Japanese-Korean Commonwealth

hi their
this is my attempt at a hypothetical that's always interested me

Quote from Wikipedia:

The last king of Baekje, Uija, formed an alliance with Japan and made Prince Buyeo Pung and King Zenko stay there as their hostages. In 660, Baekje fell when it was attacked by Silla and the Tang Dynasty China. Former generals of Baekje, including Gwisil Boksin, asked Japan to return Prince Buyeo Pung and to provide military aid. In 663, Japan, supporting Baekje, was defeated by the allied forces of Tang dynasty China and Silla in Korean Peninsula (the Battle of Baekgang), and the restoration of Baekje ended up in failure.

This event is the earliest point i could see this happening, but something has always made me curious.

1: could a dual emperor-ship (like the polish-lithuanian one in europe) between these nations (as a deterrent against an expansionist china as a possible reasoning) work
2: if this could happen, how would the geopolitical landscape be changed.
3: if not is their any way point in time it could?

Thank you for listening to my curiosity questions
 
hi their
this is my attempt at a hypothetical that's always interested me

Welcome to AH.com. Since you're new here, I'll try to keep it short.

Quote from Wikipedia:

-quote-

This event is the earliest point i could see this happening, but something has always made me curious.

1: could a dual emperor-ship (like the polish-lithuanian one in europe) between these nations (as a deterrent against an expansionist china as a possible reasoning) work
2: if this could happen, how would the geopolitical landscape be changed.
3: if not is their any way point in time it could?

Thank you for listening to my curiosity questions

A dual system would only have worked before 668 if Baekje, and not Silla, had unified the peninsula, as Gaya remained relatively weak, while relations between Silla and Japan had remained antagonistic since the 2nd century or so due to frequent wokou (waegu) raids. While Baekje briefly managed to assert influence over Gaya and Silla in the mid-4th century, its hegemony was broken after Goguryeo headed south, advancing to the Han River in 396 and conquering half of Baekje's territory in 475, despite a southern alliance since 433 in order to counter their northern neighbor. Although Baekje counterattacked with Silla, recovering the Han River valley in 551, Silla suddenly attacked and seized the area, as Goguryeo temporarily allied with Silla in order to antagonize relations between the two. As a result, Goguryeo's interference since the 4th century would have prevented Baekje from conquering its southern neighbors, while if Goguryeo had unified the peninsula, it would have absorbed Japan altogether instead of attempting more equal relations.

After 668, closer ties become much more unlikely, as Korea continued to view the Japanese as "barbarians" due to wokou raids from the 13th to 16th centuries. Although stable diplomatic relations were formed after Joseon was established in 1592, Korea then established a "higher" position soon after the Imjin War, as the invasion essentially breached protocol. In addition, the two countries never considered significant integration, as Japan's relative isolation generally made it unwilling to consider potential foreign influences.

It's also worth noting that China never invaded the peninsula after 676, after the Tang was repulsed, as Korea continuously paid tribute to China after the mid-8th century (Silla temporarily severed diplomatic ties as a result of the war with the Tang). Although invasions by the Khitan (Liao), Mongols (Yuan), and Manchu (Qing) did occur, Japan was relatively disorganized in each case, while Korea paid tribute afterwards, suggesting that foreign aid was not particularly necessary. In other words, given that diplomatic ties between China and Korea remained cordial for well over a millennia, it would have been extremely difficult, if not impossible, for Korea to turn away from China towards Japan.
 
thank for for the reply and for answering my question clearly (the last time i tried a AH forum with my query, i got a "Japan imperialist in disguise" response.)

i mainly ask as a debate i have with my brother and a alternate history project we were planning talking about the what ifs at 1000AD for his history presentation and how much the world would change due to events in a thousand years ago.

since you mentioned it i am curious:

if Goguryeo had unified the peninsula, it would have absorbed Japan altogether instead of attempting more equal relations.

I was looking for a more equal relationship but, as their is none, how would things change if this had actually occurred.
 
hi their
this is my attempt at a hypothetical that's always interested me

Quote from Wikipedia:

The last king of Baekje, Uija, formed an alliance with Japan and made Prince Buyeo Pung and King Zenko stay there as their hostages. In 660, Baekje fell when it was attacked by Silla and the Tang Dynasty China. Former generals of Baekje, including Gwisil Boksin, asked Japan to return Prince Buyeo Pung and to provide military aid. In 663, Japan, supporting Baekje, was defeated by the allied forces of Tang dynasty China and Silla in Korean Peninsula (the Battle of Baekgang), and the restoration of Baekje ended up in failure.

This event is the earliest point i could see this happening, but something has always made me curious.

1: could a dual emperor-ship (like the polish-lithuanian one in europe) between these nations (as a deterrent against an expansionist china as a possible reasoning) work
2: if this could happen, how would the geopolitical landscape be changed.
3: if not is their any way point in time it could?

Thank you for listening to my curiosity questions
I don't think this scenario could ever produce Japan and Paekche in a personal union. Sources aren't really ever clear as to Japan's motivations during this period, but its motives towards Paekche seem intended more as lord-vassal type relations, not equals. So going from your scenario, I don't think it could produce the dual monarchy you are looking for. Monarchies in East Asia don't work like European ones. There's just no way to get the Japanese monarch acceptable to the Paekche people or vice versa short of absolute conquest. And that's possible if Paekche (and Koguryŏ) survive the 660-668 wars, but this change is so radical that it's hard to imagine how it works out.

But for the sake of an alternate history, your situation might look something like this: in 661, Poksin and Toch'im defeat Liu Rengui and Liu Renyuan. The Tang effort in Paekche collapses, which means the (likely but not necessary) end of Tang's effort against Koguryŏ too. But these wars will still have weakened Paekche and Koguryŏ, giving Silla time to survive. What happens to Paekche? Well, there would already be Japanese troops in Paekche, so maybe Japan might want to keep those troops there. But in the 660s, Japan was also involved in a military campaign against the Emishi and the "Sushen" (whether they were the Sushen of Chinese sources or just called that is a disputed matter). So I don't think Japan would try to take control of Paekche. It had other military matters to take care of, and would settle for a tributary relationship instead. And I don't think that could last either, because Japan doesn't inspire the same long-term awe that the Tang did. So Puyŏ P'ung get's installed as King to succeed Puyŏ Ŭija, and is probably dependent on Japan for a while as the country recovers. But after a while, I think things will go revert to the Three Kingdoms status quo that had prevailed for some time.

thank for for the reply and for answering my question clearly (the last time i tried a AH forum with my query, i got a "Japan imperialist in disguise" response.)

i mainly ask as a debate i have with my brother and a alternate history project we were planning talking about the what ifs at 1000AD for his history presentation and how much the world would change due to events in a thousand years ago.

since you mentioned it i am curious:

if Goguryeo had unified the peninsula, it would have absorbed Japan altogether instead of attempting more equal relations.

I was looking for a more equal relationship but, as their is none, how would things change if this had actually occurred.
I highly doubt Koguryŏ could have absorbed Japan because it wasn't a notable naval power. I think Koguryŏ would have settled for being in a stronger position and forcing Japan to end its raids on the Korean Peninsula. But this is more likely than the other way around, with Japan absorbing Koguryŏ.

However, I don't think Koguryŏ is in a position to unify the Korean Peninsula as long as it focuses on the Tang threat instead. But if other threats (Tujue, Tufan, etc) prove to be more dangerous, then maybe Tang will divert its attentions. But the Tang by the 660s had proved to be quite adept at defeating this other threats, so I think they would try to conquer Koguryŏ again at some point.
 
thank for for the reply and for answering my question clearly (the last time i tried a AH forum with my query, i got a "Japan imperialist in disguise" response.)

i mainly ask as a debate i have with my brother and a alternate history project we were planning talking about the what ifs at 1000AD for his history presentation and how much the world would change due to events in a thousand years ago.

since you mentioned it i am curious:

if Goguryeo had unified the peninsula, it would have absorbed Japan altogether instead of attempting more equal relations.

I was looking for a more equal relationship but, as their is none, how would things change if this had actually occurred.

No problem. I don't think that there's another member on this website that focuses specifically on Korea, although several are generally knowledgable on East Asia as a whole.

Goguryeo could only have absorbed Japan if a favorable PoD had occurred around 390-430, as it was militarily less capable before then due to Chinese invasions, while Baekje, Gaya, and Silla had made enough preparations to repulse Goguryeo's advances afterward. However, Japan (which was not consolidated until around 500 IOTL) would have probably become independent around 100-200 years later once political turmoil occurred within Goguryeo, as it would have generally focused much more on relations with China.

For reference, you can look at my TL (sig) for developments stemming from an earlier PoD, although I'm still working on the details.

I don't think this scenario could ever produce Japan and Paekche in a personal union. Sources aren't really ever clear as to Japan's motivations during this period, but its motives towards Paekche seem intended more as lord-vassal type relations, not equals. So going from your scenario, I don't think it could produce the dual monarchy you are looking for. Monarchies in East Asia don't work like European ones. There's just no way to get the Japanese monarch acceptable to the Paekche people or vice versa short of absolute conquest. And that's possible if Paekche (and Koguryŏ) survive the 660-668 wars, but this change is so radical that it's hard to imagine how it works out.

But for the sake of an alternate history, your situation might look something like this: in 661, Poksin and Toch'im defeat Liu Rengui and Liu Renyuan. The Tang effort in Paekche collapses, which means the (likely but not necessary) end of Tang's effort against Koguryŏ too. But these wars will still have weakened Paekche and Koguryŏ, giving Silla time to survive. What happens to Paekche? Well, there would already be Japanese troops in Paekche, so maybe Japan might want to keep those troops there. But in the 660s, Japan was also involved in a military campaign against the Emishi and the "Sushen" (whether they were the Sushen of Chinese sources or just called that is a disputed matter). So I don't think Japan would try to take control of Paekche. It had other military matters to take care of, and would settle for a tributary relationship instead. And I don't think that could last either, because Japan doesn't inspire the same long-term awe that the Tang did. So Puyŏ P'ung get's installed as King to succeed Puyŏ Ŭija, and is probably dependent on Japan for a while as the country recovers. But after a while, I think things will go revert to the Three Kingdoms status quo that had prevailed for some time.

That's true, given that sources from both sides (Korean and Japanese) suggest that Baekje and Japan most likely did not treat each other as equals. However, it's also worth noting that Baekje generally conducted trading relations with several limited regional entities before 500, for reasons stated earlier, which also further complicates issues.

In addition, even if the Baekje restoration movement had managed to briefly succeed with Japanese assistance in 663, it would have been extremely difficult for Goguryeo and Baekje to coordinate their efforts in order to defeat Silla, as it would still have been allied with the Tang, while Baekje would have been preoccupied with issues on the peninsula to contemplate a stronger alliance with Japan, mostly due to various logistical issues. In any case, I agree that unification would essentially have been impossible at this time.

I highly doubt Koguryŏ could have absorbed Japan because it wasn't a notable naval power. I think Koguryŏ would have settled for being in a stronger position and forcing Japan to end its raids on the Korean Peninsula. But this is more likely than the other way around, with Japan absorbing Koguryŏ.

However, I don't think Koguryŏ is in a position to unify the Korean Peninsula as long as it focuses on the Tang threat instead. But if other threats (Tujue, Tufan, etc) prove to be more dangerous, then maybe Tang will divert its attentions. But the Tang by the 660s had proved to be quite adept at defeating this other threats, so I think they would try to conquer Koguryŏ again at some point.

See above. Goguryeo could only have succeeded in unification after a PoD around 390-430 or so, and the division would have been prolonged at best with changes after 660.
 
That's true, given that sources from both sides (Korean and Japanese) suggest that Baekje and Japan most likely did not treat each other as equals. However, it's also worth noting that Baekje generally conducted trading relations with several limited regional entities before 500, for reasons stated earlier, which also further complicates issues.

In addition, even if the Baekje restoration movement had managed to briefly succeed with Japanese assistance in 663, it would have been extremely difficult for Goguryeo and Baekje to coordinate their efforts in order to defeat Silla, as it would still have been allied with the Tang, while Baekje would have been preoccupied with issues on the peninsula to contemplate a stronger alliance with Japan, mostly due to various logistical issues. In any case, I agree that unification would essentially have been impossible at this time.

See above. Goguryeo could only have succeeded in unification after a PoD around 390-430 or so, and the division would have been prolonged at best with changes after 660.
Koguryŏ and Paekche could easily have survived 660-668. Emperor Gaozong wanted to withdraw from Paekche after the Poksin/Toch'im revolt. In Gaozong's reign, besides the fight with Koguryŏ and Paekche, the Tang also fought the Khitan, Xi, Tiele, Helu, Shijie, Bayegu, Pugu, Tongluo, Kucha, Tujue, Tufan, Chuyue, and Gongyue (Almaliq?), while suppressing revolts in Guizhou, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Yunnan and Guangxi. In a broader context of Tang foreign policy, Paekche is very, very, very low on the Tang list of priorities. Alliance with Silla aside, it's more likely that the Tang will decide to deal with one of these many other foreign enemies and leave the Korean Peninsula alone. And that means little help will get to Silla, and that means the Korean Peninsula continues its division. It's really a perfect time for Koguryŏ and Paekche to work together, at least until Yŏn Kaesomun's successors begin any possible period of feuding. The formation of a Japan/Paekche/Koguryŏ alliance seems quite likely to me, but it would be a short-lived alliance that will still buy Koguryŏ and Paekche a considerable amount of time.
 
Koguryŏ and Paekche could easily have survived 660-668. Emperor Gaozong wanted to withdraw from Paekche after the Poksin/Toch'im revolt. In Gaozong's reign, besides the fight with Koguryŏ and Paekche, the Tang also fought the Khitan, Xi, Tiele, Helu, Shijie, Bayegu, Pugu, Tongluo, Kucha, Tujue, Tufan, Chuyue, and Gongyue (Almaliq?), while suppressing revolts in Guizhou, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Yunnan and Guangxi. In a broader context of Tang foreign policy, Paekche is very, very, very low on the Tang list of priorities. Alliance with Silla aside, it's more likely that the Tang will decide to deal with one of these many other foreign enemies and leave the Korean Peninsula alone. And that means little help will get to Silla, and that means the Korean Peninsula continues its division. It's really a perfect time for Koguryŏ and Paekche to work together, at least until Yŏn Kaesomun's successors begin any possible period of feuding. The formation of a Japan/Paekche/Koguryŏ alliance seems quite likely to me, but it would be a short-lived alliance that will still buy Koguryŏ and Paekche a considerable amount of time.

I certainly agree, as the Tang was forced to withdraw north of Pyongyang, as it was overextended logistically, soon after the war from 670-6 had been concluded, due to the fact that the Silla-Tang alliance fell apart due to Goguryeo's collapse, and Silla managed to drum up resistance from former Goguryeo and Baekje soldiers as well. In addition, Balhae (initially under a coalition of disparate tribes that had been displaced by the Tang) managed to recover most of Goguryeo's former possessions by a decade or so after 698 because it managed to take advantage of a revolt by the Khitan shortly before then. If the Baekje-Japan alliance did win the Battle of Baekgang, some Japanese troops would have temporarily maintained a presence, while Goguryeo would have immediately sought an alliance in order to constrain Silla, although infighting would have quickly resumed after the Tang decided to direct operations elsewhere, as Baekje would have been wary of Goguryeo's undue influence, while Goguryeo would have been unwilling to ally with Silla, given the tumultuous events before 660. As a result, Baekje would probably have occasionally switched alliances between Goguryeo and Silla, depending on the situation.

It's also worth noting that Uija was probably not as depraved to the extent portrayed in later sources, as accounts such as the "3,000 Court Ladies" have not been thoroughly substantiated, not to mention that recent calculations suggest that such a feat would have been virtually impossible. In addition, the Baekje soldiers in question under Gyebaek had been highly trained and willing to fight to the end, as they successfully repulsed five waves from Silla during the Battle of Hwangsanbeol despite being outnumbered by 10:1, as they had been inspired by the commander's historical allusion to Goujian of Yue's resounding victory over Wu forces, despite similar conditions. It was not until a hwarang was executed by Gyebaek in an act of mercy that Kim Yu-shin was finally able to break through in revenge, which has led some scholars to surmise that the Baekje force was annihilated not due to the final assault by Silla, but due to Tang reinforcements that were later covered up, as the soldiers from Silla had been highly inexperienced. The account of Gyebaek killing his family before heading off to battle has also been called into question, as the details suggest that the court had thoroughly considered all of the possibilities before deciding on Hwangsanbeol, as it was the most suitable to defend, so it would have made no sense for Gyebaek to predict that he would have lost the upcoming battle.

In other words, while Baekje could have managed to retain a presence on the peninsula soon after scoring a decisive victory in either Hwangsanbeol or Baekgang, which would have weakened the Tang's resolve, it would have been preoccupied with events on the peninsula rather than attempting closer relations with Japan. While the Tang's earlier withdrawal might have prevented the relationship among Yeon Gaesomun's sons from deteriorating to the extent as had occurred IOTL, political tensions would have continued to simmer due to the military dictatorship, which was only the second in 500 years. Although the continuing division might have bought enough time for both Baekje and Goguryeo, the former would also have been sidelined over the long run due to its fragile geographic position, while Goguryeo and Silla would have attempted to win Baekje over as well.

EDIT: I did some research, and Uija managed to seize 40 southwestern fortresses from Silla in 642, taking over most of what had been Gaya, and managed to pressure its eastern neighbor from two fronts after conducting an alliance with Goguryeo in the following year. Seven fortresses then passed to Silla control and back to Baekje by 645, and when Silla began to negotiate with the Tang in 649, Baekje responded by sending envoys to China in 651, although after the Tang requested Baekje to return its newly obtained possessions back to Silla, it decided to sever all ties with China in the following year. However, this led to strengthened ties with with Goguryeo, and negotiations were conducted soon after with Japan in 653, allowing Baekje to seize another 33 northern fortresses from Silla in 655. It also successfully defended an assault in 659, forcing Silla to request military aid from the Tang soon after in order to avoid losing to Baekje altogether. After 655, though, Uija seems to have withdrawn interest in military affairs in order to focus on his palace, and although specific details remain unclear, it is certain that his sudden change in attitude allowed Silla to regain the initiative, ultimately resulting in his downfall.

As a result, while Baekje might have been able to continue pressuring Silla with the help of Goguryeo and Japan if events had occurred differently around 660-3, Silla would probably have continued to exist as long as it retained a hold on the Han River valley, as Baekje's position had become extremely untenable soon after the Silla-Tang alliance.
 
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