Future History: The Second American Civil War
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Part 1:The Road to Civil War
Election 2012: The Democrats run William Pilmore, a man who claims to be ‘all things to all men.’ (And it must be hell in there. ) This is generally regarded as a suicide run – the ongoing war on terror makes anyone promoting peace to be regarded as an idiot. AQ makes matters worse by attacking several targets within Democratic regions; the terror group has fragmented and regrouped. While the attacks are minor, the effect is not. The Democrats get soundly spanked.
Confusing the issue is the appearance of a new party; the America or American Party. While it does not enjoy the funding of its rivals, it has considerable grassroots support.
The Republicans over-react and run Daniel Thompson, a compromise candidate rather than someone known for sticking to one view. Thompson is a middle candidate, supposedly continuing the politics of his predecessor rather than originating new ones. Despite that, Thompson wins the election. What is rather more worrying – to both parties – is that America has done very well indeed, particularly in the Border States.
Late 2012: The Democratic Party fractures along separate lines, between those who want to adapt so that the Party can become governing again, or to those who think that the problem lies in the ‘moderation’ of the democratic line. After the blood settles from the mini civil war, the Party is in ruins; the ‘original’ Democrats (centre-left) and the Justice Party (far-left). After considerable argument, a large percentage of the former centre-left democrats go Republican, leaving the Justice Party in possession of the Democratic vote – and the name.
2013: Like it or not – and the United States hates it – they are being drawn into a confusing mishmash of Middle Eastern politics. Despite considerable success, Iraq remains dangerous to Americans, while Iran continues to support terrorism, including what is effectively a civil war within Saudi Arabia. Syria makes moves to support anti-Israeli factions, therefore forcing the Israelis to act first. Thompson convinces them to hold fire for the moment, which leads to…
An open terror attack, involving nerve gas, is mounted in Tel Aviv. Israel goes nuts and chases the terrorists out into Syrian-held territory. Israel issues an ultimation; Syria can hand over the terrorists and crease all support – or else. Egypt demands UN intervention, along with Iran and Saudi. IAF aircraft are poking at Syria, threatening the state – and Turkey has declared its support for Israel. Despite a last minute attempt by Thompson to broker a peace, the latest Arab-Israel war breaks out.
Israeli columns advance into Syria, destroying the Syrians with ease, while Turkish forces advance from the north. After a short war, the nation is occupied, sending shockwaves around the globe. The only pleased people are the Syrian opposition; the Israelis don’t shoot them at random. Despite that, Israel and Turkey get dragged into a long-term insurgency in Syria.
This triggers off yet another uprising in Palestine, supported by some Egyptian troops. (Under orders? Mutiny? No one knows.) The battles are savage – both sides are crying atrocity – and Israel punches through the defences into the Sihni. The UN attempts to convince them to stop, but they refuse – the nerve gas has really hammered the moderates in the Israeli Government. After a week of savage fighting, Israel has smashed its way to the Suez, forcing Egypt out of the region.
Israel informs the world that it intends to hold onto the region this time, in order to prevent further treachery. The Arab world goes mad with rage – those who can be bothered to care (or paid to care with Saudi money) – and terrorism only increases. As Israel starts evicting Palestinians en masse, the world attempts to do something – the flood of Palestinians into Saudi is causing unrest.
President Thompson finally twists Israel’s arm enough to get them to stop, burning up a great deal of political capital in the process. The US agrees to send a armoured force to the Suez Canal – with specific and clear orders to engage any Egyptian force, in exchange for the region remaining clear of other armed forces. This is not taken calmly anywhere; the pro-Israel factions see it as a sell-out, the anti-Israel factions see it as a way of helping Israel. As US troops get pulled into a war zone, with insurgents, terrorists, robbers and worse, the world economy starts to shudder.
2014: The fallout from the war reaches America – as more terrorist factions carry out strikes against American targets. Higher security measures have some effect – nothing on the scale of 9/11 happens – but there is a growing fear. Despite several Gun Control Acts, the people are stocking up on guns.
Ironically, President Thompson’s lacklustre response leads to the American Party becoming a genuine candidate for power. Many republicans, disgusted with what they see as weakness, move over to the American Party, producing a genuine leader for the first time. In the next two years, there are dozens of successes as states go American.
In response to ongoing trouble, the Internal Security Act is passed. Among other things, it gives the State Governments support in improving the National Guard units within their states, as well as creating a specialized army command – Continental Command – to serve as a coordinating system for any action taken within the CONUS. The Justice Party is strongly against it, mounting legal challenges within days, while the American Party decries it as ‘too little, too late.’
2015: The US is being drawn even deeper into the Middle Eastern quagmire as terrorism spreads. Despite objections, the US has been forced to assume responsibility for defending Saudi’s oil wells, a seriously difficult task at the best of times. The influx of radical Palestinians makes life impossible for Saudi – not unlike the way that immigrants have been a problem in the UK.US/EU. CENTCOM publicly resigns; he claims that the US can either assume full control, which will choke off the poisoned money, or leave the region.
The American Party takes on its isolationist aspect, mainly concentrating on Mexican immigrants. The problem has only got worse as Mexico goes through civil strife, while some immigrants are getting guns from somewhere. Finally, there is an explosion; a robber gang armed with powerful modern weapons attacks a bank. In the resulting media circus, the Govt. passes the Legal Weapons Act, limiting possession of certain types of weapons.
This, more than anything else, is unenforceable. The popular perception is of armed immigrants picking on helpless hard-working Americans, while the government schemes to take away their guns. Local authorities refuse to cooperate with the BATF, while the rise of armed – and technically illegal militias – leads to more collisions with the federal government.
That, however, is only true in the south. In the north, where the troubles are fewer, the attitude is different. “Those rednecks KKKers want to kill all non-whites,” is the battle cry of the Justice Party; they are not alone. Talking about armed border patrols, authorised to open fire without warning, is alarming to many outside the problem zone. The Militias – mob justice – are not well liked.
There is a growing unity between militias, particularly ones dealing with illegal immigrants. Some of them are very well connected to local government; all of them vote American. A handful of clashes with immigrants leads to a federal response, which is a total flop. A raid on a militia – seen as an attempt to prevent an armed response to immigrant threats – failed badly and shots are exchanged. The Texas National Guard intervenes, preventing the arrest and allowing the militia members to escape.
For the first time, there are threats of outright insurrection, if not civil war. Graves, leader of the American Party, manages to calm everyone down, not just out of altruism. The American Party becomes much bigger, as Graves outlines the Party’s objectives.
The news is drowned out…as Saudi Arabia has collapsed. US forces move into laager position to cover their bases as Saudi Princes and their hangers-on flee to their protection. There are several incidences of US troops refusing them protection, much to the horror of the Republicans, and then US bases come under attack from howling mobs. As US air strikes take out the leaders of the revolution, it becomes clear that the Princes can no longer govern the country. Apart from the regions held by the US, there is no formal authority – or any attempt to hold the country together.
The UN attempts to promote a peace initiative. Although global support would be very welcome – and supportive of President Thompson – there is a very clear feeling that the US brought it on themselves. The UK sends some troops, along with Iraq (which are drawn into the fighting), but there are very few other supporters. France, Russia and Germany refuse to become involved.
2016: President Thompson semi-resigns, or is pushed, and is not nominated for the 2016 election. Instead, Michael Scott will stand as the Republican candidate, facing Robert Graves (American). The entire campaign is bitter, raging around the issues of immigration, the failing attempts to seal the border, the involvement in outside wars – particularly in trying to prop up the House of Saud – and security against terrorism.
After a long series of debates, arguments and finally the election, marred by accusations of treachery on both sides, the result is split. As the Supreme Court considers the matter, tempers are running high on both sides.
If I asked really nicely, could someone make a map for this?
Part Two: Opening Shots
Inauguration Day (minus 1 week): With the USSC unable to make up its mind, President Thompson makes a decision. Using the last of his powers, and with the loose agreement of the justices (who see it as him saving them the task), he appoints Scott as the next president. Although he has the best of intentions, the decision provokes riots across the country.
Seeing Thompson’s decision as the final straw, the main Governors of the Border States (except California) meet to discuss the situation. There is a strong feeling that the US is on the brink of collapse; hotheads on both sides are about to do something drastic. The statement by local Republicans that Hispanics have nothing to fear from a Republican President causes more explosions – in a desperate attempt to gain control, the Governors start considering drastic action, including sending for Graves.
When approached by the Governors, now expanded to several other states, Graves flatly refuses to consider secession as an option. As he points out, that would be rebellion against the United States – and it didn’t work out too well the last time. While he thinks that he won the election, he doesn’t want to start a war – instead thinking that they should simply refuse to go along with the result.
Under his prodding, the Governors perform a stealth mobilisation of the State National Guards, calling them into service as possible riot-suppressors. This is not just for the declared purpose; if necessary they may be called upon to fight the Feds. Federal agents within the states are watched by various groups and several thousand are killed by militiamen. Not un-coincidentally, several of them are taken into protective custody.
These decisions do not go unnoticed. Thompson demands that the governors stand down and stop threatening to break the country. The decision is ignored. California (and several other upper south states) are asked to mobilise their own National Guard; California agrees, but is having problems with internal disputes of its own. The other states are either willing to work with Graves, or want to stay out of the dispute.
Graves asked to consider becoming head of a new organisation, one that will work to reunite the US. He agrees, but is reluctant to risk an outright civil war – “after all, we may lose” – and wants a peaceful solution. The problem is that his peaceful solution is athema to many outside the Border States.
Inauguration Day: A number of hotheads within the American Party want to force the issue. On Scott’s inauguration, they attack the place with the assistance of some moles within the security force. In the short and brutal gun battle, the assassins are killed – apart from one, who was duped into believing that Graves ordered it personally. The news is a shockwave; people in the north believe it, by and large, people on the other side think it’s a frame job.
(They’re right – but its not the work of the Feds)
Recovering from a gun wound, Scott declares martial law over the south, with the agreement of most of Congress. (American Party representatives have fled the capital after death threats.) The Coalition of Americans – the loose name for the Governors council – tells Scott to go to hell, recalling the remaining Congressmen and Senators. Graves is formally declared a wanted criminal, even as the FBI reports on the preparations for war within the south.
Week One: Pushed into action, knowing himself to be innocent, Graves acts as fast as possible. Warning the world that Scott is insane, Graves is pushed into becoming the President of the COA, which formally declares itself to be the legitimate governing body of the United States. Reacting as fast as they can, State Police and national guardsmen round up federal agents, attempting to prevent the feds from reacting.
For the moment, the Joint Chiefs have attempted to remain out of the firing line. That balancing act no longer becomes possible – the former CENTCOM has joined COA. The COA forces surround and occupy federal bases across the south, with the exception of California. California is in the middle of a semi-civil war of its own; neither COA nor the US has dared to poke it. Some army units try to find their way out of the nightmare, others are more than willing to join up with COA.
Almost too late, Scott orders that all federal installations are to be defended against the ‘rebels.’ Fort Hood (Texas) is the main surviving outpost, only to be taken by betrayal on the part of the deputy CO. COA is working frantically on integrating what defences it has – suspecting treachery is in the works.
Week Two: By this point, the sides have started to take shape.
US COA Neutral
North Dakota Texas California
South Dakota New Mexico Hawaii
New Hampshire Colorado
Rhode Island Florida
Ironically, the decision for several more states to throw their lot in with the COA makes Scott’s life easier. Congress formally declares that the states that have aligned themselves with the COA are in rebellion, a declaration supported by the COA Senate (comprised of most of the senators who fled Washington, inc some Republicans, lol), which returns the favour. Large parts of the borders are in uproar; COA supporters and anti-federal people are heading south; pro-federal people are heading south. Although the army has attempted to stay out of the fighting, many of the army officers and soldiers have declared for Graves and/or the COA.
There are exceptions. California has not yet sorted itself out, although, surrounded by the COA, it may have no choice, but to join up. Hawaii, by contrast, has remained neutral, along with a lot of American forces overseas. The commander of Pearl Harbour, while loyal to the US, has convinced everyone that it would be better to stay out of the fighting.
Scott is facing the prospect of a major civil war, perhaps even against a nuclear-armed opponent. While he doesn’t think that Graves will launch nukes against American soil, he knows that there are extremists on both sides – ones who will happily blow the United States up rather than stand down.
In the meantime, Graves has been busy. The National Guards of the states – along with the army units and USN units that have fallen into their hands – have been combined into a single army. There is massive recruitment of newcomers into the army, people finally willing to fight against the immigrants. Rumours are spreading that Scott is planning to arm the Hispanics – while the torrent of immigration is continuing unabated.
The main problem is finding a leader. The former CENCOM agrees to take on the task of uniting the disparate elements into a separate US army, under Graves as Commander in Chief. He works hard to integrate regulars and National Guard, but not the Militias – Graves has another job for them.
Mexico has formally protested to the UN about the developments in the US, which they see (or claim to see) as threats to their national sovenity and to their people in the US. Scott takes no action – he has other things to worry about, such as the threatened economic meltdown – but Graves has other plans. A section of the border, five miles into Mexico, is declared a killing zone; anyone crossing the zone does so at risk of his or her life. The Militias, which might have become a problem, get the task of integrating themselves and patrolling the KZ.
Week Three: It’s not fair to say that the COA and the US are separate countries, at least not yet. While the leaders are in a fighting mood, there is still very limited cooperation between the two sides, mainly over the economic issue. A US Civil War means the death toll of most of the world economy, which gives people something else to worry about. The UN attempts to meditate between the two sides, but is told to ‘fuck off,’ by both, although for different reasons.
The borders between the US and COA are still open and trade continues. Both sides know that that won’t last. Part of the problem is California, which is determined to keep its collective eyes closed, despite the presence of rabid anti-federalists. To all intents and purposes, California is a separate state altogether. Certain elements within California have been delighted at the KZ – and have even offered support to the militias. This is discovered in W3 and used to start a non-violent purge of pro-COA elements.
Scott (and Graves) has tried to stay out of the mess. Unfortunately, that’s no longer possible. Both sides are suspecting that the other is going to try to jump first – and one of them jumps. COA forces launch a blitzkrieg into California, hoping to support pro-COA guardsmen who have launched a semi-coup.
Scott attempts to intervene, landing a Marine division in California and ordering aircraft to intervene. IN a series of brutal air battles, both sides take losses, although neither of them fights it out on the ground. Clashes between the marines and the COA forces occur on the ground, but the COA eventually comes out ahead.
Week Four: Scott makes a desperate move to avert all-out war. The air borne divisions are combined and launched into COA territory – with one mission. They have to kill or capture Graves himself, and then hopefully end the war. The battle is brutal, destroying a large part of Austin, but in the end it fails. Graves survives the attack, and the media has a field day.
In many ways, this is a very media-friendly war. Both sides have networks that support them to the death. Both sides use the media – Internet and radios – to get their messages across to the other side. The news of failure – and of the KZ – pushes Congress to authorise Scott to prepare for war – to bring the rebellious states back into the fold.
The real war is about to begin…
Part Three: Total War
Month Two: The Mexican/Hispanic underground has been preparing for trouble, suspecting that Graves intends to strike first. A series of unrelated incidents leads to several clashes, which become outright pro-Scott insurrection. A much-exaggerated press campaign, liking Scott to Lincoln and Graves to Hitler, makes tempers flare on all sides of the borders – outright insurrection has begun.
Fortunately (or unfortunately, depending on whose side you’re on) the Federal forces are unprepared to handle the situation by hitting the COA in the back. Scott has forbidden the shipment of arms to the rebels (for fear of poisoning relationships for good) and is concentrating on sorting out the exact dimensions of the US’s armed forces. Some units, mainly forces based overseas, have remained defacto neutral; others have declared for one side or another. The majority of the USN, for example, is either neutral or on Scott’s side.
The diplomatic situation is even more confused. Unlike the civil war – the first civil war – the south is not attempting to escape the union, but to take control itself. Both sides have strong supporters in the other side, many of whom express their anger through bomb attacks and occasional gun battles. The Red Cross patches together some agreements on repatriating civilians on either side to the other side. For the moment, the UN remains divided, but several states are looking around to see what they can get up to with the US’s attention diverted.
The UK is the only major country to attempt to do anything constructive, including assisting with coordinating US (Neutral) forces and trying to convince both sides to hold peace talks. While both sides try to forge a peace agreement, neither is truly willing to give up anything to the other.
Month Three: The rebellion within the south has been suppressed by the COA, often with extremely brutal violence and a great deal of hypocrisy. US citizens who are against the COA are sent north to the US; Mexican illegal immigrants and the gangs who assist them into the US are either placed in camps or thrown back over the border. The Militias, who have done most of the hard work, are in a ‘take no prisoners’ mood, often slaughtering unarmed Mexicans rather than taking them to the border.
To give Graves his credit, he demands that the State Governments call a halt to unnecessary violence, using the incidents as propaganda to convince the Mexicans to leave voluntarily. This represents the first major split within the COA ranks; some states want to force them all out or kill them all – others want to force them to assimilate.
The UN faces a motion tabled by Mexico, demanding peacekeeping forces for the border. COA units have raided across the border, often engaging Mexican army forces/bandits, and as often as not defeating them. The Mexican Army is in serious trouble for reasons outside the scope of this essay – mainly rebellions in various regions of the country – and the COA is pouring refugees back into Mexico. The Red Cross, which is attempting to handle the problem, reports that thousands have died through both governments lack of concern.
The UN motion is vetoed by Britain, for obvious reasons, and China. The Chinese government is making major sales in weapons to Mexico and the rest of Latin America, and the last thing it wants is for the US to start changing its policy towards Latin America. The French and the Russians, however, are in favour of intervention. The motion fails – simply because neither nation has the ability to become involved at such a distance from their home – but it excites MAJOR paranoia on the part of both COA and the US.
China starts shipping weapons to Mexico. In a plot that would make Stan Lee blush, some of the weapons fall into COA hands, while the border becomes a much more dangerous place than it was. Like it or not, Mexico is dissolving into anarchy. US Intelligence, the de facto FBI, picks up on some of the arms transfers and isn’t happy. It’s even more unhappy when China starts offering some support to the COA…
…Which causes a major incident when Graves quietly informs Scott of the Chinese threat. A foreign war would be one way to reunite the country, but Scott knows better than to try something like that with such unproven weapons as the new US army. Congress, however, pushes for a blockade on COA states, which is duly enforced by the USN.
Month Four: The chaos in Mexico spreads to the Caribbean and down to the rest of Latin America. Panama’s decision to seal the canal to both forces – until the US has come to its senses – is warmly welcomed by COA, which has only a handful of ships, and China. The USN is forced to expand its blockade to the rest of Latin America, which is a de facto act of war. Ironically, this tips Hawaii into the US camp; the USN is involved in trying to prevent China from supplying Latin America, which is taken as an act of war by China.
Embarrassed in front of the rest of the world (which doesn’t matter) and Congress (which does), Scott is forced to issue an ultimation to Graves. The demand is very simple; the COA can disband and be reincorporated into the United States, or they will be treated as rebels, plain and simple. Graves has a week to reply…and rejects the demand; the COA doesn’t trust the US to keep its word.
Ironically, the chaos in Latin America has saved the US/COA economy, as both sides clamp heavy controls on to prevent a banking collapse. As banks hastily sign on to joint plans to prevent collapse, most debts are defaulted on. The chaos spreads out across the world, but prompt action on the part of the G7 manages to keep the chaos to a manageable level. Although the economy is shaky, the limited conscription and the sharp end to social services within the US itself manages to prevent outright collapse; both sides are engaging in limited conscription. Both sides can feed themselves, although it is more than a little problematic in places, and both sides have little difficulty in making arms.
The deadline runs out…and Scott sends a thousand warplanes into combat. The USN has tried to stay out of the proper war, limiting their contribution to the blockade, but it’s too late – war has begun. In four days of brutal fighting in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean, the USN takes a beating, including the loss of two supercarriers to US-built cruise missiles. In exchange, almost the entire COA Navy, such as it was, was destroyed, leaving only a couple of submarines.
Air battles rage backwards and forwards over the border. Both sides are equals in technology and are actually fairly good-spirited towards one another. After a week of heavy fighting, both sides are reeling; the US has little experience at fighting an equal opponent. The UK makes a final attempt to negotiate for a peaceful settlement, but all of them fail.
Both sides claim victory in the first air battles. It’s more like a draw. Scott is hoping for a quick victory, but as the struggles drag on it becomes more and more clear that that is exactly what will not happen. The COA is holding on and holding its own, even raiding back into US territory.
Scott’s problem is that the COA is based in Austin, rather than Richmond or somewhere close to the border. The US has been building up for a long ground campaign, depending on what options Scott chooses. His choices are as follows:
1) He can build up in Kentucky and launch a major ground offensive south to Austin.
2) He can launch from North Carolina into South Carolina and push the border back, seeing that the COA has been building up in South Carolina as well.
3) He can use the marines and launch a sea borne attack on Texas.
So, what do you think he’ll choose? Book now for part 4! Comment?