In this, what would the French people mindset be either in a quick CP victory in WW1, or a CP victory in 1917/18.
French mindset after a Central Powers victory in WW1
- Thread starter Historyman 14
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Very hard to say without knowing how the peace treaty looks like. France/the French would react very differently to a peace treaty in which France pays a small amount of money to Germany or to a peace treaty that annexes Lorraine, takes over most French colonies and forces France to recognise Brittany as an independent country.
It was an example of an extremely harsh peace Germany could have made with France. Actualy, so harsh I just added it as an exaggeration. I realy doubt Germany would force an independent Brittany on France, but you sometimes see it in maps posted on this site, usualy maps with less realism (and lots of German or Brit wank scenarios).
Basicly Britany will remain French after the war (but if it didn't it most certainly would piss of the French).
All right.
For quick victory: A lot of money. Some colonies. Keep Alsace-Lorraine. Demilitarized.
Long victory: Germany Keep Alsace-Lorraine. Some money.
The peace is harsher after a quick victory? That surprises me. Usualy it is the other way around.
Oh. What would it look like the other way around? To me, a long victory, everyone is tried of fighting.
BlondieBC
Banned
Since most "quick" victory scenarios for the CP still involve at least two years of war, we are looking basically at only a peace after great losses for the CP in men. And losses of colonies to conquest. And the UK is still undefeated, so it is a negotiated peace. So one big item will be how the UK treats France. Does it throw France under the bus or negotiate more for French interests? We have potential for very, very poor UK/France relations.
Then we get to what does Germany get for the peace. Land in East only? Parts of France? Colonies? From Whom?
Did the Tsar fall? Did Russia go communist?
Lots of things we have to look at. You can have CP wins where the Tsar survives, France losses additional land in Europe, UK keeps France from being disarmed, and everyone prepares for round 2 with the same alliance. Or you can have one where UK throws France under bus, Tsar/Whites barely survive, and most/all Germany's gains come from French interests. And France starts to slide towards second tier status (Spain or Italy level). Or you can have a peace where Soviets come into power. Germany's gains are from Russia and Belgium colonies.
Lots of possibilities.
Then we get to what does Germany get for the peace. Land in East only? Parts of France? Colonies? From Whom?
Did the Tsar fall? Did Russia go communist?
Lots of things we have to look at. You can have CP wins where the Tsar survives, France losses additional land in Europe, UK keeps France from being disarmed, and everyone prepares for round 2 with the same alliance. Or you can have one where UK throws France under bus, Tsar/Whites barely survive, and most/all Germany's gains come from French interests. And France starts to slide towards second tier status (Spain or Italy level). Or you can have a peace where Soviets come into power. Germany's gains are from Russia and Belgium colonies.
Lots of possibilities.
long victory? Well based on everything I've personally seen here's my two cents on a harsh long victory.
I've heard conflicting things on exactly how much territory Germany would/could take from France ranging from at least some small border adjustments that cost France it's biggest and most important iron and coal deposits to the entirety of the rest of Lorraine. Either way some territorial changes that will severely gut France's industrial capacity while also strengthening Germany's.
Huge reparations. The sort that like Germany after Versailles put a serious damper on German economic activity and would for France, more so I'd say. Plus Germany (assuming it has the resources still) would have the stomach to enforce it. basically expect some huge number designed to be payed over the course of several decades.
As for colonies, well this is tricky. Some people say that the British would just keep any they got and get them out of any peace as a sort of compensation. I don't know exactly about that and personally I feel that in any typical CP victory scenario where all of continental Europe is dominated by the Central powers then Britain is really not going to be in a position to demand anything if only because of the serious financial issues it's gonna be suffering from which the German's will more or less not be.
So assuming Germany gets colonies expect Equatorial Africa, Benin, and djibouti. Africa is the farthest they can get anything so no Germany Indochina or any Pacific or Asian colonies.
Dismantling of all fortresses along the new Franco-German border. (Whatever that ultimately ends up being).
Forever renouncing any and all claims on Alsace-Lorraine (once again whatever that now ends up being) and recognizing it as forever being a part of Germany.
recognition of any final territorial arrangements Germany and her allies make in other theaters.
Also to add further info, recognize that France by 1917 was on the verge of total bankruptcy. American war loans were the only thing that propped it up and prevent a total catastrophe for it. So consider that France might have to also deal with the consequences of that on top of this as well.
And let's also work off the idea that the Germans can enforce these terms as well if they want IE occupy France and apply pressure just like during the Franco-Prussian war so no "Well if we hold out maybe that might ease up on us" mentality. This is a France that is utterly beaten and totally at the mercy of Germany whatever that implies.
So yeah. consider this a rough idea of what sort of Harsh peace France can expect.
so how are the French to react to this?
I've heard conflicting things on exactly how much territory Germany would/could take from France ranging from at least some small border adjustments that cost France it's biggest and most important iron and coal deposits to the entirety of the rest of Lorraine. Either way some territorial changes that will severely gut France's industrial capacity while also strengthening Germany's.
Huge reparations. The sort that like Germany after Versailles put a serious damper on German economic activity and would for France, more so I'd say. Plus Germany (assuming it has the resources still) would have the stomach to enforce it. basically expect some huge number designed to be payed over the course of several decades.
As for colonies, well this is tricky. Some people say that the British would just keep any they got and get them out of any peace as a sort of compensation. I don't know exactly about that and personally I feel that in any typical CP victory scenario where all of continental Europe is dominated by the Central powers then Britain is really not going to be in a position to demand anything if only because of the serious financial issues it's gonna be suffering from which the German's will more or less not be.
So assuming Germany gets colonies expect Equatorial Africa, Benin, and djibouti. Africa is the farthest they can get anything so no Germany Indochina or any Pacific or Asian colonies.
Dismantling of all fortresses along the new Franco-German border. (Whatever that ultimately ends up being).
Forever renouncing any and all claims on Alsace-Lorraine (once again whatever that now ends up being) and recognizing it as forever being a part of Germany.
recognition of any final territorial arrangements Germany and her allies make in other theaters.
Also to add further info, recognize that France by 1917 was on the verge of total bankruptcy. American war loans were the only thing that propped it up and prevent a total catastrophe for it. So consider that France might have to also deal with the consequences of that on top of this as well.
And let's also work off the idea that the Germans can enforce these terms as well if they want IE occupy France and apply pressure just like during the Franco-Prussian war so no "Well if we hold out maybe that might ease up on us" mentality. This is a France that is utterly beaten and totally at the mercy of Germany whatever that implies.
So yeah. consider this a rough idea of what sort of Harsh peace France can expect.
so how are the French to react to this?
LordKalvert
Banned
Using World War II as a guide: Quick victory- Germany imposed Vichy on France
Long Victory- allies partitioned Germany and Occupied Japan
Terms seem pretty harsh either way
Moderate terms come when either:
1) some other power or powers threaten to intervene (impossible here)
or
2) the war is essentially a draw (Crimean)
In any event, in a CP victory in WWI, I doubt if the French would have enough left that their opinion would matter much. That said, their opinion is likely to be one of acceptance of German domination until Austria and Germany have a falling out
In a quick war I think France will lose some territory, but I don't think Germany pushes past the Meuse in the north and the southern end of the Moselle in the south regardless of the length of the war. The French might also be forced to cede some colonies. Luxembourg will likely be annexed and southern Belgium might fall under German occupation up to the Meuse, but that depends in part on Britain's will to fight after the fall of France. France and Russia will take the brunt of it though, and the English will likely escape with their empire intact (though rather humiliated) and the treaty will likely allow the Brits to save face as well. This war is basically Franco-Prussian War II: The Prussianing, except that Russia also gets smacked around. Which, if history is any guide, will lead to an angry France with a strong movement to regain their lost territory and generally make the Germans pay. Depending on exactly how things go down there might also be a feeling that they hadn't lost the war yet, as there was in post-war Germany OTL. There could also be some anti-British sentiment. This leads to some interesting possibilities in France for the inter-war period, and IMO practically guarantees a second war.
In a long war France definitely loses the rest of Lorraine, Luxembourg is directly annexed, and southern Belgium is annexed or occupied. The Brits suffer more, but mostly in loss of life and prestige, with little territorial loss most likely as the Germans can't touch the RN. France has to pay war reparations and cede a lot of their colonial empire and totally disarm. There will likely be a similar setup to OTL where France is forced to accept war guilt. Although there were independence movements in Occitania, Normandy, and Brittany at the time, I don't see the Germans forcing France to release any of those, especially because those movements were so laughably small. Some of France might be annexed to a German client in Belgium. It's conceivable in this scenario that France could feel so thoroughly defeated that they accept these terms, in which case a second war is not a forgone conclusion (though, if say, the USSR still came to be and eventually attacked Germany the French might be happy to stick a proverbial knife between Germany's ribs and twist). However, I think more likely, the French will be incensed and there will be a second war, likely led by a revanchist government though it will probably be more or less a rehash of WWI unless the French go really nuts. In this scenario I think France is very vulnerable to falling to parallel Franco-Nazis and in both the long war and short war scenarios I think they are at risk from some form of Communist/Socialist overthrow.
TL;DR The French will be bitter and angry regardless.
In a long war France definitely loses the rest of Lorraine, Luxembourg is directly annexed, and southern Belgium is annexed or occupied. The Brits suffer more, but mostly in loss of life and prestige, with little territorial loss most likely as the Germans can't touch the RN. France has to pay war reparations and cede a lot of their colonial empire and totally disarm. There will likely be a similar setup to OTL where France is forced to accept war guilt. Although there were independence movements in Occitania, Normandy, and Brittany at the time, I don't see the Germans forcing France to release any of those, especially because those movements were so laughably small. Some of France might be annexed to a German client in Belgium. It's conceivable in this scenario that France could feel so thoroughly defeated that they accept these terms, in which case a second war is not a forgone conclusion (though, if say, the USSR still came to be and eventually attacked Germany the French might be happy to stick a proverbial knife between Germany's ribs and twist). However, I think more likely, the French will be incensed and there will be a second war, likely led by a revanchist government though it will probably be more or less a rehash of WWI unless the French go really nuts. In this scenario I think France is very vulnerable to falling to parallel Franco-Nazis and in both the long war and short war scenarios I think they are at risk from some form of Communist/Socialist overthrow.
TL;DR The French will be bitter and angry regardless.
I think you misjudge the French. When they get their butts kicked they'll roll over and show you their belly sure, but in a couple of years they'll forget the part where you walked through the triumphal arch unopposed and convince themselves that they had you dead to rights before the politicians screwed everything up. That's when they get dangerous. It's a pretty common pattern, especially in Europe.
LordKalvert
Banned
That may be true but the Germans are no pansies either and after two defeats, one with Russia and GB as allies, its hard to imagine what alliance they could hope for.
I think it would be time for France to throw in the towel like Spain and the Dutch.
Maybe the Austrians will have a falling out with the Germans but that doesn't hold much prospect either unless there's a German civil war between the Prussians and the Princes to go with it. Rather doubtful-
Most likely, the Germans don't let the Austrians have much, occupy enough of France to make them dependents and push back the Russians and enjoy hegemony in Europe
I think it would be time for France to throw in the towel like Spain and the Dutch.
Maybe the Austrians will have a falling out with the Germans but that doesn't hold much prospect either unless there's a German civil war between the Prussians and the Princes to go with it. Rather doubtful-
Most likely, the Germans don't let the Austrians have much, occupy enough of France to make them dependents and push back the Russians and enjoy hegemony in Europe
I've seen it mentioned on here before that one of the major German aims would be to annex areas of France along the German and (former) Belgian border that produce much of France's coal and iron. Looking at a resource map the largest area for coal production is just across the border from Belgium, so it seems feasible (though I would love more information on the subject.)
If so the question becomes, CAN France try again. If they lose their much of their industry and important resources could they actually build up to try another round with Germany. Not to mention the losses involved would probably place France at an extreme disadvantage even if the above is not true.
If so the question becomes, CAN France try again. If they lose their much of their industry and important resources could they actually build up to try another round with Germany. Not to mention the losses involved would probably place France at an extreme disadvantage even if the above is not true.
Honestly no. WW1 is going to be all or nothing for France. They lose then that's it for them. Best case scenario they remain a soft great power like Italy or Austria, mid case and most likely: strong regional power, worst case: they go the way of Spain or Sweden or numerous other former major powers and basically slink back into their little corner of the world to shift focus on domestic matters mostly.
point is, whatever happens, France will not ever be able to challenge Germany again.
BlondieBC
Banned
Depends on what happens in he east. Alone in 1914, France would have not been a match for Germany. Much less a match for Germany and A-H combined. If Russia recovers and still sees France as a useful ally, then we can get part two. If not, France will not be strong enough to challenge Germany, much less Germany and Allies.
I suspect the Germans would restrict themselves to annexing small border areas that contain critical natural resources - iron and/or coal. This would cripple future French war-making potential without placing an enormous occupation burden on the Germans.
The French response will be wild resentment, but lacking any ability to wage a war to redress the situation, it will be turned inward. I'd expect some serious social and political disturbances for some years. Especially given the fact that France was frequently pretty turbulent anyway. French politics will get pretty radical. France goes full-on Communist? I don't know enough to evaluate that possibility.
The French response will be wild resentment, but lacking any ability to wage a war to redress the situation, it will be turned inward. I'd expect some serious social and political disturbances for some years. Especially given the fact that France was frequently pretty turbulent anyway. French politics will get pretty radical. France goes full-on Communist? I don't know enough to evaluate that possibility.
Definateley the opposite. That's just not how psychology works, people don't generally deal with the sunk cost fallacy well, especially not the OTL leaders if these countries. By the end of the war it had basically become a game of who's social structures survive longest before we face bloody revolution in the street.