No Seljuk
- Thread starter Hermanubis
- Start date
Hermanubis said:
Depends on whether or not someone completely unknown takes his place - if yes, history proceeds relatively unchanged, although subtle specifics (different raid locations, etc) by the time of Manzikert the battle could have been fought at different place, and with different leaders, possibly leading to different outcome as well. That, however, is up to the butterflies - and the consequences of different Manzikert outcome could have been anything from very minor (it just happens in a different battle a year or two later, with maybe a downfall of an unpopular Emperor due to large defeat of one of his generals or the Emperor himself), to very major (the battle does not happen; Turk incursions into Anatolia are stopped - or Turks run over Anatolia and do not stop until they are well in the Balkans, with no Byzantine resurgence in between). Also, the Crusades would have been very different in TTL if there are major changes - if no Byzantine call for help, the Crusades might have taken a maritime course instead, and struck against North Africa, Egypt, and maybe Palestine, but not against Syria and Antioch.
Anyone remember my "Great North African Crusade" TL, which was featured in the AH.com episode "Coups, Almoravids, and Plasma Rifles Oh My"?
It's baaaaaack...
Timeline
POD: In 1037, the Seljuks are defeated by the Ghaznavids and thus are contained in Central Asia.
Fatimids Step up their Mediterranean Wars (10??)-
Fatimid Raid on Rome (10??)-
Crusade Proclaimed (10??)-The new Pope, (name) proclaims a Crusade to avenge the Fatimid atrocities. Large #s of Italian ship-owners get involved, and the Italians will be the leaders of the Crusade. Illyrians and Occitans play a major role as well—these three groups are more familiar with Arab-Islamic culture and ways than the Franks and Normans of OTL. The Italian merchant princes and mercenaries, with access to German iron, Alpine silver and Illyrian, French and Lombard timber, are able to build and fund large fleets and hire huge quantities of professional soldiers (in addition to the huge # of volunteers)--Norman and German knights and Alpine crossbowmen. Due to the fact that they own the ships, the Crusades remain under Italian control.
Sicily Invaded (10??)-Sicily is ruled by the Kalbid dynasty, which is nominally a vassal of the Fatimids. In OTL, they collapsed in 1052, paving the way for the 1092 seizure of the island by the Normans. The Crusaders, launching from Sardinia (whose local nobles, the iudikes, despite Fatimid subversion efforts, joined the Crusaders) and from southern Italy, land at several sites at the same time (Italian maritime skill). The conquest of Sicily goes rather well due to Italian knowledge of supply management, siege warfare, amphibious operations, and combined-arms warfare. The loss of Sicily shocks the Fatimids into realizing that they’ve unleashed something VERY nasty.
War of the Ships (10??-10??)-Massive naval conflict between Fatimids and the West in the Mediterranean. Malta and the Balearics are the focus of this warfare, and despite large losses, the Crusaders win here too. The Islamic dominance of the oceans is broken after many long centuries.
Abbasid Invasion of Egypt (10??)-
Crusader Landings in North Africa (10??)-
Fall of Tunis (10??)-
Fall of Madhia (10??)-The fall of the ancient Fatimid capital (though the government had long since moved to Cairo) is a tremendous psychological shock to the Fatimids.
Fall of Cairo (10??)-The Persian/Shi’ite Buyid rulers of Baghdad and Mesopotamia stir and march into the Levant and Egypt to drive the Fatimids back into Africa. The bulk of the Fatimid armies are in the West fighting the Crusaders, so this is mostly a mop-up. For a brief time, there is a Buyid-Shi’a hegemon controlling Egypt, Syria, the Holy Land, and Mesopotamia.
Crusader Mop-Up of the Fatimids (10??-10??)-The Crusaders mop up the surviving forces of the Fatimids and their various nomadic and desert allies. This campaign is longer and bloodier b/c the Fatimids are more experienced in desert fighting than the Crusaders. The Europeans, however, recruit many Berbers as mercenaries—the Berbers are all too happy to see the Arab occupiers put down. Recalcitrant tribes have their trade routes cut off by the Crusaders and are eventually forced to the bargaining table—though they aren’t starved out, the cutting-off of trade hurts them enough (lords cannot reward their retainers, no markets for salt, gold, and slaves, no metals for weaponry, etc). After the last Fatimid forces are obliterated, the desert chieftains begin to make peace with the “infidels.” Things don’t go swimmingly…
Byzantine Assault on Buyids (10??)-The Byzantines under Constantine IX strike down into the Holy Land and Mesopotamia. The largely-pagan Nabati, Assassins, and others rise up against the Buyids; the Byzantine-fearing Nestorian Christians and Abbasids (who’re under the thumb of the Buyids) are the last to join the Byzantine invasion. The Buyids are besieged in Baghdad when financial problems force the Byzantines to withdraw, and the local factions finish the dynasty off. The Abbasid Caliph is restored, but…
Nabatean Kingdom Proclaimed (10??)-
Almoravid Intervention (10??)-They never go on to intervene in the Muslim-Christian war in Spain because of the massive “infidel” incursion and turn west across Morocco to attack the Crusaders in present-day Algeria and Tunisia. The Almoravid military organization, according to Wikipedia: “Their main force was infantry, armed with javelins in the front ranks and pikes behind, formed into a phalanx and supported by camelmen and horsemen on the flanks.” Several of the westernmost Crusading armies are mauled by the Almoravids, who had waited and husbanded their strength while the “infidel” Crusaders wiped the floor with the “heretic” Fatimids. However, the Almoravids move too quickly—they saw desert chief after desert chief making submission to the new “infidel” lords of the coasts and decided to act before they’re blockaded into their little Saharan corner.
Almoravid Siege of Oran-This Stalingrad-esque battle breaks the power of the Almoravids for a generation.
The Age of Missions (10??-12??)-The Church pours huge quantities of money into proselytizing among the Muslim Arabs, pagan Tauregs and black Africans on the southern end of the trade routes, and, occasionally, among the few surviving Donatist Christians. Conversions are entirely voluntary (at first), though some Muslims convert for political reasons.
Contact Re-Establishing with Ethiopia and the Nubian Kingdoms (????)-Since Christianity, not Islam, is spreading down along the trans-Saharan trade routes, eventually the Western Christians will encounter the Christian kingdom of Ethiopia/Axum and the various black Christian states of Nubia (northern Sudan). These people are Monophysite, so this makes things interesting—the Catholic Church is proseyltizing everyone, there are some leftover Donatists, and on the other side of Islamic Egypt, there’re Monophysites.
It's baaaaaack...
Timeline
POD: In 1037, the Seljuks are defeated by the Ghaznavids and thus are contained in Central Asia.
Fatimids Step up their Mediterranean Wars (10??)-
Fatimid Raid on Rome (10??)-
Crusade Proclaimed (10??)-The new Pope, (name) proclaims a Crusade to avenge the Fatimid atrocities. Large #s of Italian ship-owners get involved, and the Italians will be the leaders of the Crusade. Illyrians and Occitans play a major role as well—these three groups are more familiar with Arab-Islamic culture and ways than the Franks and Normans of OTL. The Italian merchant princes and mercenaries, with access to German iron, Alpine silver and Illyrian, French and Lombard timber, are able to build and fund large fleets and hire huge quantities of professional soldiers (in addition to the huge # of volunteers)--Norman and German knights and Alpine crossbowmen. Due to the fact that they own the ships, the Crusades remain under Italian control.
Sicily Invaded (10??)-Sicily is ruled by the Kalbid dynasty, which is nominally a vassal of the Fatimids. In OTL, they collapsed in 1052, paving the way for the 1092 seizure of the island by the Normans. The Crusaders, launching from Sardinia (whose local nobles, the iudikes, despite Fatimid subversion efforts, joined the Crusaders) and from southern Italy, land at several sites at the same time (Italian maritime skill). The conquest of Sicily goes rather well due to Italian knowledge of supply management, siege warfare, amphibious operations, and combined-arms warfare. The loss of Sicily shocks the Fatimids into realizing that they’ve unleashed something VERY nasty.
War of the Ships (10??-10??)-Massive naval conflict between Fatimids and the West in the Mediterranean. Malta and the Balearics are the focus of this warfare, and despite large losses, the Crusaders win here too. The Islamic dominance of the oceans is broken after many long centuries.
Abbasid Invasion of Egypt (10??)-
Crusader Landings in North Africa (10??)-
Fall of Tunis (10??)-
Fall of Madhia (10??)-The fall of the ancient Fatimid capital (though the government had long since moved to Cairo) is a tremendous psychological shock to the Fatimids.
Fall of Cairo (10??)-The Persian/Shi’ite Buyid rulers of Baghdad and Mesopotamia stir and march into the Levant and Egypt to drive the Fatimids back into Africa. The bulk of the Fatimid armies are in the West fighting the Crusaders, so this is mostly a mop-up. For a brief time, there is a Buyid-Shi’a hegemon controlling Egypt, Syria, the Holy Land, and Mesopotamia.
Crusader Mop-Up of the Fatimids (10??-10??)-The Crusaders mop up the surviving forces of the Fatimids and their various nomadic and desert allies. This campaign is longer and bloodier b/c the Fatimids are more experienced in desert fighting than the Crusaders. The Europeans, however, recruit many Berbers as mercenaries—the Berbers are all too happy to see the Arab occupiers put down. Recalcitrant tribes have their trade routes cut off by the Crusaders and are eventually forced to the bargaining table—though they aren’t starved out, the cutting-off of trade hurts them enough (lords cannot reward their retainers, no markets for salt, gold, and slaves, no metals for weaponry, etc). After the last Fatimid forces are obliterated, the desert chieftains begin to make peace with the “infidels.” Things don’t go swimmingly…
Byzantine Assault on Buyids (10??)-The Byzantines under Constantine IX strike down into the Holy Land and Mesopotamia. The largely-pagan Nabati, Assassins, and others rise up against the Buyids; the Byzantine-fearing Nestorian Christians and Abbasids (who’re under the thumb of the Buyids) are the last to join the Byzantine invasion. The Buyids are besieged in Baghdad when financial problems force the Byzantines to withdraw, and the local factions finish the dynasty off. The Abbasid Caliph is restored, but…
Nabatean Kingdom Proclaimed (10??)-
Almoravid Intervention (10??)-They never go on to intervene in the Muslim-Christian war in Spain because of the massive “infidel” incursion and turn west across Morocco to attack the Crusaders in present-day Algeria and Tunisia. The Almoravid military organization, according to Wikipedia: “Their main force was infantry, armed with javelins in the front ranks and pikes behind, formed into a phalanx and supported by camelmen and horsemen on the flanks.” Several of the westernmost Crusading armies are mauled by the Almoravids, who had waited and husbanded their strength while the “infidel” Crusaders wiped the floor with the “heretic” Fatimids. However, the Almoravids move too quickly—they saw desert chief after desert chief making submission to the new “infidel” lords of the coasts and decided to act before they’re blockaded into their little Saharan corner.
Almoravid Siege of Oran-This Stalingrad-esque battle breaks the power of the Almoravids for a generation.
The Age of Missions (10??-12??)-The Church pours huge quantities of money into proselytizing among the Muslim Arabs, pagan Tauregs and black Africans on the southern end of the trade routes, and, occasionally, among the few surviving Donatist Christians. Conversions are entirely voluntary (at first), though some Muslims convert for political reasons.
Contact Re-Establishing with Ethiopia and the Nubian Kingdoms (????)-Since Christianity, not Islam, is spreading down along the trans-Saharan trade routes, eventually the Western Christians will encounter the Christian kingdom of Ethiopia/Axum and the various black Christian states of Nubia (northern Sudan). These people are Monophysite, so this makes things interesting—the Catholic Church is proseyltizing everyone, there are some leftover Donatists, and on the other side of Islamic Egypt, there’re Monophysites.
There's decent historical evidence that without the Seljuks, the Ottomans wouldn't even exist, let alone come to power. So even though I'm usually reluctant to espouse the Great Man theory of history, this is one case where I think that everything from Venice to Samarkand would look very different.
Hermanubis said:Yes, I do. Was a really nice TL
Thanks. No Seljuk Turks would have roughly the same effect as keeping the Seljuks bottled up north of Persia.