AHC: Reverse Spanish and Portuguese exploration routes -

Castille-Spain goes south and round Africa to the east. Portugal tries the western route. Long-term results?

A few initial thoughts.

1) There should be no geographic impediment to this. Well before the fall of Granada, Castille had Atlantic ports at Palos and in Galicia. It had gotten to the Canaries also.

2) Spain's New World empire feature massive land conquests, Portugal's old world sphere of influence was more trading-posty and was less territorially extensive. Did this have more to do with their respective national characteristics, or with the possibilities offered by the areas they explored?

I would generally go with the latter explanation- The Aztecs were conquerable and the Indians, Chinese and Japanese were not.

However, differences in Spanish and Portuguese approaches and capabilities would probably still be felt.

In America, the Portuguese would be interested in Caribbean and then Mesoamerican and Andean gold. However, it may take the Portuguese longer and multiple tries to conquer Mexico and Peru. I also don't see them expanding as far beyond Mexico and Peru in masse. They probably never get up to Texas, California and New Mexico. Frenchmen or Englishmen get there first. Spain probably becomes the master of Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay, in addition to Brazil. Maybe Venezuela also.

In Africa, with their greater military might and population, I see the Spanish making Angola and Mozambique into larger colonies, and then they fill it in by seizing the Cape and the lands of the "pink-map" to have a coast to cost empire in southern Africa. And in addition to trading in tropical products, it won't be long before they start raising merino sheep and cattle in South Africa.

In India and Southeast Asia especially, but also in China, the Spanish may be more militarily aggressive. This could backfire on them, and they find they make such a nuisance of themselves that the Chinese just up and squash Spanish Macau. Aggression, overextension and bad luck might result in a successful Mughal expulsion of the Spaniards from India, although perhaps they retain a stronghold in Ceylon. They may end up setting up missions and sheep stations in western Australia as well.

Back in Europe, what does the boost in Eastern spice and luxury trade, but also the loss of precious metals, do to the finances of Spain, and the Habsburg imperium if Spain still joins it? What about Portugal getting inundated with precious metals, but *not* having Europe wide ambitions to support.

The Portuguese may blow much of their new-found wealth on Crusades, or even fighting the Spanish. The Spanish will still get plenty of wealth from the East Indian trade, so they will still be set for fighting endless wars to defeat Protestantism and the French.

The bigger question for European politics lies with other butterflies: do the Castile and Aragon still unify (which obviously effects the degree to which Castile gets involved in European wars, especially in Italy)? Do they still end up getting inherited by the Hapsburgs (which gives them connections with the HRE)? Does the Portuguese royal line still go extinct, leading to an Iberian Union? Since the Portuguese grand design and system of exploration really started in the early 1400s, all of these are potentially butterflyable.

As for colonial policies, I agree with you that Portugal will try and conquer/colonize in the Americas while Castile will find itself adopting similar policies to those of OTL Portugal in its Asian and African expansion. I also agree that Portugal will likely feel population pressures earlier than the Spanish did. I don't know enough about Portuguese colonial policy to know if they will see something similar to the level of control and censorship that the Spanish attempted (generally unsuccessfully) to implement in their New World colonies.

One of the reasons why Portugal got a head start on exploration is because it finished its Reconquista 1249, while Castile still had to contend with Granada until 1492. Only after Castile finished the Reconquista on the Mainland that they were able to send explorers out.

So, you'd need to have Portugal not cede Seville to Castile, and continue the Reconquista against Granada and/or to North Africa. And while this is happening, Castile would need to stop its Reconquista, decide that Aragon is a filthy rival, and start exploring a route to the East around Africa.

I think not going to India might actually be a good thing to Portugal in the long haul, the Portuguese lost a lot of men, ships and such during all those early 16th century wars and conflicts going on from Zanzibar to India. What India got Portugal? Lots of money from a brief while?

2) Spain's New World empire feature massive land conquests, Portugal's old world sphere of influence was more trading-posty and was less territorially extensive.

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That's because, due to the consequences of the Portuguese Reconquista leaving Portugal quite bereft of people, then the onrush of people to the new expeditions, Portugal was always lacking in manpower, it was their ability to project their men quick and far that allowed Portugal to punch above its weight.

Also, Brazil didn't have any unified kingdoms (the few big chiefdoms in the amazon died before or just after the Portuguese showed up), but many small tribes of nomads, so being trade-posty is the solution here.

PoorBoy said:

One of the reasons why Portugal got a head start on exploration is because it finished its Reconquista 1249, while Castile still had to contend with Granada until 1492. Only after Castile finished the Reconquista on the Mainland that they were able to send explorers out.

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Only after Castile finished the Reconquestia did they choose to send explorers out.

I make this point because if the rulers of Castile had decided that these voyages were more important than eradicating the last traces of a semi-independent Moorish presence in the peninsula, they were not in a military situation where doing so would have been costly.

Only after Castile finished the Reconquesta did they choose to send explorers out.

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not 100% true - they took over the Canaries before Granada.

Also, Granada was a fairly weak puppet state paying tribute to Castille for its last two centuries. It was that small half-moon shape since the 1200s, and Castille had already lifted Palos and Cadiz from them well before 1400.

Plus of course, whilst the Portuguese may have completed their Reconquista in the thirteenth century, they didn't start exploring in earnest until after the fall of Ceuta in 1415.

raharris1973 said:

Also, Granada was a fairly weak puppet state paying tribute to Castille for its last two centuries. It was that small half-moon shape since the 1200s, and Castille had already lifted Palos and Cadiz from them well before 1400.

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Precisely my point. If Castile had wanted to get in on the exploration/overseas exploitation game sooner, it most certainly could have - it had no need to deal with Grenada first as far as security went.

So it chose to wait except for the Canaries instead of having to wait as another poster suggested.

The portuguese were seafarers. They didnt head west to China because China was way too far away.

Ferdindand and Isabella ruled a land power, with little to no blue water sailing experience, which is why they believed Columbus' outrageous theory.

Could Aragon sail south? I suppose. But the Reconqista was a BIG thing, and I find it difgicult to see them engaging in major naval adventures before completing it.

Now, if Aragon had taken out Granada 50 or 100 years earlier, then you might see the 'Spanish' (whatever that means, as you have then likely butterflied away the marital union of Aragon and Castille), expanding south.

The portuguese were seafarers. They didnt head west to China because China was way too far away.

Ferdindand and Isabella ruled a land power, with little to no blue water sailing experience, which is why they believed Columbus' outrageous theory.

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So which nations were seafaring smart enough to not believe Columbus's theory?

Or was Spain the only one that dumb?

France - smart like Portugal or dumb like Spain?

England - smart like Portugal or dumb like Spain?

Denmark-Norway - smart like Portugal or dumb like Spain?