WI: Indonesian-Malaysian Confrontation turns into a major war?

Let's say that one fine night during the Indonesian-Malaysian Confrontation (i.e. Konfrontasi), Sukarno hallucinates that the Majapahit Emperor tells him that it is his Manifest Destiny to annex all of Singapore and Borneo, and the next morning, orders his generals to prepare a full-scale invasion of Singapore and Malaysian Borneo. How does it go down?


Here's some questions I've thought up; feel free to add more:

Does Indonesia have the capability, armed with their materiel bought from the Soviet Union, to break out along a wide front in Borneo and do an island-hopping campaign in the Singaporean southern islands before going full Overlord on Sentosa or even the mainland? Are the Commonwealth assets in Malaysia sufficient to repel an Indonesian assault?

Does Brunei have any hope of maintaining neutrality? Will the Philippines stick their noses into the Sabah situation in the hope of nabbing irredentist claims, and would this lead to the war going full Congo Crisis? Would a major naval conflict in the South China Sea affect US involvement in Vietnam and butterfly the Gulf of Tonkin incident?

Does this drive Singapore closer into the Malaysian camp if they fight and bleed together against a common foe, and reduce the probability of separation between the two, as in OTL? If Sukarno can pull off anything resembling a win, does he stay in power? If Indonesia loses worse than OTL, what implications are there for East Timor?

Will the UN Secretary-General, U Thant, being from Burma lend him any clout whatsoever? Does this torpedo any chance of ASEAN being formed?

Tom Colton said:

Let's say that one fine night during the Indonesian-Malaysian Confrontation (i.e. Konfrontasi), Sukarno hallucinates that the Majapahit Emperor tells him that it is his Manifest Destiny to annex all of Singapore and Borneo, and the next morning, orders his generals to prepare a full-scale invasion of Singapore and Malaysian Borneo. How does it go down?
Does Indonesia have the capability, armed with their materiel bought from the Soviet Union, to break out along a wide front in Borneo and do an island-hopping campaign in the Singaporean southern islands before going full Overlord on Sentosa or even the mainland? Are the Commonwealth assets in Malaysia sufficient to repel an Indonesian assault?
Does Brunei have any hope of maintaining neutrality? Will the Philippines stick their noses into the Sabah situation in the hope of nabbing irredentist claims, and would this lead to the war going full Congo Crisis? Would a major naval conflict in the South China Sea affect US involvement in Vietnam and butterfly the Gulf of Tonkin incident?
Does this drive Singapore closer into the Malaysian camp if they fight and bleed together against a common foe, and reduce the probability of separation between the two, as in OTL? If Sukarno can pull off anything resembling a win, does he stay in power? If Indonesia loses worse than OTL, what implications are there for East Timor?
Will the UN Secretary-General, U Thant, being from Burma lend him any clout whatsoever? Does this torpedo any chance of ASEAN being formed?

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Indonesia might take the Singaporean islands [including Singapore at most without interfering with Malaysia] and the new states of Sabah and Sarawak, provided the Commowealth does not provide support to Malaysia, but that's all. Once Australia [or the United States] interferes, Indonesia is doomed.
[Due to this situation, foreign interference is good because my country would be threatened with Indonesian attacks and occupation, but please don't let the British colonize Southeast Asia again.] The Commonwealth assets might not be adequate for defending Malaysia and Singapore, but foreign assistance in sufficient amounts helps.]
Brunei would have no hope, it would be threatened. [And, the Majapahit Empire didn't cover Borneo, so the Indonesian claims on Borneo are based on factors other than that.] Good thing if it goes under Malaysian control [swaps Malaysian for British control] and no Sharia law in the previous few months, but the petroleum industry might not be that developed. Philippines taking advantage is unlikely, especially with their American friendship. And, yes, the Gulf of Tonkin incident would be butterflied if there's a major war over the South China Sea. Otherwise, and even if the Gulf of Tonkin incident is butterflied, the Vietnam War is inevitable. It might lead to full scale war it serious enough.
Maybe, but Singaporean separatism was the consequence of British influence and a hinese majority on the island, so unlikely to be butterflied, but chance of that happening is reduced. If Sukarno wins, he stays longer, but political issues result in his collapse. If he loses, he loses territory to Malaysia [mostly] and Philippines [assuming Indonesia loses terrtory]. East Timor conflict is butterflied with less power for Indonesia.
Burmawon't support the Indonesians. ASEAN might not stand a chance to be founded.

Brunei could probably remain neutral so long as Britain did not get involved (which is entirely dependent upon when this conflict erupts).

If its the mid 1960s then Britain and the ANZACs will certainly become involved. Plus with Domino Theory and a Soviet-supplied dictatorship with Communist elements its likely the USA will at least give serious indirect support.

Brunei's oil and Singapore's trade importance mean the West will not let such lebensraum behaviour by a Soviet pseudo-ally slide.

Tom Colton said:

Does Indonesia have the capability, armed with their materiel bought from the Soviet Union, to break out along a wide front in Borneo and do an island-hopping campaign in the Singaporean southern islands before going full Overlord on Sentosa or even the mainland? Are the Commonwealth assets in Malaysia sufficient to repel an Indonesian assault?

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Going from memory they don't have anywhere near enough amphibious warfare assets, they could try using regular shipping as transports teamed with warships but that's a less than optimum solution. Especially once the modern jet aircraft and submarines, both conventional and nuclear, arrive in theatre and start targeting them. Since this is before the East of Suez decision in 1968 and final pull-out in 1971 the British Far East commands still have a fair number of assets in the region, it more than likely won't be enough to stop things by themselves but they'll help slow the Indonesians down and act as a tripwire to bring more troops in.

Does Brunei have any hope of maintaining neutrality?

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Until 1984 Brunei was still a British protectorate with the British Military Garrison Brunei in residence. Considering that the UK took part in the undeclared war with Malaysia against Indonesia along the borders in Borneo if the Indonesians tried to invade Brunei then the UK is bound to act and it isn't going to go well for the Indonesians. There's also the Anglo-Malayan Defence Agreement which was still in effect.

If it turns into a major war Indonesia is in real trouble, Australia, Britain and New Zealand already have a commitment of troops, aircraft and ships in Malaysia. The RAAF has a wing of fighters and bombers for starters and there is always a carrier within reach, so Indonesia will either have to destroy these in a Pearl Harbour-esque strike or have them pick Indonesia apart like a lobster dinner.

I see all of Papua becoming independent, although it might be a bit later than east Papuas, independence.

Tom Colton said:

Does Indonesia have the capability, armed with their materiel bought from the Soviet Union, to break out along a wide front in Borneo and do an island-hopping campaign in the Singaporean southern islands before going full Overlord on Sentosa or even the mainland?

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No, Indonesia doesnt have the resources to win vs Commonwealth forces. It needs Philippines or a western power to win.

Tom Colton said:

Are the Commonwealth assets in Malaysia sufficient to repel an Indonesian assault?

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Yes, they were in OTL

Tom Colton said:

Does Brunei have any hope of maintaining neutrality?

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Brunei is a British colony far from being independent. They can take advantage and rebel against the British though.

Tom Colton said:

Will the Philippines stick their noses into the Sabah situation in the hope of nabbing irredentist claims, and would this lead to the war going full Congo Crisis?

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Under any other administration Philippines would not even think of interfering. Philippines lending a hand is dependent on how far Marcos will go being its dictator. In OTL timeperiod, the Philipipines had a robust economy, a large army, sufficient navy and an air force superior to Commonwealth forces in the area.

Tom Colton said:

Would a major naval conflict in the South China Sea affect US involvement in Vietnam and butterfly the Gulf of Tonkin incident?

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I think this would affect the timeline. If US sees the Philippines doing military adventures, USA would probably let Philippines do the lifting in Vietnam instead of USA themselves. That would save a lot of American lives. A region under the influence/control of your pet (Philippines) is better than being under the influence/control of nations of other great powers(British/USSR/France) which you have little control of. Thus, letting you focus your strength elsewhere instead of SEA/Vietnam.

Tom Colton said:

Does this torpedo any chance of ASEAN being formed?

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I think this would torpedo the chance of an OTL form kind of ASEAN. ASEAN was formed very specific on non-interference and economy. You would probably see an ASEAN organization but highly different from OTL.

Riain said:

If it turns into a major war Indonesia is in real trouble, Australia, Britain and New Zealand already have a commitment of troops, aircraft and ships in Malaysia. The RAAF has a wing of fighters and bombers for starters and there is always a carrier within reach, so Indonesia will either have to destroy these in a Pearl Harbour-esque strike or have them pick Indonesia apart like a lobster dinner.

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That's a rather delicious analogy.

But in all seriousness Indonesia has severe problems in being able to project the force required to prevent Malaysia from forming and maintain their internal sea lines of communication.

La Rouge Beret said:

That's a rather delicious analogy.

But in all seriousness Indonesia has severe problems in being able to project the force required to prevent Malaysia from forming and maintain their internal sea lines of communication.

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Indonesia alone fighting vs commonwealth forces is a given loss with 1960s pod.

The issue I think would be , what happens if the eastern part didn't want to be part of Malaysia due to the cultural difference between the two and the commonwealth didn't like the results of the referendum which could have gone either way. There was also a Brunei revolt against the British overlords happening at the same time in otl.

Old world order of the British vs the new world order of USA/USSR. Kinda like Suez Crisis, except the Indonesians and Brunei were fighting this alone in otl.

Thanks for the assessments!

Is it then remotely possible for Sukarno to do an (alleged) 2014 Putin and fund and arm "separatists" in Brunei and Borneo? I'd imagine this would require a PoD further back, though.

And if he's dumb enough to try island-hopping to Singapore, how are the indigenous populations of the southern islands affected?

Namayan said:

There was also a Brunei revolt against the British overlords

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A "revolt" against the Sultan by a relatively small number of communists, backed by Indonesia but without widespread public support within Brunei itself.

And as for the possibility of the Philippines getting involved, bear in mind that they were on Sukarno's long-term shopping list -- which, IIRC, he'd publicly announced -- too...

Riain said:

If it turns into a major war Indonesia is in real trouble, Australia, Britain and New Zealand already have a commitment of troops, aircraft and ships in Malaysia. The RAAF has a wing of fighters and bombers for starters and there is always a carrier within reach, so Indonesia will either have to destroy these in a Pearl Harbour-esque strike or have them pick Indonesia apart like a lobster dinner.

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Besides the RNZAF bomber squadron referred to, there are also RAF bomber and fighter squadrons in the region at the time (Sinagpore based), one of which may or may not have accounted for an Indonesian C-130 IOTL.

Tom Colton said:

Thanks for the assessments!

Is it then remotely possible for Sukarno to do an (alleged) 2014 Putin and fund and arm "separatists" in Brunei and Borneo? I'd imagine this would require a PoD further back, though.

And if he's dumb enough to try island-hopping to Singapore, how are the indigenous populations of the southern islands affected?

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I don't understand what you mean by island hopping to Singapore, though. The nearest major Indonesian territory to Singapore is Batam, which is a half hour ferry ride. singapore's southern islands, between the main island and Batam are nothing more than specks of dirt. There's no island hopping necessary- either Indonesia has the sealift capability to launch an assault from Batam, or it doesn't. It's about 15-20km.

Flocculencio said:

I don't understand what you mean by island hopping to Singapore, though. The nearest major Indonesian territory to Singapore is Batam, which is a half hour ferry ride. singapore's southern islands, between the main island and Batam are nothing more than specks of dirt. There's no island hopping necessary- either Indonesia has the sealift capability to launch an assault from Batam, or it doesn't. It's about 15-20km.

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Ah, clearly I'm vastly overestimating the distances here. I raised the question mainly after listening to a talk about the indigenous populations of the smaller islands. Would the islands be assaulted by commandoes and paratroopers as a prelude to the short skip across the straits, nonetheless?

Interesting question.

Tom Colton said:

Ah, clearly I'm vastly overestimating the distances here. I raised the question mainly after listening to a talk about the indigenous populations of the smaller islands. Would the islands be assaulted by commandoes and paratroopers as a prelude to the short skip across the straits, nonetheless?

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Back in the 60s, the populations on the Southern Islands would be a few fishing villages on the slightly larger ones, and probably intermittently inhabited fish trap platforms on the smaller ones.

The Southern Islands really wouldn't play any part in an assault on Singapore (apart from the necessity of making sure your landing craft don't run aground on their shoals). It would be a waste of resources, really- those commandos would, presumably, be more effective in the assault on Singapore itself rather than holding some fishermen at gunpoint on an insignificant speck of sand.

Simreeve said:

A "revolt" against the Sultan by a relatively small number of communists, backed by Indonesia but without widespread public support within Brunei itself.

And as for the possibility of the Philippines getting involved, bear in mind that they were on Sukarno's long-term shopping list -- which, IIRC, he'd publicly announced -- too...

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Marcos has the same shopping list. Dictators are always ambitious aka stalin and hitler. However, Indonesia ain't as armed and advanced as Philippines in the 60s.

Nor would anyone be stupid enough to invade the Philippines since your are not only dealing with a hi tech armed force but have to deal with the Americans as well.

The issue I believe is not if we can replicate otl and let Indonesia let do it solo and win vs the commonwealth which is ASB, but have a situation wherein the referendum favors not unifying Sarawak and Sabah with Malaya. In such a situation, philippines would definitely interfere and Indonesia would have the moral high ground vs Malaya.

There are more advantages in unifying with philippines in the 60s than Singapore, Indonesia or Malaya. It is richer, more politically stable, well defended in otl 60s. One of the differences between uniting with either Indonesia or Malaya or philippines is which great power has influence over them.