Neutral Austria-Hungary in WWI
- Thread starter Ellie
- Start date
France vs Germany most likely. But even the. I could see Austria being dragged in
The Austro-Hungarians were really the on es who kicked the whole afair off. They invaded Serbia after the assassination of the heir to their throne Arch Duke Ferdinand and his wife. To have them neutral would mean a different war. Their empire may have lasted a big longer and take a more federalised form maybe along the lines proposed by Emperor Karl.
Really tough, especially with a post-1900 POD. I don't see the Germans risking a war with the Entente (even minus Britain) without Austria-Hungary on-board, and I don't see Austria-Hungary abandoning a Germany that's been attacked by the Entente (because that would leave them alone and friendless).
Besides, even if they somehow miraculously sit on the sidelines of a WWI-size conflict, they'll be too major a player for people not to be offering them bribes to join in. Look at initially neutral powers like Italy or Bulgaria, and the bribes they were offered by both sides. Austria-Hungary is a much more tempting partner, and so will be courted more heavily by both sides.
Besides, even if they somehow miraculously sit on the sidelines of a WWI-size conflict, they'll be too major a player for people not to be offering them bribes to join in. Look at initially neutral powers like Italy or Bulgaria, and the bribes they were offered by both sides. Austria-Hungary is a much more tempting partner, and so will be courted more heavily by both sides.
Nearly impossible post-1900, the alliance system all but guarantees neither Germany nor AH will remain neutral in case either ends up at war. You're going to need a change in German diplomacy following Bismark's death that maintains his focus on isolating France by courting Russia. Only way to get a neutral AH is by having them not ally Germany.
That of course then radically changes what World War I would look like.
That of course then radically changes what World War I would look like.
Perkeo
Banned
Why? Germany had everything they wanted from France, and France needs Russia to confront Germany. But Russia had no dispute with Germany, except Germany beeing the Austria's ally.
Perhaps Germany wants colonies or has a dispute with Britain over fleet restrictions?
Maybe, but if we're post 1915 the Anglo-Russian Treaty is expired and Tussia probobly won't join unless France gets involves.
Only thing I could see is if Franz Ferdinand manages to stay alive and after becoming Emperor starts making an effort to break the power of the Hungarian nobles in anticipation of the renegotiation of the Union which was coming around in 1917 if I recall correctly. The Hungarians in turn don't take things well and you end up with a civil war or close to it. At the same time as this is happening Germany whose getting desperate thinking it'll soon be too late to take on Russia, manages to both find a flimsy excuse to declare war and also a way to keep Britain out of the fighting. They decide its now or never and they start the trains moving.
Let say war does not happen in 1914.
By 1916, Armenia/Kurdistan regions really starts to boil over (was starting to anyway August 1914). The Russians by summer 1916 are feeling strong enough to push things with Turkey to try and get another slice of territory, formenting a revolt in Turkish Armenia and loading forces on the border prepared to intervene on the first good excuse.
Germans back the Turks (have to protect their investments there)
Austria/Hungary disinterested about Turkey, (most people there support Christian Armenians anyway).
France backs Russia because they have to.
England looks on as a neutral, not really wanting to back either side, but wants to maintain status quo (probably will back whomever starts losing).
So Germany/Turkey vs. France/Russia only.
By 1916, Armenia/Kurdistan regions really starts to boil over (was starting to anyway August 1914). The Russians by summer 1916 are feeling strong enough to push things with Turkey to try and get another slice of territory, formenting a revolt in Turkish Armenia and loading forces on the border prepared to intervene on the first good excuse.
Germans back the Turks (have to protect their investments there)
Austria/Hungary disinterested about Turkey, (most people there support Christian Armenians anyway).
France backs Russia because they have to.
England looks on as a neutral, not really wanting to back either side, but wants to maintain status quo (probably will back whomever starts losing).
So Germany/Turkey vs. France/Russia only.
hardly possible, 1905 Russia was knocked out by Japan, but Germany nevertheless didnt start war against France over Marocco - so it is very difficult to find casus belli for an european war without the Balkans (and than A-H. cant remain neutral, thats pretty sure).
Okay best bet: Balkans dont blow up in 1910s, Russia is getting stronger and stronger - it starts the Great Game 2.0. now with a growing industrial base and RR to India/Persia. France decides to back the Russian plans and lends lots of money as it still wants revenge for Alsace-Lorraine.
Franz Ferdinand gives the Slaves more autonomy and manages somehow to contain Serbia. He wants to establish strict neutrality (similar to Switzerland) because of the many ethnic groups ans potential internal conflicts.
British Empire starts sending troops to India/Persia but cant compete with Russia, so negotiates alliance with Germany. After several Russian blackmails, the British Empire is forced to allow the Russians grabbing large parts of Afghanistan and Persia. So Britain starts supporting Polish "terrorists" who fight agains russification policies in order to weaken the "Big Bad Russian Bear". The assassination of the Russian prime minister with weapons from England is casus belli, Russia immediatly starts invading India + Persia.
The German Empire is afraid of the growing Russian giant and decides to declare war as long as there is a chance to win the war in accordance with the british-german mutual defence agreement. Japan being a British ally, joins the war in order to prevent Russia taking revenge for the 1904/1905 war.
France on the other side wants to grab Alsace-Lorraine and attacks Germany, hoping for an easy win as Germany has to deploy most of the forces to the east. Have fun continuing
how about POD 1908: A-H annexes Bosnia as OTL, but really backs up Russia (as promied) in regard of opening the straits (matters like Serbian and or Montenegrin territorial gains, Bulgarian independence) are also settled in a way benefitting Russia. Russia forces Serbia to accept the status quo. As a result A-H and Russian relations become relaxed and even friendly over the next few years.
fast forward three years. 1911 Second Morocco Crisis - The better Austro Russian relations lead to French hardline stave against germany which in a Willie fit of temper DOWs on France over Morocco. Russia DOW on Germany (as per Russian French agreement). As Germany DOWs A-H pulls an Italian and declares "armed" neutrality.
Serbia + Greece + Bulgaria try an early "Balkans War" which brings the OE into the war on Germanys side (as they are considered to be Russian pawns by the OE). (Russia secretly offers concessions to A-H in the Balkans for continued neutrality)
BTW Japan starts to look greedy towards German (but also French) Posessions in the Pacific region...
Italy demands Libya (as OTL) but this time Germany forces the Ottomans to concede that territory in exchange of Germ support. as A-H "betrayed" GErmany Italy sides with Germany in hope of gaining concessions from the French.
Britain at the moment has no real interest in joining the war but financially supports the French side. Germany - being a "bit" more cautious vs Britaion (as A-H is not on its side) abandons the Idea of invading France through Belgium - instead it uses Schlieffens own "Ostaufmarschplan II (44 Divisions). (this pla was abandoned in 1912, but a 1911 war allows its use)
fast forward three years. 1911 Second Morocco Crisis - The better Austro Russian relations lead to French hardline stave against germany which in a Willie fit of temper DOWs on France over Morocco. Russia DOW on Germany (as per Russian French agreement). As Germany DOWs A-H pulls an Italian and declares "armed" neutrality.
Serbia + Greece + Bulgaria try an early "Balkans War" which brings the OE into the war on Germanys side (as they are considered to be Russian pawns by the OE). (Russia secretly offers concessions to A-H in the Balkans for continued neutrality)
BTW Japan starts to look greedy towards German (but also French) Posessions in the Pacific region...
Italy demands Libya (as OTL) but this time Germany forces the Ottomans to concede that territory in exchange of Germ support. as A-H "betrayed" GErmany Italy sides with Germany in hope of gaining concessions from the French.
Britain at the moment has no real interest in joining the war but financially supports the French side. Germany - being a "bit" more cautious vs Britaion (as A-H is not on its side) abandons the Idea of invading France through Belgium - instead it uses Schlieffens own "Ostaufmarschplan II (44 Divisions). (this pla was abandoned in 1912, but a 1911 war allows its use)
Perkeo
Banned
Marokko isn't exactly Germany's number one priority and even Willie's stupidity had is limits. OTOH a trigger-happy local commander could well give some 'help'.[/QUOTE]
Don't forget Italy's demands on A-H. IMO that's what brought them in the Entente in the first place. But if the leaders are smart, neither Italy nor A-H wants the showdown YET.
Seconded. Britain is anoyed by the German fleet program but has no excuse for a shooting war.
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