Catholic Sweden, Protestant (sort of) Poland?

If Barbara Radziwill had lived longer (surviving the supposed poisoning by Queen Bona) and given birth to a son or two by Sigismund II, I'm curious as to the future of both the PLC and Sweden - for instance, would Sigismund III of Sweden still be raised Catholic, and thus still enforce the Counter Reformation in Sweden with greater force? Or would his Vasa father insist on him rather being raised in the Reformed church?

Also, would an heir for Sigismund II mean a butterflying away of the Union of Lublin and the elective monarchy? Or would it still happen, simply in a modified format? And how would the rest of Catholic Europe react to a Protestant-tolerant country as one of their main bulwarks against the Turk and Russia?

I've bought a book about early rule of Sigismund II August that I have to finish yet. It looks like sort of Union was inevitable - The Lithuanians needed Polish support in wars with Muscovy and for Lithuanian boyars Polish system of sejm and sejmiks was very appealing. They wanted to have a say in state politics, finances and law. If Sigismund II August has an heir, the rule in Lithuania would stay hereditary, though in Poland the throne would be elective - but the natural candidate would be a son of previous king.

In regards of Barbara: I believe that the popular hypothesis in Polish historic environment is that she died of uterine cancer (certainly this era cosmetics made of lead and mercury compounds didn't help). If the cancer occurence was butterflied or at least delayed maybe she would conceive a son and heir to the king.

It's hard to predict what course would reformation in Poland bring. Sigismund II was a hands-off ruler in this matter, saying he was not a ruler of consciences of his subordinates. But nobody knows if his descendant wouldn't try to establish either national church in gallican way or even become an active protestant.

Regardless of which, I suspect his uncle, Duke Karl, will be successful in his attempt to oust him from the Swedish throne. It is easy to play the Swedish peasants' fear of continental serfdom against a "Polish" King and gain their support.

von Adler said:

Regardless of which, I suspect his uncle, Duke Karl, will be successful in his attempt to oust him from the Swedish throne. It is easy to play the Swedish peasants' fear of continental serfdom against a "Polish" King and gain their support.

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Except Sigismund III is as Swedish as Carl, born and raised - well technically Finnish due to his parents living there during the reign of King Erik, but Finland was part of Sweden. And Carl seemed rather ambiguous as to what to do once he'd deposed Sigismund considering the length of time between Carl's own accession and Sigismund's dethronement.

Yes, but once he is King of Poland, he will be spending his time there. Poland is larger, richer and demands more of a King's attention. And once the King has an entourage of Polish noblemen and starts appoint Poles to positions in Sweden, the Swedes will balk.

The delay was mostly since Duke Karl needed to secure support - the estates parliament demanded that Sigismun become protestant and return permanently to Sweden, or send his son to be raised as a protestant 1599. When Sigismund refused, it did elect Karl King in 1600 and he ruled as such from then, but was not crowned until 1607.

von Adler said:

Yes, but once he is King of Poland, he will be spending his time there. Poland is larger, richer and demands more of a King's attention. And once the King has an entourage of Polish noblemen and starts appoint Poles to positions in Sweden, the Swedes will balk.

The delay was mostly since Duke Karl needed to secure support - the estates parliament demanded that Sigismun become protestant and return permanently to Sweden, or send his son to be raised as a protestant 1599. When Sigismund refused, it did elect Karl King in 1600 and he ruled as such from then, but was not crowned until 1607.

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Except, Sigismund isn't going to become king of Poland if Barbara Radziwill pops out a son or two who survives long enough to produce heirs of his own. Ergo, he'll stay as just king of Sweden - i.e. Catholic king of a Lutheran country.

He will most likely convert in such a case. At least the estates parliament and Duke Karl will demand it sooner or later (or that he allows his son to eb raised a protestant).

von Adler said:

He will most likely convert in such a case. At least the estates parliament and Duke Karl will demand it sooner or later (or that he allows his son to eb raised a protestant).

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So, hopefully no Austrian queen for Sweden then. Somebody big, somebody German/Protestant to ensure that that happens? The Austrians would be more interested in sending that particular archduchess to Warsaw if they can, I should imagine.

Who might be a good candidate for both the queen of Sweden and the queen of Poland?