WI the German airforce does not try to take the VTOL route in the 50s/60s

In the late 50s the German Luftwaffe started to pour most of its development money into VTOL planes, which were to replace most of the conventional planes. There were some very interesting designs made by German firms like the Do 31 which was basically a jet-powered V-22 Osprey with superior abilities in almost every regard, but rather costly to operate and with no real role in Germany once the design was finished. Towards the end of the 60s the Luftwaffe abandoned the VTOL concept because the mass production and operating costs were considered to high and because the technology did not live up to the expectations.

The various projects had been shouldered (except the engines) almost exclusively by German firms, which was pretty much the last time for German war planes. Most of the firms involved produced only smaller civilian planes and/or concentrated on specialised parts or other products afterwards. Also the projects and their failure accelerated the concentration of the German aviation industry.

But the concentration on VTOL was hotly debated in the early Luftwaffe. The reasoning behind the concentration was accepted, as the Bundeswehr anticipated that in a conventional war most runways would be damaged shortly after it began. A number officers considered the VTOL concept as an unproven and too complicated technology though and wanted conventional designs with some rough field capacity instead. So what would be the results (both for the industry and the German airforce) if this conservative school had prevailed and instead of VAK 191B and EWR VJ 101 conventional designs had been demanded a decade earlier?

I don't believe that the reemerging German aerospace industry would have been able to compete against the growing dominance of American companies. It is unfortunate to be on the losing side.

Rolls Royce did a heck of a promotion effort on lift engines, and many bit. Saab went for dispersed basing in a different, more practical way. The Swedish aircraft industry still remains removed from the top of the heap. The lessons of runway denial are there, but not underlined.

I don't see how the Germans could compete against the British and French, especially since the Germans would have had to import most components from them, at least until they got back on their feet. I just don't envision a scenario in which Germany becomes a major aerospace producer in its own right. German companies might become major subcontractors for research, design, and components, but I don't see them doing all of that in house. Many designs that would come to dominate military aviation had their origins in the 1950s and 1960s, so when Germany is in the position to finally develop its own aircraft in the late 1960s or early 1970s there won't be much market share left for them.