DBWI: Mongols fail to take over Japan
- Thread starter Historyman 14
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cubefreak123
Banned
I suppose it's possible if the Mongols had decided to attack the same place they tried the first time (although I doubt they'd be that stupid) or if they tried to set sail on the commandeered river-boats instead of waiting for some better ships. They might have been swept up in that cyclone if they'd tried to set out earlier.
Well you'd have far fewer or maybe even no Christians in Japan since the pax-Mongolica and their religious tolerance is really what opened Asia to the Christian missionaries who swept east after Constantinople was conquered. The Japanese anti-Christian riots in 1370 were put down violently and as a result of their continued loyalty the Khan elevated Christians to positions of authority within Japan.
Without a Mongol conquest I think Asia would be a lot less tolerant place.
Without a Mongol conquest I think Asia would be a lot less tolerant place.
Considering the great importance and influence of the Nipponese Khanate on Japanese history, Japan would probably be culturally and politically completely different. For example, Koryo would be probably be an independent nation-state now. There is no reason to assume that Koryo would have naturally been part of Japan; it was an opportunistic conquest made by the rebelling Nipponese khan when the Yuan Dynasty fell, not any kind of gradual cultural unification.
OOC: Goryeo was highly militaristic throughout its existence, and mobilized over 200,000 troops in order to repel numerous invasions from the Khitan, Jurchen, and Mongols for centuries, none of which managed to directly incorporate the peninsula due to stiff resistance. Part of this was due to the fact that Goryeo viewed areas north of what is now Pyongyang as "lost territories," as it considered itself as a successor to Goguryeo, which allowed it to come close to doubling its holdings over four centuries. As a result, a "Goryeo" that is somehow not independent in an alternate scenario would require a PoD so far back (around the 1st century BC, if not much earlier) that the Mongolian, Japanese, and Korean counterparts in the 13th century would be entirely unrecognizable from the ones IOTL, in which the "Yuan," "Kamakura shogunate," and "Goryeo" would not exist.
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OOC: I think whether Koryo can mobilize 200,000 soldiers or not, there would still be a possibility a Mongol-Japanese army could conquer them in times of turmoil. I think the real question is national identity, but this was a non-issue in the 14th century. Think about it, in this world, the Yuan Empire conquered a similarly militarized but significantly larger country (Japan) than Koryo in a naval invasion, is it really impossible that Koryo could fall? There is always an element of chance, and here the "Nipponese Khanate" is just incredibly lucky.
I think it was really the impact of the loss at Imari Bay and the death of Hōjō Tokimune on morale that led to the rapid disintegration of Japan's unified front. If they had held onto some land, maybe even completely repelled the Mongols (not to be too ASB), it would have had a unifying effect on the various fiefdoms. Perhaps Japan would have become a centralized power with their own "Pax Nipponica" under the shōguns--one that might have expanded into Goryeo eventually. Maybe it would have been claimed as a divine victory, with the prestige of both Shintō shrines and Zen Buddhism increasing to the point where they exerted greater pressure over the secular authorities.
OOC: The Yuan managed to invade Japan IOTL with a navy that had been built mostly by the Chinese (Jin & Song) and the Koreans (Goryeo). Most of the ships had also been hastily constructed, leading to low quality, and was part of the reason why they were swept away by the typhoons, although the shape of their hulls was another factor. However, once the Yuan is forced to flee north, it will essentially become landlocked, and even if it does manage to somehow retain areas like Shandong and Liaodong, most of the shipbuilders will be located in Southern China, not to mention that the Mongols will be forced to deploy the vast majority of its ships against China, let alone invading Korea.
The government in Japan would also take advantage of the chaos in China to declare independence, as diplomatic relations would essentially have been severed, and would have been much more concerned about internal stability to even think about invading the peninsula. In any case, Goryeo will either continue to pay tribute to the Mongols and retain close ties, as Yuan and Goryeo rulers had remained as blood cousins for a century (up to Gongmin, although he eventually decided to revolt in order to firmly assert national sovereignty), essentially eliminating the need for an invasion, or ally with the resurgent Chinese state in order to drive the Mongols back, similar to what had occurred IOTL.
It's also important to note that the Mongols never succeeded in conquering Ganghwa during seven attempts over 26 years, despite recruiting former Jin shipbuilders, along with numerical superiority, while Goryeo actually managed to recapture its former northern territories and temporarily expand into Liaodong after the Yuan's fall, despite numerous raids by the wokou throughout the period. In addition, during the Imjin War, Joseon (with Ming support) managed to repulse the Japanese after tying them down within various regions, and despite the fact that virtually the entire navy was constructed from scratch since 1592, the Koreans suffered only one naval defeat during seven years of warfare.
As a result, while an invasion (if it occurs) might force Korea to pay tribute in an extremely unlikely scenario, outright conquest and occupation would be virtually impossible.