The Anglo-Brazilian War

Hi guys! This is my first post here on Alternatehistory.com, though I've been into the subject for a while... Anyway, here's something I wrote last night, based on a scenario I've been thinking about for some months: What if the 1860-1865 diplomatic crisis between Brazil and the UK had escalated into open war between the two countries, as it almost did?

I'll try to finish it soon. Enjoy!

Timeline of the Anglo-Brazilian War​

2-2-1861
British cargo vessel "Prince of Wales", on its way to Buenos Aires, is sunk by a storm near the harbor of Rio Grande, southern Brazil. Its cargo - mainly agricultural hardwares - is stolen by the coastal inhabitants.

2-4-1861
The remains of the "Prince of Wales" are towed to Rio Grande by another British ship, whose men find out the cargo is missing. Embassador William Christie is immediately informed.

2-10-1861
In an audiance with Brazilian Emperor Pedro II, Christie claims the "Prince of Wales" was sunk by the Brazilian civilians and demands a reparation. Much to his surprise, the Emperor denies the request.

8-12-1863
Arround midnight, two sailors from a British frigate are arrested by the Police in Rio de Janeiro. The two drunk men had provoked a bar fight, insulted a number of women and an Army officer and tried to dismount a guard from his horse before being thrown in jail.

8-13-1863
The two sailors are released from prison, and immediatly protest to Christie. In turn, the ambassador demands Pedro II to exonerate the policemen who arrested the sailors, the payment for the "Prince of Wales" cargo and apologies to Her Majesty's government. Once again, the Emperor denies. Christie threatens a war.

8-20-1863
Two British frigates (plus the one already in the harbor) enter the Guanabara bay, and their personnel board five Brazilian merchant vessels at the Rio de Janeiro harbor. Population outraged. The five ships are escorted by one of the frigates to another nearby bay, while the other two block the Guanabara.

8-21-1863
POINT OF DIVERGENCE - A cannon is fired by accident from a nearby fortress and hits one of the British frigates. On the resulting battle, both frigates are sunk, at the expense of one Brazilian ship and minor damages to the fortress. Pedro II applogizes for the incident. Even so, Christie leaves the city and annouces that diplomatic relations between Brazil and Britain are suspended. As soon as the third frigate's captain knows of the battle, he orders the sinking of the five merchant vessels. Christie and the rest of the embassy's staff are picked up near Rio by the ship's crew.

9-13-1863
Two Brazilian trading ships en-route to Lisbon are seized by the British navy.

9-15-1863
Queen Victoria declares that the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland is officially at war against the Empire of Brazil. Belgium's king Leopold I, Victoria's uncle, offers to hold peace talks, in vain. Thirty frigates and several transports with a total of fifteen thousand soldiers leave British ports and sail to Brazil.

9-20-1863
Pedro II initiates mobilization for war. Fourteen British vessels on the harbors of Rio, Santos and Salvador are seized. Personnel on all coastal fortresses prepared for battle.

10-1-1863
Fifteen hundred British soldiers land on the island of Fernando de Noronha, 220 miles away from the Brazilian coast. The small detachments there surrender after quick battle.

10-3-1863
Cavalry regiments stationed on the state of Pará march into British Guyana.​

Now, where do we go from it? Your opinions, please.

Welcome aboard and nice idea you have here.
Didn't know Britain and Brazil actually came so close to war as to have the British ambassador threaten it.

Where do you go? Well, there aren't very many places to fight except maybe British Guiana/Brazil border area, but that is mostly jungle anyway and difficult to go through. The only other place is in Brazil itself (but to what end? What would be the aim of the British there?) or at sea (hmm...an almost purely naval war...sounds nice).

Sean Swaby said:

Where do you go? Well, there aren't very many places to fight except maybe British Guiana/Brazil border area, but that is mostly jungle anyway and difficult to go through.

Click to expand...

Not to mention it was mostly uncharted by the 1860ies. I imagine a number of border clashes on the area, until Brazil manages to conquer most - if not all - of Guyana. Even if the UK had more soldiers there, we had more experience in jungle warfare.

Sean Swaby said:

The only other place is in Brazil itself or at sea (hmm...an almost purely naval war...sounds nice).

Click to expand...

Well, not purelly naval. Brazil has a few islands on the Atlantic: the Fernando de Noronha archipelago (midway between Africa and the Northeastern coast) and the Trindade and Martim-Vaz islands (one thousand kilometers from the southeastern coast). Trinande itself was ocuppied by the British in 1890, who found it unuccupied and set up a telegraph station there, before abandoning the island in 1896. Anyway, its nice to imagine the British occuppying both archipelagoes, as well as Abrolhos, an island group nearer the Bahia coast...

I would imagine that Britain would form an expeditionary force and land it in a meaningful place on the Brazilian coast. There would be some analogies to the Crimean War, where taking Sevastopol was hardly going to equate to a conquest of the Russian Empire but would hamstring its ability to act in the theatre. Thus, how are the Brazilian cavalry invading Guiana supplied ? Are there sea-borne supplies from a Northern port ? Where are the railheads etc ? These would seem to be the prime targets for the British

Grey Wolf

Very interesting. Also because the Monroe doctrine is practically "out of order" while USA is engaged in civil war.

I guess the British will not try to make a full fledged invasion (why should they), but rather raid here and there (the old speciality of the British). The Brazilians probably will have bigger difficulties in keeping an army force in most places in Brazil supplied over land than the British have in supplying a force over sea. I would certainly hate to be part of the cavalry force given the job of invading British Guyana. That force might vanish from attrition before it meets the first enemy! A route along the coast might be physically the best, but that would also leave the force within range of RN guns.

Regards

Steffen Redbeard

AAAAAARRRRRRGGGGGGHHHHHH!!!!!! I spent half an hour writing an answer and the f$%&ing boards says I'm not logged in and deletes it!

OK, now I'm calmer

First of all, I don't think there would be a war. In spite of breaking diplomatic relations, neither country wanted war. However, I'll asume war does break out for the sake of the POD.

I do think Brazil would try to seize Guyana, although not by land. Marines had seized French Guyana in 1809(IIRC), and I do think the pattern would be repeated. It would be a race against time, however, between the Brazilian and British naval forces in the area to either seize or reinforce Guyana.

All small islands belonging to Brazil(Fernando de Noronha, Trindade, Penedos de São Pedro e São Paulo) would be seized by the British. The RN would also seize as many Brazilian merchant ships and blockade as may ports as possible. They would be opposed by the Brazilian Navy. At the time, the Brazilian Navy was arguably at its strongest ever, but still it's no match for the RN, especially if the RN brings in reinforcements from home and various other stations. So, we get more heroes to use as warship names, maybe even two or three victorious engagements, but the Brazilian Navy is doomed in the end, even though it might give a few nasty surprises for the RN(kind like in the War of 1812).

OK, now for the land part; Brazil's army is in sad straits indeed. One of the main reasons for the length of the Paraguayan War was the Brazilian Army had to be shaped up during the war. However, the refusal of many National Guard units to go to the front won't happen here. In fact, you'll get a lot more voluntary enlistment than in the Paraguayan War; public opinion was outraged at the seizure of the 5 ships in Guanabara Bay. Also, most of the population lived close to the coast; that's true even today, but it was even more then(around 85% of the population within 200 km of the coast, IIRC). So, British raids will have to deal with large quantities of poorly trained troops, but ones that are close to their supply points(and indeed, their homes), and an uncooperative, if not outright hostile population.

The British may decide to go for the head and strike at Rio de Janeiro directly. There aren't as many forts at the mouth of Guanabara Bay as there were later(for example, Copacabana Fort was completed in 1909), but most of them are there, even though they might not be well equipped. The British might try to bypass the forts by landing on what is now Copacabana, Ipanema and Leme quarters of the city, but they'll have to cross hills to reach the city(which was much smaller then, and almost strictly limited to the west side of Guanabara Bay). Either way, they'll face stiff(even if not skilled) resistance.

Regarding neighboring countries: Argentina back then was fairly friendly to Brazil, so I don't think they'll take sides. Uruguay was in civil war at the time. Paraguay may try to intervene on the Uruguayan civil war and decide that now it's a good time to discuss the Brazilian-Paraguayan border dispute, and settle it in Paraguay's favor, of course(the latter I find it highly possible). I think Brazil would let them, since there's bigger trouble right now. I don't recall any other disputes with other South American countries at the time, so I think all other countries will watch, perhaps gleefully(the Brazilian monarchy wasn't popular among other South American countries, which saw it as interventionist).

Final result: UK wins, although at a higher cost than expected. Brasil loses all above-mentioned islands, probably some territory in the Paraguayan border, and a great deal of influence in the River Plate region. Probably the Amazon River is either opened to navigation for all countries, or there is a deal favoring British interests. The Brazilian monarchy is quite shaken, although I don't think it'll fall. The Emperor will have much less power when the dust settles(I'm envisioning a constitutional reform stripping the Emperor of much of his authority). There's great resentment against Great Britain, and Brazil is driven into the USA economic sphere at least 50 years before than OTL. The Navy and Army will be rebuilt, and Paraguay will be smashed later, perhaps with Argentinian help, depending on how much influence Paraguay gained in the power vacuum formed. Maybe Francisco Solano López starts something that's more than he can handle, as in OTL; what I've read of him indicates he wasn't the most stable of men.