The Tunguska meteor falls 8 hours earlier: London obliterated in 1908

Anthony Appleyard · Apr 30, 2006

See this link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tunguska_event

OTL: At 7.17 am on 30 June 1908 a small comet impacted at 60°55′N 101°57′E, near the Podkamennaya (Stony) Tunguska River in what is now Evenkia, Siberia, and obliterated a big area of pine forest and killed some reindeer.

AOL: At about 22.30 pm on 29 June 1908 a small comet impacted at 50°55′N 0°E, in England, and obliterated London.

Tony Williams · Apr 30, 2006

A lot of impressive architecture would be lost...

More significantly, I suspect that the blow to national confidence, and the cost of rebuilding, could have been enough to put an abrupt halt to the naval build-up and might conceivably have kept the UK out of WW1.

Tony Williams: Military gun and ammunition website and discussion forum

birdy · Apr 30, 2006

how much of London would have actually been destroyed?

maybe London wouldnt be rebuilt, the capital might become Birmingham or Edinbugh or something,

MrP · Apr 30, 2006

birdie said:
how much of London would have actually been destroyed?

An excellent question. We have an image of the devastating power of nukes because WWII-era Japanese civilian dwellings were rather less sturdy than what existed in Dresden or London at the time. See the effects of the Kanto Earthquake, too. I can see a fair bit of London surviving.

However, I agree with Tony. No matter precisely how bad the damage is, it will be so bad that it could well postpone WWI. I'd also note London's position as a hub of commerce, and the potential effects on international trade.

Albidoom · Apr 30, 2006

Well, yes, stone buildings are of course sturdier than wooden ones, but the blast is also quite likely to blast through the roofs (while the walls may as well keep standing there would quite some debris shmashing around)
And for the energy: According to the guesses of the height and destructive power compared to Hiroshima'45 (about 15 kilotons detonated at about 1600 feet altitude) the Tunguska event is ranging from about the same strenght to up to ten times of it.

birdy · Apr 30, 2006

If its never rebuilt, the ruins of London could be a pretty amazing (and spooky) site.

Wonder how many Londoners might actually survive- would people in the Underground (it was open back then) survive the impact,

would the ground zero actually be the centre, (the City and Westminister)
does it matter?

Darkest · Apr 30, 2006

Very interesting effects on the European stage.

Germany would finally have an opportunity to become a leading naval power with Britain. In the economical fall-out, Germany very well may build a fleet to rival that of Britain's.

In the Agadir crisis, Germany seizes the Middle Congo (modern Republic of the Congo) after bullying the French.

The Titanic is never built.

Its 1914. Germany invades France through Belgium. The United Kingdom is still weak after the London Apocalypse. Germany takes Paris and eventually all of France, and then turns on Russia. After a few heavy losses, Russia decides to sue for peace, giving up Poland, Lithuania, and Courland, but doesn't get jipped like they did in the Brest-Litovsk Treaty.

Austria-Hungary, Ottoman Empire, Bulgaria, and Italy all get territorial increases. Germany's colonies overseas grow doublefold when they steal French colonies in Africa and India.

Thande · Apr 30, 2006

Interestingly, this very scenario was explored in one of the RI Christmas Lectures series a few years ago, and the lecturer in question showed a Tunguska event superimposed on a map of London (hitting the exact centre, improbably but for simplicity). IIRC, I think it was something like complete obliteration to a five-mile radius and then extreme damage to a further fifteen mile radius outside that.

NapoleonXIV · Apr 30, 2006

The sciences of astronomy and astronautics are advanced by 50, possibly 100 years. Konstantin Tsiolkovsky becomes the world famous head of the largest scientific/industrial project before or since to build a meteoric/cometary detection and deflection system.

This is 1908. We have no Titanic to shake our faith in the power of science and industry, nor any WWI to make us question it's utility. There would be an initial period when the world would be stunned to immobility but it would last less than a year as the nature of the disaster became clear, then every nation on Earth would have little further concern.

I don't think they would simply shrug at the improbablilty of another strike. Scientists and government officials might realize it to be nearly impossible, but the general public is never fatalistic about their own lives and would demand that something be done.

I think this butterflies away WWI entirely. It would be recognized very quickly that the effort to stop other meteors is naturally international and the differences between nations would seem petty at best.

Doctor What · Apr 30, 2006

The energy of the blast was later estimated to be between 10 and 15 megaton TNT.

A ten megaton explosion will have the following effects:

Thermal radiation radius (3rd degree burns) 30 kilometres
Air blast radius (widespread destruction) 15.4 kilometres
Air blast radius (near-total fatalities) 5.9 kilometres
Ionizing radiation radius (500 rem) 4.8 kilometres
Fireball duration 12.7 seconds
Fireball radius (minimum) 1.1 kilometres
Fireball radius (airburst) 1.3 kilometres
Fireball radius (ground-contact airburst) 1.8 kilometres

Anybody have a google map of London?

Thande · Apr 30, 2006

Map of London and environs in 1900 (close enough?) Scale is in miles, at the bottom.

CalBear · Apr 30, 2006

Regarding the power of the detonation - Most sources quote anywhere of 15-20 MEGATONS up to as high as 40 MEGATONS. Hiroshima was 15-20 KILOTONS.

Kiloton (Kt)- 1,000 tons
Megaton (Mt) -1,000,000 tons

The Tunguska Event was anywhere from 1,000 to 2,000 more powerful than Hiroshima. It probably detonated at 30 - 60K FT (1-2 km). 40Mt or larger weapons were only tested once. Even hardened Soviet designers were scared shitless by the ABOVE GROUND detonation's effect on the Earth's CRUST (it apparently left a dent).

As an example, a 20Kt weapon (aka Hiroshima bomb) will have 6 PSI of overpressure at about 0.9 miles (1.44 km) and a ONE megaton bomb will have the same power 3.2 miles (5.1 km). Multiply that by 15-40 times for Tunguska. 6 PSI will knock most building over like a house of cards.

The Federation of American Scientists has a very interesting blast effect simulator on their webside here: http://www.fas.org/main/content.jsp?formAction=297&contentId=367

What happens if London is unlucky? A decent portion of Southern England is devestated (figure more or less total destruction by fire inside a 40 mile(64 km) circle, significant devestation over a somewhat larger area. The Government of the British Empire is decapitated, any member of the Royal family within a 20 - 25 mile radius of the IP is dead. The center of commerce for the world at the time disappears.

Talk about butterflies! Forget about WW I, start to figure out the short - medium impact on Humanity. Religions (start of the End Days?), politics (What happens to the Empire? The Raj? Scotland? Ireland?), economies (Lloyds of London, along with most of rest major underwriters, is GONE, along with all the records. Worldwide Depression sound like fun?).

This would have a greater impact on the Human Race than a decent percentage of the ASB threads. Interesting part is that this could have happened. Scary part is it WILL happen sooner or later, just a matter of when & where.

BTW: The famous Meteor Crater in Arizona was the result of a 3.6Mt event (of course that one hit the ground, which lessens the effect considerably).

DominusNovus · Apr 30, 2006

Just out of curiosity, are those two times (the real impact and the ATL impact) both GMT?

MrP · Apr 30, 2006

CalBear said:
Regarding the power of the detonation - Most sources quote anywhere of 15-20 MEGATONS up to as high as 40 MEGATONS. Hiroshima was 15-20 KILOTONS.

Kiloton (Kt)- 1,000 tons
Megaton (Mt) -1,000,000 tons

*makes a note to remember to read things more carefully*

Darkest · Apr 30, 2006

Nevermind about my proposal. CalBear is right... the devestation would be over such a wide area. Check out that website he posted. Pretty crazy stuff.

This would make for a fun timeline.

BTW: I'm having trouble getting the exact blast radius of the Tunguska. Comparing the map here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Tunguska04.jpg

Also, just because London got hit by an asteroid, doesn't mean that wars or off. The romantic-nationalist movement was not quite as strong, but still very energetic even in 1908.

How's my map?

Romulus Augustulus · Apr 30, 2006

CalBear said:
Regarding the power of the detonation - Most sources quote anywhere of 15-20 MEGATONS up to as high as 40 MEGATONS. Hiroshima was 15-20 KILOTONS.

Kiloton (Kt)- 1,000 tons
Megaton (Mt) -1,000,000 tons

The Tunguska Event was anywhere from 1,000 to 2,000 more powerful than Hiroshima. It probably detonated at 30 - 60K FT (1-2 km). 40Mt or larger weapons were only tested once. Even hardened Soviet designers were scared shitless by the ABOVE GROUND detonation's effect on the Earth's CRUST (it apparently left a dent).

As an example, a 20Kt weapon (aka Hiroshima bomb) will have 6 PSI of overpressure at about 0.9 miles (1.44 km) and a ONE megaton bomb will have the same power 3.2 miles (5.1 km). Multiply that by 15-40 times for Tunguska. 6 PSI will knock most building over like a house of cards.

The Federation of American Scientists has a very interesting blast effect simulator on their webside here: http://www.fas.org/main/content.jsp?formAction=297&contentId=367

What happens if London is unlucky? A decent portion of Southern England is devestated (figure more or less total destruction by fire inside a 40 mile(64 km) circle, significant devestation over a somewhat larger area. The Government of the British Empire is decapitated, any member of the Royal family within a 20 - 25 mile radius of the IP is dead. The center of commerce for the world at the time disappears.

Talk about butterflies! Forget about WW I, start to figure out the short - medium impact on Humanity. Religions (start of the End Days?), politics (What happens to the Empire? The Raj? Scotland? Ireland?), economies (Lloyds of London, along with most of rest major underwriters, is GONE, along with all the records. Worldwide Depression sound like fun?).

This would have a greater impact on the Human Race than a decent percentage of the ASB threads. Interesting part is that this could have happened. Scary part is it WILL happen sooner or later, just a matter of when & where.

BTW: The famous Meteor Crater in Arizona was the result of a 3.6Mt event (of course that one hit the ground, which lessens the effect considerably).

IIRC, the meteor split apart in midair...it resulted in a sort of "shotgun effect."

Anyway, though, the area affected by the blast was butterfly-shaped, and Soviet experiments in the 1960s yielded the same result.

AMBOMB · Apr 30, 2006

1. Earth rotates east to west, not west to east.
2. London is south of the point over which the Tunguska meteorite exploded.
3. Earth orbits the sun at a speed of approximately 66,705 mph, which means it was over 500,000 miles from the point the meteorite hit 8 hours earlier. So, the meteorite would've missed it entirely.

Darkest · Apr 30, 2006

True, it is quite improbable for the Tunguska meteor to hit London. It's like trying to hit a certain car roaring down the highway with a baseball, a football field away.

But what if it DID happen?

We have to switch our view on this topic from A) the Tunguska meteor collided earlier to B) the Tunguska meteor collided with London.

Romulus Augustulus · Apr 30, 2006

Darkest90 said:
True, it is quite improbable for the Tunguska meteor to hit London. It's like trying to hit a certain car roaring down the highway with a baseball, a football field away.

But what if it DID happen?

We have to switch our view on this topic from A) the Tunguska meteor collided earlier to B) the Tunguska meteor collided with London.

How's about multiple meteors (or comets, or whatever...) colliding with a few major European capitals besides London?

Granted, that's kind of improbable (I mean, nine fragments, and they all hit major cities!?) so let's screw that.

What would the effects be if a major population concentration wasn't destroyed, that is, there was devastation in rural areas, but it was still accessible enough for study? This could have an effect on the 20th century's technological and scientific development, not to mention economic...

Maybe the humans, paranoid about future asteroid impacts, go into space earlier to see if they can prevent any more big pebbles from God or whomever or whatever?

CalBear · Apr 30, 2006

Romulus Augustulus said:
How's about multiple meteors (or comets, or whatever...) colliding with a few major European capitals besides London?

Granted, that's kind of improbable (I mean, nine fragments, and they all hit major cities!?) so let's screw that.

What would the effects be if a major population concentration wasn't destroyed, that is, there was devastation in rural areas, but it was still accessible enough for study? This could have an effect on the 20th century's technological and scientific development, not to mention economic...

Maybe the humans, paranoid about future asteroid impacts, go into space earlier to see if they can prevent any more big pebbles from God or whomever or whatever?

Hey, it worked in Armegeddon! Terrible movie, but one of the great movie lines of all time - "NASA's budget let's us examine about 3% of the sky every year, and, all due respect Mr. President, it's a BIG-ASS sky!"

Gotta love it!