Napoleon never becomes Emporer

December 24th, 1800

For whatever reason, enroute to the Hayden Opera "Creation", Napoleon's carriage on the Rue Saint-Nicaise is delayed a few seconds ( say a pedestrian rushes from one side of the street forcing the driver to pull up the reins momentarily) and just as it passes the carriage housing the "infernal machine" it explodes. The force of the explosion rips through the carriage of the First Consul. Through the remainder of the evening the word slowly spreads... "The Jacobins have killed the First Consul, Merde!".

I am interested in hearing different viewpoints on the course of events that would transpire differently during what would become become our Napoleonic wars.

ACtuammy, this was organised by the royalists, not the Jacobins. OTL, Bonapartes blamed it on the jacobin in order to purge them. I doubt it would be done ITTL

fhaessig said:

ACtuammy, this was organised by the royalists, not the Jacobins. OTL, Bonapartes blamed it on the jacobin in order to purge them. I doubt it would be done ITTL

Click to expand...

yes..it was a royalist plot, but they are the ones spreading the Jacobin rumour...

The Bonapartes could blame it on them of course, or they could use it as in OTL to purge the Jacobins...it depends on who they would see as the greater political threat.

The ideas of democracy and nationalism take longer in spreading around the continent.

That depends on who takes power after Bonaparte and whether he is an opportunist who tries a Monck, an opportunist who goes for dictatorship or a true republican ( I doubt anyone else would go for emperor ). The last option, and possibly the second also could lead to the spreading of democracy and freedom in Europe.

fhaessig said:

That depends on who takes power after Bonaparte and whether he is an opportunist who tries a Monck, an opportunist who goes for dictatorship or a true republican ( I doubt anyone else would go for emperor ). The last option, and possibly the second also could lead to the spreading of democracy and freedom in Europe.

Click to expand...

Well I suppse then the first order of business would be who is likely to be elected as the third member of the triumvirate then and then the replacement as First Consul. Can the Consulate perhaps survive.

things are probably too far along to prevent an analogue to Luneville here its in February after all, but perhaps the Br. attack on Copenhagen can be avoided and Britain avoids its isolation. In addition, the secret treaty of San Ildefonso has been agreed too, providing for the retrocession of Louisiana but the French are not looking to sell it just yet....things have not gone totally to pot in Haiti as yet. Didn't Napoleon orchestrate events that lead to the revolt there. Perhaps the new First Consul can find an accomodation with Toussaint L'Ouverture. to tell you the truth, I am not even sure who the other two consuls were at this time. I suppose one of them is likely to become the new First Consul.

AuroraBorealis said:

I am not even sure who the other two consuls were at this time. I suppose one of them is likely to become the new First Consul.

Click to expand...

Cambaceres and Lebrun.

However, they may still want a famous general as a figurehead ( that's what they thought they were getting with Bonapartes; I'm not sure they had yet wised up ).

fhaessig said:

Cambaceres and Lebrun.

However, they may still want a famous general as a figurehead ( that's what they thought they were getting with Bonapartes; I'm not sure they had yet wised up ).

Click to expand...

Hmm so then I am looking for a famous general other than Bonaparte then...
Mind you I will have to do some digging on Cambaceres and Lebrun. I am thinking to have the political situation stabilize around the end of the whatever the 3rd or 4th coalition this time around looks like ( Prussia joining Austria and Sweden in resisting the machinations of the French in the German principalities...

Okay...
If its likely that another general will be a the replacement as the 3rd member of the tribunat....could it be Lannes or Davout? or perhaps Augereau.

Alternatively, could Sieyes, Tallyrand or Lucien Bonaparte become the third member. Who is likely to be made First Consul then?

Candidates for First Consul then would be Lebrun and Cambaceres, and these six. With Marengo and Hohenlinden already passed Luneville is probalby not going to change...but Amiens could go differently depending on who ends up as 1st Consul.

AuroraBorealis said:

Hmm so then I am looking for a famous general other than Bonaparte then...
Mind you I will have to do some digging on Cambaceres and Lebrun. I am thinking to have the political situation stabilize around the end of the whatever the 3rd or 4th coalition this time around looks like ( Prussia joining Austria and Sweden in resisting the machinations of the French in the German principalities...

Click to expand...

It seems likely that if the Republic stands, that the bulk of the wars waged across the European continent by Napoleon in the 15 years after his death in this TL will not occur.

fenkmaster said:

It seems likely that if the Republic stands, that the bulk of the wars waged across the European continent by Napoleon in the 15 years after his death in this TL will not occur.

Click to expand...

That is what I am looking at yes....survival of the republic without too much of the devastation that occured OTL.

forgot about Massena and Bernadotte when considering other military replacements in the tribunat as well. Bernadotte was opposed to the coup getting rid of the directory so he is only an outside chance I think. Massena does have his achievements in Switzerland going for him though.

thinking to incorporate no reimposition of slavery in Haiti so a rapprochement with the Haitian republic is possible as well. Talleyrand should figure prominently in at least Foreign policy some how I think.

The eastern monarchies are still not going to like the Republic very much so some more warfare in germany with Austria and possibly Prussia is still likely...except this time around I am thinking the Prussians are not so overawed by the victories of Napoleon and thus join the Austrians and Russians in stemming the French tide. Leading to a more equitable peace shall we say around 1808 or so.

I haven't decided where I am going to fit in Spain yet at this point.

AuroraBorealis said:

That is what I am looking at yes....survival of the republic without too much of the devastation that occured OTL.

I haven't decided where I am going to fit in Spain yet at this point.

Click to expand...

Could go either way. Trying to place his brother on the Spanish throne was one of Napoleon's biggest mistakes and suggests he was already starting to lose it big. It alienated an albeit reluctant ally and gave Britain a break in the continental system, most especially because restrictions on trade with the Spanish colonies were largely removed.

On the other hand a republican France is not going to be comfortable with monarchies and vice-versa. Given how conservative, if not reactionary, the Spanish monarchy was, couple with them also being Bourbons relations between the two probably would not be too great.

The interesting thing, if France gets less aggressive and is seen more as seeking to defend itself against counter-revolutionaries, is you might see a change in opinion in Britain. The French revolution was initially welcomed by many in Britain and only when it became too expansionist did it really cause conflict between the two. True after the excesses of the revolution and a decade of war Britain had grown more conservative in reaction but some agreement might have been possible.

Steve

stevep said:

Could go either way. Trying to place his brother on the Spanish throne was one of Napoleon's biggest mistakes and suggests he was already starting to lose it big. It alienated an albeit reluctant ally and gave Britain a break in the continental system, most especially because restrictions on trade with the Spanish colonies were largely removed.

On the other hand a republican France is not going to be comfortable with monarchies and vice-versa. Given how conservative, if not reactionary, the Spanish monarchy was, couple with them also being Bourbons relations between the two probably would not be too great.

The interesting thing, if France gets less aggressive and is seen more as seeking to defend itself against counter-revolutionaries, is you might see a change in opinion in Britain. The French revolution was initially welcomed by many in Britain and only when it became too expansionist did it really cause conflict between the two. True after the excesses of the revolution and a decade of war Britain had grown more conservative in reaction but some agreement might have been possible.

Steve

Click to expand...

Okay... I am going to go with Cambaceres, Lebrun and Massena as the new tribunat. Cambaceres as First Consul, Massena 2nd ( they've wised up to having a military man in charge of the show, but the need for the military to be present is still a given) and Lebrun retains 3rd ( He is I think the most Republican and I think a Jacobin).
Bernadotte can still be responsible for procuring war materials and Tallyrand is Foreign Minister. The reputation of the Jacobins has been tarnished but they have not been entirely purged. Secret Treaty of San Ildefonso is being implemented and France is making progress on its rapprochement with the Haitian Republic. The Batavian, Helvetian and north Italian Republics continue
as per OTL (Luneville is in effect, and these will undoubtably prove a source of friction between the French and the eastern monarchies and Britain). Britain has not attacked Copenhagen so the league of armed neutrality still exists. Britain has retained the Cape colony with the Treaty of Amiens given that France will be obtaining Louisiana. Spain remains an ally, though a reluctant one, of the French Republic under Carlos IV. France agrees to continue to extend the Americans their rights on the Mississippi and at New Orleans that they had under the Spanish regime in Louisiana.

I would think France would be reinvaded as the the Peace of Amiens had not yet been signed, and as you said the British had not yet attacked Copenhagen. I don't believe Pitt would give up the chance to increase his popularity by invading France.

It would probably lose all of its territory it gained, and become a monarchy again.

Well, it means that the Napleonic Wars never truely start, and the military installs a new emperor. The most likely general for the job was Marshal Andre Massena. How does Emperor Andre deal with the ensuing Royalist revolt? I think that a bloody French civil war lasts a year before the British finally intervene and send an expeditionary force to Paris to install a new king. So, millions of lives are spared, Prussia never becomes powerful and thus Germany remains divided, there is no Franco-Prussian War. As a result, the alliance system of 1914 looks like this: France, the British, the Prussians, and Russia as the Allied Powers; the German States, Austria-Hungary, and the Ottoman Empire as the Central Powers. Probably WWI is avoided, and as a result the 20th century remains peaceful with the British on top as the main superpower.

Evil Opus said:

Well, it means that the Napleonic Wars never truely start, and the military installs a new emperor. The most likely general for the job was Marshal Andre Massena. How does Emperor Andre deal with the ensuing Royalist revolt? I think that a bloody French civil war lasts a year before the British finally intervene and send an expeditionary force to Paris to install a new king. So, millions of lives are spared, Prussia never becomes powerful and thus Germany remains divided, there is no Franco-Prussian War. As a result, the alliance system of 1914 looks like this: France, the British, the Prussians, and Russia as the Allied Powers; the German States, Austria-Hungary, and the Ottoman Empire as the Central Powers. Probably WWI is avoided, and as a result the 20th century remains peaceful with the British on top as the main superpower.

Click to expand...

If you presume that no Germany unification occurs I think France would probably be the main continental power, or at least seen to be. That would mean it would be on the opposite side to Britain in any alliance conflict. [Especially since there would probably be maritime and colonial disputes between the two powers. I would suggest that Austria/Germany and Russia would also be on opposite sides for similar reasons. Prussia, especially as it would be half Polish, could be going either way as could the Ottomans but would expect them to probably be on the anti Russian side.

Steve

stevep said:

If you presume that no Germany unification occurs I think France would probably be the main continental power, or at least seen to be. That would mean it would be on the opposite side to Britain in any alliance conflict. [Especially since there would probably be maritime and colonial disputes between the two powers. I would suggest that Austria/Germany and Russia would also be on opposite sides for similar reasons. Prussia, especially as it would be half Polish, could be going either way as could the Ottomans but would expect them to probably be on the anti Russian side.

Steve

Click to expand...

The French lost their superpower status to the British circa 1715, and breifly regained it during 1800-1815. I think that the Brits remain in charge of the world after they restore order to Paris, and most likely install a pro-British monarch.