With a POD before or after its proclamation in 1897, how would the Korean Empire prevent falling into the Japanese sphere and retain its independence?
How would the Korean Empire survive?
- Thread starter Tredecimus
- Start date
I think with a POD after 1897 is pretty hard as Korea has fallen behind in the technology field. So after that Korea will need a foreign power to protect it. But it wouldn't be much of an empire then.
Any POD before that would need Korea to be more advanced. Not terrifically like Japan was. But enough to make an invasion terribly costly. Considering the French invaded in 1866, that should've been enough to get people thinking.
Any POD before that would need Korea to be more advanced. Not terrifically like Japan was. But enough to make an invasion terribly costly. Considering the French invaded in 1866, that should've been enough to get people thinking.
Earlier modernization of Korea would be the best. Japan turning away from modernization or slower modernization would be even better. The Koreans would still have to deal with Russia but they are probably more interested in China
A stronger Korean navy would also help prevent an assult by Japan.
A stronger Korean navy would also help prevent an assult by Japan.
A PoD around 1897 is far too late, given that the Imo Incident (1882), Gapsin Coup (1884), and the Donghak Rebellion (1894) all destabilized Korean politics and society as a whole, while the First Sino-Japanese War (1894-5), which broke out mostly as a result of Donghak Rebellion, ended up consolidating Japanese influence over the peninsula. In addition, Queen Min (Empress Myeongseong) was assassinated in 1895, which essentially ended any hopes of balancing Chinese, Japanese, and Russian interests, while the Gwangmu Reforms (1897-1907) essentially continued prior trends that had begun since the early 1980s, and did very little to establish stable diplomatic relations with Japan.
A PoD specifically focusing on removing significant pressures from foreign entities would need to occur at least by 1850 or so, as the Japanese managed to assert control due to its rapid industrialization and its close geographical location. On the other hand, internal changes would need to occur at least by 1750 or so, as societal issues, such as land reforms and reorganizing the financial system, including a less hostile approach to merchants due to Confucianism, need to be addressed in order to embark on industrialization.
Generally agreed, although even 1866 would be too late to force Korea to head in a different direction. See above.
Agreed, although changes within society must occur before attempting military reforms. See above.
How is this going to happen? Russia essentially lost IOTL because of severe logistical issues, as it needed to move its fleet all the way from the Baltic Sea to Japan after passing south of the Cape of Good Hope, not to mention significant tensions with its European neighbors, along with societal dissent regarding domestic issues, both causing the country to retain troops in the west. Even if Russia had somehow managed to win a war against Japan after the latter failed to actively pursue industrialization before then, there is no reason for Russia to hold back, as it would have been focused on obtaining warm-water ports, while British interests were geographically located nowhere near Korea at the time.
MarshalBraginsky
Banned
Didn't the late Empress Myeongseong wanted to forge closer ties to Russia instead of Japan? That alone might not only be the reason as to why she was murdered by Japanese agents.
The best way to invade China by Japan leads through Korea, so I don't think it'd help.
Japan's primary priority wasn't to take over Korea, it was to have a Korea that nobody else could take over. Korea in hostile hands was seen as a major threat to Japanese security.
If you have a Korea which decides to modernise and distances itself somewhat from China, and looks like it won't collapse in 5 minutes if China or Russia invade, then the Japanese will be happy to leave it be.
1897 though is really too late. Korea has totally missed its chances to modernise. Perhaps you could get Japanese thinking to be more in favour of continuing the puppet regime than annexation. I suspect you maybe need events elsewhere in the world to convince them of this- something in Ireland or the like.
If you have a Korea which decides to modernise and distances itself somewhat from China, and looks like it won't collapse in 5 minutes if China or Russia invade, then the Japanese will be happy to leave it be.
1897 though is really too late. Korea has totally missed its chances to modernise. Perhaps you could get Japanese thinking to be more in favour of continuing the puppet regime than annexation. I suspect you maybe need events elsewhere in the world to convince them of this- something in Ireland or the like.
a very cynical view, but still works:
Ito Hirobumi's plans go through and Korea remains "independent" as a Japanese Protectorate instead of outright colony. The government still remains under significant Japanese control however. This would happen due to a foiled plan by An Jung-geun to assassinate Ito.
Ito Hirobumi's plans go through and Korea remains "independent" as a Japanese Protectorate instead of outright colony. The government still remains under significant Japanese control however. This would happen due to a foiled plan by An Jung-geun to assassinate Ito.
Concurring with democracy101, the "Joseon Navy" during the time effectively consisted of fortifications along the coastline, to block possible naval incursions by foreign entities.
Grey Wolf
Donor
This is the best option going with OTL history pre 1897. A Russian victory is going to unsettle countries like Britain (defensive alliance with Japan) and France, and if Shimonoseki is now superceded by a new multi-lateral treaty then these powers could enforce a Siamisation of Korea.
Best Regards
Grey Wolf
On a logistical level, it would have been very difficult for Japan to invade China without controlling Korea. Taking the peninsula allowed it to expand into Manchuria, allowing it to establish bases to attack North China. Although fortifying Taiwan might have allowed Japan to attack South China, it would have been a less attractive option over the long run.
The military faction had been gaining momentum since the Meiji Reforms, and given that Ito eventually resigned due to political pressure, it would have been very difficult to avert this situation before 1897. Ito remaining would also not have prevented Japanese influences seeping into Korea, so the annexation might have been postponed at best.
If nothing is changed before 1897, the best outcome for Russia would have probably been a stalemate, as it was becoming logistically difficult to supply the army and navy far from its main bases in Europe, while social unrest would probably still have occurred by 1910 or so due to various internal policies, not to mention diplomatic issues with other European powers. While the Japanese military would have taken a significant hit, the country would have continued to intervene in Korea, as significant influences had continued to accumulate since the Ganghwa Treaty in 1876, and might have even forced the country to build up its military after balancing finances in order to prevent suffering future defeats. As a result, while Japanese influence might have temporarily been curtailed, the situation over the long term would probably have resembled what had occurred IOTL.
It's also important to note that Siam managed to escape Western colonization because the British and French began to intervene around the same time, while Chulalongkorn also managed to play the powers against each other through careful diplomacy for around 50 years. This generally cannot be applied to the situation in Korea because the Japanese influence continued to grow at a disproportionate rate since the 1880s or so within a much shorter time period, all despite Chinese and Russian interests. In addition, the Korean government was forced to ask for Japanese assistance just to quell a severe peasant uprising (1894-5), suggesting that the military was extremely underequipped at the time.
While Queen Min did manage to play China, Japan, and Russia against each other for around two decades, the First Sino-Japanese War eventually allowed Japan to further consolidate its position, while internal political disputes over which country to side with further weakened her position over time. The Korean military also continued to remain extremely undersupplied until the peninsula became a Japanese protectorate in 1905 and was eventually annexed five years later, both through indirect pressure, indicating the severe military disparity between the two. As a result, progressive reforms for well over a century beforehand would have been necessary in order to speed up industrialization.
This would also be the reason why Ito's survival would not have significantly affected the greater picture, as the military faction was the main reason for the eventual annexation.
MarshalBraginsky
Banned
If the Taiping Rebellion was even worse than IOTL, Korea could escape from Qing control, but would end up in Russian hands. Although would Russian controlled Korea be as bad as a Japanese controlled Korea? I'm not sure.
I heard about a French attempt to colonize Korea which ended in failure. Could the French opted for forcibly opening Korea to international trade? Or would that too, end in failure?
I heard about a French attempt to colonize Korea which ended in failure. Could the French opted for forcibly opening Korea to international trade? Or would that too, end in failure?