WI: Mongols conquer Java?

ByzantineLover

I'm not too knowledgable about this area of history. Historically, Kublai Khan sent expeditions to conquer the kingdoms of Java which failed, but what if they had succeeded? Not much? An earlier discovery of Australia?
 

Flocculencio

Donor
It's too far off to rule directly. It was more of a punitive expedition- what essentially seems to have happened (the historical record is unclear and seems to have some clear folktale elements) is that the Yuan expeditionary force gained initial victories but ended up bogged down. Due to the way the SE Asian monsoon system works, no substantial contact could be made with China for the next six months until the monsoon turned. Essentially their local allies turned against them and their force got nibbled at ignominously and when the monsoon turned it was deemed better to withdraw.

Even if they had won, no major effect would have been had- Yuan dominance over it's SE Asian vassal states was purely nominal- the King who had ill treated the Yuan envoys and sparked off the conflict in the first place would probably have been impaled and whichever local noble sucked up best to the Yuan generals would have been installed as King. The Yuan would have sailed off with tribute. Most of the other Malay states already were Yuan vassals- it didn't mean the Yuan had any real active involvement in the area.
 

Ridwan Asher

I am not going to shrug this question as Floc does. What is sure is that this is going to be big for Indonesia.

They pretty much had won, but it turned out that Wijaya, their local friend turned out to be quite a patriot and ambitious. He ambushed the Yuan army after victory banquet when they were still all drunk and confused. Surely it was a mistake to trust a son in law of the king who disgraced the Khan years ago.

Had Wijaya met an untimely death before he pulled it off, then who knows. But lets say who ever takes his place decides to be a good kid and accept vassalage, then perhaps we will see a less stable Java and thus Majapahit Empire doesnt happen. That is BIG for Southeast Asia. For one thing, you will might see the Malays take it up sooner. Though perhaps instead of Malacca, it will be in Sumatra, and will might become a bigger player then OTL Malacca once Europeans show up. That is going to change the entire scramble for spices.

Majapahit also destroyed Pasai, the first Islamic kingdom in the region. Without Majapahit we will might see Islam taking root earlier.

As for China, since Java was their last expedition, the Yuan might wont send anymore after this. But something tells me they will exert more active hegemony in the south.
 

Namayan

ByzantineLover said:
I'm not too knowledgable about this area of history. Historically, Kublai Khan sent expeditions to conquer the kingdoms of Java which failed, but what if they had succeeded? Not much? An earlier discovery of Australia?
Click to expand...

The only way a Mongol state would survive, if it survives as a Khanate instead of a vassal state.

If it does, it will probably larger than the OTL Majapahit.

I dont know what would be the reason to go to Australia. But they do(both the Yuans and the Majapahit) have the tech and capability to go to Australia.
 

Flocculencio

Donor
Ridwan Asher said:
I am not going to shrug this question as Floc does. What is sure is that this is going to be big for Indonesia.

They pretty much had won, but it turned out that Wijaya, their local friend turned out to be quite a patriot and ambitious. He ambushed the Yuan army after victory banquet when they were still all drunk and confused. Surely it was a mistake to trust a son in law of the king who disgraced the Khan years ago.

Had Wijaya met an untimely death before he pulled it off, then who knows. But lets say who ever takes his place decides to be a good kid and accept vassalage, then perhaps we will see a less stable Java and thus Majapahit Empire doesnt happen. That is BIG for Southeast Asia. For one thing, you will might see the Malays take it up sooner. Though perhaps instead of Malacca, it will be in Sumatra, and will might become a bigger player then OTL Malacca once Europeans show up. That is going to change the entire scramble for spices.

Majapahit also destroyed Pasai, the first Islamic kingdom in the region. Without Majapahit we will might see Islam taking root earlier.

As for China, since Java was their last expedition, the Yuan might wont send anymore after this. But something tells me they will exert more active hegemony in the south.
Click to expand...

Fair points re Majapahit.

But as for active involvement- the Yuan didn't really involve themselves in the affairs of all the other SE Asian kingdoms which were their nominal vassals- why would this be different?
 

Ridwan Asher

Flocculencio said:
Fair points re Majapahit.

But as for active involvement- the Yuan didn't really involve themselves in the affairs of all the other SE Asian kingdoms which were their nominal vassals- why would this be different?
Click to expand...

Maritime SEA will likely become a chain of Chinese tribuye paying vassal state, filling Majapahit's place of OTL. Majapahit denied this IOTL, thus Chinese hegemony was confined mostly to Indochina. Zheng He's expedition was intended to expand beyond that, filling the vacum Majapahit left when the later was having civil war. One of the faction even hosted Zheng He's fleet.

With no Majapahit, then Zheng He's expedition might wont happen, since by the time of dynastic change tribute and trade from the south will be just business as usual. Or it will be a military one just like the Yuan did previously, should any nanban feeling opportunistic and uppity to claim a power vacuum.
 
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