Bolshevik Revolution without Kornilov affair

In OTL in August 1917 because of Kornilov affair Kerensky released Petrograd Bolsheviks armed them and allow to create some troops. Affair lead to crush rest of Kerensky respect in army. Mentioned red troops were used few months later to gain control over Petrograd during October Revolution. Seize of Petrograd allowed Bolsheviks to become legal authority of Russia, gain massive war supplies, Petrograd military factories and with Moscow main transport hubs.
But what if…
Lawr Kornilov died in 1916 Summer during his escape from Austrian captivity, e.g. lone bullet during escaping trough frontline. Until August 1917 it will probably won’t change ‘gereat history’ (only case of Brusílov successor, I don’t have candidats) but lack of Kornilov Affair should change revolution events.
IMO it should look that.
Bolsheviks will start revolution after announcement of Russian Constituent Assembly election results (which should be worse for them than that OTL), lack of red guards in Petrograd and some support in military circles should help Kierensky in controll situation in Petrograd, probably Moscow will gain by revolutionists. Lenin, Trocky and rest of RSDLP (b) leaders will escape to Moscow. In that situation we have classic civil war with legal authority and rebels. That kind of antibolsheviks have many advantages angainst OTL White Russia:
- Localisation which helped in support from Entente and hinder Red troops movemants
- State administration
- Program of changes, beter for russian peasantry and workers than Whites reactionary
- Support in ppl showed in Constituent Assembly elections (great vistory of SR Party).
In international situation probably Germany will recognize Lenin govermant and signed some kind of treaty but worse for them than OTL Treaty of Brest-Litovsk (less troops moved on west frontline because of Kirensky Russia still in war). Ukrainian People's Republic probably will sign Treaty of Brest-Litovsk as OTL.
Feel free to discuss.

bump.

interesting idea

Without the Kornilov Affair, many prominent Bolsheviks would be imprisoned due to the July Days (among others, Leon Trotsky) and the pro-Bolshevik workers wouldn't have as many weapons (Kerensky issued arms to help fight Kornilov).

There might not be a Bolshevik coup at all, although Kerensky's insistence on continuing an unpopular war is going to get him opposition. However, without Kornilov the Russian military situation might degrade to the point Kerensky might seek peace earlier.

Lots of possibilities...

FWIW, here is an argument (made against me) that the Kornilov affair was not really of decisive importance: https://groups.google.com/d/msg/soc.history.what-if/31UIrK-pID4/3CNcKU8rjb4J

But in mentioned discussion main point is save Russia as power before I WW end. In this scenario lack of Kornilov Affair will help 'only' to protect Petrograd and Kierensky. Ofc it still wont be easy but more possible than in OTL. And we have to remember that after KA bolsheviks strongly increased ppl support in russian capital.

Jones777 said:

But in mentioned discussion main point is save Russia as power before I WW end. In this scenario lack of Kornilov Affair will help 'only' to protect Petrograd and Kierensky.

Click to expand...

"Saving" Russia is still hard. You still have a government committed to an unpopular war it can't fight, with people also starving and going on strike. So I'd say baring a faster Germany defeat we can still see a Russian Civil however there won't be a unified white movement against the Reds, but pretty much out and out warfare for control of Russia. Baring Poland, which the provisional government agreed for independence, we can also see lots of separatists throw into the mix as well.

In the short run it is very hard to argue that the Kornilov Affair is unimportant, the tricky question is the long run.

Kerensky gets taken too seriously. If the revolution is averted due to no Kornilov Affair then after the RCA elections Chernov takes over though he will probably find a role for Kerensky in the RCA government.

Actually instead of an immediate Bolshevik uprising after the RCA elections (and I agree that the Bolsheviks would do worse than OTL) I would see an internal Bolshevik power between Lenin and the Zinoviev/Kamensky "work within the government" faction. Lenin prevailing is probable not certain and this power struggle would delay the uprising

The German government will only negotiate with a government that can start by delivering a ceasefire. They will not negotiate with Lenin if he cannot deliver one. Actually I could see a de facto ceasefire arising on the Eastern Front while a very multifactional Civil War unfolds.

Civil War was sure. It was impossible for Lenin to work with PG because he had to hide in Finnland as german spy and erlier in May Bolsheviks decided to revolt. But their main leaders as Trotsky were inprisioned. So IMO they will started revolution after announce results of RCA elections and won only in Moscow and some lesser cities. In result radical anti war socialists will join to Lenin and less radical with liberals will still support PG. To save their interests (factories, Russian debts ect.) and prevent to separete peace western powers will help PG. War will be probably shorter. After peace GB and France will probably try use Polish, Ukrainian and Finnish hands to beat Bolshevics. PG will recognised that states what will start White Revolution.

Reading Orlando Figes, I thought of a pretty late PoD -- what if, after the July Days, Kerensky doesn't sack Brusilov as Commander in Chief? From what I read, it was apparently a fairly impulsive decision, motivated in part by a petty "slight" the general showed him by not personally greeting him at a train station some two days prior. Of course, if Brusilov stays, then Kornilov doesn't take his place, and the whole affair he's named after doesn't happen.

And just to make things easier -- apparently Lenin and Zinoviev came close to getting captured or killed in the weeks after the July Days (just to screw the Bolsheviks a little more).

Brusilov remaining at the helm of the Russian war effort after July Days is an interesting PoD. After all, Brusilov was much more sympathetic to revolutionary factions inside Russia than his successor, while he still held strong authority among the higher officer corps as well.

What if Russians remain on the defensive for the rest of the conflict, and the war in the East continues? The Murmansk railway is already operational from 1916 onwards, and using it to provide Entente supplies for starving Petrograd might well prove enough to keep the country at war until Germany is forced to capitulate.

I would enjoy very much reading a TL based on this premise!