to the Iraqi "Highway of Death" during the Gulf War as an example. Defeating Iran would require a virtual network of "Highways". The American people ARE casualty adverse, not just regarding American losses, but enemy losses as well. It would be necessary to get the American people REALLY whipped into a frenzy (something along the lines of Pearl Harbor or 9/11) to get them to accept seriously large piles of enemy bodies.

[Superdude]

What do you mean "lower 48"? Because Iran is nowhere near that size. What you are saying is that Iran is the size of China, and is bigger than all of Europe (not includin Russia).

[CalBear]

Originally Posted by Superdude

What do you mean "lower 48"? Because Iran is nowhere near that size. What you are saying is that Iran is the size of China, and is bigger than all of Europe (not includin Russia).

Actually it's a bit larger than Alaska.

[tinfoil]

Originally Posted by CalBear

Actually it's a bit larger than Alaska.

From CIA Factbook:

United States Top of Page
Location:

North America, bordering both the North Atlantic Ocean and the North Pacific Ocean, between Canada and Mexico
Geographic coordinates:

38 00 N, 97 00 W
Map references:

North America
Area:

total: 9,631,420 sq km
land: 9,161,923 sq km
water: 469,497 sq km
note: includes only the 50 states and District of Columbia
Area - comparative:

about half the size of Russia; about three-tenths the size of Africa; about half the size of South America (or slightly larger than Brazil); slightly larger than China; almost two and a half times the size of the European Union


Iran Top of Page
Location:

Middle East, bordering the Gulf of Oman, the Persian Gulf, and the Caspian Sea, between Iraq and Pakistan
Geographic coordinates:

32 00 N, 53 00 E
Map references:

Middle East
Area:

total: 1.648 million sq km
land: 1.636 million sq km
water: 12,000 sq km


The USA (incl Alaska) is about 6 times bigger than Iran
The USA (excl. Alaska) is about 5 times bigger than Iran

[tinfoil]

I would assume rthat there is still a lot of hatred between Iran and Iraq. If the UN (which might actually include some of the resources of countries other thna the USA) were to intervene in Iran, some of the Iraqi folks might:

1) stop stop of the insurgent activity
2) assist in invading/occupying Iran after the fact.

Of course, Iran is predominately Shi'a Muslim, same as the majority in Iran. But the 35% Sunni Iraqi minority is sufficiently large to guarantee that 'Iraq' will never react as if it were a single entity to an issue such as this one.

[basileus]

Originally Posted by CalBear

A war with Iran presents a series of challenges to the attacker.

1. Iran is BIG, roughly the size of the "lower 48" U.S. states (1,648,000 sq. km.)

2. Iran has actual terrain features. Unlike Iraq, which is mostly flat desert, Iran had a great deal of mountainous terrain.

3. Iran has demonstrated willingness to absorb incredible casualities. In the Iran-Iraq war the Iranian forces used human wave attacks that would have impressed the Imperial Japanese Army.

4. Logistics work against an attacker. Long supply lines = lots of chances for "Insurgent" activity.

5. Defeating Iran would not be a three week process. It would take time, even if you could manage to create a civil war in-country.


Iran can be defeated if an opponent can face the mathematics. I don't think that any Western government is willing to face the math, especially the United States. I point out the public reaction to the Iraqi "Highway of Death" during the Gulf War as an example. Defeating Iran would require a virtual network of "Highways". The American people ARE casualty adverse, not just regarding American losses, but enemy losses as well. It would be necessary to get the American people REALLY whipped into a frenzy (something along the lines of Pearl Harbor or 9/11) to get them to accept seriously large piles of enemy bodies.

Well, they'll mount another 9-11... Er, "they" WHO? That's the question.