What's the latest the Soviet Union could be avoided?

Just as it says on the tin.

I'm puttering away at a timeline that may have a divergence in 1917. I would like for the Russian Republic to be saved, with either Lenin and friends never being allowed passage into Russia to make trouble, or them going back into exile after a failed revolution. But from what little I know about all that, it seems hard to accomplish.

My idea is Kerensky's government deciding to make peace with Germany, which quenches the flames of public opinion. But I know next to nothing about the October Revolution.

I'd like to avoid the Russian Civil War, but it's fine if there's no other (plausible) way.
 
Earliest I can think of is having the Russian Republic to agree to negotiating a peace with the Central Powers. This may be difficult as the Central Powers will only accept a peace that's in their favor, which I don't think the Russians would agree to.

If you manage to get negotiations started, the Germans may not assist Lenin in getting to Russia. But doing so in OTL destabilized Russia a lot, so this is unlikely. Like I said before, I don't think the Russian republic will accept anything but white peace, which the Central Powers will never give.

Also, once Lenin gets into Russia, I think that a Revolution is inevitable.
 
One idea I've thought of, is that Germany does something like what it did after the Franco-Prussian War regarding the Paris Commune. In the timeline I'm planning, Germany wins the First World War, though perhaps not as favourably as they'd like, which may put them in a better position to help the Whites (they apparently did aid the Whites IOTL).

But...I have no idea what chance the Whites had to begin with.
 

Realpolitik

Banned
I don't know if this is "avoiding" persay, but if Stalin gets shot early on in his career as dictator, its possible that the thing falls apart in the mid 20s before the whole state is solidified. The other people in the Politburo would probably squabble over it, or go for the whole "continuing revolution" idea.
 

RousseauX

Donor
Just as it says on the tin.

I'm puttering away at a timeline that may have a divergence in 1917. I would like for the Russian Republic to be saved, with either Lenin and friends never being allowed passage into Russia to make trouble, or them going back into exile after a failed revolution. But from what little I know about all that, it seems hard to accomplish.

My idea is Kerensky's government deciding to make peace with Germany, which quenches the flames of public opinion. But I know next to nothing about the October Revolution.

I'd like to avoid the Russian Civil War, but it's fine if there's no other (plausible) way.

August 1917, avert the Kornilov affair
 
Is it possible that Kerensky sees the writing on the wall (growing discontent with the war) and seeks peace with Germany by whatever means necessary (barring, perhaps, something egregious like Brest-Litovsk)?

And speaking of Brest, I've long thought it was funny how the Soviets signed over so much territory, like they were just saying "here, take it, now leave us alone".
 

RousseauX

Donor
Is it possible that Kerensky sees the writing on the wall (growing discontent with the war) and seeks peace with Germany by whatever means necessary (barring, perhaps, something egregious like Brest-Litovsk)?

And speaking of Brest, I've long thought it was funny how the Soviets signed over so much territory, like they were just saying "here, take it, now leave us alone".

Yes, and the Germans will only ask for Latvia and Poland, as they did OTL, the real question is whether Kerensky can survive that politically at home.
 
I wonder if one would have to go further back in past to prevent any revolution at least.

Like saving that father or grandfather of the last Tsar, the one who was killed in a terrorist strike (Nicholas 1?)... his death convinced his successor to be verrrrrry carefull, his rule was rigid and reactionaire, and so ensuring perhaps an inelectuable revolt of the people soon, one day...
 

Stolengood

Banned
Yes, and the Germans will only ask for Latvia and Poland, as they did OTL, the real question is whether Kerensky can survive that politically at home.
The Soviets managed to survive it, after all.

Personally, I think an interesting one would be Lenin and the Bolsheviks getting more blowback from the Mensheviks over their bank-robbing/murdering escapades...
 
And speaking of Brest, I've long thought it was funny how the Soviets signed over so much territory, like they were just saying "here, take it, now leave us alone".

They figured that they would get it all back once the example of the first communist take-over in history caused revolution to sweep across Europe.

They were half-correct: they got most (but not all) of it back, but not because of revolution.

Yes, and the Germans will only ask for Latvia and Poland, as they did OTL

They asked for a hell of a lot more then that. All of the Baltic States, Belarus, and Ukraine. ITTL depending on when Kerensky calls it quits, he can probably salvage some of Ukraine, but not all of it and not the other territories. Unless the Germans go on to lose the war anyways, of course.
 
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RousseauX

Donor
They asked for a hell of a lot more then that. All of the Baltic States, Belarus, and Ukraine. ITTL depending on when Kerensky calls it quits, he can probably salvage some of Ukraine, but not all of it and not the other territories. Unless the Germans go on to lose the war anyways, of course.

Actually, Poland and Lithuanian were the peace terms given to the Bolshevik government by Germany in January 1918
 
Just as it says on the tin.

I'm puttering away at a timeline that may have a divergence in 1917. I would like for the Russian Republic to be saved, with either Lenin and friends never being allowed passage into Russia to make trouble, or them going back into exile after a failed revolution. But from what little I know about all that, it seems hard to accomplish.

My idea is Kerensky's government deciding to make peace with Germany, which quenches the flames of public opinion. But I know next to nothing about the October Revolution.

I'd like to avoid the Russian Civil War, but it's fine if there's no other (plausible) way.

You may be able to prevent the USSR with a POD in 1917, but it's going to be rather tough to pull off; as it was, the seeds for the creation of the USSR were already planted in 1905, with the February Revolution, and they are going to be HARD to dislodge.

Best case scenario? The Bolsheviks get beaten, and the Menshies get fair representation in the new government. And the most hardcore Tsarists are booted out of the country for good, as well as Nicholas II himself. Just my two cents, though. :cool:
 
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