Independent Chaos Redux

Independent Chaos Redux
By Ol'Garry Boldwater

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Chris Huhne Resigns as an MP
5th February 2013
theguardian.com/uk

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"Chris Huhne has resigned as an MP today. Two days ago Huhne resigned from from the cabinet and yesterday the former Lib Dem minister plead guilty to perverting the course of justice. This is seen as a large blow to the Lib Dems as Huhne was seen as a leading figure within the party." - Huw Edwards, BBC News at 10, 5th February 2013

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That was the day it all started. That was the day UKIP would start becoming a force to be reckoned with. Huhne's resignation meant that there would be a by-election in his seat of Eastleigh. Eastleigh was perfect UKIP territory. With Lib Dem support at an all-time low there we could sweep a lot of the protest vote as well as getting disaffected Tories on out side. We had a good candidate, we had good circumstances and we could win."

Stuart Wheeler, Independent Chaos: The Rise of UKIP

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Eastleigh Polling Data
5th February 2013

Conservatives 34%
Liberal Democrats 31%
Labour 19%
UKIP 14%

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Will UKIP Win Eastleigh?
8th February 2013
telegraph.co.uk/news/timstanley

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The Statement of Person Nominated
13th February 2013

Colin Bex - Wessex Regionalists
David Bishop - Elvis Loves Pets Party
Jim Duggan - The Peace Party
Ray Hall - Beer, Baccy and Crumpet Party
'Howling Laud' Hope - Monster Raving Loony William Hill Party
Maria Hutchings - Conservative Party
Diane James - UKIP
Iain Maclennan - National Health Action
Kevin Milburn - Christian Party
John O'Farrell - Labour Party
Daz Procter - TUSC
Danny Stupple - Independent
Michael Thornton - Liberal Democrats
Michael Walters - The English Democrats

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"Maria Hutchings, the Conservative candidate in Eastleigh has said that her "Son is too gifted to go to state school," as he is a surgeon. Hutchings has been described as a "Sarah Palin Figure" by the Liberal Democrats. Furthermore she has also been accussed of "snobbery" this is more bad news for the Conservative Party as many polls are reporting a UKIP surge in the Hampshire constituency." - George Alagaih , BBC News at 6, 17th February 2013

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"It is easy to see how out of touch the Tories are. UKIP are the only party that can deliver." - Diane James, 21st February 2013

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"The UK Independence Party are experiencing a large surge of support in Eastleigh according to polling data. The by-election, caused by the resignation of Chris Huhne is currently a tight three-way race between the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and UKIP. A senior Conservative party has called the surge 'troubling.' while Nigel Farage has said it is 'momentous'" - Huw Edwards, BBC News at 10, 25th February 2013

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By-Election Day
28th February 2013
bbc.co.uk/news/

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Eastleigh By-Election Results

UKIP 30.7%
Liberal Democrat 30.2%
Conservative 24.2%
Labour 10.0%
Independent 1.8%
National Health Action 0.9%
Beer, Baccy and Crumpet 0.6%
Christian 0.4%
Monster Raving Loony 0.3%
Peace 0.3%
Elvis Loves Pets 0.2%
English Democrats 0.1%
TUSC 0.1%
Wessex Regionalists 0.1%

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"UKIP are now a legitimate force in British politics, this is a seismic shift." - Nigel Farage, 28th February 2013

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"This is unprecedented and this is the largest step Britain has ever made towards a four party system and maybe this will lead to more success for UKIP. It's unknown so far how Diane James will affect parliament however one thing is for sure, UKIP are most likely here to stay," - Nick Robinson, BBC News Eastleigh by-election coverage, 28th February 2013

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"We need to reconsider if David Cameron is the best possible leader for the Conservative Party." - Liam Fox, The Andrew Marr Show, 1st March 2013

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"I think Fox's comments are appalling. David Cameron is the only one that can get us out of the mess left by Labour and the only one who can stopped uncontrolled immigration. Cameron is the best leader for the Conservatives and Fox should not be undermining him." - Michael Gove, Daily Politics, 3rd March 2013

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"I have to disagree with Michael again. By criticizing the Prime Minister I am helping the party. To guarantee a Conservative majority in 2015 we need a strong leader and that is not what we have right now. Michael is doing a great job with his education brief and so are many other ministers, but I personally don't think David is going a good job." - Liam Fox, Daily Politics, 6th March 2013

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Leading Conservatives Disagree over Cameron's Leadership
7th March 2013
The Times

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Top Tory Toffs Tussle
7th March 2013
The Daily Mirror

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Liam Fox sipped his wine happily. He was at his favourite restaurant and he had ordered his favourite meal; Sea Bass with a light, white wine sauce, potato gratin and peas. After a short wait his guest arrived.

"Ah, Michael, Nice to see you." said Fox, shaking Gove's hand.

"Yes, yes, and you too." replied Gove as he sat down.

"Michael, you know I just wanted to invite you here to apologize for our little quarrel. It looks bad and its unprofessional and its wrong to argue like that so everyone can see."

"Yes,well I wanted to apologize too and -" as Gove said that a waiter interrupted them.

"And for you sir?"

"I'll have what ever he's having." snapped Gove, slightly annoyed at the interruption.

After about a quarter of an hour chatting out their respective families the two men got their food and then started talking about politics again.

"Come Liam, you didn't just get me here to apologize and talk about your kids. What's the real reason you came to talk to me?"

"Really I just wanted to apologize." replied Fox.

"Bulls**t."

"Really Michael."

"Bulls**t."

"Okay,okay, I am ready to bring down Cameron if he loses the local elections to Farage," confessed Fox.

"What?, Why? That's suicidal."

"Cameron can't stop UKIP. It's that simple, I can."

"And what do you want from me?, support, you want me not to stand for the leadership?, what do you want?" asked Gove, visibly angry with the fact that Fox was considering betraying the PM.

"I want your support." Fox stated, matter-of-factually.

"And in return?" Gove paused and hastily added " But bear in mind this is purely hypothetical I am rather unwilling to betray David since you might lose or you won't offer me enough."

"I'll offer you enough."

Gove leaned in. "Healthcare?, Home Secretary?" the education minister asked.

"Better, Chancellor or Deputy Prime Minister. Your choice."

"I'll think about it over this chocolate souffle," said Gove gesturing to the menu.

Fox smiled.

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"Yes Andrew, I do think the Prime Minister is slightly underestimating the UK Independence Party. On this issue I would have to agree with my colleagues Liam Fox and David Davis. Farage is obviously popular and my party somehow needs to counter his party and right now the Prime Minister's not doing it." - Michael Gove, The Andrew Marr Show, 10th March 2013

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"Well, to be brutally honest they're just a bunch of racist clowns, aren't they?" - Kenneth Clarke, The Daily Politics, 13th March 2013

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UKIP Candidates Face Controversy
16th March 2013
bbc.co.uk/news

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"I don't think they are a serious party and I don't think that they will do any good in Westminster. The Conservative Party is the only serious party of the right." - George Osborne, Andrew Marr Show, 21st March 2013

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"The local elections would be our second great test. After beating Cameron in Eastleigh we needed to show that we could do it again and that meant that even if we could be the Conservatives by half a per cent it would be enough to humiliate Cameron. As the local elections got closer the Tories became more aggressive and Cameron sent out Ken Clarke and George Osborne to do his dirty work for him and insult us and attack us. However the more they underestimated us and called us names, the more the public swayed to our side. It took a while for them to realize it, that they were helping us by trying to hurt us. "

Stuart Wheeler, Independent Chaos: The Rise of UKIP

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"UKIP were under more pressure today as their candidates faced yet more controversy. The party, which has recently won their first MP has surged in popularity and is currently preparing for the local elections. However, it has been revealed that UKIP has links with the British National Party and the revelation that many of their members used to be members of a neo-nazi party may lose them precious support." - Jon Snow, ITV News, 26th March 2013

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"We need to take this country back!" - Diane James, House of Commons, 3rd April 2013

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The Local Elections: UKIP's to Lose?
9th April 2013
theguardian.com/uk

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Local Election Poll
13th April 2013

Labour 28%
Conservatives 23%
UKIP 23%
Liberal Democrats 12%

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"So if we lose the locals you're going for it then?"

"Yes Michael, we hold a vote of no confidence, we deny Cameron the majority in it and that should cause a leadership election."

"And you are going to run, win and appoint me Chancellor."

"If all goes according to plan..."

"But Liam, You forget one thing."

"What?"

"It never does go according to plan."

A extract from a telephone conversation between Liam Fox and Michael Gove, April 14th 2013

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"London Major Boris Johnson has said today that Britain must leave the European Union as fast as possible. He also called for the Conservative Party to be more aggressive against UKIP. He added 'We need to convince people we can run the country better than Farage' - Jon Snow, ITV News, 20th April 2013

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Labour Keeping Quiet on the UKIP Question
25th April 2013
telegraph.co.uk

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"Its interesting that Ed Miliband has so far said very little about the momentous rise of the UK Independence Party. He has still kept quiet although UKIP are now threatening to beat the Tories or even Labour in the Local Elections. This is a massive gamble by him as it is shown that some UKIP voters originally came from Labour." - Nick Robinson, BBC News, 27th April

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"This is the beginning of the official BBC coverage of the 2013 Local Elections, people from all over the country will be voting for different political parties to elect who they want to represent them on city councils. This is an important night for all four main parties however for different reasons. For the Conservatives it is a matter of holding on to their council seats while for Labour it is a matter of breaking through in areas where they have long been weak in like Southern England. For the Liberal Democrats and UKIP these elections will probably make or break them," - Huw Edwards, BBC News Local Election Coverage, 2nd May 2013

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"That was a big night for us. As big as Eastleigh. We managed to beat the Tories and came in second place. There was massive disappointment among all the parties, apart from us. The Lib Dems got nearly wiped out. Labour failed to make many gains and the Conservatives were beaten by the 'racist clowns'. Nigel, Diane and I celebrated with much champagne that night."

Stuart Wheeler, Independent Chaos: The Rise of UKIP

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Local Election Results
2nd May

Labour 28%
UKIP 26%
Conservatives 24%
Liberal Democrats 14%

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"We lost and we lost badly. However, the voters need to understand that UKIP will change nothing and will ruin the British economy," - Nick Clegg, Daily Politics, 3rd May

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"Hi, again Michael," said Liam Fox over the phone.

"Yes, hello," replied a slightly flustered Gove. "Why did you wake me up in the middle of the night, you nearly woke Sarah."

"Sorry," apologized Fox sheepishly. "You know why I'm calling you."

"Yes."

"Cameron's lost the locals to the 'Kippers. We need to start making moves." said Fox. "Talk to all the backbenchers you're close to, as will I, Implore them to write to Brady. All we need is 46 letters to the chairman of the 1922 Committee and that'll trigger a leadership election."

"Okay."

"After that you know what happens, we talked about it."

"Yes."

"Do that and you'll be chancellor," said Fox.

"Yes," Gove repeated. "Yes I will."

A extract from a telephone conversation between Liam Fox and Michael Gove, May 4th 2013

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"According to a former government minister and leading Conservative backbencher, party members and backbench MPs are unhappy with David Cameron's leadership. This comes after the party's third place finish in last week's local elections and the election of Diane James, the first MP of the UK Independence Party. Sources close to the Prime Minister have however responded to these claims calling them 'nonsense' and saying that 'the party is 100% behind David.'." - Huw Edwards, BBC News at 10, 10th May 2013

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"Former government minister and leading Conservative backbencher you say? He's made it too bloody easy. It's Fox isn't it?" said Farage as he sipped on his glass of red wine. The restaurant was noisy and bustling. It was one of those posh places Farage secretly liked. Fine, French food at a a reasonably affordable price, and good wine of course.

"It could be, and it probably is, but it might not be," answered Stuart Wheeler. "There are other options. It could be Lansley or Mitchell."

"Paterson?" offered Diane James, who was sitting opposite the two men, enjoying a simple glass of water.

"Yes, seems possible, but it is probably Fox. He's been plotting which is good for us. Weakening the Tories from within allows us beat them in the EU elections which gives us a good launchpad for 2015." said Wheeler.

"Not necessarily Stuart, if he wins a leadership contest he'll have weakened the party but we wouldn't necessarily gain from it. The hardcore eurospectics and old ex-Tories will go from us to Fox and we don''t have enough support in Labour strongholds to offset this leakage by gaining somewhere else. He'll be bad for the Tories and he'll be bad for us." James countered, thoughtfully.

"But, a leadership challenge by Liam doesn't necessarily mean that he'll win. He who wields the dagger rarely gets the crown. If a 'moderniser' wins that'll only suit us and expose the Tories for the middle-class metropolitan party that they are. If some liberal europhile wins, like Osborne, we can use that to our advantage, if someone reasonable like Fox or Gove win then at least they'll have destabilized the party and give us room to work with them during the inevitable coalition negations in 2015." said Farage, refilling his wine glass and leaning back on his chair.

"So Fox winning isn't that bad for us," admitted James while Farage nodded. "But what do we do now?,"

"Since your the only one in parliament we have to use that to our advantage. Firstly network with the Tory backbenchers, send them signals that we'll try to work with them in 2015 if Cameron goes. Meet with Fox too, have a casual chat in the voting lobby or something, encourage him. Then, after the leadership contest, if Fox loses, look for defectors. I've found Peter Bone, Carswell and Nadine Dorries who might be willing to work with us, given the right circumstances and enough persuading, but I'm sure there are more," Farage said. "I have a feeling that we'll be in a very good position come 2015."

"Nigel, Nigel. The food's coming." said Wheeler eagerly, gesturing at the waiter walking towards them, three plates in hand, at the other end of the restaurant.

"Thank God, I'd had enough of talking politics," Diane James said, to some laughter. "Westminster Bubble and all that,"

La Manche Restaurant, London, 11th May 2013

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Tensions brewing within the Tory Party
13th May 2013
telegraph.co.uk

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"The results in the local elections were quite frankly shocking. They showed us that the Conservative Party has to return to its roots in order to slowdown the rise of UKIP. The Prime Minister has only made the problem worse by voting for gay marriage and making concessions to the Liberal Democrats. I think it is about time to fight for proper, conservative values."

"Are you going to challenge David Cameron for the party leadership then?"

"I certainly don't rule it out,"

An extract from an interview between Liam Fox and Andrew Marr, May 16th 2013

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Tory Leadership Poll
Conservative Home
20th May

David Cameron 42%
Liam Fox 39%
Other/Don't Know 19%

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Michael Gove put down the pen, folded the piece of paper, licked the envelope and placed the letter inside.

"Letter 46, sounds like a film," muttered Gove under his breath. "Gerald!" he shouted across his office, "Put this in the postbox."

Michael Gove's Office, 23rd May 2013

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