AHC WI Higher Oil prices from 1950s

In otl the price of oil seems to me to have been absurdly low until the 'oil shocks' of the 1970s.

Had World prices been higher how much damage would be done to the Western Economies?

How different with the Auto industry have been?

What else?

How could this have happened?
 
Without the era of cheap petrol, the 1950s would be quite different in urban planning. Buss would not be seen as cost effective, hence streetcars would not only be kept, but expanded to serve newly built suburbs. meanwhile the benefits of railroads, especially electric railroads would become apparent, hence the decline in rail travel wouldn't be as severe.
 
Cutting supply is going to be difficult. Although a massive Royalist vs Islamist civil war in both Saudi and Iran is theoretically possible. It's hard to see such continuing very long, though. One would think one side or the other would win.

Having India and China start growing sooner could massively up the demand for oil earlier. For that, you'd need to get rid of the Socialists in both places. However a KMT victory in China would probably require a pre-War PoD (like getting rid of Chiang); and to get rid of the Fabian Socialism in India probably means getting rid of Gandhi and Nehru.

Hmmm... WITHOUT getting rid of those three...

People in Britain become terrified at the prospect of German bombing (read Neville Shute's prewar stuff, for instance, as an example of how effective aerial bombardment was going to be). So backup aircraft plants (airframes and engines) are built in India, also some work with ship yards. Thus the Indian airforce has local production, and when it's obvious that the German raids aren't nearly as effective as people were afraid they were going to be, those Indian Hurricanes (or whatever is built there) are used (partly) to equip the Indian Airforce. More planes are available in North Africa, more in Southeast Asia. Indian troops and airforce hold Malaya and prevent the Japanese from taking Thailand and Burma. The Burma road survives - and the US builds up the Burman-Yunan rail line. These mean massively more supplies reach Chiang - enough more that he actually uses some against the Japanese. [Unfair, I know, still.] MacArthur is sent to China, and Stillwell to Australia. Chinese units loyal to Chiang are provided with lots of equipment and training, and he ends up the war in complete charge.

Indian pride in their war fighting and industrial prowess counters the pacifism of Gandhi and somewhat discredits his whole 'simple, self-sufficiency' philosophy.

Instead, India looks to build her own industry and exports, like OTL South Korea and Japan did. Instead of wearing homespun, Indian leaders wear locally produced machine spun/woven cotton (there's still the boycott of Lancashire cotton products).

Chiang, seeing the rising economic and military power to his south, realizes HE has to introduce reforms. China starts developing - far more slowly than India or e.g. Japan, but opening slowly (if not, so much, to foreigners, at least to local entrepreneurs).

By 1960, oil consumption in India and China, together, matches that of the US (still a tiny fraction per capita, of course), and the economies are still growing.

Prices of oil start rising, slowly, as the world demand rises.

By 1970, every Indian family has at least a motorcycle, many have a car, and the same is true in Chinese cities. Even in the Chinese countryside, every village has a truck or two.
 
There is much more demand for alternative energy. Money is poured into renewables such as solar and wind a lot sooner meaning the tech is much farther along by the current day. You may also have significantly more nuclear power than we do today.

As far as Auto's battery tech is a lot farther along and the industry put out its first EV a lot sooner. Electric cars are probably more common than gas ones.
 
Well if you can make the Coup in Iran blow up into something that would raise prices for a while, especially if it swept over into Iraq and SA, and resulted in damaged wells.

There is much more demand for alternative energy. Money is poured into renewables such as solar and wind a lot sooner meaning the tech is much farther along by the current day. You may also have significantly more nuclear power than we do today.

As far as Auto's battery tech is a lot farther along and the industry put out its first EV a lot sooner. Electric cars are probably more common than gas ones.
You're forgetting LNG, that's more immediately usable.
 
Perhaps having an Oil Embargo take place in 1948 or 1956 would do the trick.

But the US has oil. The crunch will come in the 1970s when Texas oil peaks and collapses (which, btw, undid an entire class of well-to-do Texans) and the Arabs simultaneously twist the screws.

Maybe you could do something to seriously hasten oil production, burning out the US oil industry earlier. Some may kneejerk to some war, but bear in mind a war massive enough to consume a lot of oil is also one where the civilians are rationing oil to make up for it.

It's probable too late, but have oil seen as a strategic resource too valuable to trade.

But that would take oil not being plentiful and cheap. In the 50s, that'd be somewhat like having water seen as too valuable to trade.
 
Can't do it in the 1950s plausibly. Between the election of Eisenhower, and actual economic Conservatives relegated to a fringe, there's no way to make it work in a Cold War setting. It would require time travel and multiple parties tampering with the timeline with that result a side effect to make it work.

The 1930s, on the other hand, is much easier. Simply have the all the big oil companies band together and ant take advantage of going off the Gold Standard to jack oil prices as high as possible to destroy the economic basis of the New Deal.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Wietze nailed it here:
true, however what would happen if some of the oil producing areas became politically inaccessible?

A PoD I'd been toying with was World War 2 ending with the Soviets in full control of the northern Gulf states (Iran, Iraq, Kuwait). This makes their oil politically inaccessible, and increases the risk premium on Saudi Arabian and southern Gulf oil, discouraging buildup of productive capacity there. From the 1940s through 1950s, the US is not going to follow the strategy of OTL of building allied dependence on Middle East oil.
 
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