No Peninsular War, what does Napoleon do instead?

Napoleon had reservations about fighting the Spaniards, remarking that the conquest of Spain might be "too hard a nut to crack". What if he took his own advice and decided to focus elsewhere? Napoleon was hardly the type to sit around and consolidate his holdings, so where would he take his Grand Army next? Perhaps somewhere expected like Austria or Prussia, to Russia earlier than OTL, or someplace frivolous like Sicily, Sardinia, Scandinavia, or the Ottoman Empire?

Not sure what Napoleon can do with Sicily/Scandinavia/Ottoman Empire with the British navy around.

Even without conquering Spain, his imperatives of securing the 'Continental System' would definitely mean taking out Portugal at some point, and bringing a vacillating Russia back into the fold. So war with them still seems pretty likely.

Other alternatives... maybe Napoleon catches wind of Austria/Prussia re-organizing its army and decides to pre-empt their destruction.

profxyz said:

Other alternatives... maybe Napoleon catches wind of Austria/Prussia re-organizing its army and decides to pre-empt their destruction.

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Were they particularly open about rearming, did he not have the man power to pre-empt them when he figured it out IOTL? Or was he oblivious to the fact until he was attacked by them?

I'm assuming you mean that he never invades Spain. He will still invade Portugal and eventually take it. After that he goes for Russia or the Balkans.

Invade Denmark and steal their navy before the Brits do.

Kovalenko said:

Were they particularly open about rearming, did he not have the man power to pre-empt them when he figured it out IOTL? Or was he oblivious to the fact until he was attacked by them?

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I think the War of the Fifth Coalition in 1809 (Austria vs. France) took Napoleon pretty much by surprise (mainly because he had been away on campaign in Spain), though how much that was because Berthier screwed up Napoleon's orders to the troops is debatable. Of course, Austria gambled on a hasty war in 1809 partly because of French defeats in Spain like Bailen.

If Napoleon had stayed in Paris, I think he'd have to be pretty thick to not get any wind about the reorganization/re-armament plans of Scharnhorst or the Archduke Charles. In any case, once reorganization was completed it's almost inevitable that Prussia and Austria would want to try again versus France.

Gurroruo said:

I'm assuming you mean that he never invades Spain. He will still invade Portugal and eventually take it.

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I'm assuming he still invades Portugal but sticks to his original plan of keeping Spain as an ally and adhering to the Treaty of Fontainebleau.

Gurroruo said:

After that he goes for Russia or the Balkans.

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Would he go for Russia or the Balkans first? To invade the Balkans, wouldn't he have to declare war on the Ottomans? Was he ever interesting in fighting a war against the Ottomans IOTL?

KittyKat said:

Invade Denmark and steal their navy before the Brits do.

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Do you think would he have much success, the Brits had a navy to throw around, the French, not so much.

profxyz said:

In any case, once reorganization was completed it's almost inevitable that Prussia and Austria would want to try again versus France.

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I assume without Spain distracting him the war would at least result in a victory resembling OTL, would he impose a harsher peace ITTL?

Kovalenko said:

Do you think would he have much success, the Brits had a navy to throw around, the French, not so much.

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Well, if he's still on first-name terms with Spain, Napoleon can still count on the Spanish navy. At this point is not what it was before Trafalgar, but can help in a pinch, i suppose (not an expert in navy matters).

Kovalenko said:

Would he go for Russia or the Balkans first? To invade the Balkans, wouldn't he have to declare war on the Ottomans? Was he interesting in doing so IOTL (aside from Egypt of course)?

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While probably Russia, depending on the Balkan situation. if he hears of Austrian rearming he will invade them and I think the war will have some close battles maybe some Austrian victories, but in the end Napoleon wins. Some time after this he invades Russia

it's about the trees

Napoleons best chance is to play it as if it were the first Punic war. “Lose fleet after fleet, until the attrition to the RN renders it unsustainable” There are more trees in continental Europe than there are on England. Not only that, but the greatest advantage the English have are their naval officers, these are going to be spent quickly leveling the field. Those Carthaginians are eventually going to capitulate, when they do so, sack London in a short campaign. That will show them not to mess with the continental system.

Mr. pollos said:

Napoleons best chance is to play it as if it were the first Punic war. “Lose fleet after fleet, until the attrition to the RN renders it unsustainable” There are more trees in continental Europe than there are on England. Not only that, but the greatest advantage the English have are their naval officers, these are going to be spent quickly leveling the field. Those Carthaginians are eventually going to capitulate, when they do so, sack London in a short campaign. That will show them not to mess with the continental system.

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Doesn't work.

RN placed a close blockade on all major French ports, Carthaginians didn't do that to Rome.

Napoleon literally could not sortie his ships without running into a greatly superior British force post 1805

Add to that the French did not have the manpower to challenge the British, trained or otherwise. The British field army was small cf the french field forces but the navy took up 150,000 men. Taking 100,000 men out of the French army for years would have crippled Napoleon's Grand Armee

In the Rome-Carthage example there were only a handful of specialised sailors per ship - most of the oarsmen and troops were landlubbers who could be retasked very quickly..

Mr. pollos said:

Napoleons best chance is to play it as if it were the first Punic war. “Lose fleet after fleet, until the attrition to the RN renders it unsustainable” There are more trees in continental Europe than there are on England.

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There aren't more than there are in Canada. This was a resource that wasn't exploited much OTL because Scandinavia was closer and usually open for business, but there were plans to do so if it proved necessary.

Not only that, but the greatest advantage the English have are their naval officers, these are going to be spent quickly leveling the field. Those Carthaginians are eventually going to capitulate, when they do so, sack London in a short campaign. That will show them not to mess with the continental system.

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What Derek said. The French aren't Borg - they're not going to cross the channel by filling it with the bodies of drowned sailors.

Was Spain willing to let France send vast armies across its territory to subdue Portugal?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

Cross Spain, sustain n army in Portugal, Keep it there for the counterattack and allow it to maneuver.

Dos de Mayo happens while France nd Spain are still allied.

The French Naval problem is actually harder than you think because of port locations and resupply.

Grey Wolf said:

Was Spain willing to let France send vast armies across its territory to subdue Portugal?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

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At least in theory, they proposed to divide the kingdom between them at Fontainebleau. IOTL the French armies were well enough received before they started burning down the country.

Interesting, thanks for the clarifications. I can’t believe I was so wrong about this. I always had the impression that British continental policy had as an objective the prevention of the tree attrition scenario.

Derek Pullem said:

RN placed a close blockade on all major French ports, Carthaginians didn't do that to Rome.

Napoleon literally could not sortie his ships without running into a greatly superior British force post 1805..

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So there is no way to even replenish the operational naval loses? this seems like the bigest issue, is there a way around this?

Derek Pullem said:

Add to that the French did not have the manpower to challenge the British, trained or otherwise. The British field army was small cf the french field forces but the navy took up 150,000 men. Taking 100,000 men out of the French army for years would have crippled Napoleon's Grand Armee

In the Rome-Carthage example there were only a handful of specialised sailors per ship - most of the oarsmen and troops were landlubbers who could be retasked very quickly..

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I don’t think this is much of an issue. Not only is France more populated than Britain, but a great deal of Napoleonic success was the French ability to waste their demographics. We are also assuming he doesn’t go into Russia or Spain.

RPW@Cy said:

There aren't more than there are in Canada. This was a resource that wasn't exploited much OTL because Scandinavia was closer and usually open for business, but there were plans to do so if it proved necessary.

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Is Canada populated enough to sustain a fleet building industry on par with that of France?

Mr. pollos said:

So there is no way to even replenish the operational naval loses? this seems like the bigest issue, is there a way around this?

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Napoleon's actual plan was to build ships in pretty much every shipyard in Europe and train sailors on the Zuider Zee, then sally all the ships simulatenously, or something. This plan was, to put it mildly, somewhat optimistic - the Zuider Zee is probably the biggest reasonably enclosed body of water in the French empire, but it isn't *that* big. And you don't train sialors the way you do army conscripts - a point which Napoleon, being a land animal, never seemed to truly understand.

I don’t think this is much of an issue. Not only is France more populated than Britain, but a great deal of Napoleonic success was the French ability to waste their demographics. We are also assuming he doesn’t go into Russia or Spain.

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Training sailors is longer and more complicated than training army conscripts - and training naval officers is more complicated still, probably by an order of magnitude. There's a reason the Royal Navy, unlike the British army, never allowed purchase of commissions - in the army, you can get away with a fortune and good connections up to a point, but a naval officer has to know actual skills, and these are skills which the French are losing while being blockaded.

Is Canada populated enough to sustain a fleet building industry on par with that of France?

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The idea was to ship the timber to Britain and work it there. And yes this could have been done but would have been horribly expensive, which is why historically Britain preferred to try and keep the Baltic open.

my light hearted, but snarky comment:

Napoleon would not start another war. We're told constantly that it was the coalition forces that forced the wars on Napoleon


My opinion is that Napoleon always planned a dual Spanish/Portuguese invasion. Spain originally didn't want French forces crossing, but Nap told them either let them across or be invaded themselves. French forces were barely on Portuguese soil before the 'reinforcements' going through Spain started taking over Spain. A Portugal only scenario could be done, but inevitably there's going to be friction between Spain and France. Spain would roll over constantly trying to appease France, and the country folk will rebel. I don't know if Nap has the fortitude to not take advantage of the situation. I seriously doubt it. IMO, the only way to avoid the peninsular war is to leave Portugal alone. Perhaps have Joao in Portugal roll over and capitulate to France, thus preventing the excuse for invasion? Of course, Britain then cuts off Brazil (Britain treated Portugal as an ally only marginally better than France treated Spain)

Austria was at a point in 1809 where they couldn't afford to keep their (still modernizing) army mobilized without a war going on. They were vacillating between attack or demobilize, when the situation in Spain convinced them to attack. Without Spain, I think they demobilize.

You probably see a couple of years of quiet time in the War (in reality, the only war going on at the time was Britain vs Spain/France) then it heats up again when Russia leaves the Continental System.

Britain was planning on an invasion in Venezuala for 1808 (led by Wellington) when the situation on the peninsula diverted them there.

Argentina would be a far better target to invade.

Grey Wolf said:

Was Spain willing to let France send vast armies across its territory to subdue Portugal?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

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Spain was reluctant

Gannt the chartist said:

Cross Spain, sustain n army in Portugal, Keep it there for the counterattack and allow it to maneuver.

Dos de Mayo happens while France nd Spain are still allied.

The French Naval problem is actually harder than you think because of port locations and resupply.

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Dos de Mayo won't occur. Dos de Mayor was caused by Murat seizing part of the royal family so they could moved to France

If the French fastly march through Spain then there will be friction too much.

Once Ferdinand comes to power there will be friction with France but Ferdinand will not start a war unless Napoleon suffers a major reverse elsewhere