The Paraguayan War was incredibly devastating to its namesake country. Estimates vary as to how many people were killed but 60% of the population seems to be a reasonable figure. The question is how could Paraguay win the war and defeat the Triple Alliance? I think winning the Battle of Riachuelo would go a long way to achieving this as it would allow Paraguay control over the river and allow it to support its invasion of Argentina. However, I know virtually nothing about the war so I could be completely wrong. The second question is what would be the effects of Paraguay winning the war? How and what would it change?
AHC/WI: Paraguay wins the Paraguayan War
- Thread starter Captain Jack
- Start date
The Battle of Riachuelo is Paraguay's best bet, but IMO, it could only delay the defeat. I think they'd need to break their enemies political will to carry on the war to the last consequences. Maybe the weakest link is the Argentine political leadership. But I don't see Mitre bailing Argentina out of the war, nor I see a way for Paraguay to alter Argentine politics.
So maybe you need two PODs: one in which Paraguay wins the Battle of Riachuelo and another one, maybe as a consequence, in which there are more mutinies in Argentina against the war and Mitre fears he can loose his grip into power.
Of course, even in this scenario, "win" means "white peace"
So maybe you need two PODs: one in which Paraguay wins the Battle of Riachuelo and another one, maybe as a consequence, in which there are more mutinies in Argentina against the war and Mitre fears he can loose his grip into power.
Of course, even in this scenario, "win" means "white peace"
Mitre could easily be captured by Paraguayan forces, since he was leading his army in person. Same with the Uruguayan president. The Paraguayans actually came rather close to encircling and defeating the allied army at Tuyuti.
unprincipled peter
Donor
What's the POD?
One thing needed is better preparation on the part of Paraguay (training/weaponry/etc) and a better navy so that they can take control of the river, the banks, and the mouth. Controlling the river is absolutely paramount. After that, it's a matter of knocking the triple alliance out. Uruguay is pretty much a non consideration. If Argentina and Brazil drop out, U is sunk. Brazil is a giant, but the center is far away, so as long as Paraguay doesn't seek too much Brazilian land, Brazil may get tired and drop out. Most of what Paraguay is going to gain is at the expense of Argentina and Uruguay (probably entre rios, corrientes, missiones, maybe Uruguay, and possibility of Brazil's rio do sul). That makes a big country on Buenos Aires doorstep, and Argentina is not going to drop out easily if there's that kind of threat so close. Maybe if P just kicks some butt and then settles for minor gains, the TA would accept it, but why bother starting a war which is intended to establish yourself as a regional power and then not get enough out of it to make yourself a power.
So, you have Paraguay with a beach head at the mouth of the river, thus access to the outside world, and an Argentina not likely to just roll over and die, and a Brazil that isn't likely to drop out too fast either. Paraguay needs a massive knockout punch to all of the combatants, and that's a bit unrealistic. However, with a real regional war going on, instead of the OTL long siege, European powers are going to sit up and take notice and likely look to mediate.
One thing needed is better preparation on the part of Paraguay (training/weaponry/etc) and a better navy so that they can take control of the river, the banks, and the mouth. Controlling the river is absolutely paramount. After that, it's a matter of knocking the triple alliance out. Uruguay is pretty much a non consideration. If Argentina and Brazil drop out, U is sunk. Brazil is a giant, but the center is far away, so as long as Paraguay doesn't seek too much Brazilian land, Brazil may get tired and drop out. Most of what Paraguay is going to gain is at the expense of Argentina and Uruguay (probably entre rios, corrientes, missiones, maybe Uruguay, and possibility of Brazil's rio do sul). That makes a big country on Buenos Aires doorstep, and Argentina is not going to drop out easily if there's that kind of threat so close. Maybe if P just kicks some butt and then settles for minor gains, the TA would accept it, but why bother starting a war which is intended to establish yourself as a regional power and then not get enough out of it to make yourself a power.
So, you have Paraguay with a beach head at the mouth of the river, thus access to the outside world, and an Argentina not likely to just roll over and die, and a Brazil that isn't likely to drop out too fast either. Paraguay needs a massive knockout punch to all of the combatants, and that's a bit unrealistic. However, with a real regional war going on, instead of the OTL long siege, European powers are going to sit up and take notice and likely look to mediate.
Interestingly this is a scenario I was looking to expand further and contemplating putting into a TL. One of the POD's was that the Jesuits suggest / use the Islamic approach to banking i.e. rather than interest being used the lender assumes an equitable share of the Company and with respect to profit.
Plus it also involves a former Union army officer from the South.
Plus it also involves a former Union army officer from the South.
Tamandaré
Banned
Don't know as much as I would like, but I really can't see how they would do it.
Best chance is for Solano Lopez not to be a lunatical idiot and attack Brazil. Fighting Brazil is a losing proposition - Brazil is a giant, many times larger country, Paraguay is small and in the middle of swampland. Even if the brazilians lose in Riachuelo, they just need to buy more ships, they got the money and the will.
Brazil is the key. Take Brazil out of the picture and Argentina is in dire straits. Otherwise, sooner or later the Brazilians will get enough ships to fight a naval battle again and eventually their immense manpower will bring victory.
A possible victory is a ATL where pretty much everything goes wrong for the Brazilian Empire, which causes a violent civil war between Republicans and Monarchists or between Abolitionists vs Anti-Abolitionists.
Best chance is for Solano Lopez not to be a lunatical idiot and attack Brazil. Fighting Brazil is a losing proposition - Brazil is a giant, many times larger country, Paraguay is small and in the middle of swampland. Even if the brazilians lose in Riachuelo, they just need to buy more ships, they got the money and the will.
Brazil is the key. Take Brazil out of the picture and Argentina is in dire straits. Otherwise, sooner or later the Brazilians will get enough ships to fight a naval battle again and eventually their immense manpower will bring victory.
A possible victory is a ATL where pretty much everything goes wrong for the Brazilian Empire, which causes a violent civil war between Republicans and Monarchists or between Abolitionists vs Anti-Abolitionists.
Actually, I'd say it's the other way round. Without Argentina, the Brazilian ability to bring the war to Paraguay is seriously curtailed - remember what happened when Brazil tried to invade from Mato Grosso.
unprincipled peter
Donor
Mato Grasso is even more isolated than Paraguay. Brazil's main connection with it was through Paraguay, and MG was a sparsely populated backwater region. I wouldn't read anything into Brazil's ability to strike being related to the MG foibles. They were ill prepared and ill led, and there wasn't much way to change it.
IF Paraguay makes it into Uruguay or Rio do Sul, Brazil has plenty of ability to strike at Paraguayan forces. IF Argentina joins forces with Paraguay, Brazil has a tough row to hoe, and without Argentine acquisance to using the rivers (basically the same as A joining P) Brazil has a tough row to hoe, but ultimately, the bulk of the invasion force into P was Brazilian. IF A sits on the sidelines, B may not be able to invade P, but they can easily compete with P anywhere P decides to try projecting itself.
IF Paraguay makes it into Uruguay or Rio do Sul, Brazil has plenty of ability to strike at Paraguayan forces. IF Argentina joins forces with Paraguay, Brazil has a tough row to hoe, and without Argentine acquisance to using the rivers (basically the same as A joining P) Brazil has a tough row to hoe, but ultimately, the bulk of the invasion force into P was Brazilian. IF A sits on the sidelines, B may not be able to invade P, but they can easily compete with P anywhere P decides to try projecting itself.
Riachuelo was in some views a turning point. Also, remember that the entire Argentina was against war with Paraguay, in fact, there were a lot of rebellions, even desertion of soldiers (Desbandes). If somehow the Paraguayans can take advantage of these desertions, or to absorb the argentinian desertors, or change the tide of the battle in Riachuelo, they can take the whole Mesopotamia (Riachuelo was in Parana river, the winning side of Paraguay was over the Uruguay river, it was a 2 front approach) and start asking for surrender. Probably taunting Urquiza, the ruler of Entre Rios, or getting off the picture.
Paraguay went to war due to supporting Uruguayan Blancos against a coup (a coup backed by Argentina and Brazil), so one of the main things that change is the Uruguayan gov. A Paraguayan Misiones/Corrientes/Formosa (all argentinian provinces) its also realistic too.
unprincipled peter
Donor
Pio
Is Argentina still against the war when Paraguay annexes a huge chunk of Argentine territory, and settles in as a potent immediate next door neighbor (no mesopotamia to act as a buffer)? I'm guessing they were against the war for the sake of Uruguay. Once they start losing serious territory, the situation changes.
If all P wants is missiones (which arguably was Paraguayan to begin with), or even corrientes, probably doable. Settling in next door and making themselves a second major power to contend with, maybe not so doable.
However, if they do win the war, even if with minimal territorial gains, the results are: Paraguay is a big dog in the region, maybe even the big dog in the La Plata region. Brazil may simply accept it, and continue on their merry way, knowing it's long time dreams of controlling the north bank are now squashed. Or they may work toward militarization to regain whatever territories they lost. Argentina loses face and prestige in the La Plata region, perhaps control of the river. They're the big losers, and I doubt that sits well with them.
Stalemate, reletively few changes. P winning the war means massive shift of power dynamics, with A being the big loser. It's not too far fetched to say it could set the stage for a second war. Everything went fairly smoothly after the OTL war. No way that remains the case with P winning.
Is Argentina still against the war when Paraguay annexes a huge chunk of Argentine territory, and settles in as a potent immediate next door neighbor (no mesopotamia to act as a buffer)? I'm guessing they were against the war for the sake of Uruguay. Once they start losing serious territory, the situation changes.
If all P wants is missiones (which arguably was Paraguayan to begin with), or even corrientes, probably doable. Settling in next door and making themselves a second major power to contend with, maybe not so doable.
However, if they do win the war, even if with minimal territorial gains, the results are: Paraguay is a big dog in the region, maybe even the big dog in the La Plata region. Brazil may simply accept it, and continue on their merry way, knowing it's long time dreams of controlling the north bank are now squashed. Or they may work toward militarization to regain whatever territories they lost. Argentina loses face and prestige in the La Plata region, perhaps control of the river. They're the big losers, and I doubt that sits well with them.
Stalemate, reletively few changes. P winning the war means massive shift of power dynamics, with A being the big loser. It's not too far fetched to say it could set the stage for a second war. Everything went fairly smoothly after the OTL war. No way that remains the case with P winning.
Argentina != Buenos Aires
There was animosity between Buenos Aires (the province with the capital and the port) and the inner provinces, this could trigger another round between Unitarios and Federales (OTL Buenos Aires tried to split out of Argentina as a separate country). Some local argentinian leaders supported Paraguay, staging rebellions against Arg.
I can say that there could be some support when Arg loses territory, but not a full one.
But how do you think local governors, used to a large degree of autonomy will react when they realize Paraguay's political regime does not grant such a thing?
IMO, a Paraguayan victory which seizes Corrientes, let alone Entre Rios, will plant the seeds of a second war in the short term.
unprincipled peter
Donor
Can't say as I've ever heard of Buenos Aires looking to secede, and then being forcibly kept in. My impression is that it was always the other way around, with BA portenos looking to control the rest of the country.